[Bearish Precious Metals] US Treasuries and the US dollar stayed high, with opportunity cost pressure still present. Currently, US Treasury yields remained overall in a high range, with the 10-year yield trading around 4.4%-4.5%, and real interest rates staying high continued to raise the holding cost of precious metals. Meanwhile, the US dollar index was still at relatively strong levels, weighing on precious metals passively, forming a dual pressure pattern of "rising yields + stronger dollar," capping short-term upside room. Institutional capital continued to flow out, with the trend of ETF reduction not yet reversed. Global gold ETFs sustained a net outflow trend, with holdings of the leading SPDR Gold ETF continuing to pull back, and onshore gold ETFs in China also facing persistent redemption pressure. The absence of incremental institutional buying resulted in a lack of rebound momentum in futures, with each rally facing concentrated selling from previously trapped longs taking profits, and the trend-like rally lacking capital support. Tighter trading rules combined with a consumption off-season leave short-term support weak. Starting July 2, the SHFE raised the trading margin requirement for SHFE gold futures to 16% and widened the daily price limit to 14%. In the short term, high-leverage speculative funds reduced leverage and exited, leading to a marginal contraction in market liquidity. At the same time, the current June–August period is the traditional off-season for global gold jewelry consumption, and during price declines, insufficient buying interest is prone to amplifying fluctuations. [Bullish Precious Metals] Waller confirmed cooling inflation, with tightening expectations marginally easing. In a public speech in Sintra on Wednesday evening, Waller explicitly stated that “US inflation upside risks have eased somewhat over the past four weeks.” This comment directly eased market concerns about persistent inflation stickiness, and precious metals prices rose during the speech. Overall market rate hike expectations cooled, providing fundamental support for valuation recovery in precious metals and serving as the core bullish driver in the short term. US June ADP employment missed expectations, sending signals of a cooling labor market. US private-sector employment rose by 98,000 in June according to ADP, below the market expectation of 118,000, the smallest increase since March, with the previous month revised down to 122,000. The data showed that job seekers’ search periods are lengthening and the pace of job creation is slowing. The cooling labor market will gradually feed into wage growth and core services inflation, weakening the US Fed’s core rationale for maintaining tight policy and raising rates. The US June ISM Manufacturing PMI overall fell short of market expectations. The data overall showed a combination of “slower expansion + rapid cost cooling.” The Prices Paid index for manufacturing dropped sharply by 9.1 points to 73, the largest monthly decline since July 2022, with the pace of raw material cost increases slowing significantly. Inflationary pressures on industrial products have rapidly released, reinforcing the certainty of the inflation decline and creating room for the US Fed to pivot policy. [Macro Summary] Currently, the June ADP and PMI data fell short of expectations, releasing signals of cooling employment and inflation. Coupled with Warsh confirming on Wednesday evening that inflation has moderated, market expectations for US Fed rate hikes have shown a marginal pullback. This week's remaining key data window is the June non-farm payrolls report and the weekly initial jobless claims data. The results will directly verify the sustainability of the cooling trend and determine the extent of correction in rate hike expectations.

In May, China's silver concentrate imports fell 15.8% MoM, with Peru remaining the top supplier. Refined silver exports dropped 11% MoM, while imports plunged 69% as the price premium narrowed. Trade windows are gradually normalizing toward June.

