[General Motors Launches IT Department Overhaul, Laying Off Hundreds of White-Collar Employees] General Motors plans to cut hundreds of salaried white-collar employees in its information technology department to reduce costs and make room for talent with skills in other technology areas. People familiar with the matter revealed that the layoffs affected approximately "500 to 600" people, adding that company management began issuing notices to affected employees on the morning of May 11. In response to an inquiry from Bloomberg News, General Motors confirmed that it was carrying out layoffs in some positions. In a statement, General Motors said the layoffs stemmed from a transformation and restructuring of its information technology department, aimed at optimizing the company's overall strategic positioning for the future.

SMM May 11 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper was up 1.01%, SHFE aluminum up 0.86%, SHFE lead edged down slightly, SHFE zinc fell 0.6%, SHFE tin was up 0.38%, and SHFE nickel up 0.86%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 1.09%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.81%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 3.1%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.66%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures fell 2.8%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.86%, rebar up 0.52%, hot-rolled coil up 0.46%, and stainless steel down 0.07%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.85%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.65%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:46, LME metals were nearly all up. LME copper rose 0.59%, LME aluminum up 0.67%, LME zinc down 0.31%, LME lead edged up slightly, LME tin up 1.16%, and LME nickel up 1.29%. Precious metals, as of 11:46, COMEX gold fell 0.77% and COMEX silver rose 0.66%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.96%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.68%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.14%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.62%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 5.07% to 2,474.5 points. As of 11:46 on May 11, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Lead: An SMM survey showed that in April, refined lead supply from secondary lead enterprises edged up MoM, mainly driven by production resumptions at previously idled enterprises and restocking of raw materials to boost output... Macro Front China: [NBS: April CPI Up 1.2% YoY, PPI Up 2.8% YoY, PPI Growth Expanded] NBS data showed that in April 2026, the national consumer price index rose 1.2% YoY. Among them, urban areas were up 1.2% and rural areas up 1.0%; food prices fell 1.6%, while non-food prices rose 1.8%; consumer goods prices rose 1.4%, and services prices rose 0.9%. On average from January to April, the national CPI was up 0.9% YoY. In April, the national CPI rose 0.3% MoM. Among them, urban areas were up 0.3% and rural areas up 0.1%; food prices fell 1.6%, while non-food prices rose 0.7%; consumer goods prices rose 0.1%, and services prices rose 0.5%. In April 2026, national industrial producer ex-factory prices rose 2.8% YoY and 1.7% MoM. Industrial producer purchase prices rose 3.5% YoY and 2.1% MoM. For the January–April average, industrial producer ex-factory prices were up 0.2% from the same period last year, and industrial producer purchase prices were up 0.5%. Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Division of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the April 2026 CPI and PPI data. The main characteristics of PPI MoM movements this month were as follows: First, international input factors drove up prices in China's petroleum-related industries. Rising international crude oil prices drove up prices in domestic petroleum-related industries. Specifically, prices in the petroleum and natural gas extraction industry rose 18.5% MoM, petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industry prices rose 16.4%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing prices rose 8.3%, chemical fiber manufacturing prices rose 5.6%, and rubber and plastics products industry prices rose 1.7%. Second, increased demand in some domestic industries drove prices higher. Rapid growth in computing power demand and accelerated electrification pushed optical fiber manufacturing prices up 22.5% MoM, external storage devices and components prices up 3.2%, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices up 0.2%. Restocking demand for thermal coal was released, combined with increased non-power coal demand from chemical and metallurgical industries, driving coal mining and washing industry prices up 1.9%. Continued advancement of manufacturing equipment upgrades drove increased steel demand, pushing ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing industry prices up 0.6%. Third, competition order in the Chinese market continued to improve, with prices in related industries rising or declines narrowing. Efforts to address "involution-style" competition continued to show results, with lithium-ion battery manufacturing prices up 1.6% MoM, new energy vehicle manufacturing prices down 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today. As no reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 500 million yuan was achieved. US dollar: As of 11:46, the US dollar index was up 0.24% at 98.08. Data from the US Department of Labor showed that US April non-farm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, thanks to strong corporate earnings and enterprises' effective response to supply chain disruptions triggered by the Iran war. