SMM May 22 update: SHFE lead fluctuated with initial weakness followed by strength this week, and secondary refined lead quotes continuously switched between premiums and discounts following futures fluctuations. At the beginning of the week, lead prices declined, but smelter quotes remained relatively firm, mainly hovering around parity to slight premiums, with very few market transactions. Mid-week, futures consolidated on the weak side, and smelters held prices firm for shipments, with quotes stable at parity to a premium of 50 yuan/mt, with only rigid demand making sporadic purchases. Later in the week, lead prices rebounded, smelter shipment sentiment diverged, and quotes gradually shifted to discounts of 0-50 yuan/mt, with some still retaining slight premiums. Downstream players mostly digested inventories after restocking on dips earlier, purchase willingness cooled, and overall spot transactions remained sluggish throughout the week. SMM #1 lead ingot spot prices were initially weak then strengthened this week, but downstream battery plants maintained strong wait-and-see sentiment, spot transactions were poor, and smelter loss pressure further expanded. As of May 14, large enterprises posted losses of 290 yuan/mt, and small and medium-sized enterprises posted losses of 496 yuan/mt. As scrap battery raw material inventory pulled back WoW this week, smelter restocking expectations warmed up, and cost-side upward expectations strengthened. Smelting profits are expected to remain under pressure next week, with the loss pattern continuing. In addition, some smelters plan to resume production next week, secondary refined lead supply is set to increase, and spot premiums are expected to converge.

Next week, key macro data releases will include China's April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, China's April industrial value-added output of enterprises above designated size YoY, the final reading of the US May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and the final reading of the US May one-year inflation rate expectations. In addition, the Fed Chairman transition has been completed, and the monetary policy meeting minutes are set to be released next week. LME lead side, the ex-China mine and smelting sector is going through a turbulent period. Following the accident at a lead-zinc smelter in Kazakhstan in early May, energy supply conflicts in Peru escalated this week. As Peru is a major lead-zinc mining region, this tightened supply expectations on the mine side, supporting lead prices. Meanwhile, spot lead supply tensions in Southeast Asia remained prominent. On one hand, LME lead inventory stood as high as 265,000 mt, mainly consisting of low-grade lead ingots; on the other hand, countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia faced significant lead ingot supply gaps, with spot premiums rising again, mainly due to the scarcity of high-grade lead ingot resources. Overall, LME lead is expected to continue to hold up well. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,975-2,035/mt next week. SHFE lead side, the issue of rising visible inventory of lead ingots caused by short-term deliveries will ease as deliveries conclude. However, the biggest bearish factors currently come from the lead consumption off-season, while secondary lead smelters have shown signs of production resumptions, putting lead prices under pressure. Additionally, the lead ingot import window fully closed this week, and given the regional tight supply of lead ingots outside China, attention should be paid to expectations of the lead ingot export window opening in H2. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,350-16,750 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,300-16,600 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the off-season trend in the lead-acid battery market intensified, with downstream enterprises having limited rigid demand and being relatively cautious in procurement. Supply side, production cuts at secondary lead enterprises improved somewhat, with factories in some regions gradually resuming production. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to the materialization of new maintenance at primary lead enterprises. Spot lead is expected to still trade at a slight discount next week (against SMM #1 lead).

[SMM Lead Market News] It was learned that since April, affected by environmental protection rectification and extended shipping cycles, lead smelters in Southeast Asia have experienced production cuts and shutdowns. Lead ingot supply has gradually tightened, spot premiums have risen, and high-grade lead ingots have even become difficult to source. Currently, the SMM Malaysia lead ingot 99.99-99.995% CIF premium was quoted at $150-170/mt, with a few suppliers once again making exploratory offers at a premium of $200/mt, though no transactions have been concluded at this price.

