This week, lead smelters still indicated that lead concentrate TCs had yet to see a substantive rebound. However, market quotes for silver-bearing lead concentrates with negative TCs had already decreased significantly. Smelters generally remained on the sidelines and purchased cautiously. Coupled with weak fundamentals in the refined lead market, smelters showed low willingness to stock up on raw materials. Silver prices fluctuated within a range and consolidated. After bullish sentiment cooled, apart from slight reductions in the highest quotes for certain silver concentrates or high-silver lead ore with silver content above 2,000 g/mt in physical content, the payable indicator for silver in lead concentrates with other silver content levels generally remained stable.

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According to SMM, both supply and demand in the lead concentrate market declined in February. Smelters in Hunan and Yunnan suspended raw material procurement offers due to maintenance shutdowns during the Chinese New Year holiday. Some producers adopted a cautious purchasing approach towards silver in silver-bearing lead ores, fearing a price decline. The short-term unilateral bullish sentiment for silver has significantly faded. The payable indicator for silver contained in lead concentrates remained stable in the near term. Should silver prices enter a downward trend, smelters may consider negotiating a lower coefficient. Although extreme offers, where smelters actively reduce TCs to "snap up" silver-bearing lead concentrate raw materials, have almost disappeared after the holiday, a few small-scale, low-silver lead mines slightly increased lead concentrate TCs to hedge against silver price downside risks. However, smelters generally indicated that it remains difficult to raise mainstream lead concentrate TC offers in March.

During the week of February 22 to February 26, 2026, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 51.47%, up 1.14 percentage points WoW from the rate during the Chinese New Year holiday week, but down 8.24 percentage points WoW from the pre-holiday rate.

Next week, key macroeconomic data releases include the US February ISM Manufacturing PMI, US February ADP employment figures, and China's official February Manufacturing PMI; additionally, the US Fed will release the Beige Book. Meanwhile, overseas geopolitical tensions remain prominent, with uncertainties in US-Iran conflicts fueling strong market risk-off sentiment. On the LME lead front, overseas lead inventory surged by over 50,000 mt during the Chinese New Year holiday. Although stocks declined post-holiday, the high inventory base continued to significantly suppress lead prices, preventing them from breaking above $2,000/mt. Recently, widespread power outages in the US due to winter storms boosted heating demand, driving natural gas prices higher. This, to some extent, increased smelting costs for lead ore and lead ingots, providing short-term support for lead prices. LME lead is expected to trade between $1,950-2,000/mt next week. For SHFE lead, post-holiday inventory buildup in the lead market was severe, with stocks rising simultaneously at smelters and social warehouses, becoming a major drag on prices. Notably, scrap battery prices rose steadily after the holiday, widening losses for secondary lead producers and prompting some smelters to delay resumption plans, which will ease future lead ingot inventory pressure. Meanwhile, as downstream enterprises resume operations, focus will be on lead consumption recovery digesting lead inventories. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is forecast to fluctuate between 16,650-17,000 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,500-17,500 yuan/mt. Next week, lead-acid battery enterprises are expected to largely resume production, and with pre-holiday lead ingot inventories gradually being consumed, rigid demand restocking is anticipated. On the supply side, secondary lead smelters delayed resumption and face significant losses, limiting spot discounts for secondary refined lead. For primary lead, supplies will re-enter the market after delivery next week, and with high smelter inventories, spot discounts may widen.

The domestic supply of lead concentrates remains tight. After the price adjustment of imported ore with a Pb60TC, the market has seen a situation where prices are quoted but there is little actual trading. Some traders have quoted prices for silver-lead ore in the range of -$60 to -$80 per dry metric ton (dmt), and smelters are adopting a cautious stance with low purchase intentions. In the domestic market, the routine maintenance of some smelters in late June and the increase in production at lead-zinc ore projects in Xinjiang, Tibet, and other regions have slightly alleviated the supply deficit pressure of lead concentrates in some local areas. Smelters in multiple regions, including Inner Mongolia and Henan, have not shown any intention to adjust the domestic Pb50TC prices. However, the expected insufficient supply of imported ore, combined with the recent tight supply of other lead-bearing materials and crude lead, is expected to persist, and there is no anticipated rebound in lead concentrate TCs in the short term. Regarding the silver pricing coefficient in lead concentrates, despite silver prices reaching new highs in June, smelters generally indicate that there is no room for further increases in the silver pricing coefficient in lead concentrates after several rounds of price hikes. The silver pricing coefficient in various types of silver-bearing lead concentrates has remained unchanged for the time being. 》Click to view the SMM Metal Industry Chain Database