SMM July 30: PV Aluminum Extrusion: This week, according to feedback from PV frame enterprises in the survey sample, industry operating rates remained stable overall. According to SMM, China’s module scheduled production was ~38.5 GW in July, and is expected to edge up MoM to 39.3 GW in August. Underpinned by stable-to-rising demand from downstream module production schedules, PV frame enterprises’ operating rates are expected to hold steady in the near term, with leading PV frame enterprises with long-term contract advantages maintaining high operating rates. Raw Material Prices: During the period (July 27–30, 2026), the SMM A00 weekly average price was 23,357.5 yuan/mt, up 0.8% from the previous week’s average. Overall, the continuous rise in the proportion of liquid aluminum in China, the persistent geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East, combined with sustained destocking of domestic aluminum ingots, jointly supported aluminum prices, visibly enhancing near-term market confidence. However, the continuous additions of forward aluminum capacity outside China, weak traditional end-use demand in China, together with ongoing fluctuations in expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes and uncertainty in the Middle East geopolitical situation, still pose certain pressure on aluminum price upside. In the near term, aluminum prices maintained a consolidation pattern on a strong note. Next week, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is expected to move in a range of 23,000–24,150 yuan/mt, and LME aluminum in a range of $3,100–3,250/mt.

Impala Platinum Holdings (Implats) has temporarily suspended mining activities at its flagship Rustenburg complex in South Africa following six worker fatalities over the past year and a rise in serious underground safety incidents. The company initiated a comprehensive safety reset from 24–28 July to strengthen operational controls and prevent further incidents. Rustenburg is one of the world’s largest platinum-group metals (PGM) mining complexes and Implats’ largest operation, employing approximately 51,500 workers. The mine accounts for nearly half of Implats’ total PGM production and is expected to produce around 1.67–1.76 million six-element PGM ounces in the 2026 financial year. The temporary shutdown is expected to impact approximately eight days of production, with the company stating that the final effect on output will be assessed after operations resume. Existing stockpiles are expected to help mitigate any short-term supply impact. The short-term impact on global platinum supply is expected to remain limited due to the brief duration of the shutdown and available inventories. However, renewed safety concerns at major South African operations may provide additional support to platinum prices, highlighting potential supply-side risks facing the world’s leading region for PGM production.

