Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract drifted lower throughout the session on August 19. It opened at around $1,888/mt, moved sideways in a narrow $1,880-1,890/mt range early in the session, then gradually declined, hitting an intraday low of $1,871.0/mt. It saw a slight rebound near the close and settled at $1,886.0/mt, down $2.0/mt or 0.11% from the prior trading day. The trading range for the day was $1,871.0-1,891.5/mt, with a range of $20.5/mt. Trading volume was 6,780 lots. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2610 contract fell initially but then rose in the night session. After opening, it quickly dipped to 15,870 yuan/mt, then rebounded in choppy trade, touching a session high of 15,975 yuan/mt. It closed around 15,970 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt or 0.19% from the prior session’s settlement price. Night session volume was 23,831 lots, and open interest rose 1,506 lots to 81,480 lots from the prior day. Macro: On the international front, Middle East tensions escalated further, with Trump announcing the harshest ever economic sanctions on Iran, calling them “unprecedented economic war and isolation.” Fed minutes showed growing hawkishness, with most officials still expecting inflation to gradually decline but acknowledging persistent upside risks. US federal government debt topped $40 trillion. Driven by a sharp drop in the US dollar index and safe-haven demand, spot gold rose above $4,500 to a new high since June, while silver surged over 5%. The three major US stock indices closed slightly higher, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.5%. Trump suspended the 50% tariff on Canada for three days, and the US-Canada trade deal plans to halve steel and aluminum tariffs to 25%. On the domestic front, the “15th Five-Year Plan” for Universal Medical Security was released. The NDRC held a meeting on the “Six Networks” major project coordination mechanism to improve infrastructure collaboration. The China Gold Association issued a stern statement, saying that China’s gold industry chain is complete and has sufficient resilience to withstand external risks. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead continued to consolidate at highs. SMM 1# lead price rose 25 yuan/mt. Suppliers sold as prices moved, with supply of circulating cargoes in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai increasing slightly. Quotations from mainstream producing areas were at discounts of 20 to premiums of 50 yuan/mt to the SMM 1# lead average price ex-works. The north-south market divergence was notable. Smelters in the north saw falling inventory and firm quotations, with spot discounts narrowing and turning into premiums. Downstream purchases in south China were scattered and lacking persistence, with discount-based deals dominating and thin trading. Secondary lead smelters sold as prices moved, but supply of circulating cargoes was limited. Secondary refined lead quotations were at discounts of 100 to 0 yuan/mt to the SMM 1# lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises showed moderate enquiry enthusiasm, making just-in-time procurement only, and spot market trading was weak. Inventory: As of August 18, LME lead inventory stood at 418,575 mt, an increase of 9,585 mt from the previous trading day; SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory totaled 65,490 mt, down 74 mt from the previous trading day. Lead price forecast for today: Yesterday, LME lead inventory surged by 9,585 mt to 418,600 mt, with high overseas visible inventory weighing on LME; in China's spot market, suppliers of primary lead and secondary lead sold at prevailing market prices, but with a clear north-south divergence in trading, and supply of secondary lead in the market was limited; recently, downstream lead-acid battery consumption has improved, but lead ingot procurement demand remained mainly just-in-time. Overall, lead prices are expected to continue consolidating at highs in the near term.