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, in line with economists' expectations. From trade to immigration to tax policy, changes across various fronts posed challenges for enterprises, but most did not resort to large-scale layoffs. At the same time, enterprises appeared to take various intertwined headwinds in stride. Robust consumer demand meant that despite news of high-profile layoffs at well-known companies, low hiring was often accompanied by relatively low levels of layoffs. Data from the Department of Labor and human resources firm ADP earlier this week showed that the job market was stabilizing. Strong hiring in healthcare and social assistance also underpinned overall employment figures. US equities at or near record highs boosted confidence among corporate CEOs. The full impact of the conflict with Iran and the resulting rise in energy prices had yet to manifest in the labour market. Rising US oil prices had put greater pressure on lower-income households, which could dampen travel and services spending, in turn dragging on hiring in sectors such as retail and leisure. The impact of higher oil prices was particularly severe for airlines. However, these effects had yet to show up clearly in monthly employment data. According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June was 93.8%, with a 6.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through July was 88.8%, with a 10.8% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut and a 0.3% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data) Goldman Sachs expects the US Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in December 2026 and March 2027, compared with its previous forecast of cuts in September and December this year. A CITIC Securities research report noted that US nonfarm payrolls in April 2026 came in above expectations, while the unemployment rate of 4.3% was in line with expectations. We believe April data better reflected the current state of the US job market than the previous two months: first, one-off factors diminished in April; second, the enterprise response rate was higher in April; and third, the Birth-death model impact was the smallest among the last four data releases. Demand side, the US labour market in April exhibited overall resilience with marginally increasing layoff pressure. Supply side, the labour force participation rate and employment-population ratio declined, but the prime-age (25–54) participation rate remained stable, suggesting it was not a large-scale exit of core labour force but rather aging and retirement factors dragging down the overall participation rate. Regarding US Fed monetary policy, we maintain our previous view: after Waller takes over, if the Iran situation eases and oil prices pull back, driving inflation expectations lower, the base case for H2 is one interest rate cut of 25 bps. Other currencies: Bearish yen positions decreased significantly after Japanese authorities intervened to support the yen, highlighting how official action curbed this crowded trade. According to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), leveraged funds reduced their net short positions on the yen in the week ending May 5. Currently, their net short position in the Japanese yen stood at 61,340 contracts, valued at approximately $4.9 billion, hitting the lowest level in nearly a month. Meanwhile, asset management firms also cut 13,839 short contracts, bringing their open interest down to 10,653 contracts. "Given the intervention risk and strong official warnings, chasing yen shorts near the 160 level has become unattractive," said Stefan Rittner, Senior Portfolio Manager at Allianz Global Investors. He held a neutral stance on the USD/JPY exchange rate. However, he noted that "despite the yen's already cheap valuation, persistent structural headwinds limit the scope for a sustained rebound"; moreover, further intervention risks are expected to rise once the USD/JPY rate approaches its previous highs again. (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released today include US April existing home sales annualized total and China's April M2 money supply year-on-year. In addition, attention should be paid to: US Treasury Secretary Bessent's visit to Japan, where he will meet with the Japanese Prime Minister, the central bank governor, and the Finance Minister. Crude oil: As of 11:46, oil prices in both markets surged significantly, with WTI up 4.65% and Brent up 4.17%. Renewed tensions between the US and Iran supported oil prices. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump posted on social media on May 10, expressing dissatisfaction with Iran's response, calling it "completely unacceptable." This statement cast a shadow over the already fragile Middle East ceasefire situation. Oil prices jumped sharply after the news broke. (Wallstreetcn) Data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler showed that two more fully loaded crude oil tankers switched off their trackers while passing through the Strait of Hormuz last week to evade Iranian attacks. Data indicated that the very large crude carrier "Basrah Energy" loaded 2 million barrels of Upper Zakum crude oil from ADNOC's Zirku terminal on May 1 and passed through the Strait of Hormuz on May 6. The vessel discharged its cargo at the Fujairah tanker terminal on May 11. It remained unclear which company chartered the tanker owned and managed by shipping company Sinokor. ADNOC and its buyers had recently dispatched tankers through the Strait of Hormuz on multiple occasions to transport crude oil, in response to the issue of stranded oil in the Persian Gulf caused by Middle East conflicts. Another very large crude carrier, Kiara M, switched off its transponder and departed the Persian Gulf on Sunday, carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil. The discharge destination of this San Marino-flagged tanker remained unclear. (Jin Shi Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

According to a report released Thursday by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, US enterprises announced 83,387 layoffs in April, up 38% MoM from 60,620 in March, but down 21% compared to the same period last year at 105,441.

SMM May 7: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE copper rose 0.43%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.76%, SHFE lead fell 0.36%, SHFE zinc rose 0.41%, SHFE tin rose 3.16%, and SHFE nickel fell 3.33%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 1.85%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.49%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.08%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 2.03%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures rose 4.79%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore rose 0.55%, rebar rose 0.68%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.29%, and stainless steel fell 1.12%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.22%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.2%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.22%, LME aluminum fell 1.16%, LME lead rose 0.23%, LME zinc fell 0.29%, LME tin fell 1.71%, and LME nickel fell 0.13%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold rose 0.39% and COMEX silver rose 1.35%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.11%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 3.43%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 3.21%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.71%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 3.35%, closing at 2,355.5 points. As of 11:41 on May 7, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot cargo and fundamentals Nickel: On May 7, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 5,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,150 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front China: [PBOC reverse repo operations resulted in a net drain of 99.2 billion yuan for the day] The PBOC conducted 27 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 126.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net drain of 99.2 billion yuan was achieved for the day. [HKEX CEO: LME warehouses in Hong Kong nearing full capacity] HKEX CEO Bonnie Y. Chan said that the storage capacity of a series of LME-approved warehouses in Hong Kong was nearing saturation. The LME began approving metal warehouses in Hong Kong last year. Speaking at a seminar during LME Asia Week in Hong Kong, Chan said the LME currently had 15 warehouses in Hong Kong, compared with just 4 a year ago. She called this an important milestone in establishing physical market connectivity. LME and Hong Kong Exchanges will explore more collaborative projects, including futures and RMB-denominated products, to build a comprehensive commodities ecosystem in Asia. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.01% to 98.01. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said on Wednesday that the war with Iran increasingly appeared to be an inflationary shock to the economy. Although the impact on employment and economic growth was not yet evident, concerns about supply chain disruptions and sustained price increases were intensifying. "This is not yet a 'stagflation' shock," meaning the kind that hits the job market while pushing up inflation and forces the US Fed to decide which of its policy objectives faces greater risk, Goolsbee said after attending the Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles. "This is just an inflation shock. And the longer this persists, the more uneasy I become." According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 93.5%, with a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut probability of 6.5%. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 86.5%, with cumulative probabilities of a 25-basis-point cut at 13.0% and a 50-basis-point cut at 0.5%. (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: On the first day of resumed trading in the Japanese market, the yen broadly stabilized against other G10 currencies and Asian currencies. However, analysts noted that the yen's downside room against the US dollar is likely to be limited due to potential foreign exchange intervention by Japanese authorities. Analysts at Maybank stated in a foreign exchange research report that the unpredictability of Japanese authorities' actions would limit the upside room for USD/JPY in the short term. Given that three suspected interventions have already occurred after the currency pair breached the 157.00 level, the market is now increasingly wary of pushing the dollar above that level. (Jin10 Data) Data: China's April foreign exchange reserves (TBD), US April Challenger enterprise layoffs, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2, US March construction spending MoM, US April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, Eurozone March retail sales MoM, France March trade balance, and Switzerland April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate are scheduled for release today. In addition, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a panel discussion at a conference. Crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.86% and Brent up 0.87%. The market weighed the prospects of a Middle East peace agreement. A decline in US crude oil inventory last week supported oil prices. US EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory for the week ending May 1 was -648,000 barrels, compared to the previous value of -796,000 barrels. US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending May 1 was -2.313 million barrels, versus expectations of -3.291 million barrels and a previous value of -6.234 million barrels. US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week ending May 1 was -5.224 million barrels, compared to the previous value of -7.121 million barrels. According to federal data released Wednesday, US energy inventories continued to decline rapidly due to supply shocks caused by the Middle East war, highlighting the tightening supply problem as the energy crisis continued to spread. