SMM, June 18: Overnight, LME lead opened lower with a gap at $1,979.5/mt and fluctuated upward during the Asian session. After entering the European session, it fell first and then rose. During the session, it hit a low of $1,973/mt and a high of $1,987/mt. It gave back part of its gains late in the session and finally closed at $1,985/mt, up 0.13%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,505 yuan/mt. Early in the session, it briefly touched a high of 16,520 yuan/mt as bears reduced positions. Affected by downstream holiday plans for the Dragon Boat Festival, the absence of lead ingot consumption limited the upside in lead prices. SHFE lead moved sideways and finally closed at 16,470 yuan/mt, with a gain of 0. On the last trading day before the Dragon Boat Festival, coupled with the impact of mid-year account closing, some enterprises also stopped shipments or payments. Wait-and-see sentiment was strong in the market, and some enterprises suspended trading. On the supply side, the number of enterprises undergoing maintenance increased. In addition, with delivery-related factors being implemented, expectations for post-holiday lead ingot inventory buildup were limited. Attention should be paid to the impact of downstream resumption after the holiday on lead price trends.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened lower with a gap at $1,979.5/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session, and then after entering the European session, it fell first before recovering. During the session, it hit a low of $1,973/mt and a high of $1,987/mt, before giving back some gains near the close, eventually settling at $1,985/mt, up 0.13%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,505 yuan/mt, briefly touching a high of 16,520 yuan/mt in early trading as bears reduced positions. However, due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday-related downstream shutdown plans, the lack of lead ingot consumption capped gains, and SHFE lead moved sideways in a narrow range before closing at 16,470 yuan/mt, unchanged. On the macro front: The US Fed removed its bias toward cutting interest rates, and the dot plot showed nine officials projected rate hikes this year. Inventory at the largest US oil storage hub plummeted to critically low levels. US retail sales rose 0.9% month-on-month in May, above the market expectation of 0.5%. The People's Bank of China established a repo facility for overseas central bank-type institutions. The PBOC also optimized the mechanism for temporary overnight reverse repo and repo operations in the open market. The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Implementing the Employment-First Strategy." Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead rose sharply, and suppliers sold cargoes along with the rally, but there was considerable divergence in selling interest, with some widening their discounts. Mainstream production area electrolytic lead quotations ranged from discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In secondary lead, smelter losses narrowed, but more smelters underwent maintenance, so market supplies were limited. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead ex-works, with a few deals negotiated at discounts of 100 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises' risk-off sentiment subsided, but they remained cautious in purchasing high-priced lead, and most held a wait-and-see stance. With the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaching, downstream enterprises planned to shut down, further dampening trading activity. Inventory: On June 18, LME lead inventory fell by 25 mt to 303,650 mt. As of June 15, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions totaled 67,700 mt, up 3,000 mt from June 8 and up 2,300 mt from June 11. Lead price forecast for today: On the last trading day before the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, combined with mid-year account closing effects that led some enterprises to suspend shipments or payments, wait-and-see sentiment was heavy and some transactions were halted. With more smelters undergoing maintenance on the supply side and the delivery factor already materialized, expectations for post-holiday lead ingot inventory buildup are limited. Attention should be paid to the pace of downstream restarts after the holiday and its impact on lead price movements.

SMM, June 17 – During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,415 yuan/mt, moved higher in early session volatility to reach a high of 16,490 yuan/mt, and later moved sideways within the range of 16,435–16,485 yuan/mt before finally settling at 16,470 yuan/mt, recording a three-day winning streak, up 160 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.98%. The Dragon Boat Festival holiday was approaching, downstream processing enterprises were gradually arranging shutdowns for the break, and spot trade sentiment further cooled. Supply-side disruptions continued to emerge, with secondary lead smelters adding maintenance capacity; this week also saw some primary lead smelters resume production, leaving overall supply highly uncertain. The current supply-demand fundamentals, with both sides weakening, capped the rise in lead prices. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are based on publicly available information and market communication, processed by SMM using its internal database models, and are for reference only; they do not constitute any decision-making advice.