SMM May 15 News: This week, the mainstream tax-exclusive transaction price of domestic ordinary secondary crude lead was concentrated around 15,250 yuan/mt. Affected by environmental protection checks in some regions, a small number of smelters implemented production cuts or suspensions, and spot supply in the market tightened somewhat. Downstream refined lead and alloy enterprises saw weak end-user orders, with overall subdued purchase willingness for secondary crude lead raw materials. Currently, the import window for crude lead is closed, and most cargoes arriving at ports are carryover orders from last month. Looking ahead to next week, spot secondary crude lead circulation is expected to remain tight. Combined with insufficient downstream purchase enthusiasm, the market supply-demand landscape is expected to maintain a tight balance.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,987/mt and fluctuated downward to a low of $1,972.5/mt during the Asian session. Driven by concerns over ore supply disruptions due to energy shortages in Peru, LME lead rallied firmly during the European session, touching a high of $1,998/mt near the close and ultimately settling at $1,997.5/mt, up 0.45%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,595 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,605 yuan/mt at the start, then fluctuated downward to a low of 16,520 yuan/mt before moving sideways near the close, ultimately settling at 16,525 yuan/mt, down 0.33%, marking a fifth consecutive decline. On the macro front: A US appeals court stayed an unfavorable ruling on Trump's 10% global tariffs. India raised the basic customs duty on gold and silver imports from 5% to 10%. Indian banks proactively paid customs duties to resume gold and silver imports, completing customs clearance of 9 mt of gold and 34 mt of silver in May. Russia cut its 2026 crude oil production forecast by 14.2 million mt to 511 million mt, and its export forecast by 4.5 million mt to 237.2 million mt. The US overall CPI annual rate for April was 3.8%, exceeding the expected 3.7% and hitting the highest level since May 2023, with the energy index contributing over 40% of the overall increase. : As the SHFE lead price center shifted further downward, suppliers sold along with the market, with some lowering discounts for shipments. However, affected by the crackdown on "invoice-based tax arbitrage," some trading companies had their invoicing quotas reduced, restricting lead market trading. Primary lead from smelters in the form of cargoes self-picked up from production site was increasingly directed toward downstream enterprises. Additionally, as secondary lead losses widened, smelters showed strong hold back from selling sentiment, with notably fewer spot order quotations. Mainstream production areas quoted secondary refined lead at premiums of +0~+50 yuan/mt over SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, with inquiry enthusiasm rising compared to the previous day. However, given the weak lead price trend, apart from some downstream enterprises that purchased as needed, most preferred to wait and see. Inventory: On May 12, LME lead inventory decreased by 375 mt to 265,550 mt. As of May 11, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 2,200 mt WoW. Lead price forecast for today: The SHFE lead 2605 contract will enter delivery this week. Suppliers continued to transfer lead ingots to delivery warehouses, and lead ingot social inventory maintained its upward trend, surpassing the 70,000 mt mark again for the first time in nearly two months. Recently, the lead-acid battery market remained in off-season mode, and primary lead supply was stable to rising. In particular, following the sharp rally in SHFE lead last week, downstream enterprises were reluctant to purchase at high prices, and the spread between futures and spot prices widened to above 200 yuan/mt. Suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouse increased. Lead ingot social inventory is expected to continue rising before delivery is completed, with notable resistance for lead prices. Data Source Statement: All data other than publicly available information is SMM processed data based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM May 13: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,987/mt and fluctuated downward during the Asian session to a low of $1,972.5/mt. Due to concerns over ore supply triggered by energy shortages in Peru, LME lead rallied firmly during the European session, touching a high of $1,998/mt near the close and ultimately settling at $1,997.5/mt, up 0.45%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,595 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,605 yuan/mt at the start of the session, then fluctuated downward to a low of 16,520 yuan/mt. It moved sideways near the close and ultimately settled at 16,525 yuan/mt, down 0.33%, marking five consecutive bearish sessions. This week, the SHFE lead 2605 contract will enter delivery. Suppliers continued to ship lead ingots to delivery warehouses, and lead ingot social inventory maintained its upward trend, breaking through the 70,000 mt mark again for the first time in nearly two months. Recently, the lead-acid battery market remained in the off-season, and primary lead supply was stable to rising. In particular, after SHFE lead surged significantly last week, downstream enterprises were reluctant to purchase at high prices, and the spread between futures and spot prices widened to above 200 yuan/mt. Suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses increased. It is expected that lead ingot social inventory will maintain an upward trend before delivery is completed, with obvious resistance for lead prices. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.