Lithium carbonate production slightly declined this week, mainly due to maintenance on production lines at some spodumene-based enterprises, while production from other raw material sources remained stable with a slight increase. In terms of market transactions and inventory changes: upstream lithium chemical plants saw a slight slowdown in spot order shipments, downstream players and traders showed weakened purchase willingness, and combined with the successive commencement of long-term contract deliveries, inventory exhibited a slight destocking trend this week. On the downstream material plants side, as prices rose significantly, spot order purchase willingness remained persistently weak, with consumption still primarily relying on earlier inventory and long-term contract and customer-supplied materials delivered at the beginning of the month. On the trader side, due to sluggish downstream purchases, inventory continued to accumulate.

Raw material side, spot lithium carbonate prices continued to rise this week, driven by supply-side disruptions that continued to strengthen tighter Q2 expectations and significant position increases in far-month contracts. Nickel salt prices edged up, while the cobalt salt market remained lackluster and basically stable.

After the holiday, LCO market prices remained basically stable. Influenced by the continuous rise in upstream lithium carbonate prices, quotes saw minor follow-on adjustments, with overall fluctuations limited in range. Demand side, battery cell manufacturers continued to digest raw material inventory, and willingness to restock improved somewhat, but actual procurement remained cautious. Most market participants held a wait-and-see sentiment, with transactions mainly focused on executing previously established orders. LCO prices are expected to continue consolidating within a stable range in the short term, with subsequent focus needed on changes in downstream enterprise orders and restocking pace.

Today, SMM battery-grade spot lithium carbonate price rose significantly compared to the previous working day. Futures side, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened high today at 191,500 yuan/mt, briefly pulled back to 191,000 yuan/mt after the opening before quickly rallying, stabilizing above the 193,000 yuan/mt level in the morning session. Around midday, bulls continuously increased open interest, driving prices to accelerate upward. In the afternoon session, prices fluctuated at highs with an upward bias, further surging to 199,600 yuan/mt near the close, ultimately settling at 199,400 yuan/mt, up 7.31%, with open interest increasing by 21,281 lots.

Spot lithium carbonate prices fluctuated upward this week, with the price center further rising. The futures market performed strongly, with the most-traded LC2609 contract price range rising from 173,400-184,800 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 182,500-189,500 yuan/mt, up about 5% WoW, with open interest increasing significantly and bulls actively entering the market. Market transactions remained sluggish, with the psychological price level gap between upstream and downstream further widening. On the upstream lithium chemical plant side, quotes stayed high, willingness to sell spot orders was low, and the sentiment to hold prices firm was evident. On the downstream material plants side, purchases were mainly just-in-time procurement, with limited acceptance of high prices, and psychological purchase price levels concentrated around 170,000-175,000 yuan/mt, with only a few enterprises with rigid restocking needs willing to accept prices around 180,000 yuan/mt. Overall, market inquiries and transactions were relatively sluggish, presenting a stalemate pattern of "upstream holding prices firm and holding back from selling, downstream waiting and watching." Supply side, bullish and bearish factors were intertwined, with short-term disruptions coexisting with medium-term expectations. Bullish factors: continued disruptions from Jiangxi mine license renewals; Middle East geopolitical fluctuations pushing up diesel import costs, with some Australian mines' Q1 quarterly reports confirming cost increases; political instability in Mali raising market concerns over West African ore supply; spodumene concentrates prices continuing to strengthen, reinforcing the cost-support logic for non-integrated lithium chemical plants. Bearish factors: Zimbabwe Huayou announced successful shipment of lithium sulfate, potentially easing some short-term supply anxiety; April domestic lithium carbonate production pace remained generally stable, with salt lake operations maintaining steady production ramp-up; entering May, although Zimbabwe lithium concentrates exports remained restricted, relevant enterprises' raw material inventory could still ensure normal production for the month, with total May production expected to edge up about 3% MoM. Demand side expectations were positive, but actual boost effects still needed verification. Looking ahead, spot lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern in the short term. Supply side, the actual execution progress of Zimbabwe export quotas and the timing of Jiangxi mine license renewal shutdowns remain key variables; demand side, focus should be on May new energy auto sales data realization and the pace of LFP plant capacity expansion boosting raw material demand. Against the backdrop of unresolved supply-side constraints, cost support, and demand expectations resonating, lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend in Q2.

LCO market prices were largely stable this week. Influenced by the narrow-range sideways movement of upstream lithium carbonate prices, LCO quotes saw minor follow-on adjustments, with overall fluctuations remaining limited. Demand side, battery cell manufacturers continued to draw down raw material inventory, and willingness to restock increased somewhat, though actual procurement remained cautious. Most market participants adopted a wait-and-see stance, with transactions mainly concentrated on orders on hand executed according to established plans. LCO prices are expected to continue consolidating within a stable range in the short term, and close attention should be paid to changes in orders from downstream enterprises and their restocking pace going forward.