Futures: Last Friday, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,890.5/mt, drifted lower during the Asian session, and after dipping to $1,881.0/mt, consolidated in a narrow range at low levels. It then gradually rebounded during the European session, and surged late in the session to a high of $1,896.5/mt, finally closing at $1,895.5/mt, up 0.26%. Open interest increased by 3,720 lots to 183,969 lots on the day. On Friday night, the SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,840 yuan/mt in the night session. After briefly touching a high of 15,855 yuan/mt early on, it quickly fell, bottoming at 15,740 yuan/mt, then consolidated and rebounded. In the latter half, it traded in the 15,820-15,840 yuan/mt range, and finally closed at 15,805 yuan/mt, down 0.22%. Night-session open interest decreased by 1,185 lots to 37,951 lots. It should be noted that the 2608 contract was in the delivery period. Prices and open interest of near-month contracts were susceptible to disruptions from delivery and contract rollover, and the subsequent trend of the 2609 contract still required close tracking of the pace of fund position shifting. Overall, after SHFE lead retreated from highs, it had yet to show clear rebound momentum. On the macro front: The situation in the Middle East continued to escalate. Iran said US forces had been expelled and were not allowed to enter the strait; Syrian sources said Yemen’s Houthi forces launched an attack on a US drone; and the Israel Defense Forces launched strikes on southern Lebanon over the weekend. Rising geopolitical tensions could lift crude oil and inflation expectations, and affect risk appetite for nonferrous metals via the US dollar and expectations for US Fed policy. US President Trump demanded a significant reduction in the scale of US–South Korea joint military exercises. Today, focus was on the impact of Middle East developments and crude oil price changes on macro sentiment. PBOC: In the first seven months, cumulative growth in aggregate financing to the real economy totaled 22.25 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 10.38 trillion yuan. National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): Starting from 24:00 on August 14, China’s retail price caps for gasoline and diesel were lowered by 230 yuan/mt and 220 yuan/mt, respectively. Zhongwei Semiconductor: Net profit in 2026 H1 was 172 million yuan, up 98.48% YoY. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead reversed and pulled back, and suppliers’ willingness to sell declined somewhat, while quotations for warrant cargoes also decreased. In addition, EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters were quoted in line with the market, with mainstream producing areas quoted at parity against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, and discounted cargoes decreased somewhat. For secondary lead, smelters’ willingness to quote declined, market circulating cargoes decreased, and some smelters held back from selling at low prices; secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed. Approaching the weekend, some rigid-demand restocking increased somewhat, but overall wait-and-see sentiment remained strong, and spot market transactions saw limited improvement. Inventory: On August 14, LME lead inventory fell by 1,700 mt, or 0.41%, to 412,675 mt; according to SMM, as of August 13, SMM five-location social inventory of lead ingots stood at 75,200 mt, up 2,400 mt from August 10. Today’s Lead Price Forecast: This week marks the delivery period for the SHFE lead 2608 contract. Ahead of delivery, lead ingots saw an on-schedule inventory buildup, dragging lead prices lower. However, it is worth noting that maintenance among primary lead enterprises increased in mid-to-late August, mainly among delivery brand enterprises, which may support a rebound in lead prices. Meanwhile, consumption in the lead-acid battery market was mediocre, while just-in-time procurement demand from downstream enterprises was moderate, which can be regarded as a neutral factor. In summary, SMM expects lead prices to rebound after probing lows.

This week, consumption in the lead-acid battery market remained weak, and the battery wholesale market showed divergent trends. Sales promotions continued in some regions, while in others they ended due to higher lead prices, and battery selling prices rebounded somewhat. Among them, the wholesale price of the main 48V20Ah e-bike battery model was quoted at 370-400 yuan/set. Consumption in the automotive battery market was also weak; producers generally produced based on sales, and some enterprises gradually resumed production after high-temperature shutdowns ended. Lead prices rose this week, with SHFE lead briefly touching the 16,000 yuan/mt mark; downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, procurement was mainly based on rigid demand, and spot lead trading was thin. Toward the weekend, lead prices pulled back somewhat; some downstream enterprises restocked on dips for rigid demand, and market trading improved slightly.