2026-06-10 15:25PM UTC While markets have been focused on the recent sharp decline in gold prices, the broader precious metals sector has also experienced significant selling pressure, with platinum-group metals suffering some of the steepest losses, according to a report from Bank of America. Both platinum and palladium recently fell to their lowest levels of the year amid continued pressure from the global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions. Global economic weakness and Middle East tensions weigh on platinum-group metals Commodity analysts at the bank said the rally in platinum-group metals lost momentum since late January, largely due to gold’s price action and persistent economic headwinds linked to the conflict in the Middle East, which continue to weigh on industrial metals demand. Despite the recent weakness, the bank maintained its positive long-term outlook for the sector, noting that it remains constructive on gold heading into the fourth quarter. A renewed gold rally could attract investors back into platinum-group metals and help support prices. Spot platinum fell to around $1,711 per ounce, down more than 2% during the session, while palladium traded near $1,203 per ounce, up roughly 0.5%. Since the sharp selloff on Friday, platinum has lost more than 9% of its value, while palladium has fallen over 6%. Higher price targets despite weak industrial and jewelry demand Despite current pressures, Bank of America still expects platinum to average around $3,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027. Palladium is expected to average around $2,200 per ounce during the final three months of the year. Platinum-group metals delivered strong gains during 2025 as global trade tensions and threats of tariffs on precious metals created significant disruptions in physical market liquidity. However, analysts noted that most of those concerns eased after tariff threats failed to translate into broad implementation. According to the report, the absence of tariffs resulted in more than 200,000 ounces of platinum leaving NYMEX warehouses, roughly half of the inflows recorded during the second half of 2025. Palladium, meanwhile, saw outflows in late January before flows reversed after the US Department of Commerce imposed final anti-dumping duties of 133% and countervailing duties of 109% on Russian palladium. Structural shifts in demand The bank also highlighted structural changes in demand for platinum-group metals. Platinum is expected to record a modest supply deficit this year, while palladium is forecast to remain in a slight surplus. Analysts pointed to China’s accelerating transition toward electric vehicles as a major source of market volatility, given the reduced demand for internal combustion engine vehicles that rely heavily on platinum-group metals in catalytic converters. Electric vehicles are expected to account for roughly 40% of China’s light-vehicle production this year, surpassing conventional combustion-engine vehicles for the first time. Traditional vehicles are projected to represent 36% of production, while hybrids account for 24%. Production of internal combustion vehicles in China has already fallen to approximately 14 million units in 2025, down from 21 million in 2020. By contrast, the transition to electric vehicles remains slower in Europe and the United States, particularly after Washington scaled back some of its earlier electrification initiatives. Weak jewelry demand in China Demand for platinum jewelry has also slowed, especially in China, where elevated inventories accumulated during the manufacturing boom of mid-2025 continue to pressure the market. Although some of those inventories have already been recycled, retailers still hold large stockpiles while consumer demand remains weak, raising the risk of a significant contraction in Chinese jewelry manufacturing volumes this year. Energy costs threaten South African production Despite uncertainty surrounding global demand, Bank of America believes supply-side risks could become increasingly important. The bank noted that ongoing Middle East tensions, higher energy prices, and inflationary pressures could negatively affect production, particularly in South Africa, one of the world's largest producers of platinum-group metals. South Africa relies heavily on imported oil, has limited domestic production capacity, and faces ongoing refining constraints, leaving its mining sector highly exposed to rising fuel costs. Diesel remains widely used across mining operations, transportation networks, and backup power generation, especially given the country's persistent electricity shortages. Diesel prices have surged since the conflict began, while state utility Eskom raised electricity tariffs by 8.76% beginning in April 2026, significantly increasing mining costs. In this context, Sibanye-Stillwater reported a 13% year-over-year increase in unit operating costs during the first quarter, citing persistent inflationary pressures, including higher labor and energy expenses. In trading on Wednesday, spot palladium rose 1.5% to $1,249 per ounce as of 16:14 GMT. Source： https://www.economies.com/commodities/palladium-news/palladium-attempts-to-recover-losses-as-bank-of-america-maintains-a-bullish-outlook-49044

