According to customs data, the total import volume of lithium spodumene in China from January to February 2026 was approximately 1.39 million physical tonnes: January imports reached 832,000 physical tonnes, up nearly 6% month-on-month and 41% year-on-year, equivalent to about 84,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE); February imports stood at 558,000 physical tonnes, down 33% month-on-month and approximately 2% year-on-year, equivalent to about 50,000 tonnes of LCE. Overall, the arrival volume in January reached an exceptionally high level, mainly due to the tight supply of lithium salts in the fourth quarter of 2025, which drove strong production enthusiasm among domestic lithium spodumene smelters and consequently led to a high demand for lithium ore. In February, arrivals declined due to the Chinese New Year holiday and potential vessel delays. By country of origin, Australia saw a 17% month-on-month recovery in January arrivals, significantly rebounding, supported by improved shipments from November to December 2025. However, after entering January, at the beginning of the quarter, Australian miners adopted a wait-and-see attitude toward lithium prices for the new year, leading to lower shipments. Combined with the Chinese New Year factor in February, arrivals in February decreased by 23% month-on-month. Zimbabwe entered the rainy season after October last year, resulting in a slight decline in concentrate output. Coupled with adjustments to export tax rates and the accounting period at the beginning of the year, arrivals fell by 35% and 18% month-on-month in January and February, respectively. Nigeria has seen a continuous rise in arrivals since June 2025, maintaining high levels. South Africa performed notably well, with arrivals remaining above 100,000 physical tonnes for three consecutive months from December 2025 to February 2026. In contrast, Brazil saw persistently low arrivals in January and February this year, as certain mines had not yet resumed production from October to December last year. Additionally, according to screening and analysis using the SMM model, lithium spodumene imports in January corresponded to approximately 84,000 tonnes of LCE, with lithium concentrate amounting to 636,000 physical tonnes, accounting for 76%. In February, lithium spodumene imports corresponded to 50,000 tonnes of LCE, with lithium concentrate amounting to 438,000 physical tonnes, accounting for 79%.

Frontier Lithium announced that it has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Panasonic Energy and Mitsubishi Corporation to explore potential collaboration in developing the North American battery supply chain. Under the agreement, Panasonic Energy has expressed interest in procuring lithium hydroxide from the PAK Lithium Project in Ontario, Canada. The project, which is being advanced through a joint venture between Frontier and Mitsubishi, plans to develop an upstream lithium mine and mill as well as a downstream lithium conversion facility. The project is expected to begin producing approximately 20,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium salts annually starting in 2030.

Ahead of Q2, the tensions across China’s NEV supply chain had already become increasingly visible in February and March. On the one hand, battery output remained resilient, supported by OEM volume targets and the new-model cycle;

Although March traditionally marks a demand recovery period and represents the final deadline for "export rush" orders ahead of policy changes, leading to a significant MoM increase compared to February, the magnitude of this recovery is expected to be more limited than pre-holiday forecasts suggested.

[SMM Analysis] Pre-holiday lithium ore market stabilized with a wait-and-see sentiment; post-holiday supply-demand tug-of-war intertwines with macroeconomic factors.

On the eve of the Spring Festival holiday, the lithium hydroxide market showed signs of a moderate price rebound. According to SMM data, on February 13, lithium hydroxide was quoted in a range of 130,000 to 145,000 RMB/ton, with an average price of 137,500 RMB/ton, an increase of 5,000 RMB/ton from February 6 (the previous Friday). As of February 13, the average price for February was provisionally reported at 139,575 RMB/ton. From the supply side, the overall lithium hydroxide supply remained tight in February. Although upstream smelters' willingness to release inventory slightly increased due to fluctuations in lithium carbonate futures prices, the overall sentiment to hold firm on prices remained strong, with quotes generally maintained at or above 140,000 RMB/ton. Pre-holiday macroeconomic policy expectations boosted sentiment in the lithium market. Coupled with the fact that few trading days remain in February, the pattern for the monthly average price has been largely set. Consequently, on the demand side, some material manufacturers increased their inquiries before the holiday to secure raw materials for post-holiday production. However, due to relatively sufficient earlier stockpiling and individual leading ternary material enterprises entering maintenance phases, the raw material shortage situation eased somewhat in the short term. Downstream companies showed limited acceptance of high raw material prices, with procurement intentions largely centered around the monthly average price. Overall, market transactions were still dominated by a tug-of-war between quoted prices and psychological price expectations, with actual trading volumes remaining quite limited. During the Spring Festival holiday, the market operated stably overall, with trading activity cooling down significantly. Affected by the hazardous chemical properties of lithium hydroxide, transportation came to a virtual standstill, and the market entered a seasonal quiet period. On the macro front, on the eve of the Spring Festival, the Chinese government announced the implementation of a zero-tariff policy for 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic relations, effective May 1st. It also promotes the signing of agreements on economic partnership for common development to expand market access for African products. This move will further deepen China-Africa economic and trade cooperation. In the long term, it is expected to broaden import channels for resources, including critical minerals, providing more solid resource support for China's new energy industry chain (such as battery raw materials). Meanwhile, significant movements also occurred in the international market. The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling that certain tariff policies from the Trump administration were illegal drove a broad uptick in overseas markets. It is expected that this trend will continue to reinforce domestic market confidence after the holiday. However, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting revealed significant divergence among policymakers regarding the future path of interest rates, which could exacerbate global capital market volatility and introduce uncertainty for the post-holiday market. Looking ahead to the post-holiday market: On the supply side, due to fewer production days and planned maintenance at some lithium salt plants, February's lithium hydroxide output is expected to decrease by more than 10% compared to January. On the demand side, as material manufacturers gradually resume production after the holiday, raw material procurement demand is expected to be gradually released, and market trading activity may pick up. However, the pace of the demand recovery still faces certain variables. On one hand, changes in the order structure of downstream battery cell manufacturers and the progress of new production line integration may affect the actual raw material procurement rhythm of material manufacturers. On the other hand, the price trends of upstream lithium ore and lithium carbonate, as well as the upcoming second-quarter contract negotiations, will also disturb the cost transmission and market expectations for lithium hydroxide, thereby exacerbating market uncertainty. Overall, the current lithium hydroxide market is in a phase of stabilizing before the holiday and gathering momentum afterward. The tug-of-war between supply and demand intensifies, intertwined with the influence of macroeconomic policies and the external environment. In the short term, prices are expected to remain volatile and range-bound. Subsequent trends will require close attention to downstream production start-up rates and upstream cost changes.