Australia's BHP has approved a $900 million investment to develop the Ministers North high-grade iron ore deposit in Western Australia, which is scheduled to begin construction in July 2026 and expects its first ore by the 2028-29 financial year. Once fully ramped up, the satellite project is designed to deliver an annual production capacity of approximately 20 million metric tons (mt), directly supporting BHP's medium-term Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) target of exceeding 305 million mt per year. This development follows a record-breaking financial year ending June 30, 2026, where BHP's attributable iron ore output rose by 1% year-on-year to 264.7 million mt, while WAIO output remained strong at 256.9 million mt. For the 2026-27 financial year, the company forecasts total production between 260 million and 272 million mt. From a market perspective, the continuous expansion of designed capacity and the steady injection of new output from projects like Ministers North will significantly reinforce global iron ore supply volumes, potentially easing long-term structural supply constraints and heavily influencing international benchmark pricing trends.

Today, DCE iron ore futures prices were under pressure, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 744.5 yuan/mt, down about 0.47% from the previous session. Port spot prices fell by about 4-6 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders showed less willingness to quote offers, while steel mill procurement was mainly driven by restocking demand. As of now, spot transaction volumes remained low. As of last Friday, global iron ore shipments totaled 30.381 million mt, down 14% WoW. Both Australia's and Brazil's shipments experienced significant declines. During the same period, China's iron ore port arrivals reached 25.015 million mt, down 13% WoW. Supply side, ore supply tightened in the short term, but given high port inventory levels (147 million mt), the overall supply side remained relatively loose. As pig iron production entered a downward trajectory, iron ore demand is expected to weaken further. Therefore, from a fundamental perspective, iron ore prices this week will see slight fluctuations with a downward bias. [SMM Steel]

Shandong mines and beneficiation plants' tax-inclusive, dry basis offer for 64% Fe alkaline fines is 817, up 3. Steel mills raised accordingly. Miners are mostly operating normally; some have inventory accumulation, but most face little inventory pressure. Sales from small plants and traders are average. Recently, steel mills have mainly been purchasing as needed. Domestic iron ore's cost-effectiveness is relatively weak, and overall the desire to push for lower prices is relatively strong. In the short term, local iron ore concentrate transactions are average. Recently, imported iron ore supply has been relatively ample, coupled with the weak trend in iron ore futures. Affected by this, it is estimated that local iron ore concentrate prices may show weak consolidation in the short term. [SMM Steel]

Today, DCE iron ore futures trended firm, pulling back slightly in the afternoon. The I2609 contract closed at 738 yuan/mt, up 0.14% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices rose 2–3 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders were active in quoting, steel mills purchased as needed, buying interest was moderate, and as of now, spot transaction volumes were relatively low. Looking ahead, with the downstream entering the off-season and mine shipment pace slowing down, the iron ore supply side is expected to tighten slightly, but the overall ample supply pattern is unlikely to change. Last week, SMM global iron ore shipments totaled 35.16 million mt, up 1.53% WoW, and cumulatively up 1.77% YoY. Among them, Australia's shipments edged down 6% WoW, but Brazil's shipments surged nearly 20% WoW, while shipments from non-mainstream countries edged up MoM. Among the four major miners, Rio Tinto and FMG saw shipment declines. In addition, last week, SMM China iron ore arrivals totaled 28.78 million mt, down 1.88% WoW, and cumulatively up 6.07% YoY. Based on comprehensive analysis, iron ore prices are likely to fluctuate within a range in the near term, but the bearish pattern will persist in the long term. [SMM Steel]

Vietnam’s Ha Tinh Province has officially terminated the Thach Khe iron ore mining project and revoked the project’s investment certificate, according to media reports. The project had been suspended for several years and was operated by Thach Khe Iron Joint Stock Company. Located in Ha Tinh Province, the mine has reserves of around 544 million tonnes and is considered one of the largest iron ore mines in Southeast Asia. Local authorities have assigned relevant departments to handle follow-up matters related to land, finance, assets and other obligations. The termination suggests Vietnam is unlikely to improve domestic iron ore supply through this major project in the near term, limiting local raw material self-sufficiency.

This week, the domestic iron ore concentrates market weakened slightly with regional divergence. Prices in Tangshan, Qian’an, and Qianxi of Hebei were basically stable; western Liaoning’s Chaoyang, Beipiao, and Jianping areas pulled back slightly by 5-10 yuan/mt; east China pulled back 10-15 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to next week, China’s iron ore supply tightness is expected to be hard to ease. Demand side, according to SMM tracking data, hot metal production of steel mill blast furnaces may pull back slightly, weakening support for iron ore concentrates. Steel mills’ desire to bargain down prices will remain dominant. The tug-of-war between sellers and buyers persists. Next week, the domestic iron ore market is expected to be in the doldrums overall. [SMM Steel]