Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,004/mt, moved sideways during the Asian session with a low of $2,001.5/mt; LME lead fluctuated upward after entering the European session, reaching a high of $2,017/mt, and finally closed at $2,012/mt, up 0.4%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,590 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,620 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session before fluctuating downward, hitting a low of 16,530 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 16,535 yuan/mt, down 0.33%. On the macro front: India restricted duty-free gold imports; Ukraine reported the largest Russian airstrike since the conflict began; Israel and Lebanon held a new round of negotiations in the US. OPEC+ reportedly plans to continue increasing production, targeting the restoration of all production cuts by the end of September. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: the oil price curve is expected to decline within six months; Iran has exhausted its oil storage capacity and will be forced to halt production. China's Ministry of Commerce: China is willing to work with the US to continuously expand the cooperation list. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China is willing to work with the US to translate the new positioning of China-US relations into actions moving in the same direction. The PBOC: a 300 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation with a 6-month tenor will be conducted on May 15. : Driven by the LME lead rally, SHFE lead rebounded relatively, and suppliers actively made shipments while lowering quoted premiums. Additionally, primary lead smelter supplies were ample, with mainstream production areas quoted at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. Secondary lead side, losses remained prominent, and smelters held prices firm while shipping, with secondary refined lead quoted at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. Meanwhile, the lead-acid battery market remained in an off-season state, with limited just-in-time procurement from downstream enterprises. After lead prices rebounded, inquiry enthusiasm weakened, with buyers only maintaining just-in-time procurement, and spot market transactions turned sluggish. Inventory: On May 14, LME lead inventory decreased by 50 mt to 265,250 mt; SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 6,100 mt WoW. Lead price forecast for today: Today is the delivery day. Suppliers continued to transfer lead ingots to delivery warehouses, and lead ingot social inventory continued to accumulate. Notably, the domestic market has recently underperformed the overseas market for lead prices. The lead ingot import window has entered a closed state this week. Meanwhile, the supply gap for high-grade lead ingots in Southeast Asia remained significant, with spot cargoes maintaining high premiums. In H2, the potential opening of the lead ingot export window and its impact on domestic lead price trends may be worth watching. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,996.5/mt, briefly touching a low of $1,995.5/mt during the Asian session. LME lead continued to rise firmly after entering the European session, reaching a high of $2,016/mt near the close, and ultimately settled at $2,004/mt, up 0.33%, refreshing a nearly 4-month high. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,655 yuan/mt, then moved sideways, with a low of 16,625 yuan/mt and a high of 16,675 yuan/mt during the session, ultimately settling at 16,640 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. On the macro front: US Fed's Collins: If inflation does not ease, rate hikes may be needed. US April PPI surged 1.4% MoM and 6% YoY, both the largest increases since 2022. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth expectations from 1.38 million bpd to 1.17 million bpd. US President Trump arrived in Beijing to begin his visit to China. He Lifeng held economic and trade consultations with US Treasury Secretary Bessent in South Korea. China's State Administration for Market Regulation: launched a special campaign to remove obstacles hindering the unified market and fair competition. : SHFE lead remained in the doldrums. Suppliers offered limited quotations, with some waiting for delivery and others seeing rising wait-and-see sentiment. Additionally, cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters also saw relatively fewer quotations. Secondary lead side, regional supply disparities persisted, with smelters showing strong reluctance to sell at low prices. Some smelters held prices firm for shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of 0~+50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-works basis. Downstream enterprises made just-in-time procurement, with inquiry enthusiasm still present and some purchasing on dips as needed, but market trading activity weakened compared to yesterday. Inventory: On May 13, LME lead inventory decreased by 250 mt to 265,300 mt. As of May 11, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 2,200 mt WoW. Lead price forecast for today: Ex-China lead ingot inventory continued to decline, while the LME Cash-3M spread maintained a slight contango. Combined with the persistently tight spot market supply in Southeast Asia, LME lead is expected to hold up well. In addition, uncertainty surrounding overseas geopolitical factors remains significant, and their impact on the market warrants continued attention. Although domestic spot lead prices received a slight boost from LME lead's movement, upward momentum remained insufficient due to weak end-use consumption. