This week, the Pb50 domestic TC (weekly) held steady at 150 yuan/mt Pb, and the Pb60 import TC (weekly) held steady at -$170/dmt. Recently, ore-derived lead smelters in Inner Mongolia, Hunan, Henan and other parts of China were nearing maintenance cycles, and overall lead ore procurement volume was low. However, domestic ore-side disruptions also increased, with some mines suspending operations one after another, which reduced domestic ore supply; overall, both supply and demand were weak; on the import side, transaction prices for high-grade imported concentrates from Peru, Brazil, and Russia remained between -$200 and -$260/dmt during the week, while overall TCs were largely stable. The lead ore market remained in undersupply, and with silver prices rebounding and silver ore supply tight, the supply available to lead ore was limited. If domestic mine maintenance and production cuts increase going forward, or incremental output release falls short of expectations, lead concentrate TCs may still have room to decline. In addition, silver payable indicators in lead concentrates were largely stable as silver prices rebounded and the indicators were already at high levels.

This week, the weekly Pb50 domestic TC was flat at 150 yuan/mt Pb, and the weekly Pb60 imported TC was flat at -$170/dmt. During the week, enterprises were mainly negotiating TCs for the next month. Based on current negotiations, concentrates rich in associated metals are expected to edge down, while standard concentrates are expected to see relatively small changes. This is mainly because profits from minor metals such as sulphuric acid and silver have become the primary support for ore-derived lead smelting profits. During the week, it was heard that lead concentrates containing silver and antimony with separate valuation were transacted at a TC of -450 yuan/mt Pb. Meanwhile, some lead concentrates were sold together with zinc concentrates, with the lead concentrates containing copper, gold, and silver, settling at a TC of -200 yuan/mt Pb. Some high-silver concentrates with a small amount of unvalued copper were transacted at a TC price of -3,700 yuan/mt Pb. In July, some domestic mines reduced or halted production due to safety and environmental protection inspections and the rainy season. Production is expected to recover in August, while domestic ore-derived lead smelters are anticipated to undergo maintenance in late August. It is expected that there will be limited room for further declines in domestic lead concentrate TCs in August. On the imported concentrates side, port lead concentrate inventory stood at a relatively high level of over 30,000 mt, and with the ratio at low levels, mainstream transaction prices for imported concentrates remained unchanged, mainly steady.

SMM July 20 News: According to the latest customs data, imports of lead concentrates in June 2026 were 116,000 mt in physical content, up 9,000 mt or 8.45% MoM, down 1.69% YoY. Cumulative imports of lead concentrates in January-June were 703,900 mt in physical content, down 4.95% YoY. Based on import data by country, the top three sources of lead concentrate imports in June were Russia (31,200 mt in physical content, 26.89%), Peru (19,800 mt in physical content, 17.09%), and Australia (10,200 mt in physical content, 8.76%). In June, lead concentrate imports increased MoM, mainly driven by notable growth from Peru and Russia. From the import profit margin perspective, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market in June, the SHFE/LME lead price ratio kept rising, and import losses for lead concentrates narrowed to around -200 yuan/mt. Amid a domestic ore shortage, lead concentrate TCs were further lowered, boosting domestic smelters' demand for imported ore and also contributing some growth. Entering July, domestic smelters entered planned maintenance. Coupled with persistent tight raw material supply and losses that prompted more maintenance at secondary lead enterprises, social inventory hovered around 70,000 mt. Overseas, large deliveries to warehouses for two consecutive days pushed LME inventory beyond 450,000 mt. The domestic market continued to outperform the overseas market, and lead concentrate imports remained at a slight loss. Primary lead smelters, supported by profits from by-products such as sulphuric acid, still had strong demand for ore. In July, south China entered the rainy season, leading some mines to suspend operations for maintenance, while safety and environmental protection inspections also shut down some small mines. Demand for imported lead concentrates stayed high. Meanwhile, overseas mine production and transportation recovered somewhat in Q2, and lead concentrate inventory at main ports increased to over 20,000 mt. Lead concentrate imports are expected to rise further in July. Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, processed by SMM. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

[2026 Lead Concentrate Production, Imports, and TCs: A Comprehensive Review and H2 Market Outlook]In H1 2026, intensified geopolitical games and rising trade policy uncertainties posed multiple challenges to the lead-zinc industry chain, including structural adjustments in ore supply, persistently declining TCs, and smelting costs under pressure. Lead concentrates remained in deficit, and the profit center shifted to by-products on the smelting side.

This week, lead concentrate TCs were generally flat. The weekly average TC for domestic Pb50 was 200 yuan/mt Pb, and for imported Pb60 it was -$145/dmt. During the week, TCs for standard ores held steady. Some enterprises that set prices at month-end or early in the month continued with previous prices. For silver-lead ores rich in copper and zinc, with non-payable metal content, transaction TCs were at a high level of around -2,900 yuan/mt Pb. For imported ores, smelters were willing to accept silver-lead ore TCs exceeding -$200/dmt, driven by payable metal credits and blending needs. Also, although silver prices fell to around 15,000 yuan/mt during the week, the decline was brief and did not form an absolute low. Combined with high silver recovery rates at lead smelters, the payable indicator for silver in lead concentrates has not yet been lowered.

Lead concentrate TCs were lowered by 50 yuan/mt Pb overall this week. The average weekly TC for domestic Pb50 was reduced to 200 yuan/mt Pb, while some silver-lead ores rich in copper and zinc were still quoted with high TCs above -2,000 yuan/mt Pb due to reasons such as non-pricing or low pricing of contained metals. Overall, lead concentrates remained in tight supply. Due to low arrivals of imported ore, the average weekly TC for imported Pb60 was reduced to -145 $/dmt, and the mainstream quotation range for smelters was lowered to -160 to -130 $/dmt. A few smelters accepted quotations above -200 $/dmt for imported silver-lead ores with good richness due to by-product revenue needs and other reasons. Some smelters have not yet finalized their prices for this month. In terms of negotiations and expectations, lead concentrates exhibited a polarization trend: smelters paid less attention to low-richness ores, but were still willing to accept high-metal-richness silver-lead ores. Additionally, the decline in imported zinc ore, to some extent, fueled the tight supply sentiment for lead ore, making lead concentrate TCs more likely to fall than rise. Meanwhile, the silver coefficient in lead concentrates remained unchanged, mainly because silver prices stayed range-bound and the coefficient had already risen to a relatively high level, thus remaining largely stable overall.