[Secondary Lead Production Update] It is reported that a secondary lead smelter in the Philippines (with a monthly production of approximately 1 kt) has been shut down for about 2 months due to tight raw material supply and the need for technological transformation, and the date to resume production is yet to be determined.

[Secondary Lead Production Update] According to SMM, a secondary lead smelter in Northwest China has completed its maintenance work. Due to the 5-day Eid al-Adha holiday (May 27-31), the enterprise's production resumption has been delayed. It is expected to officially start producing lead in early June, with planned daily refined lead production of 150-200 mt.

SMM May 22 update: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract held up well overall, with prices declining first before rising. During the Asian session, LME lead opened at $1,980/mt, briefly edged higher before pulling back. Entering the European session, it began to fluctuate upward, accelerating its rally toward the close, touching a high of $2,006.5/mt and ultimately closing at $2,005/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up $27.5/mt or 1.39%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,700 yuan/mt, briefly dipping to 16,670 yuan/mt at the start before strengthening in a fluctuating manner, touching a high of 16,745 yuan/mt. It slightly narrowed gains toward the close, ultimately settling at 16,740 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 95 yuan/mt or 0.57%. Market side this week, some smelters in east China chose to hold back from selling and stockpile due to weak lead prices, while enterprises in other regions saw slight WoW destocking in finished product inventories. Dragged by inventory buildup in east China, overall industry inventory edged up slightly. Lead ingot social inventory gradually pulled back after the delivery period ended, but the destocking pace remained slow. As some smelters resumed production, China's secondary lead production edged up slightly WoW, to some extent suppressing upside room for lead prices. Sentiment side, concentrated short-covering yesterday drove a rebound in lead prices, and lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract held up well overall, with prices declining first before rising. During the Asian session, LME lead opened at $1,980/mt, briefly pulled back after a slight initial rally, then entered the European session and began to fluctuate upward. It accelerated in late trading, touching a high of $2,006.5/mt, and finally closed at $2,005/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up $27.5/mt or 1.39%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,700 yuan/mt, briefly dipped to 16,670 yuan/mt in early trading, then strengthened in a fluctuating manner, touching a high of 16,745 yuan/mt. Gains narrowed slightly toward the end, finally closing at 16,740 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 95 yuan/mt or 0.57%. On the macro front: Al Arabiya TV denied Iranian media reports citing it regarding a "US-Iran deal." Rubio: Establishing a strait toll station is completely unacceptable. Iran's Revolutionary Guards: 31 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. Senior Iranian officials denied reports on keeping enriched uranium in the country. Foreign media reported: Turkey nearly cleared its US Treasury holdings to support its currency. BOE Technology Group A: As of now, the company has not yet conducted business cooperation with NVIDIA. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday and today, non-ferrous metals generally rose, and SHFE lead also rebounded strongly. Suppliers became more active in shipments, with primary lead from major producing areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, with a few regions at premiums of 150-200 yuan/mt ex-factory. Meanwhile, secondary lead smelters saw improved shipment sentiment as lead prices stopped falling and rebounded, with some quotations shifting to discounts. Secondary refined lead from major producing areas was quoted at discounts of 25-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis, with a few maintaining premiums of 50 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises generally shifted to a wait-and-see stance, especially after dip-buying in previous days, with most downstream enterprises focused on digesting inventories, and spot market transactions notably weakened. Inventory: On May 21, LME lead inventory remained flat at 286,475 mt; SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory was flat compared to the 18th. Lead price forecast for today: Looking at the market this week, some smelters in east China chose to hold back from selling and stockpile due to weak lead prices, while enterprises in other regions saw slight destocking in finished product inventories WoW. Dragged by inventory buildup in east China, overall industry inventory edged up. Lead ingot social inventory gradually pulled back after delivery ended, but the destocking pace remained slow. As some smelters resumed production, China's secondary lead production rose slightly MoM, which to some extent suppressed upside room for lead prices. On the sentiment side, concentrated short-covering yesterday drove a lead price rebound, and lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

SMM May 18 update: Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2026 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,570 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated downward, hitting a low of 16,405 yuan/mt. From mid-session to the close, prices rebounded slightly, ultimately closing at 16,440 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%. Last Friday, LME lead opened at $2,013.5/mt, briefly edging up to $2,014/mt before entering a downward fluctuation, hitting a low of $1,973/mt. Near the close, market sentiment recovered somewhat, and LME lead prices edged up, ultimately closing at $1,984/mt, down $28/mt or 1.39%. Last week, primary lead production edged up, while secondary lead smelters saw both short-term production cuts/shutdowns and resumptions coexisting. On imported lead, the import window closed, and the inflow of imported lead into China decreased. The supply side overall presented an intertwined pattern of bullish and bearish factors. The battery consumption off-season continued in May, with weak end-use demand providing limited support for lead prices. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

Futures: Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2026 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,570 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated downward, hitting a low of 16,405 yuan/mt. From mid-session to the close, prices rebounded slightly, ultimately closing at 16,440 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%. Last Friday, LME lead opened at $2,013.5/mt, briefly edging up to $2,014/mt before entering a downward fluctuation, hitting a low of $1,973/mt. Near the close, market sentiment recovered somewhat, and LME lead prices edged up, ultimately closing at $1,984/mt, down $28/mt or 1.39%. On the macro front: Israeli media: Netanyahu spoke with Trump, discussing the possibility of resuming military operations against Iran. Trump issued a military threat to Iran and was set to discuss military action options on Tuesday. US media: Iran plans to charge transit fees for submarine fiber-optic cables through the Strait of Hormuz. UK media: UK Prime Minister Starmer intended to resign from his position. ChangXin Technology: H1 revenue is expected to reach 110-120 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 50-57 billion yuan. China successfully launched the 9th batch of networking satellites for the Qianfan constellation. Wuxi will establish a large-scale "Token factory." The Shenzhou-23 mission plans to launch in the coming days. Spot fundamentals: Last Friday, SHFE lead reversed and pulled back. In the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai region, spot discounts narrowed slightly, with some suppliers quoted at premiums of +20~+30 yuan/mt, while cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelter production sites saw relatively reduced circulation. Some suppliers suspended shipments. Meanwhile, secondary lead smelters in east China successively resumed production, and secondary lead circulation relatively increased. Smelters' sentiment to hold prices firm eased, with secondary refined lead quoted at parity with SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis. However, downstream enterprises had limited rigid demand. In particular, as lead prices pulled back, risk-averse sentiment in the market was strong, and spot market transactions remained sluggish. Inventory: On May 15, LME lead inventory decreased by 250 mt to 265,000 mt. On May 14, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 6,100 mt WoW. Lead price forecast for today: Last week, primary lead production edged up slightly, while secondary lead smelters saw both short-term production cuts/shutdowns and production resumptions coexisting. Import lead side, the import window was closed, and the inflow of imported lead into China decreased. The supply side overall presented an intertwined pattern of bullish and bearish factors. The battery consumption off-season continued in May, with weak end-use demand providing limited support for lead prices. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.