SMM, July 30: Iron ore futures continued to drift lower during the day session on July 30, closing down again and fully reflecting the dual bearish pressure from macro headwinds and fundamentals. Earlier macro tailwind expectations gradually fizzled out, and combined with a sharp increase in supply and persistently weak downstream demand, iron ore futures faced a double blow. By the close of the day session on July 30, iron ore extended its losing streak to a fifth consecutive trading day, falling 3.31% to 715 yuan/mt, with an intraday low of 712.5 yuan/mt—a new low since early July 2025. Fundamentals Supply: Weather disruptions outside China fade, port arrivals surge, and supply pressure climbs significantly Chart: SMM 35-port Inventory (10kt) Data Source: SMM In terms of supply: According to SMM shipping data, total global iron ore shipments tracked by SMM reached 27.82 million mt last week, down 10% WoW; cumulative shipments were up 1% YoY. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both edged down slightly, while shipments from non-mainstream countries fell WoW, though shipments from India and Peru rebounded notably. Meanwhile, total China iron ore port arrivals tracked by SMM surged to 30.32 million mt last week, up 54% WoW, with cumulative arrivals up 5% YoY. As weather disruptions outside China gradually recede, port arrivals rebounded markedly, and the supply growth weighed on ore prices. Demand: Off-season compounded by environmental protection-driven production restrictions, hot metal output continues to pull back, and raw material demand support weakens In terms of demand: Environmental protection-driven production restrictions and the traditional off-season effect pushed China’s hot metal output down to a low for the year, and iron ore continued to face pressure from downstream demand. According to an SMM survey, on July 29 the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills stood at 88.93%, down 0.47 percentage point WoW. Average daily hot metal output at the sampled mills was 2.4087 million mt, down 16,000 mt WoW. The decline in hot metal output this week was mainly due to disruptions from environmental inspections, especially in the Tangshan area of Hebei, where mills arranged concentrated short-term maintenance, leading to a temporary output reduction. Inventory: Port inventories saw a buildup, with a clear pattern of strong supply and weak demand Chart: SMM Ten-Port Inventory Data (10kt) Data Source: SMM In terms of inventory: As of July 30, according to SMM monitoring data, total inventories at the ten ports tracked by SMM stood at 106.92 million mt, up 1.29 million mt WoW, with coarse fines, concentrate, lump ore, and pellets all showing a slight inventory buildup. The inventory buildup at ports further confirmed the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand, continuing to suppress iron ore market prices. Market outlook for iron ore, in the short term, supply-side growth pressure continues to be released, and the pattern of weak demand during the traditional off-season for downstream end-users is unlikely to reverse quickly. Before significant improvement in construction activity and finished steel consumption, iron ore prices will overall remain in the doldrums. Subsequently, focus will be on tracking the strength and rollout pace of end-use demand recovery during the traditional September-October peak season. From a medium and long-term perspective, the iron ore market in H2 2026 will continue to see an oversupply pattern, with fundamentals weakening QoQ and ore prices still having the possibility of hitting bottom further. However, the escalating US-Iran conflict has pushed up energy costs, driving up ocean shipping costs, which will provide bottom support for iron ore prices. Overall, barring any significant macro or fundamental positive news, the oversupplied fundamentals will prevent iron ore from staging a trend reversal rebound, while the downside room is limited, keeping prices in a pattern of consolidating on a subdued note with insufficient upward momentum and cost-based downside support. Institutional Views A research report from Everbright Futures showed: Australian miner MinRes released its Q2 2026 operational report. The report showed that iron ore production at the Onslow Iron project in Q2 reached 8.754 million mt, up 12% QoQ and 42% YoY; shipments reached 9.596 million mt, up 33% QoQ and 66% YoY, setting a quarterly shipment record. Iron ore shipments from the Pilbara Hub project in Q2 were 2.701 million mt, up 31% QoQ and 7% YoY. For FY2026, MinRes's attributable iron ore shipments reached 29.543 million mt, setting an annual record. Combined with Rio Tinto and Vale's quarterly reports having previously confirmed high production and sales from major mines, the medium-term supply ample pattern was further cemented. On the demand side, hot metal output continued its decline, and low steel mill profits dampened raw material purchase willingness. Ore prices are expected to continue to consolidate on a subdued note in the short term. SDIC Futures stated: Supply side, global shipments pulled back MoM and were weaker than the same period last year. BHP and workers have yet to reach an agreement on pay raises, but currently there are no further strike plans; future attention remains on negotiation progress. China's port arrivals fell below the year-to-date average but were still stronger than the same period last year; port inventories stabilized and rebounded after weather disruptions ended. Demand side, apparent steel demand in the off-season was weak; the proportion of profitable steel mills continued to decline from low levels, leading to more production cuts; hot metal output continued to fall, and iron ore demand faced marginal downside pressure. Recurrent external geopolitical conflicts keep oil prices consolidating at relatively high levels, providing some cost support below the futures market. SDIC Futures expects iron ore futures to consolidate. Yide Futures believes that hot metal output is gradually declining, the seasonal supply decline is not significant, supply-demand marginal improvement is insufficient, and inventory pressure remains high. Although 730-710 offers some support, end-use demand has not yet emerged from the off-season, and rebound momentum is insufficient. Recommended reading:

[Production Under Pressure, Supply Marginal Reduction, Silicon Prices Remain Under Pressure] Currently, the silicon metal industry chain is showing a clear game-playing pattern, with structural divergence between upstream and midstream. On the supply side, silicon enterprises are incurring cash flow losses, and a few have undergone maintenance and production halts. As the actual output reduction has been limited so far, it has not had a directional impact on market sentiment. Silicon enterprises are holding prices firm and unwilling to lower quotations to boost orders, leading to an accumulation trend in industry in-factory inventory. In the midstream, social inventory has been destocking for several consecutive weeks. Trading firms engaging in both spot and futures markets are preferring transactions at low futures levels, and inventories in the trade circulation sector continue to destock. The tightening of circulating supply has driven the spot-futures price spread to strengthen, with spot prices showing greater resistance to declines than futures.

On July 24, the Hangzhou sub-competition of the “Rare Earth Leads the Future, Innovation Wins in Lucheng” Baotou Rare Earth Future Industry Innovation and Entrepreneurship Competition was held. The competition was hosted by the Baotou Municipal Government and organized by the Office of the Talent Work Leading Group of the Municipal Party Committee, the Municipal Science and Technology Bureau, the Administrative Committee of the Rare Earth High-Tech Industrial Development Zone, and other units, aiming to attract talents and promote innovation through the competition and to foster deep integration between Baotou’s rare earth industry and the scientific and innovation resources of the Yangtze River Delta. The competition attracted numerous universities and research institutes, innovation teams, and technology enterprises from the Yangtze River Delta, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Beijing, and other regions to compete on the same stage.

Li Yiren, Vice President of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) and President of the Metallurgical Industry Sub-Council of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT), introduced that China leads the world in rare earth reserves, capacity, and separation and purification technologies. Applying high-abundance rare earth elements such as lanthanum and cerium to steel materials can not only diversify and efficiently utilize China’s advantageous rare earth resources, but also drive the transformation and upgrading of the steel industry, achieving the synergistic development goal of “rare earth + steel” for enhanced efficiency.