SMM, June 17: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,970/mt and fluctuated downward during the Asian session. After entering the European session, it dipped to $1,962/mt. On the eve of the US Fed’s interest rate decision, the US dollar index fluctuated lower, and LME lead released pressure and rebounded. It touched a high of $1,983.5/mt late in the session and finally closed at $1,982.5/mt, up 0.71%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,350 yuan/mt, briefly touching a low of 16,320 yuan/mt in early trading. Boosted by the rise in LME lead, it touched a high of 16,425 yuan/mt late in the session. The KDJ opening widened, and it finally closed at 16,415 yuan/mt, up 0.64%. Transactions of cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead smelters weakened, while secondary lead smelters added new maintenance, leaving uncertainty on the supply side. Downstream battery producers maintained just-in-time procurement. Some enterprises, as their lead ingot inventory was sufficient for just-in-time production and supplemented by pick-up goods under long-term contract, stopped spot order purchases. With the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaching, beware of the drag on lead prices from a market with both weak supply and weak demand.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,970/mt, fluctuating downward during Asian trading hours; entering European trading hours, it dipped to a low of $1,962/mt. Ahead of the US Fed's interest rate decision, the US dollar index fluctuated lower, and LME lead shook off pressure and rallied, hitting a high of $1,983.5/mt at the tail end before finally settling at $1,982.5/mt, up 0.71%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,350 yuan/mt, initially touching a low of 16,320 yuan/mt. Boosted by the rise in LME lead, it then touched a high of 16,425 yuan/mt at the tail end, with the KDJ gap widening, and finally settled at 16,415 yuan/mt, up 0.64%. On the macro front: Trump: ready to let the Russian oil sanctions waiver expire and lapse. World Gold Council survey: more central banks indicate plans to increase gold reserves. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years; the central bank decided to suspend the reduction of bond purchases from April next year. Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs: the safe and free passage of the Strait of Hormuz serves the interests of all parties. China Central Depository & Clearing Co.: plans to reduce the settlement service fee for cash bond trades executed by market makers through market-making from 20% off to 25% off. National Bureau of Statistics: in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.5%; from January to May, total retail sales of consumer goods grew 1.4%. NBS: in May, new home prices in first-tier cities rose 0.2% MoM; second-hand home prices in first-tier cities rose 0.4% MoM. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead continued to hold up well, with suppliers' quotes remaining unchanged. Meanwhile, transactions for EXW cargoes from some smelters weakened. Mainstream electrolytic lead was quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, with some even at a discount of 50 yuan/mt. In the secondary lead market, smelters showed divergent selling intentions. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 125 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price ex-works. Downstream enterprises only made just-in-time procurement, with some mainly taking delivery under long-term contracts or receiving earlier-arriving cargoes. Spot market trading was sluggish. Inventory: on June 16, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,175 mt to 303,675 mt. As of June 15, social inventory of SMM lead ingots across five regions totaled 67,700 mt, up 3,000 mt from June 8 and up 2,300 mt from June 11. Lead price forecast for today: Transactions for primary lead EXW cargoes weakened. Secondary lead smelters experienced new maintenance, keeping supply-side uncertainties in place. Downstream battery producers maintained just-in-time procurement, and some enterprises stopped spot procurement as their lead ingot inventory was adequate for just-in-time production, supplemented by long-term contract cargo pick-ups. As the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaches, beware of the drag on lead prices from a weak supply-demand situation.

SMM June 16 News: Today, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,215 yuan/mt, moved sideways around the daily average in early trading, trended higher during the session to touch a high of 16,360 yuan/mt, pulled back slightly near the end of the session, and finally closed at 16,310 yuan/mt, recording a two-day winning streak, up 70 yuan/mt or 0.43%. Boosted by a broad rise in the non-ferrous metals sector, SHFE lead continued to move higher today. Supply side, primary and secondary smelters have both production stoppages and resumptions, with bullish and bearish factors tugging at each other; demand side, downstream purchase willingness remained weak, with purchases only for essential restocking, and spot lead transactions were sluggish. SMM lead ingot inventories across five regions edged up slightly yesterday. After the delivery of materials is absorbed, inventory buildup pressure will ease marginally, and lead prices have support for a recovery in the short term. Data Sourcing Disclaimer: All data, except for publicly available information, are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are provided for reference only, not constituting any decision-making advice.