SMM News: Following our previous analysis of the transportation and wind power sectors, this installment shifts focus to the critical demand drivers in the consumer and construction domains: White Goods , Consumer Electronics , and Real Estate-related applications (Elevators and Power Tools). While these sectors individually consume less magnetic material per unit compared to New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), their sheer aggregate volume makes them indispensable pillars of the Neodymium-Praseodymium (Pr-Nd) market. However, data from early 2026 reveals a troubling trend of stagnation and structural contraction across these traditional strongholds. I. White Goods: The Dual Pressure of Production Slumps and Material Substitution In the white goods sector, Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) magnets are primarily utilized in two key applications: compressors for inverter air conditioners and motors for drum and impeller washing machines . 1. Air Conditioners: A Sharp Contraction in Output and Dosage According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China’s cumulative air conditioner production for January-February 2026 stood at 40.118 million units , a staggering 35% year-on-year (YoY) decline compared to the 61.921 million units produced in the same period of 2025. (Reason: This drastic drop is attributed to a combination of factors: firstly, an unusually mild winter across major consumption regions significantly dampened heating demand, leading to a destocking cycle among distributors. Secondly, the real estate sector’s continued downturn has severely curtailed new housing completions, directly reducing the installation of centralized and split AC systems. Lastly, high inventory levels carried over from 2025 forced manufacturers to aggressively cut production schedules in Q1 2026 to avoid capital lock-up.) Looking at the full year, SMM forecasts a marginal growth of 0.96% for 2026, with total annual production projected at 271.095 million units . (Reason: The near-flat growth outlook reflects a mature market saturation where replacement demand, rather than new installations, drives volume. While export markets offer some resilience against domestic weakness, rising trade barriers and logistical costs in key regions like Europe and North America are expected to cap significant expansion.) Applying SMM’s calculation model: Inverter Penetration: 99% NdFeB Motor Penetration: 92% Specific Consumption: Assumed at 100g/unit for 2026. Based on these parameters, the total NdFeB consumption for the air conditioner sector in 2026 is estimated at 24,691 tons , representing a 23% decrease from the 29,163 tons consumed in 2025. The core driver of this decline is twofold: first, the persistently high prices of Pr-Nd since the second half of 2025 have accelerated the industry’s cost-reduction initiatives. Second, there is a clear technological shift towards minimizing rare earth usage. The average single-unit dosage has dropped from 120g/unit in 2025 to 100g/unit in 2026 , as manufacturers optimize motor designs and, in some lower-end models, substitute with ferrite magnets or induction motor technologies where efficiency standards allow. 2. Washing Machines: A Slow Erosion of Demand For January-February 2026, China’s cumulative washing machine production was 18.58 million units , a slight 0.3% YoY decline from the 18.51 million units in the same period of 2025. (Reason: The stability in production volumes masks underlying weakness. The slight dip is primarily due to weak consumer confidence impacting discretionary spending on home appliance upgrades. Furthermore, the export market for washing machines has faced headwinds from sluggish global economic growth and intensified competition from Southeast Asian manufacturing hubs, offsetting modest domestic recovery efforts.) SMM projects a full-year growth rate of 3.1% for 2026. (Reason: This modest recovery is underpinned by government-led "trade-in" subsidy policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption of energy-efficient appliances. Additionally, product innovation in the high-end segment, such as washer-dryer combos and smart features, is expected to stimulate some replacement demand, though the overall ceiling remains low.) Demand Calculation Logic: Drum Washer Penetration: 63% (High-end, 98% use NdFeB) Impeller Washer Penetration: 28% (Mid-range, 50% use NdFeB) Specific Consumption: 290g/unit for drum washers; 240g/unit for impeller washers. Under this model, the total NdFeB demand for washing machines in 2026 is estimated at 27,204.52 tons , a 0.2% decrease from 27,262 tons in 2025. The sector is experiencing a slow but steady erosion of demand. While high-end drum washers rely heavily on efficient NdFeB motors to meet stringent energy labels, the volatility of rare earth prices is prompting manufacturers to cautiously explore alternative motor designs or reduce magnet grades in non-critical applications. Consequently, the industry has adopted a strategy of gradual reduction rather than abrupt substitution, balancing performance requirements with cost control. Outlook: The trajectory for white goods in 2026 is undeniably pessimistic. Both production volumes and technical