Next week, several key economic data will be released, mainly including China's official manufacturing PMI for June, the US June ADP employment figure, the US June unemployment rate, and the US June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls. Recently, US-Iran diplomacy achieved a phased breakthrough, with both sides signing a memorandum of understanding, leading to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and the recovery of crude oil and other supplies. However, conflicts along the Lebanon-Israel border have been recurring, and the ceasefire agreement remains fragile, necessitating cautious optimism. Additionally, short-term inflation data and hawkish signals pushed up expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, while market views diverged and conflicted, requiring closer attention to next week's economic data outcomes. As for LME lead, affected by the lifting of shipping restrictions in the Middle East and expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, market bearish sentiment surged, and LME lead prices fell continuously, nearly breaking below $1,900/mt. While lead prices were declining, the LME Cash-3M contango widened, with the latest quote at -$33.6/mt. Notably, LME lead inventories have been on a downtrend for four consecutive weeks, with total inventories dropping below 300,000 mt, the latest figure at 297,500 mt. It is expected that short-term macro risk factors still exist, and fundamental factors present contradictions. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums, with LME lead forecast to trade between $1,875 and $1,945/mt. As for SHFE lead, entering July, with the semiannual capital repatriation factor removed, upstream and downstream enterprises will resume regular trading. Meanwhile, supplies of lead concentrates and scrap batteries remain constrained, with secondary lead enterprises incurring significant losses. Production resumptions have been delayed, and there are additional production cuts. Coupled with the persistent inversion between secondary and primary lead prices, these factors will provide support for lead prices in the short term. However, we also need to be vigilant about macro bearish factors, with lead prices expected to be in the doldrums, while watching the lead ingot import window. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade between 15,950 and 16,400 yuan/mt. Spot price forecast: 15,950-16,250 yuan/mt. Before the end of June, some large downstream enterprises will close accounts and take inventory, which will continue to disrupt trading activity for lead ingots. Once July arrives, the lead market will return to normal trading. In some regions, transactions for primary lead at a significant contango (against SMM#Pb) are expected to decrease, or the contango will narrow. On the secondary lead side, constrained by losses, smelters' shipments are limited, and some enterprises already have inventory buildup. If arrivals of imported lead increase to supplement supply, it cannot be ruled out that secondary refined lead may turn to widen the contango.

This week, domestic Pb50 weekly TCs remained flat at an average of 200 yuan/mt Pb. During the negotiation period for next month's TCs, enterprises indicated that the price had not been fully determined, but against the broader backdrop of tight lead concentrates, expectations remain for further downward adjustments next month. For TCs to stop falling and stabilize, actual production cuts by primary lead smelters would need to be seen. Outside China, weekly import TCs held steady at -$165/dmt, but the strike in Bolivia disrupted imports of lead and zinc concentrates, and expectations remain for further declines in import TCs. In addition, although the silver price fell further to the level at the end of last year, it stayed high overall; the silver coefficient in lead concentrates was generally stable. Furthermore, silver-lead ore also contains valuable metals such as copper and zinc. Against the backdrop of an overall ore shortage, smelters still favoured rich ores, and for some enterprises, due to copper-rich material with silver content above 2,000 g, the transaction coefficient could still reach a high of 96%.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Different Risk Factors in and Outside China; Beware of Import Expectations amid Lead Prices with Overseas Market Underperforming Domestic Market] Recently, the U.S.-Iran peace talks have seen new progress, and Middle East shipping restrictions are about to be lifted. The nonferrous metal supply chain will be restored. Under expectations of recovery in shipping and energy supply, nonferrous metals generally weakened. However, in the lead market, domestic lead smelters are undergoing both maintenance and resumptions...

This week’s weekly TC for domestically produced Pb50 remained unchanged at an average of 200 yuan/mt Pb, while the average weekly TC for imported Pb60 was revised down to -$165/dmt. During the week, TCs for domestically produced standard ore held steady, but the market for high-grade lead concentrates (lead content above 55%) remained tight, with mainstream transactions primarily at zero or negative TCs. Additionally, a magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck Dachaidan in Haixi, Qinghai, during the week; according to SMM, lead and zinc mines in Qinghai were unaffected and production remained normal. For imported ore, limited arrivals and high sulphuric acid prices meant smelters had strong demand for ore, pushing TCs down further, with some silver-lead ore prices reported at -$260/dmt. Amid expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, disruption to lead concentrate supply has been minor, but market estimates suggest that if sulphuric acid prices fall sharply, thereby impacting primary lead smelter production, lead TCs may only then have a chance of stopping their decline. In the short term, ore supply remains tight.

Central Asia Metals (CAML) announced that, thanks to improved operational efficiencies, its copper and zinc production for the first five months of 2026 both surpassed the same period last year. Copper output from the Kounrad operation in Kazakhstan totalled 5,141 tonnes, a near 4% increase over the last year. Meanwhile, the Sasa mine in North Macedonia produced 7,566 tonnes of zinc in concentrate, up over 2% compared to last year. In terms of pricing, the company reported significantly higher realized metal prices during the period. The average price of copper reached $13,076 per tonnes, representing a massive jump of nearly 40% over the last year, while average zinc prices rose 19% to $3,299 per tonne. In addition, historically low treatment charges for lead, which have turned negative, further boosted Sasa’s revenues. CEO Gavin Ferrar noted that the group is shaping up to deliver strong profitability and cash generation in the first half of 2026. Currently, the company is actively pushing forward with its acquisition of Australia's Cygnus Metals, announced last week, to expand its footprint into a high-grade copper-gold project in Quebec, Canada. The company remains highly confident in meeting its full-year production guidance (12,000–13,000 tonnes of copper, 18,000–20,000 tonnes of zinc concentrates, and 26,000–28,000 tonnes of lead concentrates).

This week, lead concentrate TCs were generally flat. The weekly average TC for domestic Pb50 was 200 yuan/mt Pb, and for imported Pb60 it was -$145/dmt. During the week, TCs for standard ores held steady. Some enterprises that set prices at month-end or early in the month continued with previous prices. For silver-lead ores rich in copper and zinc, with non-payable metal content, transaction TCs were at a high level of around -2,900 yuan/mt Pb. For imported ores, smelters were willing to accept silver-lead ore TCs exceeding -$200/dmt, driven by payable metal credits and blending needs. Also, although silver prices fell to around 15,000 yuan/mt during the week, the decline was brief and did not form an absolute low. Combined with high silver recovery rates at lead smelters, the payable indicator for silver in lead concentrates has not yet been lowered.