June 8, 2026 Increased mine production, rising recycling, but declining overall demand—at first glance, not a typical environment for new price records. Nevertheless, the experts at Metals Focus forecast an average gold price of $4,920 per ounce for 2026, representing a 43 percent increase from the previous year. This apparent contradiction stems from a profound structural shift in the gold market that has far-reaching implications for the industry. Bullion and coins overtake gold jewelry for the first time The most significant change is taking place on the demand side: In 2026, physical investments in bullion and coins are expected to replace gold jewelry as the largest source of demand for the first time. This trend was already emerging in 2025, when physical investment demand climbed 16 percent to a twelve-year high—driven primarily by growth in China (up 28 percent) and India (up 17 percent). At the same time, global jewelry production plummeted by 19 percent to a five-year low of 1,646 tons. For 2026, Metals Focus anticipates a further decline of 11 percent. The historically high price level is forcing consumers and manufacturers to opt for lighter pieces, lower karat grades, or more affordable alternatives such as gold-filled materials. Consequently, gold is not disappearing from demand but is shifting its primary function from a consumer good to a pure investment product. Unlike jewelry purchases, this investment demand is far less price-sensitive and is primarily driven by motives such as asset protection, diversification, and hedging against currency risks and uncertainties. Lower overall demand—but a higher gold price Although overall demand is expected to decline in 2026 due in part to a slowdown in the jewelry sector, the high quality of buyers supports the projected price surge. Simply looking at total tonnage falls short in the current environment. As early as 2025, gold-backed exchange-traded products (ETFs) recorded their highest annual inflows since 2020, at 803 tons. The driving forces behind this were tariffs, growing U.S. government debt, doubts about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy independence, and geopolitical tensions. These factors will persist in 2026 and will be exacerbated by high stock market valuations and uncertainties regarding the long-term trajectory of the U.S. dollar. The precious metal is thus assuming an increasingly strategic role in investment portfolios. Central banks are buying less—but still at unusually high levels This strategic importance is also reflected in the behavior of central banks. Although net purchases fell by 22 percent to 848 tons in 2025, after having exceeded the 1,000-ton mark for three consecutive years, geographically broad-based demand remains well above pre-2022 levels. Sales were limited to a few countries and served primarily to rebalance portfolios following the recent gold rally. Despite headwinds such as the ongoing energy crisis, Metals Focus expects historically high net purchases in 2026 as well. While the pace of buying is slowing, the trend toward greater diversification of official reserves remains intact. Gold mines are producing more—but supply is slow to respond On the supply side, global mine production reached a new record of 3,817 tons (up 2 percent) in 2025. Growth was driven by new mines, expansions, and higher contributions from small-scale mining. A further increase of 2.4 percent to 3,907 tons is forecast for 2026, with all regions except Oceania and Europe expected to grow. Given the enormous price surge, this supply growth is nevertheless moderate and underscores that even strong price signals in the mining industry do not immediately lead to massive jumps in production. Compounding the issue is the fact that producers are grappling with significant cost increases: Global all-in sustaining costs (AISC) rose by 12 percent to $1,552 per ounce in 2025 due to inflation and taxes. For junior companies, this means that while a higher gold price improves the profitability of projects, factors such as grade, location, and infrastructure are increasingly decisive for success in light of cost trends. Why even record prices are barely triggering a recycling wave The supply of recycled gold is also responding sluggishly. In 2025, the volume rose by only 2.8 percent to 1,404 tons—a 13-year high that is, however, subdued relative to price trends. A 5.1 percent increase is forecast for 2026. This apparent contradiction can be explained by owners’ strong desire for security: precisely because of prevailing uncertainties, scrap gold is being sold less frequently. Paradoxically, the very factor driving prices is simultaneously limiting the additional supply that would normally cool the market. The Iran War Delays the Next Uptrend Short-term volatility remains a factor, however. Following new record highs at the start of 2026, a previously overbought market combined with shifting U.S. interest rate expectations led to a correction. The war in Iran is further fueling inflation, which limits the scope for interest rate cuts in the U.S. and drives up bond yields. In the short term, this is a headwind for gold, although geopolitical conflicts usually support the metal. Metals Focus, however, expects the rally to return once the situation calms down. The underlying premise: Policymakers are likely to tolerate slightly higher inflation rather than jeopardize economic growth through overly restrictive monetary policy. Conclusion: In 2026, it’s no longer just volume that counts in the gold market The market environment for 2026 is more complex than a purely quantitative analysis of supply and demand would suggest. The buyer structure is changing, strategic players are acting less price-sensitive, and structural drivers such as global debt and geopolitical risks remain. At the same time, supply from mines and recycling is growing only slowly. What is decisive, therefore, is not so much the absolute tonnage of total demand, but rather the fact that gold is undergoing a permanent shift from a consumer good to a strategic investment and reserve asset. The projected average price of $4,920 thus does not reflect mere exaggeration, but rather is an expression of a new, more resilient market structure. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-in-2026-new-market-structure-paves-the-way-for-a-rise-to-usd4-920

[Off-Season Characteristics Becoming Increasingly Prominent, Die-Casting Zinc Alloy Operating Rate Declines] In terms of downstream demand, zipper order demand in China has been mediocre recently, while demand for luggage and apparel zippers is weak. End-use demand for jewelry and hardware has also slowed down. Regarding export orders, some orders for hardware products exported to the Middle East have been continuously decreasing, but orders shipped to Southeast Asia have been generally normal...

