This week’s weekly TC for domestically produced Pb50 remained unchanged at an average of 200 yuan/mt Pb, while the average weekly TC for imported Pb60 was revised down to -$165/dmt. During the week, TCs for domestically produced standard ore held steady, but the market for high-grade lead concentrates (lead content above 55%) remained tight, with mainstream transactions primarily at zero or negative TCs. Additionally, a magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck Dachaidan in Haixi, Qinghai, during the week; according to SMM, lead and zinc mines in Qinghai were unaffected and production remained normal. For imported ore, limited arrivals and high sulphuric acid prices meant smelters had strong demand for ore, pushing TCs down further, with some silver-lead ore prices reported at -$260/dmt. Amid expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, disruption to lead concentrate supply has been minor, but market estimates suggest that if sulphuric acid prices fall sharply, thereby impacting primary lead smelter production, lead TCs may only then have a chance of stopping their decline. In the short term, ore supply remains tight.

[LME: Lowers Daily Price Change Limits on Lead and Zinc Outright Contracts] The London Metal Exchange (LME) confirmed that it would reduce the daily price change limits on lead and zinc outright contracts across all trading platforms from 15% to 12%, with the new rules taking effect from June 8.

05 May 2026 Silver has exhibited even greater volatility than gold in Q1 2026. Prices briefly surged to around $120/oz on 29 January, roughly four times higher than a year earlier, before dropping sharply to the mid-$60s within days, easing further to around $61/oz by mid-March. The metal continues to display a strong sensitivity to moves in gold, and we expect that relationship to remain the dominant driver of direction. Industrial demand At January’s price spike, the key concern was that elevated prices could begin to undermine industrial usage. Given that roughly half of total silver demand comes from industrial applications, this remains the most critical component of the market. With prices having moderated, the risk to demand has eased somewhat. Even so, after peaking in 2024, industrial demand softened in 2025 and may edge slightly lower again in 2026. A large part of this dynamic is tied to the solar sector. Installation activity was brought forward ahead of changes to China’s power pricing regime, which is likely to weigh on deployment this year. At the same time, manufacturers continue to reduce the amount of silver used per unit through efficiency gains and material substitution. Industry estimates suggest that these technological improvements have cut silver intensity meaningfully, meaning that even where installations grow, silver demand does not necessarily follow. Despite these headwinds, the long-term backdrop remains supportive. Solar remains one of the cheapest sources of electricity, and structural demand for power continues to rise globally. However, growth is not unconstrained with grid bottlenecks and permitting delays continue to limit the pace of expansion in many regions. Geopolitics may also play a role. The conflict involving Iran could accelerate efforts in Europe and Asia to diversify energy sources and reduce reliance on imported hydrocarbons. While renewable supply chains carry their own risks, these are largely front-loaded in the build phase. Once operational, renewable assets provide domestically generated energy, which enhances energy security. As such, while our base case is for softer solar-related silver demand, there is scope for upside if policy shifts accelerate deployment. Beyond solar, demand linked to data infrastructure, electrification of transport, and investment in power networks should remain supportive. In addition, usage tied to ethylene oxide catalysts is expected to recover following last year’s decline. Figure 1: Industrial silver demand Source: Metals Focus, WisdomTree. 2026. (F) = Forecasts. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance, and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties. Investor demand Investor flows were a major feature of 2025. Exchange-traded products (ETPs) saw strong inflows from March through year-end, broadly tracking the rise in prices and reaching one of the highest annual totals on record in volume terms. That trend has reversed in 2026. Outflows have been notable, with investors taking profits even before prices reached their peak in late January. The shift in positioning helps explain the sharp price correction. As participation broadened and leveraged exposure increased into early 2026, the market became more susceptible to rapid deleveraging. When geopolitical tensions escalated, many investors reduced risk and raised cash, leading to a wave of long position closures rather than the build-up of new bearish bets. Physical investment trends have been more mixed. Demand for coins and bars rose strongly in 2025, supported not only by traditional markets such as India, Germany, and Australia, but also by a pickup in East Asia and the Middle East. In these regions, higher gold prices appear to have encouraged substitution into silver. In contrast, US demand weakened significantly, falling to its lowest level in many years. More recently, volatility has dampened appetite across Western markets, with investors taking a more cautious approach during February and March. Figure 2: Silver in Exchange-traded products Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. September 2020 to April 2026. