SMM July 22: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,880/mt, drifting higher during Asian trading hours. Entering the European session, it rose to a high of $1,890/mt before weakening due to increased bearish positions, giving up all gains to hit a low of $1,867/mt, and finally settled at $1,868/mt, down 0.48%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened lower with a gap at 15,820 yuan/mt. After briefly touching a high of 15,880 yuan/mt in early trading, it drifted lower. As bears added positions, SHFE lead hit a low of 15,700 yuan/mt and finally settled at 15,715 yuan/mt, down 1.07%. Demand side, the off-season consumption in the lead-acid battery market persists. Downstream enterprises continue to purchase as needed. As some enterprises have expectations of holidays, the subsequent purchasing intensity for lead ingots will further decline. Supply side, secondary lead enterprises maintain low operating rates, with limited circulating supplies in the market, while primary lead supply is relatively ample. The spot market is expected to continue trading at a discount. Additionally, high uncertainty in the Middle East conflict has raised energy and shipping costs, becoming one of the factors affecting lead prices.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,880/mt, drifting higher during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it tested a high of $1,890/mt before weakening as bears added positions, giving back all gains to dip to $1,867/mt, and finally closing at $1,868/mt, down 0.48%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened lower with a gap at 15,820 yuan/mt, dipped slightly to a high of 15,880 yuan/mt before drifting lower, with bears adding positions to push SHFE lead down to 15,700 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 15,715 yuan/mt, down 1.07%. On the macro front: Trump: Iran wants to meet but we are not interested; will strike the Harzand region in Iran (where nuclear facilities are reportedly located) very hard; if the Houthis blockade the Red Sea, the US will "take action". Iran's military struck a US airbase in Bahrain, saying that if the US attacks Iran's nuclear facilities, all US and allied interests in the region will become targets. The 10% temporary tariff is about to expire, US Trade Representative previews new tariffs will soon fill in; according to the UK Financial Times: Trump is about to impose new tariffs on dozens of countries as soon as this week. China's MIIT lithium battery and similar products standard working group: will hold discussions on 10 industry standards for solid-state lithium batteries. The A-share STAR 50 Index surged over 10%, hitting a new high for the year in its biggest single-day gain. Spot Fundamentals: SHFE lead continued to move sideways, with suppliers selling as needed, though there were few quotations in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai region. Additionally, EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters were ample and generally quoted at discounts, with mainstream production areas offering at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, smelters showed modest enthusiasm for shipments, with limited circulating supply in the market; some secondary refined lead quotations were at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead. Downstream enterprises remained cautiously on the sidelines, digesting inventories during production, with some waiting for new monthly long-term contract execution and only a small amount of just-in-time procurement, leading to sluggish market transactions. Inventory: On July 21, LME lead inventory decreased by 2,025 mt to 449,750 mt; as of July 20, total social inventory of SMM lead ingots across five regions fell by 8,000 mt MoM from July 16. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Demand side, the lead-acid battery market remained in its consumption off-season, with downstream enterprises maintaining purchases as needed; as some enterprises have holiday expectations, lead ingot purchasing strength is expected to weaken further. Supply side, secondary lead enterprises maintained low operating rates with limited supply circulating in the market, while primary lead supply was relatively ample; spot market transactions are expected to remain skewed towards discounts. In addition, the high uncertainty of the Middle East conflict has driven up energy and shipping costs, which has become one of the factors affecting lead prices.

Next week, key macroeconomic data will include US June housing starts, building permits, industrial production, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which will influence market expectations for the Fed's rate path. Meanwhile, the ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflict continues to escalate, with shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz falling to about one-tenth of pre-war levels. Geopolitical risks have pushed oil prices higher, raising supply-chain cost expectations. LME lead, within the week LME lead inventory surged by 160,000 mt, sparking risk-off sentiment and driving LME lead to its lowest level in over a year. As lead prices fell, the LME lead Cash-3M spread remained in a deep contango, with the latest quote at -$43.83/mt. Moreover, heightened uncertainty over the Middle East conflict, along with rising energy and shipping costs, may become another factor affecting lead prices. Once the inventory buildup news is digested by the market, lead prices are expected to get a breather. Next week, LME lead is expected to trade at $1,850-1,905/mt. SHFE lead, visible lead ingot inventories first increased then declined this week due to delivery factors and downstream purchasing. After the bearish news of overseas inventory buildup ran its course, market attention in China shifted to the production dynamics of secondary lead enterprises and downstream purchasing trends. If lead ingot inventories continue to destock, lead prices are expected to return to 16,000 yuan/mt. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 15,600-16,150 yuan/mt next week. Spot lead price forecast: 15,650-15,950 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the lead-acid battery market remains in the off-season, with downstream enterprises continuing to purchase as needed. However, as lead ingots re-enter the circulation market after delivery, downstream cargo pick-up is expected to increase. Supply side, secondary lead enterprises maintain low operating rates, with limited supply circulating in the market, while primary lead supply is relatively ample. The spot market is expected to continue trading at a discount.

SMM July 10: This week, secondary refined lead supply was tight, off-season demand weighed on trading, premiums against the SMM #1 lead average price consolidated around parity, and actual transactions were mostly at a discount of 20-30 yuan/mt. Secondary lead production continued to incur losses. As of July 10, 2026, the theoretical consolidated profit and loss for large-scale secondary lead enterprises was -277 yuan/mt, and for medium- and small-scale secondary lead enterprises, it was -464 yuan/mt. Smelter operating rates are currently low, with production cuts in many regions; downstream demand is weak, scrap battery costs remain firm, and losses are unlikely to improve in the short term. Additionally, suppliers, under pressure from losses, kept offers firm. SMM expects spot order shipment prices for secondary refined lead to maintain parity or a small premium against the SMM #1 lead average price next week.

SMM, July 10: This week, the supply of secondary crude lead continued to tighten. Smelters in multiple regions voluntarily cut production, weighed down by raw material shortages and losses on production. Insufficient supply of scrap batteries led most suppliers to hold back from selling, leaving only a small volume of circulating cargo in the market. The battery downstream was in the traditional consumption off-season, with manufacturers only making just-in-time procurement. Price negotiations between buyers and sellers remained difficult, and spot cargo transactions were sluggish. Next week, the raw material shortage is unlikely to ease, and with extreme weather forcing production halts at some smelters, the supply of secondary crude lead will further decline, supporting prices that are more likely to rise than fall.

[2026 Lead Concentrate Production, Imports, and TCs: A Comprehensive Review and H2 Market Outlook]In H1 2026, intensified geopolitical games and rising trade policy uncertainties posed multiple challenges to the lead-zinc industry chain, including structural adjustments in ore supply, persistently declining TCs, and smelting costs under pressure. Lead concentrates remained in deficit, and the profit center shifted to by-products on the smelting side.