intensity (dosage per unit) are trending downward, creating a double drag on Pr-Nd demand. II. Consumer Electronics: Volume Resilience vs. Intensity Decline The consumer electronics sector, modeled by SMM, comprises four main segments: Mobile Phones , Tablets , Desktops/Laptops , and Smartwatches . These devices utilize NdFeB primarily for acoustic components (speakers/receivers) and haptic feedback motors, with emerging uses in magnetic charging interfaces. The specific consumption is generally low, ranging from 2-5g/unit , except for desktops which average 15g/unit . Market Performance (Jan-Feb 2026): Mobile Phones: 220 million units (+6.8% YoY). Micro-computer Equipment: 41.956 million units (-31% YoY). Breakdown: 21% Tablets, 27% Desktops, 52% Laptops. Smartwatches: 8.196 million units (+7.8% YoY). (Reason: The divergence in performance is stark. Mobile phone growth is driven by the global rollout of AI-enabled handsets and the replacement cycle for 5G devices, particularly in emerging markets. Conversely, the sharp collapse in micro-computer equipment reflects the post-pandemic normalization of demand; the massive stockpiling of devices during 2020-2022 has led to a prolonged digestion phase. Additionally, extended device lifespans due to improved hardware durability have further suppressed replacement rates for PCs and tablets.) 2026 Full-Year Forecast: SMM anticipates a 1% growth for mobile phones and micro-computers combined, and a 5% growth for smartwatches. (Reason: The muted outlook for computing devices stems from persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and corporate IT budget tightening. For smartwatches, growth is fueled by increasing health-monitoring capabilities and deeper ecosystem integration with smartphones. However, the entire sector faces a cloud of uncertainty due to escalating geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains and rising memory chip prices, which may force OEMs to revise production targets downward later in the year.) Demand Estimation: Mobile Phones: 3,109.8 tons Micro-computers: 2,018.9 tons Smartwatches: 125.06 tons Total 2026 Demand: 5,253.76 tons , a 3% decline from 5,421.19 tons in 2025. The primary driver for this decline is the continuous, albeit slow, reduction in specific consumption. As miniaturization advances and alternative magnetic materials improve, the amount of NdFeB required per device is shrinking. Despite the relatively low single-unit dosage, the massive scale of the consumer electronics industry ensures it remains a significant consumer of NdFeB. Moreover, this sector is characterized by highly standardized supply chains, where major OEMs maintain binding agreements with certified magnet suppliers, making demand relatively stable but resistant to price-driven spikes. III. Real Estate Related: Elevators and Power Tools The final segment covers industries tightly coupled with the real estate cycle: Elevators and Handheld Power Tools . 1. Elevators: Policy Support vs. Structural Headwinds In January-February 2026, elevator production reached 150,000 units , a 7.1% YoY increase . (Reason: This short-term surge is largely attributable to the acceleration of projects that were delayed in late 2025, as developers rushed to meet pre-delivery deadlines before stricter regulatory inspections took effect. Additionally, government mandates for retrofitting old residential communities with elevators in urban renewal zones provided a temporary boost to order books.) However, SMM forecasts a full-year contraction of -3% for 2026. (Reason: The long-term outlook is grim due to the fundamental slowdown in new residential construction starts, which remain at multi-year lows. The debt crisis plaguing major property developers continues to stall new project launches, directly impacting the demand for new elevator installations. While the retrofit market offers some support, it is insufficient to offset the collapse in new building commissions.) Calculation: Energy-saving Elevator Penetration: 90% Specific Consumption: 6 kg/unit (for energy-saving models). Total 2026 Demand: 7,222.6 tons , a 1.3% increase from 7,125.3 tons in 2025. (Reason for Growth: The slight increase in total tonnage despite falling production volumes is entirely driven by the rising penetration of energy-saving elevators. Stricter national energy efficiency standards (GB standards) are forcing manufacturers to adopt permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSM) over traditional asynchronous motors, thereby increasing the average NdFeB dosage per unit even as the total number of units declines.) 