Next week, macro data will mainly include China's July total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, China's July value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size YoY, and the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ended August 1, among others. In addition, the July PPI YoY growth released this week narrowed to 4.7%, and market expectations for rate hikes by the US Fed within the year cooled somewhat. Next week, close attention will need to be paid to the minutes of the US Fed's monetary policy meeting to further observe its subsequent monetary policy direction. For LME lead, *LME lead inventories fell for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of 39,200 mt, providing some support for lead prices. Meanwhile, LME lead Cash-3M remained at a discount, with the discount narrowing slightly this week to -$43.56/mt, indicating that ex-China spot demand was still relatively weak, which constrained further gains in lead prices. In addition, Middle East peace talks still faced significant uncertainty, while expectations for ex-China economic recovery continued. Lead prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs, and LME lead will trade at $1,880-1,930/mt next week. For SHFE lead, next week will be the delivery period for the SHFE lead 2608 contract. Before delivery, lead ingot inventories are expected to build as scheduled, dragging lead prices lower. However, it is worth noting that maintenance will increase at primary lead enterprises in mid-to-late August, mainly at delivery brand enterprises, and market supply is expected to tighten. Meanwhile, consumption in the lead-acid battery market was mediocre, and downstream enterprises' just-in-time procurement demand was moderate, which can be seen as a neutral factor. Lead prices are expected to rebound after testing lows, with SHFE lead trading in the range of 15,750-16,150 yuan/mt. Spot Lead Price Forecast: 15,550-15,850 yuan/mt. Consumption side, as downstream enterprises' high-temperature holidays end, some enterprises will resume normal production, and regular procurement demand is expected to rebound, easing the pressure from lead ingot inventory buildup after delivery to some extent. Supply side, both increases and decreases are expected to coexist. Maintenance at primary lead enterprises will bring a certain reduction in supply, and with smelters holding prices firm when selling, spot lead discounts will widen only to a limited extent. Meanwhile, as losses at secondary lead enterprises gradually narrow, production resumption expectations will strengthen, and market supply may increase somewhat; secondary refined lead is expected to continue trading at a discount.

According to available information, the SMM weekly composite operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 62.91% in the week of August 7–13, 2026, up 1.77 percentage points WoW. Recently, some medium-sized and large lead-acid battery enterprises ended their high-temperature holidays, and production gradually resumed, driving a rebound in the operating rate that week. In mid-August, end-use consumption in the lead-acid battery market still showed no significant improvement; producers were still mainly producing based on sales, and the operating rates of some enterprises that had ended their high-temperature holidays had not yet recovered to full-capacity levels. Next week, as the high-temperature holiday factor further subsides and working days increase at some enterprises, production is expected to continue recovering, and the weekly composite operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises is expected to maintain its uptrend.

SMM, August 14: This week, secondary refined lead premiums/discounts widened first and then narrowed. Mid-week, spot order discounts against the SMM #1 lead average price temporarily widened to 75-100 yuan/mt; on Friday, lead prices pulled back, smelters held back from selling, and discounts narrowed to 0-50 yuan/mt. Downstream finished product inventories were elevated, end-use demand was weak, and overall market trading was sluggish. During the week, the rise in lead prices drove a marginal narrowing of smelting losses. The composite weekly profit/loss of SMM-scale enterprises averaged -362 yuan/mt. However, reluctance to sell from the recycling side kept waste lead-acid battery prices firm, limiting room for smelters to narrow losses. Looking ahead to next week, lead prices are expected to weaken. If waste battery prices do not decline significantly in tandem, smelters' losses will widen again, while secondary refined lead spot order discounts may continue to narrow.

SMM, August 13: Prices in the waste lead-acid battery market held steady today. Some smelters continued to raise purchase quotes, with the waste e-bike lead-acid battery purchase price raised by 20-100 yuan/mt, while adjustments for waste automotive lead-acid battery (white shell) and black shell varied. Recycling traders had already completed price adjustments following smelters over the previous two days. Today, recycling quotes in Hebei, Shandong, Sichuan, Fujian, and Northeast China, among other regions, remained unchanged, and the market as a whole showed relatively strong wait-and-see sentiment. Purchases on the recycling side were moderate; suppliers showed weak willingness to sell, and they mainly held back from selling and took a wait-and-see stance. A survey showed that although some smelters continued to raise purchase prices today, recycling traders had not yet followed the increase, mainly waiting to see whether smelters would adjust prices further, or waiting until prices gradually stabilized before making adjustments. Scrap battery prices are expected to remain stable with a wait-and-see sentiment in the short term. If some smelters continue to raise purchase quotes, e-bike battery prices still have some upside room; if smelters stabilize their pace of price adjustments, recycling-side quotes may hold at current levels.