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance, and any investments may go down in value. Jewellery demand The sharp rise in prices through 2025 and early 2026 has weighed heavily on jewellery demand. Global fabrication fell by 8% in 2025, reflecting broad-based declines. India saw the most pronounced drop, as affordability pressures curtailed demand, while Europe was affected by weaker export activity linked to trade frictions. East Asia proved more resilient, with modest growth in China supported in part by substitution away from gold, and stronger export performance in Thailand. Looking ahead, continued price strength is likely to further suppress demand, while ongoing instability in the Middle East may also weigh on regional consumption. Recycling Higher prices encouraged an increase in recycling last year, with volumes reaching their highest level in over a decade. Gains were most evident in jewellery and silverware, where selling back into the market is more price sensitive. However, the response was not unlimited. Processing constraints within the refining system restricted the amount of material that could be brought back to market, particularly for higher-grade scrap. Industrial recycling moved in the opposite direction, declining due to weaker recovery rates from electronic waste. In 2026, recycling is expected to increase further, supported by a full year of elevated prices. Mine supply Global mine output rose by 3% in 2025, supported by stronger production in countries such as Peru and Russia. At the same time, production costs declined for a second consecutive year, boosting margins for primary silver producers. For 2026, supply is expected to remain broadly stable, with a marginal decline as gains in some regions are offset by weakness elsewhere, particularly in operations linked to lead and zinc mining. It is important to note that the majority of silver supply is produced as a secondary output from other metals, including gold, copper, lead, and zinc. As a result, silver supply is influenced not only by its own price but also by broader dynamics in base and precious metals markets. While higher prices and improved margins may incentivise increased activity, disruptions at both the mine and refining level, along with geopolitical complications, could limit supply growth in the near term. Market balance The silver market is expected to remain in deficit in 2026, with the shortfall broadly similar to that seen in 2025, though significantly smaller than in recent years. Weaker demand from industrial and jewellery segments has helped narrow the imbalance. At the same time, strong inflows into ETPs last year effectively absorbed available supply, tightening underlying conditions more than headline balances suggest. With investor demand likely to moderate this year, some of that pressure should ease, bringing the market closer to equilibrium. Figure 3: Silver market balance Source: Metals Focus, WisdomTree. 2025. (F) = Forecasts. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance, and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties. Price outlook We retain a positive outlook for gold and expect silver to move in the same direction. Even with softer demand across several segments, the strength of this relationship should provide support. Based on our modelling assumptions, and assuming gold rises by around 18% between Q1 2026 and Q1 2027, we estimate that silver could increase by roughly 24% over the same period. Much of this upside is driven by gold’s trajectory rather than silver-specific fundamentals. There are, however, constraints. Increased investment in mining capacity last year may translate into higher supply, limiting upside potential. In addition, while economic indicators such as PMIs 1 remain in expansionary territory, geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on the strength of the recovery. Figure 4: Forecast attribution Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance, and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties. Conclusion Silver’s outlook is shaped less by its own fundamentals and more by its relationship with gold. Although weaker industrial and jewellery demand, along with more moderate investment flows, may create near-term headwinds, these factors are unlikely to outweigh the support provided by a favourable macro backdrop for precious metals. With the market still in deficit and structural demand drivers intact, silver remains well positioned to participate in further upside, albeit with continued volatility. Source： https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2026-05-05/silver-surfing-on-golds-coattails