2. Handheld Power Tools: A Direct Casualty of Property Slump Production of handheld power tools in Jan-Feb 2026 was 29.566 million units , down 0.24% YoY . SMM projects a -3% decline for the full year 2026. (Reason: The downturn is inextricably linked to the stagnation in the global and domestic real estate markets. Reduced renovation activities and a slowdown in infrastructure projects have dampened demand for professional-grade tools. Furthermore, high inventory levels in distribution channels across North America and Europe, resulting from over-ordering in 2024, have led to a prolonged period of destocking.) Definition & Scope: According to the National Bureau of Statistics, handheld electric tools refer to portable motor-driven tools operated by hand, including electric drills, grinders, sanders, saws, and screwdrivers . These products are highly sensitive to housing turnover and renovation rates. Demand Calculation: NdFeB Penetration: 60% Specific Consumption: 80g/unit Total 2026 Demand: 9,134 tons , a sharp 13.4% drop from 10,548 tons in 2025. The significant contraction in this sector underscores the deep correlation between the property market and industrial metal demand. As the real estate sector remains in a prolonged adjustment phase, the downstream demand for power tools—and consequently NdFeB—faces sustained pressure. Conclusion The analysis of white goods, consumer electronics, and real estate-related sectors paints a picture of structural weakness for 2026. While niche policy drivers (like energy-saving elevator mandates) provide isolated pockets of growth, the overarching trends are defined by production saturation, inventory destocking, and aggressive material substitution . The combined effect of lower production volumes and reduced single-unit dosages creates a formidable headwind for Pr-Nd prices. In the final installment of this series, we will pivot to the future: examining the burgeoning demand from Low-Altitude Economy (eVTOLs), Robotics (Industrial and Service), and the relentless expansion of Electric Two-Wheelers . These emerging sectors may hold the key to offsetting the declines observed in traditional industries and reshaping the long-term demand curve for rare earth magnets.

SMM News: As of March 20, 2026, the market price for Praseodymium-Neodymium (Pr-Nd) metal in China stabilized temporarily at 890,000–910,000 RMB/ton. This article utilizes the SMM Pr-Nd Terminal Demand Calculation Model to dissect the demand logic for 2026 across three core sectors—New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles, and Wind Power—explaining the current supply-demand dilemma facing the NdFeB magnet and broader Pr-Nd markets.

Apple (AAPL.O) released the latest 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro models featuring the all-new M5 Pro and M5 Max chips, delivering transformative performance gains and artificial intelligence capabilities to the world’s leading professional laptops. With M5 Pro and M5 Max, MacBook Pro features a new CPU with the world’s fastest CPU cores, a next-generation GPU with a neural accelerator built into every core, and higher unified memory bandwidth; its AI performance improved by up to 4 times over the previous generation and by 8 times compared with M1 models. The new MacBook Pro is available in Space Black and Silver, will begin accepting pre-orders tomorrow (March 4), and will officially go on sale on March 11 (Wednesday).

According to a report by Reuters cited in MiningWeekly, a study released by the Cobalt Institute on Wednesday forecasts that cobalt demand will grow faster than supply, easing the cobalt surplus situation in 2024 and shifting to a deficit in the early 2030s. The report was compiled by Benchmark Minerals Intelligence. In the short term, the future of the cobalt market will depend on developments in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the world's largest cobalt producer. At the end of February, the country decided to implement a four-month temporary export ban. Cobalt is a crucial material for the production of lithium batteries used in electric vehicles (EVs).

According to MiningWeekly , citing Reuters, a research report released by the Cobalt Institute on Wednesday predicted that cobalt demand would grow faster than supply, with the surplus in 2024 easing and turning into a shortage in the early 2030s. The report was completed by Benchmark Minerals Intelligence . In the short term, the future of the cobalt market will depend on the actions of the DRC, the world's largest cobalt producer. At the end of February, the country decided to implement a temporary four-month export ban. Cobalt is a key material for lithium battery production in EVs. At the end of February, cobalt prices fell to their lowest level in nine years. To address the market surplus, this central African nation implemented an export ban. Since then, cobalt prices have risen by 60% to $16/lb. Aside from the uncertainty brought about by the DRC's export ban, global cobalt supply is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5% over the next few years, with the DRC's share of the global market decreasing from 76% last year to 65% before 2030, as Indonesia's cobalt production rapidly increases, with its share rising from 12% to 22%. Meanwhile, driven by the development of the EV market, global cobalt demand (excluding government inventories) is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7%, reaching 400,000 mt by the early 2030s. In 2024, global cobalt consumption will reach 222,000 mt. Before 2030, the proportion of cobalt used in EVs will increase from 43% in 2024 to 57%, as the growth in demand from smartphones, laptops, superalloys, and other industrial uses slows down. The report stated that in 2024, the cobalt market would have a surplus of 36,000 mt, accounting for 15% of demand, compared to 25,000 mt in 2023.

