Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,895.5/mt. After the opening, prices quickly fell to $1,885.5/mt, then fluctuate rangebound within the $1,888–1,896.5/mt range, with a balanced tug-of-war between longs and shorts and cautious market sentiment. After 0:00, prices rose further, breaking above the previous trading range and touching a high of $1,901/mt, before finally closing at $1,898.5/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up $0/mt, or 0.0%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,420 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices rose rapidly, then saw wide swings within the 16,440–16,481 yuan/mt range, with an evident tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Intraday volatility narrowed, and prices gradually stabilized around 16,455–16,465 yuan/mt, while trading volume pulled back simultaneously and market sentiment turned cautious. Late in the session, SHFE lead broke upward again, touching a high of 16,500 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back to finally close at 16,470 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 50 yuan/mt, or 0.3%. On the macro front: 1. Poll: Trump’s approval rating fell to its lowest level since returning to the White House. 2. US media: The US Department of Justice admitted it lacked evidence in its investigation into Powell. 3. Turkey considered using its $135 billion gold reserves to defend the lira. 4. Israeli media: The US intended to seek a one-month ceasefire to discuss a 15-point agreement with Iran. 5. Goldman Sachs maintained its overweight recommendation on Chinese equities (A-shares and Hong Kong stocks). Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, while suppliers held prices firm on shipments. Quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly in spot premiums, while quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead plants changed little. Mainstream producing areas quoted premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price, with a few quoting premiums of 100 yuan/mt ex-works. On the secondary lead side, some secondary lead enterprises had maintenance plans, and circulating cargoes in the spot market were limited. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining. In addition, as secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead, spot order purchases tilted toward primary lead. Inventory: As of March 24, LME lead inventory fell by 725 mt, or 0.26%, to 283,350 mt. As of March 23, SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions pulled back somewhat from previous inventory at high levels. Today’s Lead Price Forecast: Supply side, primary lead smelters held firm offers, and spot premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly, while quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead smelters changed little. Some secondary lead smelters had maintenance plans, and circulating cargoes in the spot market were limited. Demand side, downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining, and as secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead, spot order procurement tilted toward primary lead. According to SMM analysis, SHFE lead prices were likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

SMM, March 25: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,895.5/mt. After the opening, prices quickly fell to $1,885.5/mt, and then fluctuate rangebound within the $1,888–1,896.5/mt range, with a balanced tug-of-war between longs and shorts and relatively cautious market sentiment. After 0:00, prices rose and broke above the previous trading range, hitting a high of $1,901/mt before closing at $1,898.5/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up $0/mt, or 0.0%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,420 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices rose rapidly, and then saw wide swings within the 16,440–16,481 yuan/mt range, with an evident tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Intraday volatility narrowed, with prices gradually stabilizing around 16,455–16,465 yuan/mt, while trading volume also pulled back and market sentiment turned cautious. Late in the session, SHFE lead again broke upward, hitting a high of 16,500 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back to close at 16,470 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 50 yuan/mt, or 0.3%. Supply side, primary lead smelters held firm offers, while spot premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai edged up slightly, and quotes for primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site changed relatively little. Some secondary lead smelters had maintenance plans, and spot market circulating cargoes were limited. Demand side, downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining. In addition, as secondary lead prices were inverted against primary lead, spot order purchases tilted toward primary lead. According to SMM analysis, SHFE lead prices are likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

Silver prices rebounded and rose today, and the spot-futures price spread between TD and the most-traded SHFE silver contract narrowed. Some suppliers were reluctant to sell and stayed on the sidelines, while downstream buyers generally negotiated prices and bought the dip. In the Shanghai market, during early trading, mainstream quotations from holders of national-standard silver ingots were quoted at premiums of 100-150 yuan/kg against TD, or at premiums of 50-80 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2604 contract. Only a small volume was traded in early trading. As the spot-futures price spread narrowed and silver prices surged, downstream purchasing interest declined markedly. Although some suppliers were reluctant to sell and remained on the sidelines due to costs and other factors, some sellers in the market cut prices and sold at premiums of 0-20 yuan/kg against the 2604 contract. Spot market quotations varied widely, buyers and sellers engaged in intense bargaining, downstream enterprises made small-volume purchases on dips, and market transactions turned subdued.

SMM, March 24: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,435 yuan/mt intraday. After the opening, prices edged lower, and the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified. SHFE lead prices fluctuated at lows in consolidation, touching an intraday low of 16,385 yuan/mt. Thereafter, bulls gradually gained strength and prices fluctuated higher, but with insufficient upward momentum, lead prices pulled back again and fluctuated rangebound within the 16,429-16,451 yuan/mt range. Near the close, SHFE lead prices dipped slightly and finally settled at 16,420 yuan/mt. A small bearish candlestick was recorded, up 25 yuan/mt, or 0.15%. In terms of supply, primary lead enterprise quotes saw discounts narrow slightly from last Friday, and spot cargo available for pickup at plants with medium to large discounts decreased significantly; in the secondary refined lead market, fewer merchants offered quotes, with relatively prominent price divergence between upstream and downstream players. Downstream buyers showed limited acceptance of premiums, while upstream quotes stayed firm and willingness to sell remained cautious. On the demand side, downstream enterprise procurement pace was relatively scattered, with most purchases centered on the execution of long-term contracts. Some enterprises replenished inventories on dips based on immediate needs, and overall market transactions were mixed. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Statement on data sources: Except for public information, all other data is derived by SMM through processing based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, March 24: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,889/mt. In early trading, LME lead fluctuated downward, dipping to $1,873.5/mt. Then bulls stepped in, driving prices sharply higher, with wide swings in the $1,888.5-1,909/mt range and a session high of $1,909/mt. Near the close, bullish momentum somewhat faded, and LME lead edged down slightly to finally close at $1,898.5/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, up $9.5/mt, or 0.5%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,495 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices briefly fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 16,510 yuan/mt. It then saw wide swings in the 16,440-16,500 yuan/mt range. During the session, SHFE lead fluctuated downward, falling to 16,405 yuan/mt. Late in the session, SHFE lead prices stabilized slightly and rebounded, finally closing at 16,435 yuan/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, up 40 yuan/mt, or 0.24%. Supply side, discounts quoted by primary lead enterprises narrowed slightly WoW, and among cargoes self-picked up from production site, heavily discounted cargoes were also hard to find. The number of enterprises quoting secondary refined lead was relatively small, and there were clear differences between upstream and downstream in price acceptance: downstream had low acceptance of premiums, while upstream held firm offers and showed cautious willingness to sell. Demand side, procurement by downstream enterprises was somewhat scattered. Some mainly made purchases under long-term contracts, while others bought the dip as needed, resulting in differentiated market transactions. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

SMM News, March 24: Aluminum ingot: On March 24, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was reported at 23,440, up 30, at a discount of 170 against the current-month contract, narrowing by 5 (unit: yuan/mt) The SHFE aluminum 04 contract generally stabilized today. Supported by aluminum prices halting their decline and edging up slightly, the South China spot market stabilized and improved, and buyers generally showed good purchasing sentiment today. Spot prices were significantly below the monthly average price, and sellers firmly held prices firm. However, amid weekend inventory buildup and ample circulating cargo, overall support for firm prices was clearly constrained under high inventory pressure. Mainstream transaction prices in the market today were concentrated at premiums of -175 yuan/mt to -165 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract.