[2026 Lead Concentrate Production, Imports, and TCs: A Comprehensive Review and H2 Market Outlook]In H1 2026, intensified geopolitical games and rising trade policy uncertainties posed multiple challenges to the lead-zinc industry chain, including structural adjustments in ore supply, persistently declining TCs, and smelting costs under pressure. Lead concentrates remained in deficit, and the profit center shifted to by-products on the smelting side.

Supply Side: Seasonal Production Resumptions Advance, Marginal Increases Are Expected from March to April According to SMM data, affected by the traditional winter break, production at lead-zinc mines in China’s colder regions declined starting in January. After the Chinese New Year holiday in February, mines gradually began preparations to resume production, but had not yet returned to full capacity. Lead concentrate supply in north China is expected to continue improving from March to April. In terms of production, February lead concentrate production fell by about 37,300 mt in metal content MoM. In addition to fewer calendar days, mine shutdowns during the Chinese New Year holiday usually lasted 7-30 days. Mines that resumed production after the holiday gradually stabilized, forming the main source of incremental supply in March; some mines remained under winter break until late March and will not return to normal production until mid-April, while a few small and medium-sized mines are still waiting for operating permits from regulators. SMM expects lead concentrate production in March to recover to about 130,000 mt in metal content, an increase of nearly 40,000 mt in metal content from February. Market Side: Delayed Inventory Release, Diverging Procurement Strategies In terms of transactions, due to unstable mine production in February, most enterprises temporarily delayed sales offers, and lead concentrate inventory generally did not enter the market until production stabilized in March. Although the tight supply pattern is unlikely to change in the short term, volatility in precious metal prices has intensified wait-and-see sentiment among smelters, and the earlier phenomenon of “panic buying” silver-bearing lead concentrates at the cost of suppressing TCs had already faded by early March. Regional divergence has emerged: some small-scale smelters in Hunan, Yunnan, and other regions were concerned that weaker precious metal prices would leave by-product revenue insufficient to cover processing losses, and have cut primary lead production plans or extended maintenance cycles. Meanwhile, smelters’ tolerance for extremely low TCs has declined significantly, narrowing room for market negotiation. Import and Price Outlook In Q1 2026, China’s silver prices unusually generated import arbitrage, and expanding import profits for silver-bearing lead concentrates drove imports of lead concentrates and lead-bearing silver concentrates in January-February above the same period in previous years. As imported raw materials gradually arrived at plants, some producers postponed their demand for domestic spot procurement. In terms of prices, silver prices have not yet fallen below the key support level of 20,000 yuan/kg, and the payable indicator for silver content in silver-lead ore has remained stable in the short term after multiple rounds of increases. If silver prices weaken sharply and remain weak, the payable indicator for silver content may edge down slightly, and lead concentrate TC quotes may rebound as demand for precious metals weakens.

[Zinc Concentrate Production Information] Pan American Silver Corp released unaudited Q3 2025 results. The report showed its Q3 2025 zinc concentrate production was 12,600 mt, up 13% YoY, and its Q3 lead concentrate production was 6,200 mt, up 19% YoY.

[Yunnan Chihong Zn & Ge Co., Ltd. Q3 Report Released] Yunnan Chihong Zn & Ge Co., Ltd. released its Q3 2025 report. The report showed that from January to September 2025, zinc concentrate production was 164,400 mt in metal content, lead concentrate production was 61,500 mt in metal content.In terms of smelted lead and zinc products, total lead product output was 121,500 mt, total zinc product output was 393,900 mt, comprising zinc ingot (224,000 mt) and zinc alloy (169,900 mt).

In September, the SMMpb50TC was reduced by 50 yuan/mt in metal content to 450 yuan/mt in metal content (price range: 350-550), and the SMMpb60TC price was lowered by $30/dmt to -$90/dmt (price range: -110~-70). Although more primary lead smelters were expected to undergo maintenance in the autumn, market participants remained cautious about the future of lead concentrate TCs due to limited growth in lead concentrate supply. The arrival of imported lead concentrates in Q3 did not effectively alleviate the tight supply, and a rebound in lead concentrate TCs is unlikely in the short term.

[Zinc Concentrate Production Information] Pan American Silver Corp announced its unaudited Q2 2025 results. The report showed that its zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 12,600 mt, up 25% YoY, and its lead concentrate production in Q2 was 6,000 mt, up 22% YoY.