According to market reports, European stainless steel alloy surcharges have seen a significant increase for April 2026. Surcharges for Grade 1.4301 (304) rose by approximately 3.6%, notably diverging from LME nickel prices, which actually declined by nearly 1% month-on-month. The primary catalyst behind this surge is the escalating price of ferrochrome, fueled by higher procurement costs, elevated energy prices, and the compounding financial impact of the CO2 tax under the CBAM, fully effective since January 1, 2026. This cost-push is most evident in chrome-heavy grades, with the surcharge for Grade 1.4016 (430) jumping by more than 5.4% compared to the previous month.

February 2026 proved to be a pivotal month of challenge and adjustment for the global stainless steel market. Driven by the compounding pressures of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), intensifying geopolitical trade friction, significantly tightened raw material quotas, and sudden supply chain disruptions, the market navigated a complex landscape.

SMM Nickel Market News on February 24: Macro and Market News: (1) On February 23, US media reported that the US government is considering imposing new tariffs on approximately six industries on the grounds of "national security." The proposed tariffs may cover large-scale batteries, cast iron and iron fittings, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, as well as power grid and telecommunications equipment. These new tariffs will be implemented separately from the recently announced global 15% tariff measures. (2) A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced: At the invitation of Premier Li Qiang of the State Council, German Chancellor Merz will pay an official visit to China from February 25 to 26. Spot Market: On February 24, the price range for SMM #1 refined nickel was 137,300-147,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of 142,500 yuan/mt, up 2,400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 8,300-9,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 8,900 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -400-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: On the first trading day after the Chinese New Year holiday, the nickel market got off to a good start. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2603) opened higher and continued to rise, showing strong performance. By the end of the morning session, it was quoted at 138,590 yuan/mt, up 1.77%. During the holiday, LME nickel prices rose slightly, and the SHFE nickel market saw a catch-up rally today. During the holiday, a landslide occurred at the IMIP industrial park in Indonesia, resulting in casualties and further intensifying market concerns over supply disruptions. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to break through the 140,000 yuan/mt level again, but upside potential remains constrained by high inventory.

【SMM Morning Brief Nickel 2.24】During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15 to February 23), the domestic SHFE nickel market was closed, while LME nickel prices showed a rebound. The nickel sulphate market was relatively quiet during the holiday, with purchasing and sales activities largely halted. On the production side, some producers maintained operations, while others suspended production for maintenance.

Review and Post-Holiday Outlook of the Nickel Intermediate Product Market During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday

I. Nickel Price Review During Chinese New Year During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15–23), domestic SHFE nickel was closed, while overseas LME nickel prices showed a rebound. Pre-holiday surge: Before the holiday, Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that it would lock the 2026 nickel ore RKAB mining quota at approximately 260 million mt. Boosted by this positive news, market sentiment turned bullish. On February 11, LME nickel once surged to $18,070/mt, with the LME nickel 3M contract closing at $17,880/mt that day, a single-day increase of 2.93%. Post-holiday pullback then rebound: After the Chinese New Year holiday began (after February 16), domestic SHFE nickel was closed, and the pre-holiday positive news was digested. During this period, the US dollar index strengthened slightly, putting pressure on LME nickel prices, which pulled back. On February 17, LME nickel closed at $16,830/mt, down 1.81% from the previous trading day. From February 18 to 20, influenced by a tailings landslide incident at Indonesia’s IMIP park, LME nickel prices rebounded noticeably but overall remained volatile below $18,000/mt. II. Key Macro Events and Industry Developments On February 18, a tailings dam landslide occurred at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), resulting in casualties. The affected area has currently suspended operations. On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the previous tariff policy of the Trump administration was illegal. In response, the Trump administration quickly invoked "Section 122" to announce a new 10% global tariff, which was further raised to 15% the following day. In terms of geopolitics, US-Iran negotiations have been volatile. Although progress was made in the February 17 talks, core disagreements remain, and the US continues to escalate military threats, increasing geopolitical uncertainty. III. Post-Holiday Outlook Supply side, due to fewer calendar days in February and the Chinese New Year holiday leading to partial shutdowns at some enterprises, production plans have been reduced. Refined nickel production in February is expected to decrease by about 5% MoM. Demand side, post-holiday, as traders and end-users resume production, market transactions are expected to gradually recover. Spot premiums for Jinchuan refined nickel are projected to remain high at 8,000–10,000 yuan/mt, while spot premiums/discounts for domestically produced electrodeposited nickel are expected to stay within the pre-holiday range of -400–400 yuan/mt, with relatively stable fluctuations. After the Chinese New Year holiday, nickel prices are expected to enter a phase of wide swings at elevated levels. On the downside, the 130,000 yuan/mt level for SHFE nickel shows strong resilience due to Indonesia's quota tightening policy; on the upside, the zone above 145,000 yuan/mt faces strong resistance from high inventory and weak demand. The core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract after the holiday is projected at 130,000-145,000 yuan/mt. Key factors to monitor include whether supply contraction expectations materialize as anticipated, as well as the pace of downstream work resumption and the strength of restocking demand.