SMM, March 18: The most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,695 yuan/mt during the day, with prices fluctuating rangebound in the 16,665–16,720 yuan/mt range in early trading. Before noon, SHFE lead prices rose rapidly and touched a high of 16,785 yuan/mt before pulling back amid fluctuations. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified, and prices remained rangebound within 16,610–16,680 yuan/mt before closing at 16,645 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 45 yuan/mt, or 0.27%. At present, lead prices have stopped falling and rebounded, gradually returning to being driven by fundamentals. On the supply side, ex-works inventory at primary lead smelters continued to be digested, and some suppliers held prices firm in spot lead shipments, providing relatively strong spot support; willingness to sell among secondary lead suppliers diverged, and most enterprises became more reluctant to sell due to losses combined with bullish expectations, leading to a continued contraction in effective market supply. On the demand side, orders from downstream battery plants increased, and production remained at full capacity, providing positive support for lead prices. However, social inventory of lead ingot is still on an upward trend. In addition, as more smelters resume production in mid-to-late March and capacity is gradually released, market circulation will further increase, and lead prices are expected to have limited upward momentum. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM for reference only based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM News, March 18: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,922.5/mt. In early trading, LME lead fell rapidly to a low of $1,913/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $1,932/mt, after which bears regained control and SHFE lead turned downward. Entering the European session, LME lead dropped sharply before beginning to rebound in fluctuations, with prices posting wide swings in the $1,921-1,931/mt range. It finally closed at $1,926/mt, up $1/mt, or 0.05%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,635 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead edged up to a high of 16,685 yuan/mt, then came under pressure and pulled back to a low of 16,595 yuan/mt. SHFE lead showed a sideways movement overall during the night session, with prices posting wide swings in the 16,620-16,685 yuan/mt range from intraday to the close, and finally closing at 16,670 yuan/mt. It recorded a small bullish candlestick, up 70 yuan/mt, or 0.42%. At present, inventory at primary lead smelters continued to decline, while suppliers held firm on quotes and showed a clear reluctance to sell. Losses at secondary lead enterprises widened, and most producers adopted a wait-and-see attitude and were reluctant to sell, leading to some tightening in overall effective market supply. After restocking at low levels, downstream battery plants slowed their procurement pace, and downstream demand remained weak. The overall pattern of weak supply and weak demand persisted. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Subsequent price moves require close attention to geopolitical factors, changes in operating rates at secondary lead enterprises in mid-to-late March, and actual downstream procurement conditions.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief Review] In terms of supply, coking costs increased and losses widened somewhat. At present, coke producers were barely maintaining normal operating rates, while coke production remained temporarily stable. Meanwhile, downstream demand for coke increased, and coke producers' shipments improved somewhat. On the demand side, steel mills were in an active phase of resuming production, while finished steel prices fluctuated upward and steel mill profitability improved somewhat, boosting production enthusiasm and increasing demand for coke. In summary, the fundamentals of coke supply and demand developed in a positive direction, and the coke market may remain generally stable with slight rise in the short term.

On March 18, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained unchanged.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Briefing] Polysilicon: The quoted price for N-type recharging polysilicon was 42-49 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to decline recently, mainly affected by wafer price cuts and market sentiment. At present, low-priced polysilicon has already fallen below the cost line of some manufacturers, and the willingness to hold quotes firm has strengthened somewhat. The upstream market was also still watching wafer price moves. Wafer: In the market, 18X wafer prices were 1.00-1.05 yuan/piece, 210RN wafer prices were 1.1-1.15 yuan/piece, and 210N wafer prices were 1.3-1.35 yuan/piece. Wafer prices remained stable. Current selling prices have already fallen below cash cost, so the likelihood of another sharp price cut was relatively small.

SMM, March 18: The SHFE aluminum 04 contract moved lower today. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, overall purchase sentiment rose today. Sellers held prices firm, with mainstream quotations and transaction prices in the market mostly ranging from the average price to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.17, up 0.05 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 3.03, up 0.33 MoM. Today, SHFE aluminum futures prices pulled back, and buying sentiment in the central China market surged. Bullish sentiment in the market was strong, and willingness to buy the dip was significant. Meanwhile, suppliers tended to hold back from selling and turned to purchasing at lower prices to profit from the price spread. Only some trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market took profits on premiums and shipped goods, while the overall reluctance to sell was evident. Market quotations ranged from parity with the central China price to a premium of 60 yuan, but final actual transactions were mainly concentrated at premiums of 30-40 yuan over the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.59, down 0.01 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.04 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased 8,500 mt MoM today, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Guangdong. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued its seasonal buildup after the Chinese New Year. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums were expected to remain on a narrowing trend.