On April 16, at the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Aluminum Industry Expo - Main Forum , hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), SMM Metal Exchange Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., and co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Promotion Service Co., Ltd., Luo Yu, member of the Standing Committee of the CPC Lezhi County People's Government Committee and Deputy County Magistrate, shared the planning and development of Lezhi County's aluminum industry. Where is Lezhi? The First Stop East of Chengdu · The Golden Section Point of Chengdu-Chongqing ► County Overview Lezhi County is located in the central part of the Chengdu-Chongqing region and is the hometown of Marshal Chen Yi, a founding father of the People's Republic of China. ►Location: Gateway to Chengdu's Eastward Expansion, Hub Connecting Chengdu and Chongqing In terms of location, Lezhi's relationship with Chengdu and Chongqing is similar to Kunshan's with Shanghai and Suzhou, or Dongguan's with Guangdong and Shenzhen. ► Position: Driving High-Quality Integrated Development in the Central Chengdu-Chongqing Region ►Position: A Place Where Multiple National and Provincial Strategies Overlap Lezhi is located at the golden section point of the straight-line distance between Chengdu and Chongqing, and is at the intersection of the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin-City Economic Circle, the Chengdu Metropolitan Area, and the Chengdu Plain Economic Zone, known as the "three-circle overlap." ►Transportation Advantages: A Three-Dimensional Transportation Network Integrating Highways, Railways, and Air Travel Highways: Railways: Lezhi is the only county-level city in China where two high-speed railways with a designed speed of 350 km/h intersect and share a station in a crossover configuration. Aviation: Distances from Lezhi County to nearby airports: 50 km to Tianfu International Airport, 105 km to Shuangliu International Airport, 169 km to Jiangbei International Airport, and 138 km to the newly planned Bishan International Airport. It is at an important node of the main corridor connecting the international airports of Chengdu and Chongqing, offering convenient direct flights nationwide and global connectivity. ►Surrounding Industrial Landscape What does Lezhi do? Concentrating the county's efforts on developing the aluminum-based materials industry ►Focusing on the Development of the Aluminum-Based Materials Industry The overall scale of the domestic aluminum semis market is expanding, with sustained growth in market demand. From a national perspective: In 2024, China's aluminum semis production reached 67.831 million mt, showing continuous growth over the past five years. From a provincial perspective: In 2024, Sichuan Province's aluminum semis production reached 2.5105 million mt, up 20.5% YoY, ranking 9th nationwide. From a demand perspective: The proportion of industrial aluminum extrusion continues to rise, with production reaching 11.49 million mt in 2024, accounting for approximately 44%. The Sichuan and Chongqing region is a key aluminum production area and aluminum processing production site in China. The processed products mainly include aluminum extrusions, aluminum plate/sheet and strip, aluminum rods and wires, and aluminum castings. Benefiting from a relatively complete industrial system, the region also boasts strong end-use consumption capacity for aluminum. However, compared to the capacity and production of aluminum processing, the capacity and production of aluminum in the Sichuan and Chongqing region are insufficient. Taking 2023 as a reference, the region's aluminum processing production was approximately 4.09 million mt, accounting for 8.7% of the national total, while the total aluminum production was only about 1.5 million mt, accounting for 3.53% of the domestic total, making it a net aluminum-importing region. In February 2023, Sichuan and Chongqing jointly formulated and issued the "Work Plan for the Collaborative Development of the Sichuan-Chongqing Aluminum Industry Chain." The plan proposes that by 2025, the output value of the Sichuan-Chongqing aluminum industry should reach 400 billion yuan, a group of leading enterprises and specialized and innovative enterprises should be cultivated, and a top-tier high-end aluminum material manufacturing base in the country should be established, aiming to create the strongest high-end aluminum material manufacturing base nationwide. The two regions will jointly promote the supporting of the industry chain, facilitate green and low-carbon development, build an industrial service system, and collaborate in seven aspects to form an "internal circulation" of aluminum industry enterprises in Sichuan and Chongqing, promoting the coordinated and rapid development of the aluminum industry in the region. In terms of market demand, the Sichuan and Chongqing regions regard the