Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,905/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead consolidated around the daily average line. Entering the European session, LME lead dipped slightly to $1,883/mt, then fluctuated upward. Around midnight, after moving sideways, LME lead futures were dominated by bulls, with the center gradually moving higher to a peak of $1,926/mt, and finally closed at $1,925/mt, up $22/mt, or 1.16%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened higher with a gap at 16,450 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices plunged rapidly, hitting a low of 16,320 yuan/mt before a slight correction. Thereafter, bulls and bears competed, and SHFE lead prices saw wide swings within the 16,355-16,405 yuan/mt range. At the end of the night session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated upward, but due to strong bearish momentum, turned to fluctuate downward and closed at the low of 16,405 yuan/mt. It posted a long upper-shadow bearish candle, up 90 yuan/mt, or 0.55%. On the macro front: 1. Trump: Once the Iran war ends, oil prices will fall rapidly like a rock. 2. Iran's foreign minister denied recent contact with the US special envoy, saying such reports appeared to be only intended to mislead oil traders. 3. Foreign media: The Saudi crown prince suggested Trump continue striking Iran. 4. US Treasury Secretary: There was no intervention in the oil futures market, and oil prices may be "well below" $80 within months. 5. Iranian Foreign Ministry: Ships from parties not involved in the war have already passed through the Strait of Hormuz. 6. Trading in key London Metal Exchange contracts was once suspended for several hours. 7. Li Chenggang: The Chinese and US teams reached preliminary consensus on certain issues. 8. China and the US agreed to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment. 9. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): From January to February, the national economy got off to a strong start and began well Spot fundamentals: Yesterday morning, SHFE lead fell sharply, once dropping below 16,200 yuan/mt in early trading, before recovering part of the losses. Suppliers shipped in line with the market, while some suppliers were reluctant to sell at low prices. Discounts narrowed significantly from last Friday, especially for primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site, with quotations in major producing areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. In addition, as losses widened at secondary lead smelters, some enterprises suspended shipments or offered quotes at high premiums. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises actively inquired and purchased, with more purchases in major producing areas. However, as market discounts narrowed or turned into premiums, procurement decreased accordingly, and spot market trading was relatively active. Inventory: As of March 16, LME lead inventory increased by 75 mt, or 0.03%, to 284,575 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions increased slightly again. Lead Price Forecast for Today: After plunging sharply yesterday, SHFE lead recovered some of its losses, while discounts for primary lead spot cargo against last Friday narrowed. As losses widened, secondary lead enterprises quoted at premiums, with some choosing not to make shipments; secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead prices, prompting downstream buyers to favor purchases of primary lead. Overall, support from the spot market and cautious downstream sentiment are in a tug-of-war, making it difficult for lead prices to stage a strong reversal for now, with weak consolidation and sideways movement likely to dominate.

SMM News, March 17: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,905/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated around the daily average line. Entering the European session, LME lead edged down to $1,883/mt, then fluctuated upward. Around midnight, after moving sideways, the futures were dominated by bulls, with the center gradually lifting to a high of $1,926/mt, and finally closing at $1,925/mt, up $22/mt, or 1.16%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened higher with a gap at 16,450 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices plunged rapidly, hitting a low of 16,320 yuan/mt before a slight correction. Thereafter, bulls and bears competed, and SHFE lead posted wide swings within the 16,355-16,405 yuan/mt range. Toward the end of the night session, SHFE lead fluctuated upward, but as bears gained strength, it shifted to a fluctuate downward trend, closing at 16,405 yuan/mt, near the session low. It formed a long upper shadow bearish candle, up 90 yuan/mt, or 0.55%. After SHFE lead fell sharply yesterday, some of the losses were recouped, and discounts for primary lead spot narrowed from last Friday. As losses widened, secondary lead enterprises quoted premiums, with some choosing not to ship. As secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead prices, downstream buyers favored purchasing primary lead. Overall, support on the spot side and cautious downstream sentiment remained in competition, making it difficult for lead prices to stage a strong reversal for now, with weak consolidation and rangebound sideways movement likely to dominate.

