SMM, May 20: During the session, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,430 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the range of 16,395-16,430 yuan/mt, then dipped slightly during mid-session to a low of 16,370 yuan/mt. Prices subsequently fluctuated upward, touching a high of 16,540 yuan/mt near the close, and ultimately settled at 16,530 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick with a gain of 40 yuan/mt, or 0.24%. Fundamentals side, the momentum of lead ingot social inventory buildup gradually slowed down after the delivery date, and overall operating rates at secondary lead producers remained low, providing some fundamental support. However, bearish factors were also prominent at this stage, as end-use demand recovery at downstream end-users remained sluggish with an overall subdued procurement atmosphere. Additionally, major smelters successively lowered their scrap battery purchase prices, weakening raw material cost support for lead prices and further suppressing upside room. Considering multiple market factors, the current tug-of-war between longs and shorts was relatively balanced, and lead prices are expected to maintain a slightly weak consolidation trend in the short term. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM May 20 update: Overnight, LME lead opened high at $1,983/mt, fluctuating downward overall, gradually declining during the session to a low of $1,961/mt, and finally closed at $1,961.5/mt, posting a shaven-head bearish candle, down $19.5/mt or 0.98%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened high at 16,480 yuan/mt, then came under pressure to fluctuate downward after the open, hitting a session low of 16,395 yuan/mt. The decline narrowed slightly toward the close, finishing at 16,410 yuan/mt, posting a shaven-head bearish candle, down 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%. Overnight, the non-ferrous metals sector was overall in the doldrums, with SHFE lead weakening in tandem with LME lead. China's fundamentals: the pressure from lead ingot social inventory accumulation eased somewhat, and secondary lead enterprises maintained low operating rates, providing some support for lead prices. However, on the other hand, both primary and secondary lead smelters successively lowered scrap battery purchase prices, weakening cost-side support for lead prices, while downstream consumption remained sluggish, putting pressure on lead prices. Overall, bullish and bearish factors are currently intertwined in the lead market, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened high at $1,983/mt, fluctuating downward overall, gradually declining during the session to a low of $1,961/mt, and finally closing at $1,961.5/mt, posting a shaven-head bearish candlestick, down $19.5/mt or 0.98%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened high at 16,480 yuan/mt, came under pressure and fluctuated downward after the opening, hitting a low of 16,395 yuan/mt during the session, with losses narrowing slightly toward the close, and finally closing at 16,410 yuan/mt, posting a shaven-head bearish candlestick, down 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%. On the macro front: Trump: Iran has limited time, and the US may take action against Iran again. Vance: Significant progress has been made in US-Iran negotiations, but the US has also prepared a "Plan B." Mediators believed that US-Iran negotiations made little progress, with Iran insisting on its core demands unchanged. Google launched the Gemini 3.5-series models. NATO set a deadline: if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened by early July, it plans to deploy forces for escort operations. Sources: Indonesia plans to tighten national controls on commodity exports. Russian President Putin arrived in Beijing by special aircraft. According to the CSRC website: Yangtze Memory Technologies initiated IPO guidance. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, SHFE lead continued to consolidate weakly. Additionally, as supplies flowed back into the market after delivery, suppliers increased their quotations. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises purchased on dips as needed, and spot market trading activity improved relatively. On the secondary lead front, smelters held prices firm on shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt above SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis, while tax-exclusive prices were lower, and downstream enterprises selectively purchased. Inventory: On May 19, LME lead inventory decreased by 50 mt to 264,200 mt. On May 18, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions pulled back MoM. Lead price forecast for today: Overnight, the non-ferrous metals sector was overall in the doldrums, with SHFE lead and LME lead weakening in tandem. Domestic fundamentals, the pressure from lead ingot social inventory accumulation eased somewhat, and coupled with secondary lead enterprise operating rates remaining at low levels, this provided some support for lead prices. However, on the other hand, both primary and secondary smelters successively lowered scrap battery purchase prices, weakening cost-side support for lead prices, and downstream consumption remained sluggish, putting pressure on lead prices. Overall, bullish and bearish factors are currently intertwined in the lead market, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

SMM, May 19: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,480 yuan/mt during the session. SHFE lead prices edged up slightly at the beginning of the session before pulling back, dipping to a low of 16,410 yuan/mt. Prices then rebounded and moved sideways within the 16,445-16,470 yuan/mt range. Near the close, prices edged up slightly, ultimately settling at 16,480 yuan/mt, recording a bearish candlestick with a gain of 5 yuan/mt, or 0.03%. This week, production cuts and shutdowns at secondary lead smelters due to insufficient raw materials gradually improved, but the industry's overall operating level remained low. In addition, arrivals of imported lead decreased, and overall market supply tightened. Downstream consumption demand remained weak. The market currently maintained a pattern of weakening on both the supply and demand sides, and lead prices are expected to continue moving sideways in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, May 18: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,429 yuan/mt during the session. From the early to mid-session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the range of 16,410-16,470 yuan/mt. Near the end of the session, prices edged up, touching a high of 16,490 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,475 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, down 35 yuan/mt or 0.21%. After the delivery of lead ingots, the pressure of social inventory buildup gradually eased. On the supply side, primary lead enterprise production edged up last week, while secondary lead smelting operating rates declined slightly, presenting mixed factors on the supply end. The off-season trend in downstream consumption continued, with demand remaining weak. SHFE lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM May 18 update: Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2026 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,570 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated downward, hitting a low of 16,405 yuan/mt. From mid-session to the close, prices rebounded slightly, ultimately closing at 16,440 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%. Last Friday, LME lead opened at $2,013.5/mt, briefly edging up to $2,014/mt before entering a downward fluctuation, hitting a low of $1,973/mt. Near the close, market sentiment recovered somewhat, and LME lead prices edged up, ultimately closing at $1,984/mt, down $28/mt or 1.39%. Last week, primary lead production edged up, while secondary lead smelters saw both short-term production cuts/shutdowns and resumptions coexisting. On imported lead, the import window closed, and the inflow of imported lead into China decreased. The supply side overall presented an intertwined pattern of bullish and bearish factors. The battery consumption off-season continued in May, with weak end-use demand providing limited support for lead prices. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.