Against the backdrop of accelerating global energy transition and digital economy development, silver—a strategic metal possessing both industrial and financial attributes—is witnessing profound transformation across its industry chain. On one hand, emerging sectors such as PV, NEV, and 5G communications are driving continuously climbing demand for silver, propelling the industry toward higher value-added and greener upgrades; on the other hand, resource constraints, technological barriers, and market fluctuations are imposing higher demands on industry chain resilience, urgently requiring innovation-driven coordinated development across the entire chain. Dual Drivers of Policy and Market Under China's "dual carbon" goals and the global ESG investment wave, the silver industry faces pressing needs for green production, circular utilization, and low-carbon technologies. The NDRC's "14th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development" explicitly calls for strengthening the circular utilization of precious metal resources, while international silver price fluctuations and geopolitical risks are compelling enterprises to enhance supply chain autonomy and controllability. Against this backdrop, the Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference has emerged, aiming to build a collaborative platform integrating government, industry, academia, research, and end-use applications, to address industry pain points, and to lead the industry toward high-end, intelligent, and internationalized advancement. Innovation Needs and Industry Pain Points Technological Breakthroughs: Silver purification processes, nano-silver material applications, and scrap recycling technologies urgently need breakthroughs to meet the demand for high-purity, low-cost silver in emerging fields such as PV silver paste and flexible electronics. Industry Chain Coordination: Information barriers exist across mining, smelting and processing, and end-use applications segments, requiring digital tools to achieve optimized resource allocation and risk sharing. Green Transformation: Traditional smelting processes are energy-intensive and highly polluting, necessitating the promotion of clean production technologies and circular economy models in response to global carbon neutrality commitments. Market Expansion: Silver's application potential in frontier fields such as hydrogen energy and quantum computing has yet to be fully explored, requiring strengthened cross-industry collaboration and standard-setting. Conference Objectives and Value Themed "Silver Chain Innovation · Intelligent Creation for the Future," this conference brings together global silver industry chain leaders, research institutions, financial institutions, and policymakers for in-depth dialogue around three core topics: technological R&D, supply chain optimization, and market expansion. Through releasing industry white papers, establishing innovation alliances, and signing major projects, the conference aims to drive the silver industry's transformation from "resource dependence" to "technology leadership," providing critical material support for the global energy revolution and digital economy. IKOI S.p.A will attend this grand event to discuss industry development trends with industry peers and jointly propel the silver industry to new heights. Click to register now. Join us to witness and participate in this extraordinary and far-reaching industry event, and together create a brilliant new chapter! IKOI, established in 1977, is a global leader in pyrometallurgical processes for precious metal refineries, mints, and jewelry markets. Currently, it has 3 major product lines: COMPACT integrated fully automatic gold and silver ingot casting systems, FCC FLAMELESS CASTING CHAMBER® fully automatic delivery bar systems, and the acid-free separation technology ALS system that physically separates gold and silver. IKOI's vision is to create safe, efficient, and green precious metal processing methods. IKOI's mission is to bring innovative and sustainable technologies to the precious metal industry. Contact Information Ni Yong 187 0185 9684 Long press to scan the QR code to register now 2026 SMM (7th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference