On July 2 (local time), the US Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) issued a solicitation for a five-year fixed-price contract to procure battery-grade lithium carbonate for the US National Defense Stockpile . According to the solicitation, the contract covers up to 35,641,599 lbs (approximately 16,167 metric tons) of battery-grade lithium carbonate, with a maximum contract value of US$300 million . Bids will be accepted until July 17 , and the contract will be awarded to the technically acceptable offer with the lowest evaluated price. The minimum guaranteed order value is US$1 million . The procurement schedule indicates that approximately 8.06 million lbs (around 3,657 tonnes) will be purchased during the first contract year, gradually declining to approximately 6.26 million lbs (around 2,839 tonnes) in the fifth year. The product must be powdered battery-grade lithium carbonate with a minimum purity of 99.5% , delivered to DLA warehouses located in New York, Nevada, Indiana, or Ohio . The procurement forms part of the US National Defense Stockpile program , aiming to strengthen strategic reserves of critical minerals and enhance supply chain resilience for national defense and critical industries. The five-year contract also underscores the US government's continued efforts to reinforce the security of its critical mineral supply chain. SMM will continue to monitor the tender process and subsequent contract awards. SMM Analysis Key Takeaway: This is more of a strategic policy signal than a demand shock for the lithium market. Rather than representing a sudden increase in commercial lithium demand, the tender demonstrates that the United States is moving from policy planning to the actual implementation of its critical mineral stockpiling strategy. The DLA Strategic Materials office is responsible for managing the US National Defense Stockpile, which serves national security purposes rather than commercial inventory management. Earlier this year, in March, the DLA had already issued a Request for Information (RFI) regarding the potential procurement of approximately 550 tonnes of lithium carbonate , indicating that lithium stockpiling has become part of a broader expansion of the US critical mineral reserve system rather than an isolated initiative. Limited Impact on Global Supply-Demand Fundamentals The announced procurement totals approximately 16,200 tonnes over five years, averaging roughly 3,200 tonnes per year (LCE) . Compared with global lithium consumption, this volume remains relatively small and is significantly outweighed by fluctuations in EV and energy storage demand. Consequently, the procurement is unlikely to materially alter the global supply-demand balance or fundamentally change lithium market dynamics in the near term. Instead, it should be viewed as a long-term strategic procurement program , with limited direct impact on spot market fundamentals. Procurement Strategy Prioritizes Supply Security Based on the announced ceiling value of US$300 million , the implied maximum procurement price is approximately US$18,600 per tonne , or roughly RMB 134,000 per tonne . While this figure does not represent the actual transaction price, it suggests that the US government places greater emphasis on security of supply, supplier qualification, and long-term delivery reliability , rather than simply sourcing at the lowest spot price available in Asia. Should the final contract prices exceed prevailing Asian market prices, the procurement could effectively create a policy premium for qualified suppliers. Supply Chain Implications Although the required product specification—battery-grade lithium carbonate with a purity of at least 99.5% —is relatively standard, participation requires suppliers to satisfy government procurement requirements, demonstrate reliable delivery capability, and comply with US procurement regulations. As a result, the tender is expected to favor North American producers , as well as qualified suppliers from Australia, South America, and other "friend-shoring" jurisdictions , rather than traditional spot-market traders. Market Implications SMM believes the impact can be assessed across three dimensions. 1. Limited Near-Term Price Impact The procurement schedule translates into roughly 200–300 tonnes per month , which is insignificant relative to China's monthly lithium salt production, cathode manufacturing, and downstream battery demand. Therefore, the procurement alone is unlikely to change the short-term direction of lithium carbonate prices. 2. Positive Sentiment Effect At current low lithium price levels, government stockpiling reinforces the narrative that lithium is evolving from a purely commercial commodity into a strategic resource . Although the direct demand impact is modest, the announcement could provide short-term support to market sentiment, particularly when oversupply expectations have already been largely priced in. 3. Long-Term Strategic Repricing If the United States continues supporting domestic and allied lithium supply through the DLA, the Defense Production Act, critical mineral incentives, government loans, and long-term procurement contracts, a parallel strategic procurement market may gradually emerge. Such demand may remain relatively small in volume but could command stronger pricing and place greater emphasis on supply security, ESG compliance, traceability, and geopolitical alignment. SMM View The significance of this announcement lies more in its policy implications than its immediate demand impact . In the short term, the procurement is unlikely to materially affect lithium carbonate supply-demand fundamentals or spot prices. However, over the longer term, the inclusion of lithium within the US national defense stockpile further highlights its strategic importance and may provide stronger policy support for North American and allied lithium projects. Lesley Yang New Energy Analyst Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)

This week, rare earth oxide and metal prices outside China remained largely stable amid sluggish trading, while price fluctuations in China had not yet been transmitted. Industrial developments were intensive: India’s Mecwin teamed up with Germany’s Fraunhofer to lay out the entire NdFeB industry chain; Sweden approved a 25-year lease for the North Kärr rare earth mine, and Namibia’s Kieshoehe project verified deep potential. Iluka obtained an Australian government loan to advance the Eneabba refinery, and ULVAC, driven by surging demand in Europe and the United States, planned to build a new melting furnace production line in Japan. U.S. and Australian enterprises achieved breakthroughs in high-purity rare earth refining and hard disk recycling technologies, while Canada and Japan actively promoted cooperation on the critical minerals supply chain.