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), refined product inventories, including diesel, plunged by 1.3 million barrels last week to the lowest level since April 2003. These inventories are currently 11% below the five-year seasonal average. Due to refinery shutdowns, diesel prices recently hit record highs in Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan. (CNN) According to a person familiar with the matter, the Trump administration is exploring the use of oil resources beneath US military bases and other Department of Defense sites to replenish the nation's dwindling emergency reserves. The source said no decision has been made on this potential move. This comes as the US government has pledged to explore innovative ways to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which was further depleted during the Iran war. (Jin10 Data) According to a foreign media survey, OPEC's crude oil production fell to a 36-year low last month as the ongoing Iran war continued to obstruct Persian Gulf exports and forced more oil fields to shut down. The survey showed that OPEC's April crude oil production decreased by 420,000 barrels per day to 20.55 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 1990, mainly dragged down by further production declines in Kuwait and Iran. The survey showed that Kuwait saw the largest production drop last month, with daily output falling by 470,000 barrels to 800,000 barrels per day, less than one-third of pre-war levels. The country's exports have fallen to just 22,000 barrels per day. Iran followed, with production declining by 180,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day, doubling the cumulative production cuts since the war began. OPEC also suffered another blow last week. The UAE announced its withdrawal from the organization, following years of friction with the group's leader Saudi Arabia over production limits. The April survey still included UAE data, as the UAE's withdrawal did not officially take effect until May 1. (Bloomberg) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Editor's Note: During the Labour Day holiday when the Chinese market was closed, global macro developments, commodity markets, and ex-China policy dynamics continued to evolve, with multiple external factors potentially impacting post-holiday market performance. To help market participants accurately grasp market trends and conduct rational market analysis, SMM has systematically compiled key macro developments and major industry news during the holiday, along with a summary of this week's critical data and event periods, for industry reference. Internationally, geopolitical developments, energy landscape, ex-China monetary policy, and trade policy all saw significant changes. Geopolitical tensions resurfaced, intermittently disrupting global energy markets and briefly driving international oil prices into a rapid short-term rise. Major global central bank policies continued to diverge. The US Fed released its latest policy signal — New York Fed President Williams publicly stated on Monday that if inflation continues to pull back toward the 2% policy target, the US Fed will cut interest rates at an appropriate time. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its third consecutive rate hike on Tuesday, raising the cash rate from 4.1% to 4.35%, officially reversing its previous accommodative monetary policy cycle, further widening the divergence in global liquidity landscape. On the energy export front, according to Bloomberg on May 4, US crude oil exports continued to climb over the past nine weeks, with cumulative exports exceeding 250 million barrels, surpassing Saudi Arabia to reclaim the position of the world's largest crude oil exporter. Global trade and foreign exchange markets also saw notable shifts. In trade, according to CCTV News, on May 1 local time, US President Trump stated that due to the EU's failure to fulfill a previously agreed trade deal, the US would impose additional tariffs on automobiles and trucks imported from the EU next week, raising the rate to 25% — subsequent changes in the global trade landscape warrant continued attention. In the foreign exchange market, Japan intervened in the currency market three times between April 30 and May 4. A relevant official from Japan's Ministry of Finance simultaneously interpreted related IMF rules, explicitly classifying the three-day intervention operations as a single operation, with a clear intent to stabilize the yen exchange rate. On industrial policy, Indonesia introduced resource export control measures, planning to levy export taxes and windfall taxes on coal and nickel products, which may impact global energy and non-ferrous metal supply chains, pricing systems, and related commodity markets. This week, major economic data in and outside China will be released in quick succession. Highly watched data including China's foreign exchange reserves, gold reserves data, China's import and export data (TBD), and US April non-farm payrolls data will be published sequentially. Meanwhile, SMM will comprehensively review price movements across metal categories during the holiday, and combining the latest variables in and outside China, is expected to publish post-holiday market trend outlooks to provide professional reference for industry trading, production, and strategic planning. Stay tuned. ※Holiday Macro News ►Domestic [Baiyun Airport Port Sees Record-High Canton Fair Foreign Arrivals Exceeding 540,000] On the last day of the Labour Day holiday, coinciding with the closing of the 139th Canton Fair, reporters learned from the Baiyun Border Inspection Station that since the opening of this Canton Fair, as of 0:00 on May 5, Baiyun Airport port handled over 1.14 million inbound and outbound passengers, up 14.5% YoY. Foreign business travelers became the core driver of port passenger flow growth, with inbound and outbound foreigners exceeding 540,000, up 20.8% YoY, setting a new historical record for port passenger flow during the same Canton Fair period. (CCTV News) [National Railways Carried Over 100 Million Passengers Cumulatively During Labour Day Holiday] According to China State Railway Group Co., Ltd., national railways carried 20.383 million passengers on May 4. Since the launch of Labour Day holiday transport on April 29, national railways have cumulatively carried 117 million passengers, with transport operations safe, stable, and orderly. On May 5, return passenger flows continue to rise, with national railways expected to carry 23 million passengers and 2,225 additional passenger trains planned. (CCTV News) [China Bulk Commodity Price Index at 132.1 Points in April, Up 20.2% YoY] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the April China Bulk Commodity Price Index on May 5. The index stood at 132.1 points in April, up 1.7% MoM and up 