The 2026 SMM London H1 Seminar concluded on April 29 with great success, bringing together global metals and commodities leaders for a day of high-level dialogue and actionable insights. The seminar drew over 160 valid pre-registrations and more than 100 on-site attendees, gathering core practitioners, senior experts, research scholars and institutional representatives across the global non-ferrous metals industrial chain. Centered on copper, aluminum, lead and zinc, the event delivered in-depth insights into current industry performance, supply-demand shifts and future market outlooks. It also featured two high-level panel sessions with distinguished guests, who exchanged views on key industry highlights such as geopolitical impacts, global trade restructuring, cross-market arbitrage and divergent commodity fundamentals. The event comprehensively reviewed the macro backdrop of commodities as well as opportunities and risks in base metals, offering professional references and forward-looking insights for global non-ferrous market participants. SMM Industry Analysis: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Lead & Zinc Geopolitics and Metals: Pricing the New Global Risk Premium How rising geopolitical tensions are reshaping global supply chains, macro risk, and base metal price formation. Dr. Yanchen Wang, Managing Director of SMM Global UK Ltd., provided analysis on macro trends and the aluminum and nickel markets. From a macro perspective, he noted that global economic uncertainty has intensified, with the IMF cutting global GDP growth forecast. China's exports may serve as a key economic pillar in 2026. Power sector investment increased significantly from January to February 2026. The State Grid Corporation of China will ramp up investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. In terms of the aluminum market, Chinese smelters saw improved profitability and higher operating rates. Weak demand in Q1 combined with rising aluminum prices drove inventory to rise. Outside China, new aluminum capacity additions in Indonesia in 2026 are expected to be substantial, with SMM estimating approximately 950,000 mt of new aluminum smelting capacity potentially coming online in Indonesia in 2026. Angola is attracting Chinese investment thanks to its hydropower advantages. In the nickel market, given the Indonesian government's tightening of quotas, SMM estimates Indonesia's RKAB supplementary quotas this year at approximately 15%-20%. In terms of supply outside China, constrained by a lack of new projects, imports from the Philippines are expected to remain at around 19 million mt. Considering the impact of the rainy season on production, the market is expected to maintain a tight balance. Shairaz Ahmed, Principal Market Analyst & Client Advisor at SMM, shared insights on the global copper market. He noted that global copper cathode demand will continue to grow from 2025 to 2030, with demand potentially reaching around 32 million mt by 2030 in an optimistic scenario. China's copper concentrates still rely on imports, and global copper concentrates supply will remain tight from 2026 to 2028, with the downward trend in spot TC not yet over. Meanwhile, global copper cathode production growth will slow down in the future, and the market will most likely fall into a supply deficit from 2027 to 2030, providing long-term support for copper prices. Yueang He, Senior Lead & Zinc Analyst at SMM, interpreted the lead-zinc market trends for 2026. Looking at the global zinc concentrates market in 2026, he stated that although production in China, Africa, and some projects continues to ramp up, production cuts at large mines are suppressing overall supply, with China's zinc concentrates production estimated to be up 4.8% YoY to 3.95 million mt in 2026; European smelting, affected by electricity prices fluctuations, may see selective minor production cuts of 60,000-100,000 mt. Overall, the zinc concentrates market in and outside China will maintain a tight balance in 2026, with refined zinc showing a surplus in China and a deficit ex-China. In terms of lead market, he stated that global lead mine supply is gradually recovering, but the concentrates market remains tight, and TC is unlikely to rebound significantly in the short term. He estimates that the loose supply situation in the global refined lead market will persist until 2028, with high visible inventory on both exchanges combined with slightly soft battery demand in China limiting the upside room for lead prices. Panel Session — Positioning and Price Signals: What Are Commodity Markets Telling Us? Understanding market positioning, inventory signals, and cross-market arbitrage. Moderator: Shairaz Ahmed, Principal Analyst & Client Advisor at SMM Panelists: David Lilley, Director and Co-CIO at Drakewood Capital Management Limited Maruis Van Straaten, Metals Research Analyst at Squarepoint Gregory Shearer, Head of Base Metals and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan Loic Jonchery, Base Metals Trader at Gunvor The panelists focused on current mainstream cross-market arbitrage strategies, emphasizing the need to closely track premiums and futures price spreads across various commodities, while comparing price spread performance across upstream and downstream categories such as cathode materials, scrap, and intermediate products, leveraging signals to identify arbitrage opportunities. The current market is subject to multiple influences including policy constraints, supply adjustments, and changes in industry rules, with the overall landscape becoming increasingly fragmented. China's policies have imposed a supply ceiling, compounded by industry framework adjustments and lengthy implementation cycles, keeping small and medium-sized enterprise operations and the supply side persistently tight, increasing market friction, and creating significant uncertainty in arbitrage trading. In this complex environment, price spread fluctuations have amplified and ranges continued to widen, with enhanced trend continuity in underlying markets; combined with cross-regional approval processes and circulation restrictions, traditional arbitrage logic has broken down and trade execution difficulty has increased. At the sub-sector