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,987/mt and fluctuated downward to a low of $1,972.5/mt during the Asian session. Driven by concerns over ore supply disruptions due to energy shortages in Peru, LME lead rallied firmly during the European session, touching a high of $1,998/mt near the close and ultimately settling at $1,997.5/mt, up 0.45%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,595 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,605 yuan/mt at the start, then fluctuated downward to a low of 16,520 yuan/mt before moving sideways near the close, ultimately settling at 16,525 yuan/mt, down 0.33%, marking a fifth consecutive decline. On the macro front: A US appeals court stayed an unfavorable ruling on Trump's 10% global tariffs. India raised the basic customs duty on gold and silver imports from 5% to 10%. Indian banks proactively paid customs duties to resume gold and silver imports, completing customs clearance of 9 mt of gold and 34 mt of silver in May. Russia cut its 2026 crude oil production forecast by 14.2 million mt to 511 million mt, and its export forecast by 4.5 million mt to 237.2 million mt. The US overall CPI annual rate for April was 3.8%, exceeding the expected 3.7% and hitting the highest level since May 2023, with the energy index contributing over 40% of the overall increase. : As the SHFE lead price center shifted further downward, suppliers sold along with the market, with some lowering discounts for shipments. However, affected by the crackdown on "invoice-based tax arbitrage," some trading companies had their invoicing quotas reduced, restricting lead market trading. Primary lead from smelters in the form of cargoes self-picked up from production site was increasingly directed toward downstream enterprises. Additionally, as secondary lead losses widened, smelters showed strong hold back from selling sentiment, with notably fewer spot order quotations. Mainstream production areas quoted secondary refined lead at premiums of +0~+50 yuan/mt over SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, with inquiry enthusiasm rising compared to the previous day. However, given the weak lead price trend, apart from some downstream enterprises that purchased as needed, most preferred to wait and see. Inventory: On May 12, LME lead inventory decreased by 375 mt to 265,550 mt. As of May 11, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 2,200 mt WoW. Lead price forecast for today: The SHFE lead 2605 contract will enter delivery this week. Suppliers continued to transfer lead ingots to delivery warehouses, and lead ingot social inventory maintained its upward trend, surpassing the 70,000 mt mark again for the first time in nearly two months. Recently, the lead-acid battery market remained in off-season mode, and primary lead supply was stable to rising. In particular, following the sharp rally in SHFE lead last week, downstream enterprises were reluctant to purchase at high prices, and the spread between futures and spot prices widened to above 200 yuan/mt. Suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouse increased. Lead ingot social inventory is expected to continue rising before delivery is completed, with notable resistance for lead prices. Data Source Statement: All data other than publicly available information is SMM processed data based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Geopolitical Tensions Resurface Outside China, Lead Prices to Give Back Some Gains] Tensions rise again in the Strait of Hormuz: Iran accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire by launching airstrikes on Iranian coastal areas and oil tankers. Geopolitical events outside China resurfaced, the macro situation became tense, and non-ferrous metals largely pulled back. China's lead fundamentals underperformed...

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Limited Macro and Fundamental Positives, Insufficient Momentum for Lead Price Increases] US Trump said a US-Iran deal was "very likely," threatening stronger bombing if talks failed. After the Labour Day holiday, the lead market resumed normal trading, with lead ingot arrivals increasing at warehouses in multiple regions...

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Accident at Ex-China Lead Smelter, Lead Prices May Be Boosted in the Short Term] The US Secretary of Defense stated that the ceasefire has not ended, that the "freedom plan" in the Strait of Hormuz is a temporary mission, and that engagement is not being sought. During the Labour Day holiday, downstream enterprises in China went on concentrated holidays, while from April to May, more lead smelters underwent maintenance or production shutdowns...