On Wednesday, the most-traded SHFE lead PB2507 contract fluctuated rangebound during the daytime session, while it rose first and then fell during the night session. LME lead prices fluctuated rangebound. Spot market: In the Shanghai market, Chihong and Honglu lead were quoted at 16,530-16,550 yuan/mt, with discounts of 20-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2506/2507 contracts. Suppliers shipped goods according to market conditions, with some offering quotes at small discounts. The cargoes self-picked up from production sites of primary lead smelters in major producing areas were quoted at discounts of 60 yuan/mt to premiums of 100 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price. Discounts further widened in South China, while narrowing in North China. Spot orders of secondary lead were quoted at premiums of 0-100 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead price, with a few traders offering quotes at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt. After the holiday, downstream enterprises had limited immediate demand, and some reduced their inquiries after buying the dip. SMM: Recently, a large secondary lead smelter in east China resumed production. However, due to ongoing environmental protection inspections in the region, the smelter's production remains unstable. Overall, the continuity of downstream purchases after the holiday was weak, and there was no significant improvement in off-season demand. In June, maintenance at primary lead smelters increased, while some secondary lead smelters resumed production, leading to a marginal increase in supply pressure. The support near 16,500 yuan/mt for lead prices remains effective, but the driving force for a rebound is temporarily insufficient, with prices expected to maintain a fluctuating and consolidating trend in the short term.

On Wednesday, the most-traded SHFE lead PB2506 contract fluctuated rangebound during the day and narrowly fluctuated at night, while LME lead fluctuated upward. Spot market: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at 16,875-16,975 yuan/mt, with premiums of 50-100 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract; Jijin lead was quoted at 16,825-16,855 yuan/mt, with premiums of 0-30 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract. In the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region, JCC lead was quoted at 16,825-16,855 yuan/mt, with premiums of 0-30 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract. Suppliers followed the market to sell goods, with significant differences in quotations. Ex-factory cargoes of primary lead were generally sold at discounts (against the SHFE lead 2505 contract), and the secondary lead market showed large differences in quotations, with price spreads reaching up to 100 yuan/mt in the same region. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt ex-factory against the SMM 1# lead average price. Downstream buyers purchased at low prices, and the enthusiasm for inquiries increased. Overall, the quotations for used batteries continued to rise, with strong cost support. The scope of production cuts at secondary lead smelters expanded, providing support on the supply side. However, due to the off-season for battery consumption, some battery companies completed stockpiling before the holiday, and the expectation for purchases weakened, with limited demand support. Currently, both supply and demand are weak, and the sustainability of the lead price rebound is insufficient, with a short-term return to fluctuations.

On Tuesday, the most-traded SHFE lead PB2506 contract initially declined and then rebounded during the day, with its center shifting downward at night, while LME lead closed lower. Spot market: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at 16,990-17,045 yuan/mt, with a premium of 50-80 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract; Jijin lead was quoted at 16,940-16,995 yuan/mt, with a premium of 0-30 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract. In the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region, JCC lead was quoted at 16,940-16,995 yuan/mt, with a premium of 0-30 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract. SHFE lead showed a high-level consolidation trend, with suppliers actively quoting and selling, and warehouse cargo premiums were lowered. Meanwhile, the discounts for cargoes self-picked up from production sites of some primary lead smelters expanded again (against the SHFE lead 2505 contract). Downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, with some rigid demand favoring low-priced secondary lead sources. SMM: A secondary lead smelter in central China cut production by 50% due to insufficient raw materials, with current refined lead daily production at 200-300 mt. A secondary lead smelter in east China previously reduced production due to tight raw material supply. The company stated that lead ingot sales were sluggish and cost pressure was significant, and it plans to maintain production at around 100 mt/day in the near future. A secondary lead enterprise in east China, with a normal daily production of 700 mt, reduced production again to 300-400 mt/day this week due to raw material shortages, with the recovery time yet to be determined. Overall, dragged down by the decline in LME lead, the center of SHFE lead shifted downward. Currently, the price of used batteries continues to rise, secondary lead smelters are facing losses, the scope of production cuts has expanded, and some have postponed resumption of production, weakening supply pressure and supporting lead prices. However, the battery consumption off-season, limited restocking for the May Day holiday, and some companies planning to take holidays during May Day have resulted in weak demand, limiting the rebound space. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate in the short term.

On Monday, the most-traded SHFE lead PB2505 contract fluctuated rangebound during the day, with its center slightly shifting downward at night, while LME lead also fluctuated rangebound. Spot market: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at 16,925-16,955 yuan/mt, with a premium of 50-80 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract; Honglu lead was quoted at 16,895-16,905 yuan/mt, with a premium of 20-30 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract; in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region, JCC lead was quoted at 16,875-16,895 yuan/mt, at parity with the SHFE lead 2505 contract. SHFE lead maintained high-level consolidation, and as the delivery date approached, some suppliers waited for delivery, resulting in fewer market quotations, with some quoted at premiums. Downstream enterprises were cautious about high prices and made fewer purchases, with only some making just-in-time procurement. SMM: As of this Monday, social inventory stood at 66,600 mt, a decrease of 2,900 mt WoW. Overall, some used battery recyclers halted purchases and adopted a wait-and-see approach, leading to tighter supply. Used battery prices rose slightly, and losses at secondary lead smelters widened, with some cutting or halting production, providing support for lead prices. However, as the monthly delivery approaches, inventory buildup pressure increases, lead ingot imports have started, and the expectation of imported supply inflows has strengthened. Additionally, during the off-season, battery enterprises in Anhui plan to lower their operating rates. With both bullish and bearish factors at play, lead prices are unlikely to see a trend in the short term, with attention focused on the resistance at key levels.

Since May, lead concentrate imports have turned profitable, with the import window remaining steadily open for nearly three months, and the profitability of lead concentrate imports continued to expand until the end of July.