[SMM Rare Earth Flash News] The Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) of the US Department of Defense provided a conditional loan commitment of $500 million to rare earth refiner Phoenix Tailings. The loan, together with private capital, totals approximately $1 billion and will be used to build a rare earth midstream processing facility named "Freedom Facility," which will process various raw materials from mines, recyclers, etc., to produce light and heavy rare earth metals needed for US industrial and defense systems. Phoenix Tailings currently operates two metallization facilities in Burlington, Massachusetts and Exeter, New Hampshire. The new facility is targeted for initial operations in 2028.

Zimbabwe's Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube revealed during the World Economic Forum in Dalian that the country is actively considering using its abundant mineral resources as collateral through "resource‑linked debt instruments" to finance road and railway construction projects in cooperation with China. This model aims to leverage future revenue from natural resources as loan guarantees to address the huge funding gap for infrastructure development. Ncube said Zimbabwe has held preliminary discussions with China Railway Group regarding such financing arrangements. He told reporters: "We have discussed resource‑linked debt instruments and hope to use them in the future to support infrastructure development, particularly in the road and railway sectors." Under the envisaged plan, Zimbabwe would assess project costs, toll revenue potential, and the return cycle of required resource investments to determine the scale of resource collateral and the repayment path. As Africa's largest lithium producer, Zimbabwe possesses rich mineral resources, but years of economic mismanagement and political instability have left its infrastructure severely lagging. The African Development Bank estimates that the country needs approximately US$34 billion to modernise its transport and logistics network. The proposed resource‑for‑infrastructure plan resembles the model of the US$7 billion Sicomines copper‑cobalt joint venture in the Democratic Republic of Congo with Chinese companies. As early as September 2025, Zimbabwe's President, during a meeting in Beijing with senior executives of China Railway Group, promoted a railway rehabilitation cooperation plan totalling US$533 million. The project is to be implemented by Chuantie International, a subsidiary of China Railway Group with extensive experience in African projects. The scope of work includes repair and reinforcement of existing lines and bridges, modernisation of signal systems, procurement of 17 locomotives and 209 freight wagons, construction of five new stations, and the key trunk line connecting Beitbridge and Harare – a strategic corridor leading directly to South Africa, which is vital to Zimbabwe's foreign trade. Currently, the project's financing method and formal signing date are still under final negotiation. Zimbabwe's railway network was built during the colonial era and carried up to 12 million tonnes of freight annually in the 1990s. However, decades of underinvestment, equipment obsolescence, and foreign exchange shortages have caused the railway infrastructure to deteriorate continuously. Current annual freight volume has fallen to less than 3 million tonnes – only 15% of its historical peak. Many lines are overgrown with weeds, and a large number of locomotives and rolling stock have been taken out of service, directly weakening the capacity to transport bulk commodities such as lithium, chrome ore, and coal to the ports of Mozambique and South Africa. Consequently, Chinese mining enterprises operating in Zimbabwe – including Tsingshan Holding Group, Sinosteel Corporation, and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt – all face export bottlenecks for their products. The decline of the railway system has forced a large volume of freight onto roads, leading to a surge in heavy trucks, which in turn exacerbates road congestion, traffic accidents, and pavement damage, forming a vicious cycle. In response, the National Railways of Zimbabwe has incorporated this railway rehabilitation into a broader modernisation framework and has engaged in cooperation with 11 private enterprises. Among them, South Africa's Grindrod, through its subsidiary Beitbridge‑Bulawayo Railway Company, has already deployed three locomotives and 150 freight wagons to alleviate current transport pressures. At the same time, Zimbabwe is exploring collaboration with the University of Zimbabwe to leverage the university's innovation centre for localised railway technology R&D and talent training, building capacity for long‑term operations. Analysts point out that if this railway rehabilitation is successfully implemented, it will not only fully restore Zimbabwe's deteriorated railway network, but also provide critical logistics support for the country's US$12 billion mining target, while further deepening the strategic presence of Chinese enterprises in Zimbabwe's mining and infrastructure sectors. According to market dynamics, in recent years – and especially since the beginning of this year – lithium ore shipments from Zimbabwe have been persistently delayed at ports, with insufficient inland transport capacity being one of the main bottlenecks hindering smooth cargo arrivals. As the relevant logistics system upgrades are put into effect, this situation is expected to be significantly alleviated, and the transport efficiency of lithium materials will be notably improved, thereby injecting solid momentum into the stabilisation of global lithium supply. Sources: Mining.com , Azure Track Rail, and SMM

[SMM Rare Earth Express] Australian mineral sands producer Iluka Resources announced it has secured a confirmed A$1.65 billion (approximately $1.15 billion) non-recourse loan from Export Finance Australia (EFA) to develop the Eneabba rare earth refinery in Western Australia, the country's first fully integrated rare earth refining facility. The project is now over 50% complete, with the first A$1.25 billion drawdown expected by the end of 2026, when construction is forecast to reach 75% and commissioning is planned to commence in mid-2027. Meanwhile, Iluka has signed a binding four-year offtake agreement with a major global automaker to supply magnetic rare earth oxides—including neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium—starting in 2028, covering approximately 10% (around 1,200 mt) of planned production.

Indonesia's EMAS reported its first-ever revenue of $2.6 million in Q1 2026 from initial gold sales in March, following the start of commercial production at its Pani Gold Mine in Gorontalo, while posting negative EBITDA of $1 million and a net loss of $10.9 million, which it called reasonable given the mine's early-stage ramp-up and loan-related financial costs.