[Lead Smelter Updates] It is learned that a medium-sized primary lead smelter in north-east China plans to enter routine maintenance from tomorrow. The maintenance will last one month, during which its primary lead electrolysis line will be completely shut down, affecting lead production by approximately 9,000 mt.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract drifted higher throughout the day on August 18, opening at $1885.5/mt. It moved sideways in a range of $1883-1890/mt during Asian hours, briefly surged toward the end of European hours to touch a high of $1896.5/mt, then subsequently pulled back, ultimately closing at $1888.0/mt, up $3.0/mt or 0.16% from the previous trading session. The daily trading range was $1883.0-1896.5/mt, with a swing of $13.5/mt. The daily candlestick was a small bullish candlestick with a long upper shadow. Trading volume was 4,729 lots, open interest was 178,938 lots, and intraday open interest fell sharply by 5,863 lots. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2610 contract night session opened at 15,965 yuan/mt. After the open, it quickly surged to a high of 16,025 yuan/mt, subsequently consolidated lower to dip to 15,905 yuan/mt, then rebounded to trade around 15,955 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt or 0.31% from the previous session’s closing price. Night session trading volume was 33,162 lots, open interest was 79,286 lots, down 892 lots from the previous session. On the macro front: The US-Iran conflict continued to escalate, Trump said there were no negotiations with Iran, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remained fully effective, the UAE suspended trade with Iran, and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East continued to intensify. The US dollar index traded sideways above 99 for nearly two weeks, and the 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose to 4.75%, a new high since January 2025. On the domestic front, a super-strong El Niño event could form this winter, likely the strongest on record, potentially disrupting power supply and smelter operations. The A-share market was mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.19% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.56%, as combined turnover on the two exchanges reached 2.4 trillion yuan. Housing provident fund policy adjustments now allow withdrawals for home decoration and property fee payments, with no income thresholds for rental withdrawals, benefiting post-cyclical real estate consumption. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead pulled back slightly, continuing to consolidate at highs. The SMM 1# lead price fell 25 yuan/mt. Suppliers' selling sentiment became more divided, with some holding firm on quotes or suspending sales due to limited inventory, while others sold at prevailing prices. Quotations from major producing regions were at discounts of 20 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price, delivered basis. Secondary lead smelters showed only modest selling interest, tradable material in the market was limited, and secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price, delivered basis. Downstream enterprises had limited restocking needs, and inquiry interest declined from yesterday, leaving spot market trade somewhat sluggish. Although lead-acid battery consumption relatively improved, demand for lead ingot purchases remained limited. Inventory: As of August 18, LME lead inventory was 409,000 mt, down 1,975 mt from the previous trading day; total SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory was 65,564 mt, down 325 mt from the previous week. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Downstream enterprises had limited rigid demand, inquiry activity declined compared to the previous day, and spot market trading was sluggish; lead-acid battery consumption improved somewhat, but procurement demand for lead ingots remained limited, providing insufficient upward momentum for lead prices. Supply side, suppliers showed divergent attitudes toward shipments: some maintained firm offers or suspended shipments due to limited supply, while others sold at market prices; secondary lead smelters had moderate enthusiasm for shipments, leading to limited circulating sources in the market; coupled with declines in both LME and domestic lead inventories, this provided some support for prices. Overall, lead prices maintained a fluctuating trend.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,885.5/mt. After the open, it drifted higher, hitting an early-session high of $1,891.0/mt. It then stayed high and moved sideways in a narrow range, with a low of $1,885.0/mt, and finally closed at $1,885/mt, up $5.5/mt from the previous trading day, a gain of 0.29%. The trading range was $1,885.0–$1,891.0/mt, with a spread of $6.0/mt. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2610 contract opened at 15,880 yuan/mt. After the open, it quickly fell to 15,845 yuan/mt and then rebounded to 15,938 yuan/mt. After moving sideways in a narrow range, it moved sideways in a narrow range at 15,865–15,880 yuan/mt in late trading, and finally closed at 15,875 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day’s closing price, a decline of 0.47%. Macro: The 60-day deadline for the US-Iran peace agreement officially expired, and Iran ruled out the possibility of an extension; US President Trump said the US is not currently seeking to extend the memorandum of understanding with Iran, and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East intensified. As recent US economic data were weak, the market’s bets on further rate hikes by the US Fed continued to cool. China, the UK, and Japan all reduced their holdings of US Treasuries in June; the US 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.31%, a 19-year high. Li Qiang chaired the 12th plenary meeting of the State Council, stressing the need to thoroughly implement the CPC Central Committee’s decisions and deployments and strive to accomplish the annual targets and tasks for economic and social development. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) deployed efforts to accelerate the rollout of new-type policy-based financial instruments in 2026 and increase support for private investment projects. China’s National Bureau of Statistics: In July, the value-added industrial output of enterprises above designated size grew by 4.5% YoY in real terms; MoM, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential housing in first-tier cities shifted from a 0.1% increase in the previous month to flat. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead continued to consolidate on a strong note, and today was the delivery day for the SHFE lead 2608 contract, with relatively few quotations for warrant cargoes. In addition, EXW cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters differed between the northern and southern markets; in mainstream producing areas, cargoes were quoted at premiums of 0–50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. For secondary lead, smelters sold in line with the market, and discounts in quotations changed relatively little WoW; secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 100–0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. After returning from the weekend, downstream enterprises gradually made purchases as needed, inquiries increased, and procurement was mainly EXW cargoes self-picked up from production site; spot market trading activity improved somewhat. Inventory: On August 17, LME lead inventory fell by 1,700 mt, or 0.41%, to 410,975 mt; according to SMM, as of August 17, total social inventory of lead ingots across five locations reached 78,600 mt, up 5,800 mt from August 10 and up 3,400 mt from August 13. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Demand side, as downstream enterprises ended their high-temperature holidays, some enterprises resumed normal production, and routine procurement demand rebounded, easing post-delivery inventory buildup pressure for lead ingots to some extent. Supply side saw both increases and decreases: maintenance at primary lead enterprises was set to reduce supply to a certain extent; coupled with smelters holding prices firm while selling, the widening of spot lead discounts was limited. As losses at secondary lead enterprises improved somewhat, some enterprises resumed production, increasing market circulating supply, and secondary refined lead maintained trading at relatively larger discounts. Overall, lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.

SMM News, August 17: During the session, the SHFE lead 2608 contract for the current month closed at 15,800 yuan/mt, with a settlement price of 15,825 yuan/mt, open interest of 3,095 lots, delivery volume of 15,475 mt, and warrant inventory of 65,864 mt. The SHFE lead 2608 contract completed delivery smoothly. The SHFE lead 2609 contract posted a trading volume of 41,201 lots and open interest of 35,793 lots; the SHFE lead 2610 contract posted a trading volume of 49,825 lots and open interest of 75,440 lots. The most-traded SHFE lead contract officially rolled over to the 2610 contract. During the session, the SHFE lead 2609 contract drifted higher, opening at 15,825 yuan/mt and quickly surging to 15,940 yuan/mt after the open, before pulling back to 15,865 yuan/mt. It then moved sideways in the 15,875-15,910 yuan/mt range, and rebounded again in late afternoon trading to 15,920 yuan/mt, staying high and moving sideways in a narrow range. It finally closed at 15,920 yuan/mt, up 95 yuan/mt from the previous trading day’s closing price, a gain of 0.60%, with the daily K-line posting a small bullish candlestick. Trading volume was 41,201 lots, while open interest fell by 3,343 lots to 35,793 lots. With lead prices strengthening and delivery of the 2608 contract, quotations for warrant cargo were relatively limited. In some regions, smelter inventories declined and maintenance was approaching, tightening circulating supply and strengthening the willingness to hold prices firm, while some smelters in south China actively sold, and the divergence between shipments in the south and north widened somewhat. Secondary lead smelters shipped in line with the market, with quotations little changed WoW. Downstream players returned after the weekend and purchased as needed; enquiry and transaction activity improved, and some enterprises reported better battery orders, with support from rigid demand strengthening somewhat. In the short term, supply tightens in some regions and improved downstream rigid demand will support prices, but high lead prices still suppress purchase willingness. Supply divergence caused by active shipments from south China smelters may limit upside room. SHFE lead is expected to consolidate at highs in the short term; attention should be paid to downstream actual purchase strength and smelter inventory changes.

[Secondary Lead Production Update] On August 14, 2026, a sudden flash flood and mudslide occurred in Changxing County, Zhejiang. According to an SMM survey, production at local secondary lead smelters had not yet been affected by the disaster; the enterprise’s new equipment was still in the commissioning period and was expected to achieve stable production only after 1–2 months.