level, the copper market attracted high attention, while structural distortions in nickel and other categories became prominent, making conventional arbitrage and sales models difficult to execute consistently; quality arbitrage opportunities concentrated among entities with balance sheet advantages, while ordinary participants became more cautious in decision-making, with overall trading behavior turning more conservative. Overall, the guests believed that there is no universally applicable, low-risk cross-market arbitrage strategy in the current market. Logic across different sub-markets has diverged significantly, and conducting related trades requires thorough assessment of policy, circulation, and fundamental risks. Panel Session: Superpowers and the Battle for Base Metals Moderator: Dr. Yanchen Wang, Managing Director of SMM Global UK Ltd. Panelists: Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Analyst, Middle East, North Africa and Asia, StoneX Max Layton, Global Head of Commodities Strategy, Citi Helen Amos, Managing Director and Commodities Analyst, BMO Capital Markets Amy Gower, Executive Director, Head of Metals and Mining Commodities Strategy, Morgan Stanley Amy Gower stated that since H2 last year, they have held a structurally bullish view on aluminum fundamentals: China's aluminum capacity is approaching its ceiling, and combined with expectations of incremental supply from Indonesia, the bullish logic for the aluminum industry is concentrated in H2. Currently, supply-side tightening in the aluminum market has gradually materialized, but the tightness has not been fully reflected in futures prices, and is instead more evident in strengthening spot premiums. Year-to-date, three-month aluminum has risen 18%, with European spot premiums at 27%. In addition, the guests noted that due to geopolitical factors, countries are increasingly prioritizing self-sufficiency and controllability of critical material supply chains, rather than relying on globalized supply allocation. Combined with various policy interventions, the previously freely flowing global commodities market is gradually moving toward regionalization and localized fragmentation. On the trade front, markets have become more unpredictable, and understanding the market is crucial. Some guests mentioned that interest rate trajectory is a key variable, and they expect that after interest rates decline from 2027 to 2028, supply-demand and inventory dynamics will further materialize. Meanwhile, upgraded supply chain governance and the normalization of strategic reserves across countries will provide long-term support for commodities price resilience. Session 4: How Do SMM Data and Information Products Empower Commodities Decision-Makers? As a globally renowned non-ferrous metals price assessment platform, Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is committed to providing superior data to clients worldwide, empowering them to make more precise decisions. SMM understands that in a complex and ever-changing market environment, accurate and timely data is the key to success. To this end, SMM has built a comprehensive data platform covering multiple metals including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel. Taking the copper market as an example, the SMM database covers the entire industry chain from mines, smelting, trading, and inventory to downstream demand, offering over 10,000 key indicators across sub-categories such as copper cathode, copper scrap, copper concentrates, copper anode, and sulphuric acid, including real-time spot prices, futures data, supply-demand balance tables, operating rates, and social inventory, comprehensively meeting clients' analytical needs. To make data access simpler and more convenient, SMM launched the SMM Excel Add-in. Users need no programming or API knowledge to browse, select, and sync massive amounts of data with a single click within the familiar Excel environment. In addition to easy-to-use data tools, SMM also offers professional price membership services and in-depth market analysis reports. Whether you are a trader who needs real-time price references, an analyst who relies on granular data to build models, or an enterprise manager seeking market insights, you can find the right solution at SMM. Coffee Break and Networking With this, the 2026 SMM H1 London Seminar has come to a successful conclusion. SMM sincerely appreciates the strong support from all industry peers and partners.

Ho Chi Minh City has issued a revised price list for calculating resource tax, effective from February 10, 2026. The framework covers various natural resources, including key base metals such as lead, zinc, copper, tin, and nickel. Under Vietnam’s resource tax system, metallic minerals are subject to tax rates ranging from around 10% to 40%, with lead and zinc typically taxed at about 15%. The updated pricing mechanism aims to better reflect market fluctuations and improve valuation accuracy when transaction prices are unclear or inconsistent. This may impact cost structures for domestic producers and exporters of base metals and supports Vietnam’s broader effort to enhance transparency and standardization in mineral pricing.

[Smelters Actively Scrambled for Domestic Ore, TCs in Multiple Regions of China Continued to Decline]: Based on weekly data, the SMM Zn50 domestic weekly average TC fell 100 yuan/mt Zn WoW to 1,250 yuan/mt Zn, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index dropped $9.25/dmt WoW to -$28.5/dmt...