20.2% YoY. Among the 50 bulk commodities under key monitoring by the federation, 38 saw MoM price increases in April. Among them, paraxylene, methanol, and polypropylene led the gains, up 22.4%, 14.5%, and 11.8% MoM respectively. ►Overseas [US Illegal Tariff Refunds Delayed by One Day, Earliest Distribution Starting May 12] US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) stated that the first batch of electronic refunds for tariffs ruled illegal by the US Supreme Court is expected to begin distribution no earlier than May 12. The US Court of International Trade had previously expected refunds to start on May 11, but this has been delayed by one day for undisclosed reasons. (CCTV News) [Senior Iranian Commander: Iran Is Controlling the Strait of Hormuz, US Cannot Reverse the Current Situation] Senior commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Yadollah Javani confirmed in an interview on May 4 that Iran is controlling the Strait of Hormuz, that any passing vessel must obtain Iranian permission to ensure safe passage, and that hostile forces' ships attempting forced transit will be dealt with resolutely. Yadollah Javani dismissed US President Trump's claim of "clearing" the strait's shipping lanes for humanitarian reasons as a lie, stating that Iran would prevail if the confrontation escalated. He said the US could never restore the situation to before February 28, nor reverse the current state of affairs. (CCTV News) [Trump refuses to confirm whether US-Iran ceasefire agreement remains in effect] On May 4, US President Trump refused to clarify whether the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran remained in effect during an interview. When asked whether the ceasefire had ended and whether military strikes could resume, Trump said: "I can't tell you that. If I answered, you'd say this guy isn't smart enough to be president." Earlier that day, Trump warned in an interview that if Iran attempted to attack US ships in the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf, they "will be totally destroyed." However, he subsequently stated that from a military standpoint, the conflict with Iran was "essentially over." (CCTV) [Qatar condemns attack on UAE oil tanker in Strait of Hormuz] Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on the 4th, strongly condemning a drone attack on an oil tanker operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company of the UAE while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a serious violation of international law and the principle of freedom of navigation. The statement said Qatar firmly opposes using the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure tool, called for the unconditional reopening of the strait, and emphasized that freedom of navigation through this vital waterway is an established principle that cannot be compromised. The statement noted that the continued closure of the strait would jeopardize the vital interests of countries in the region. Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reaffirmed its support for all measures taken by the UAE to protect its assets. (Xinhua) [US Fed "No. 3" speaks: Interest rate cuts will eventually come if inflation pulls back, but timing has been forced to delay] New York Fed President Williams publicly stated on Monday that as long as inflation pulls back toward the US Fed's 2% target as expected, the US Fed will eventually need to cut interest rates . However, due to inflation running higher than expectations this year, the timing of interest rate cuts has been forced to delay, though the overall policy direction has not fundamentally changed. Williams told reporters after delivering a speech in New York on Monday: "As inflation moves lower, we will eventually need to cut interest rates at some point to match fundamentals. Inflation has been higher than previously expected this year, and in my view, this only delays the timing of rate cuts and does not change the overall policy logic." Last week, the US Fed decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged, but internal policy disagreements became prominent, with three officials opposing the easing bias implied in the meeting statement, preferring more neutral language to release signals that rates could move either up or down going forward. Regarding the controversial wording, Williams was clear in his stance: he fully endorsed the current statement's language, believing that based on day-to-day economic data, there was no sufficient reason to support a rate hike in the short term. [IMF Chief Warns: Prolonged Middle East Conflict Could Trigger More Severe Inflation and Growth Shocks] The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that inflation has begun to intensify, and if the Middle East war continues into 2027 with oil prices rising to around $125 per barrel, the global economy could face a "worse scenario." IMF Managing Director Georgieva stated that the continuation of the war means the organization's previous assumption of only a mild slowdown in global economic growth and only a slight edge up in prices no longer holds. Therefore, the "adverse scenario" set by the IMF has effectively begun to materialize. Speaking at a conference hosted by the Milken Institute, Georgieva noted that long-term inflation expectations remain anchored for now and financial conditions have not yet tightened, but this could change if the war persists. [RBA Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points as Expected — Entering Wait-and-See Mode After "Triple Hike"?] The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its third consecutive rate hike on Tuesday, raising the cash rate from 4.1% to 4.35%, completely reversing last year's monetary easing cycle. The move underscored the central bank's determination to suppress stubborn inflation, making it an outlier among major global central banks — decisively embarking on a new tightening cycle while the US-Iran conflict fueled uncertainty and many central banks chose to stand pat. The RBA's nine-member policy committee approved the rate hike with a vote of 8 in favor and 1 against . RBA Governor Michele Bullock will hold a press conference at 1:30 PM Beijing time to explain the policy decision. The committee emphasized in its statement: "After three rate hikes, monetary policy now has sufficient room to respond to changing conditions , and the committee will focus on its dual mandate of price stability and full employment, taking all necessary measures to achieve its objectives." [Japan Intervened to Boost Yen on "3 Consecutive Days" During Holiday, Claims It "Counts as 1" Under IMF Rule of "Maximum 3 Interventions Within 6 Months"] Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market on three consecutive days during Golden Week, but Japanese officials promptly cited IMF rules stating that the three actions "count as one" — a statement reflecting the government's careful calculation of intervention frequency. A Ministry of Finance official told reporters on May 5 that under relevant IMF regulations, foreign exchange market interventions over three consecutive business days are considered a "single action."The official made the above remarks while accompanying Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama at an international conference held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. By this calculation, the three interventions on April 30, May 2 (Friday), and May 4 (Monday) were counted as one combined action. The official added that even when Japan was on public holiday, interventions could still be counted as long as global markets were open; May 4 was therefore recognized as the last of three consecutive business days starting from April 30. This round of intervention began on April 30, triggered when USD/JPY broke above 160.72. According to Bloomberg's analysis, authorities deployed approximately $34.5 billion that day to support the yen, and the exchange rate rebounded to around 155. However, the effectiveness of the subsequent two interventions diminished notably—the yen briefly strengthened after each intervention before pulling back again. The two subsequent interventions reportedly cost a combined approximately $20 billion. In total, the three interventions in this round are estimated to have exceeded $54 billion in scale. ※Industry News and Corporate Developments [Indonesia Plans to Impose Export and Windfall Taxes on Coal and Nickel to Ease Subsidy Pressure] Indonesia plans to impose export taxes and windfall taxes on coal and nickel as one of the measures to offset the growing subsidy costs in the national budget. Indonesia's Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa stated that the proposed measures are still under discussion with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. "Discussions with the Energy Ministry are ongoing, but what is clear is that the related revenue will be sufficient to help bridge the subsidy gap." Purbaya noted that coal and nickel exports had not previously been subject to export taxes, creating regulatory loopholes that could foster under-invoicing and smuggling, while also limiting customs authorities' ability to inspect goods before shipment. The implementation of export taxes is expected to grant the Directorate General of Customs and Excise (DJBC) greater authority to conduct inspections before goods are exported, thereby helping to close tax loopholes and prevent fiscal leakage. (Wallstreetcn) [250 Million Barrels of Crude Oil Shipped Outside China, US Inventory Falls for Four Consecutive Weeks—How Long Can the World's "Last Supplier" Hold Out?] Over the past nine weeks, a large number of tankers sailed intensively toward the US, loading up along the coast of Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico before heading to destinations such as Japan, Thailand, and even Australia. During this period, the US cumulatively exported over 250 million barrels of crude oil outside China, once again surpassing Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest crude oil exporter. Against the backdrop of the Strait of Hormuz nearing shutdown and Middle Eastern supply disruptions, the US has effectively assumed the role of a critical global energy source. However, this rapid surge in export volume also exposed potential risks. US domestic inventory has been declining notably, with total crude oil and refined product reserves falling for four consecutive weeks and dropping below historical averages, while the production side also faced pressure to maintain output. (Jin Shi Data) [Trump: US Is Taking "Hundreds of Millions of Barrels of Oil" from Venezuela] On May 4, US President Trump spoke at a small business summit on the topic of energy cooperation with Venezuela. Trump stated that the US currently has a "good relationship" with Venezuela and said related actions were "going well." He noted that major energy enterprises had begun entering Venezuela to develop resources. On energy cooperation, Trump said the US was obtaining "hundreds of millions of barrels of oil" from Venezuela and shipping them to US regions including Houston for refining, describing the bilateral relationship as "almost like a partnership." He also emphasized that US oil and natural gas production had reached record highs. (Wallstreetcn) [Trump: Will Impose 25% Tariff on EU Cars and Trucks Exported to the US Next Week] According to CCTV News, on May 1 local time, US President Trump stated that because the EU had not fulfilled the trade agreement already reached between the two sides, the US would impose additional tariffs on cars and trucks imported from the EU next week, raising the rate to 25%. Trump said that if relevant enterprises set up factories and produced in the US, they could be exempt from tariffs. [Hainan LNG Phase II Project Achieved Major Milestone, Expected to Be Fully Completed by 2027] According to PipeChina, a major oil and gas infrastructure project in China — the Hainan LNG Phase II Project — completed the 821-mt dome air-raising operation for Tank No. 3, marking a major milestone for the project. The Hainan LNG receiving terminal Phase I project has construction completed and commissioned 2 LNG storage tanks of 160,000 m³ each, while the Phase II project is constructing 3 new prestressed concrete full-containment LNG storage tanks of 220,000 m³ each. Currently, the overall progress of the Phase II project is approaching 50%, and it is expected to be fully completed by 2027. Once completed, it will add 400 million m³ of gas storage capacity, doubling the peak shaving capacity, and significantly enhancing emergency peak shaving and secure supply capabilities for the entire Hainan Island and the South China coastal region. (CCTV News) [Dongyang Guangming: Subsidiary Signs Computing Power Service Procurement Framework Contract with Estimated Total Value of 16 Billion to 19 Billion Yuan] Dongyang Guangming announced that its subsidiary Dongguan Dongyang Guang Cloud Computing Technology Co., Ltd. signed a Computing Power Service Procurement Framework Contract with a certain Enterprise A, with an estimated total contract value ranging from 16 billion yuan to 19 billion yuan (tax inclusive). The contract term is 60 months after order acceptance, with service fees paid monthly. This cooperation aims to deepen the company's presence in AI computing power and high performance server supporting services, but faces multiple uncertainties including policy and regulatory risks, performance capability, and funding, with uncertain impact on the company's future performance. ※Weekly Macro Preview May 6 Data to be released include China's April RatingDog Services PMI, France's March industrial output MoM, France's April Services PMI final, Germany's April Services PMI final, Eurozone April Services PMI final, UK April Services PMI final, Eurozone March PPI MoM, US April ADP employment, and US April Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. Also notable: 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy. May 7 Data to be released include France's March trade balance, Switzerland's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone March retail sales MoM, US April Challenger enterprise layoffs, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2, US March construction spending MoM, US April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, and China's April foreign exchange reserves. Also notable: 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a panel discussion at a conference. May 8 Data to be released include Germany's March seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM, Germany's March seasonally adjusted trade balance, UK April Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM, Switzerland's April consumer confidence index, Canada's April employment, US April unemployment rate, US April seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, US April average hourly earnings YoY, US April average hourly earnings MoM, US May 1-year inflation expectations preliminary, US May University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary, and US March wholesale sales MoM. Also notable: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will speak; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak; China's refined oil products will enter a new price adjustment window. May 9 Data to be released include China's April trade balance in US dollar terms (TBD) and China's April trade balance (TBD). Also notable: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and San Francisco Fed President Daly will participate in a panel discussion at the Hoover Institution's 2026 Monetary Policy Conference.

SMM, April 17: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market rose nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.14%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.67%. SHFE lead fell 0.39%, and SHFE zinc rose 0.68%. SHFE tin rose 0.34%, and SHFE nickel rose 2.05%. In addition, the continuous contract for casting aluminum futures edged up slightly, and the alumina continuous contract rose 0.68%. The lithium carbonate continuous contract rose 1.84%. The silicon metal continuous contract rose 0.71%. The polysilicon continuous contract fell 0.78%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.06%, rebar rose 0.45%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.24%, and stainless steel rose 2.34%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.45%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.62%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.09%. LME aluminum fell 0.25%, LME lead rose 0.51%, and LME zinc rose 0.25%. LME tin fell 0.31%. LME nickel rose 1.61%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.14%, and COMEX silver rose 0.37%. Domestic precious metals: the SHFE gold continuous contract fell 0.38%, and the SHFE silver continuous contract fell 0.91%. In addition, as of the midday close, the platinum continuous contract fell 1.94%, and the palladium continuous contract fell 1.7%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 4.85%, closing at 2,095 points. As of 11:40 on April 17, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 250 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,040 yuan/mt, down 505 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,455 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front China: [NDRC: This Year Will Focus on Launching a Series of Actions to Expand Effective Investment in Areas Such as "AI+" Infrastructure] The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the morning of April 17 under the series theme of "Getting Off to a Good Start for the 15th Five-Year Plan." Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated that this year the focus will be on areas such as "AI+" infrastructure, urban renewal, the national water network, and new-type energy systems, launching a series of actions to expand effective investment and promote the optimization of supply structure and the expansion of market demand. In terms of institutional and mechanism innovation, we will comprehensively carry out "soft construction" work in central government investment projects to promote the formation of long-term mechanisms for project construction, implementation, operation, and maintenance. At the same time, we will leverage the role of the national venture capital guidance fund to guide and drive social capital in supporting technological innovation and the development of emerging industries. Wang Changlin stated that recently, in response to the impact of changes in the international situation on China's oil and gas imports, the government has adopted comprehensive measures to effectively ensure sufficient domestic oil product supply and stable market operations, fully demonstrating the achievements of China's new-type energy system construction. Going forward, efforts will be made to accelerate the high-quality development of non-fossil energy, coordinate centralized and distributed clean energy development, and make every effort to increase the scale of non-fossil energy power production and consumption. Through the