development of the aluminum industry as an important support for building two trillion-yuan industrial clusters in electronic information and automotive industries. ♦Automotive Industry •In recent years, 45 well-known automobile manufacturers, including FAW, Toyota, Changan, Great Wall Motors, Seres, Hyundai, and Lifan, have established operations in Sichuan and Chongqing. •In 2024, the annual automobile production in Sichuan and Chongqing reached 3.43 million units, up 4.1% YoY, accounting for 10.9% of the national total, with an output value exceeding 600 billion yuan. •The automobile ownership in Chengdu and Chongqing both exceeded 6 million units, ranking first and third in the country, respectively. This indicates a robust demand for lightweight aluminum extrusions and other parts in the automotive industry in Sichuan and Chongqing. ♦3C Electronics Industry •As one of the world's largest electronic information manufacturing clusters, the Chengdu-Chongqing region has gathered a large number of upstream and downstream enterprises in the electronic information industry chain. In 2023, the cluster's over 2,000 enterprises above designated size achieved a revenue of 17.1 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of the national total. Two-thirds of the world's iPads, 50% of laptops, 10% of smartphones, and 15% of smart projectors are manufactured in the Chengdu-Chongqing region. This demonstrates that the rapid development of the 3C electronics industry inevitably leads to a huge demand for aluminum heat sinks, aluminum frames, and casings. On July 19, 2024, Lezhi County held the Eighth Plenary Session of the 15th County Party Committee, clarifying that it would rely on the rapidly growing market prospects of NEVs and consumer electronics to focus on developing lightweight aluminum extrusions for automobiles and aluminum extrusion components for 3C electronics, forming automotive parts and electronic information industry clusters, and building a distinctive aluminum-based material industry hub in central Sichuan and Chongqing. ► Fen'an Aluminum's Southwest Base Top 5 Aluminum Extrusion Manufacturers in China Top 10 Leading Aluminum Extrusion Brands in China Top 20 Industrial Aluminum Extrusion Manufacturers in China China Manufacturing Champion Enterprise One of the Largest Aluminum Extrusion Product R&D and Manufacturing Enterprises in China 110 patents, including 46 invention patents The Lezhi Base has an annual production capacity of 200,000 mt of new-type high-end aluminum alloy extrusions Representative Products: What Does Lezhi Offer? We are fully committed to supporting enterprises in investing, establishing businesses, and growing in Lezhi ►Park Platform Approved as a provincial-level economic development zone by the Sichuan Provincial Government in January 2019 Park Overview: Planned area of 11.38 sq km, built-up area of 7.81 sq km, encompassing two parks (Xijiao and Wenfeng), with 230 existing industrial enterprises ►Industrial System 1. Aluminum-Based Materials Industry: Focuses on the finished aluminum semis industry, with a priority on attracting enterprises specializing in lightweight automotive aluminum extrusions and 3C electronic aluminum components. 2. Electronic Information Industry: Primarily attracts electronic information enterprises specializing in electronic components, intelligent terminals, camera modules, and aluminum structural components for 3C electronic products. 3. Smart Logistics Industry: Centered around Shanghai Yunda, focuses on attracting logistics supporting projects such as express delivery, e-commerce logistics, urban and rural distribution, and cold chain warehousing. ►Investment Policies Eight Supportive Policies for the Aluminum-Based Materials Industry 1. Support for Building Industrial Ecosystems and Strengthening Industrial Chains: 20% subsidy for fixed asset investments 2. Support for Public Service Platform Construction: 1 million yuan subsidy 3. Support for Enterprises in Attracting Talent and Maintaining Employment Stability 4. Support for Trade Entity Operations 5. Encouragement of Technological Innovation by Enterprises: Maximum reward of 5 million yuan 6. Support for Enterprise Brand Creation 7. Strengthening Financial Service Support 8. Support for Enterprises in Expanding Markets ►Cost Advantages Costs of Water, Electricity, and Gas Resources ►Cost Advantages ►Service Mechanism We sincerely invite: You to invest and establish businesses in Lezhi, become partners in Lezhi's urban development, and experience the "Lezhi Service" and "Lezhi Efficiency" to achieve optimal development and maximum profits. We solemnly promise: To "be present when needed, not interfere when not, act promptly, and ensure tasks are completed effectively," fully guaranteeing project construction and supporting enterprise development. 》Click to view the special report on the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Aluminum Industry Expo