SMM, March 13: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at around 16,550 yuan/mt. In early trading, lead prices fluctuated downward, hitting a low of 16,195 yuan/mt, and then rebounded slightly on buying support, though the rebound was limited. SHFE lead prices saw wide swings within the 16,280-16,370 yuan/mt range and finally closed at 16,315 yuan/mt. A small bearish candlestick was recorded, down 240 yuan/mt, or 1.45%. Recently, factors such as a strong US dollar driven by geopolitical tensions and stagflation concerns have weighed on lead prices. Meanwhile, losses at secondary lead smelters widened, with some enterprises suspending shipments or raising premiums on quotes; premiums for cargoes self-picked up from production sites at primary lead smelters remained firm, and proactive supply-side tightening underpinned spot prices. At present, lead prices are dominated by bears and are expected to remain in the doldrums. Subsequent lead price trends should focus on changes in downstream buying sentiment. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,938/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead prices moved steadily around the daily average line, briefly touching a high of $1,638.5/mt. Entering the European session, bulls and bears were evenly matched, and LME lead prices continued to fluctuate rangebound around the daily average line. Thereafter, bears took the lead, and LME lead fluctuated downward. Around midnight, LME lead prices plunged to a low of $1,890/mt, and finally closed at $1,903/mt, down $32.5/mt, or 1.68%. Trading volume fell to 7,363 lots, while open interest increased by 2,494 lots to 176,000 lots. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,550 yuan/mt. It edged up in early trading, touched a high of 16,565 yuan/mt, and then slipped slightly. Thereafter, amid a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, SHFE lead prices fluctuated rangebound within the 16,385-16,465 yuan/mt range, and closed at 16,395 yuan/mt near the session low. It posted a long bearish candlestick, down 160 yuan/mt, or 0.97%. Trading volume fell to 28,599 lots, while open interest increased by 2,715 lots to 66,396 lots. On the macro front: 1. US GDP for Q4 last year was revised down to only 0.7%, while core PCE inflation rose 0.4% MoM and 3.1% YoY. 2. Sources said neither the US nor Iran intended to agree to a ceasefire, and the conflict in the Middle East may become prolonged. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu released a video to prove he was still "alive" and said operations against Iran would continue. The Israeli military said its military operations against Iran would last at least another three weeks. Iran's foreign minister said Iran had never requested a ceasefire or negotiations. A senior Iranian commander said there were two conditions for ending the war: Iran must recover all losses and the US must leave the Persian Gulf. 3. International Energy Agency: Record strategic crude oil reserves will be released immediately to the Asian market, while Europe and the US will need to wait until month-end. 4. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki: Preparations have been made to take all necessary exchange-rate measures. 5. State Council executive meeting: It discussed and approved the Work Division Plan for the State Council's Key Tasks in 2026 and studied the establishment of a negative list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies. 6. The central bank: Aggregate social financing added up to 9.6 trillion yuan in the first two months, 31.62 billion yuan more than the same period last year; M2 balance at the end of February rose 9% YoY. 7. The National Financial Regulatory Administration, together with the People's Bank of China, formulated the Provisions on Disclosure of Comprehensive Financing Costs for Personal Loan Business. 8. China Securities Regulatory Commission: It will closely track changes in international financial markets and the internal and external environment, and strengthen coordinated monitoring of at home and abroad and futures and spot markets. 9. China-US economic and trade consultations were held in France from March 14 to March 17. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums. Suppliers quoted in line with market conditions. In Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, suppliers mostly waited for delivery, with few quotations. Meanwhile, quotations for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site diverged. Suppliers in the north actively made shipments at discounts, while in south China, due to limited circulating cargoes, some suppliers held prices firm and shipped at premiums. Mainstream producing areas were quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price. In addition, secondary lead smelters were mostly cutting or suspending production due to losses, leaving fewer circulating cargoes in the market. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-25 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises bought the dip on demand, and due to the price difference between primary lead and secondary lead, rigid demand from downstream enterprises was more inclined toward primary lead. Inventory: As of March 13, LME lead registered warrants fell 0.18% to 279,125 mt. As of March 12, total SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions continued to increase. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Current lead prices were still generally moving in a weak rangebound pattern, lacking a clear one-way trend. The primary lead spot market showed a clear north-south divergence, with northern suppliers shipping at discounts and some southern cargoes staying tight, supporting firm offers. Secondary lead smelters cut or suspended production due to losses, and tighter circulating cargoes provided some price support, but downstream procurement remained cautious and mainly driven by rigid demand, with weak purchase willingness. As the price spread between primary lead and secondary lead narrowed, some demand shifted to primary lead, while transactions in secondary lead remained sluggish. Overall, lead prices are unlikely to see a notable rebound in the short term and will likely maintain rangebound consolidation. Further attention should be paid to inventory changes and smelter production conditions.

SMM News, March 16: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,938/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead prices moved steadily around the daily average line, briefly touching a high of $1,638.5/mt. Entering the European session, bulls and bears were evenly matched, and LME lead continued to fluctuate rangebound around the daily average line. Later, bears took the lead, sending LME lead fluctuating downward. Around midnight, LME lead prices plunged to a low of $1,890/mt before finally closing at $1,903/mt, down $32.5/mt, or 1.68%. Trading volume fell to 7,363 lots, while open interest increased by 2,494 lots to 176,000 lots. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,550 yuan/mt. It edged up at the beginning of the session, then retreated slightly after touching a high of 16,565 yuan/mt. Thereafter, amid a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, SHFE lead fluctuated rangebound in the 16,385-16,465 yuan/mt range, and closed near the session low at 16,395 yuan/mt. It posted a long lower-shadow bearish candlestick, down 160 yuan/mt, or 0.97%. Trading volume fell to 28,599 lots, while open interest increased by 2,715 lots to 66,396 lots. At present, lead prices remained mainly in the doldrums overall, lacking a clear unilateral trend. In the primary lead spot market, divergence between north and south China was evident: cargoes in north China were shipped at discounts, while some supply in south China was tight, prompting sellers to hold prices firm. Secondary lead smelters cut or halted production due to losses, and the tightening of circulating supply provided some support to prices. However, downstream procurement remained cautious and was mainly driven by rigid demand, with weak purchase willingness. As the price spread between primary lead and secondary lead narrowed, part of demand shifted to primary lead, and secondary lead transactions were sluggish. Overall, lead prices were unlikely to see a marked rebound in the short term and would likely remain rangebound, with follow-up attention needed on inventory changes and smelter production conditions.

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