above efforts, it is expected that by 2030, the supply scale of non-fossil energy will increase significantly compared to 2025, and by 2035, it will double compared to 2025. [NDRC: Efforts to Expand Effective Domestic Demand, with a Plan to Formulate the 2026–2030 Implementation Plan for the Strategy of Expanding Domestic Demand] The State Council Information Office held a press conference in the series of "Getting Off to a Good Start in the 15th Five-Year Plan," introducing the relevant situation of promoting high-quality economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the NDRC, stated that since the beginning of this year, the economy has shown positive changes, with notable improvements on both the supply and demand sides, better playing the role of a stabilizer for the global economy, and performing better than the expectations of many institutions and experts in and outside China. Going forward, efforts should focus on five key areas of work. [Pan Gongsheng: Implementing a Moderately Accommodative Monetary Policy and Measures to Boost Consumption] Pan Gongsheng stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will adhere to a domestic demand-driven approach, implement policy measures to boost consumption, vigorously develop the service sector, closely integrate investment in physical assets with investment in human capital, promote productivity growth, accelerate green transformation and sustainable development, unswervingly advance high-level opening-up, and drive high-quality development. The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, support Chinese-style modernization with high-quality financial services, and contribute China's strength to global economic growth. (People's Bank of China) [MIIT and Four Other Departments Jointly Issue the Guidelines for Green Design of Industrial Products (2026 Edition)] MIIT and four other departments jointly issued the Guidelines for Green Design of Industrial Products (2026 Edition). The Guidelines adapt to new changes and requirements in the green and low-carbon development landscape in and outside China, build consensus on green design across industries, and specify 11 key directions, namely long-life design, non-toxic design, lightweight design, energy-saving design, water-saving design, material-saving design, noise reduction design, space-saving design, easy-to-recycle-and-regenerate design, reusable design, and zero-carbon design. TheThe Guidelines further closely integrate 11 green design priority areas with practical industry applications, using 15 key industries as typical examples to develop 126 detailed solutions, guiding product R&D personnel in practicing green design concepts and methods. (MIIT WeChat) [PBOC reverse repo operations achieve net withdrawal of 1.5 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 1.5 billion yuan was achieved on the day. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As a total of 3.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured this week, a net withdrawal of 500 million yuan was achieved for the week. (Jin10 Data) On the US dollar front: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.04% to 98.24. StoneX analyst Matt Simpson said in a research note that, based on technical analysis, the US dollar index may edge up in the short term. On Thursday, the 200-day simple moving average formed a "mildly bullish" pattern, and the two-day relative strength index was in extremely oversold territory. However, there are multiple resistance levels, including the 200-day exponential moving average at 98.44 that bulls need to test — or a level that bears need to watch for signs of reversal to reopen a broader bearish trend. Data shows the US dollar index is currently holding near the 98.249 level. (Jin10 Data) On the data front, US initial jobless claims fell last week, indicating that labour market conditions remained stable, even as employers remained cautious about hiring new workers as the Middle East conflict cast a shadow over the economy. The latest data showed US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 fell by 11,000 to 207,000, below market expectations of 215,000. Initial jobless claims this year have remained within the range of 201,000 to 230,000. While layoffs remain low, the oil price shock from a potential US-Israeli war against Iran may have hindered hiring. Economists said the labour market was already in a state of stagnation before the war broke out, attributable to the uncertainty brought by Trump's sweeping import tariffs and mass deportations. Economists said the Middle East conflict is just another layer of uncertainty facing enterprises. (Jin10 Data) US Fed Governor Miran said that, given the inflation situation that existed before the Middle East conflict, he may again lower his expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Miran said: "If I were to write my dot on the dot plot now, I would lean toward 3 interest rate cuts, possibly 4. I haven't decided yet."In March, Miran expected four 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year, but he noted that the pace of rate cuts could slow down if price trends became "less favorable." According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99.5%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed through June was 1.4%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 98%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 0.5%. (Jin Shi Data) Data: The eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account and eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance data are to be released today. Also worth watching: 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly is scheduled to deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices on both markets declined, with WTI crude down 1.25% and Brent crude down 1.02%. US President Trump, speaking to the media on the White House South Lawn on the 16th, said the US might hold another round of face-to-face negotiations with Iran this weekend, adding that he would consider heading to Pakistan to sign the deal if a peace agreement were reached between the US and Iran. Trump said he hoped to reach a permanent ceasefire peace agreement before the two-week temporary ceasefire agreement with Iran expires, without having to extend it. (Xinhua News Agency) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►