According to MiningWeekly, research and consulting firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) has maintained its iron ore price forecast for this year at $100/mt, as it expects falling demand to drive prices down. Although the easing of trade conflicts has provided some support for iron ore, BMI believes there is still a possibility of a decline in steel production, so the risks for iron ore have not diminished. On May 6, the price of 62% Fe iron ore at Qingdao Port was $94.70/mt, with an average price of $96.50/mt since the beginning of the year. Although iron ore prices remained relatively resilient at the start of 2025 and reached a high for the year of $102.90/mt on February 21, they remained below $100/mt in March and April. Despite a brief rebound in iron ore prices stimulated by supply disruptions caused by severe weather, the optimism did not last. The decline in growth rates of major global economies and the intensification of trade conflicts have shifted market sentiment. Falling steel production and a sluggish real estate market are the main factors contributing to the decline in iron ore prices, BMI said. Iron ore prices are susceptible to stimulus policies, and negotiations on trade agreements among major economies can help alleviate downward pressure on iron ore prices. According to data from the World Steel Association, global crude steel production fell by 0.4% YoY in Q1. India and Brazil saw increases in crude steel production of 6.8% and 2.8%, respectively, while China, a major consumer of iron ore, saw an increase of 0.6% in crude steel production. Supply From the supply side, BMI expects major iron ore producing regions to remain stable, which will put pressure on iron ore prices to rise. Production and exports from major iron ore miners are expected to grow or remain largely stable. Despite the impact of severe weather at the beginning of the year, miners still aim to maintain production levels. In particular, Vale's iron ore production in Q1 fell by 4.5% YoY, but the miner still maintained its production target for 2025 at 325-335 million mt, compared to 328 million mt in 2024. Although Rio Tinto's shipments in Q1 fell by 9% YoY, the company still maintained its full-year production forecast of 323-338 million mt. In contrast, BHP expects its iron ore production in the first nine months of FY2025 to increase by 1% to 193 million mt, with full-year production expected to be in the range of 255-265 million mt, compared to a record 260 million mt in FY2024. In the first nine months of FY2025, Fortescue's iron ore production increased slightly to 143 million mt, and the company expects full-year production to be in the range of 190-200 million mt, compared to 191 million mt in FY2024. Outlook In the long term, iron ore prices are expected to show a downward trend, projected to fall from $100/mt in 2025 to $78/mt in 2034. BMI stated that the contraction in steel production and the growth in iron ore production will lead to a sluggish market.

On Monday, April 7, Bank of America warned that due to ongoing trade tensions, volatility in the metal markets has intensified, leading to a downward revision of its 2025 price forecasts for copper and aluminum. The bank also highlighted uncertainties surrounding US tariffs and global policy responses. Strategists at Bank of America wrote in a report that with changing rules, volatility dominates. They believe that volatility will intensify as tariff and trade policy actions, along with reactions to these actions, take effect. The bank lowered its 2025 copper price forecast by 6% to $8,867 per mt ($4.02/lb) and also revised down its aluminum price forecast, citing demand risks from slowing global economic growth and potential US dollar strength. The coal price forecast was also reduced, while the iron ore price forecast was slightly raised due to improved fundamentals. Meanwhile, Bank of America recently raised its gold price forecast, supported by macroeconomic uncertainties and investor risk aversion. Uncertainties are unfavorable for global competitive growth, including in the US, and may negatively impact metal prices, the bank stated. "We believe tariffs are detrimental to consumers and industries," the bank added. Although deregulation and tax cuts may support US economic growth, Bank of America noted that these measures are unlikely to fully offset the loss of global demand. To learn more about the dynamics of the copper industry chain, you are invited to attend the CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo, hosted by SMM, which will be held grandly in Nanchang, Jiangxi from April 22-25, 2025. Over 3,000 industry elites, representatives from upstream and downstream enterprises in the copper industry chain, government officials, industry associations, third-party equipment, logistics and warehousing, as well as experts from universities and research institutions will gather together. The conference covers mines, smelting, copper processing, trade, recycling, and end-use applications, encompassing the entire copper industry chain. At the conference, more than 100 exhibitors will showcase the latest copper processing and smelting equipment, high-quality raw material suppliers, and new-type copper-based materials, highlighting the innovation and vitality of the copper industry. The conference features a variety of exciting activities: the main forum focuses on global copper market trends, raw material supply, policy impact analysis, and market direction interpretation. Sub-forums delve into industry hot topics such as electrical power transmission and distribution, secondary copper, copper-based new materials, hardware and plumbing, and ESS. During the conference, a two-day field trip will visit 12 representative enterprises in the copper industry with a cumulative capacity of 1 million mt, sharing cutting-edge technologies and valuable experiences to help upgrade the copper industry chain and promote high-quality industry development. The CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo will help you grasp industry trends, expand your network, and seek business opportunities! SMM cordially invites you to gather in Nanchang, Jiangxi from April 22-25, to unite in the new era and jointly plan for new development!

Benchmark Minerals Intelligence (BMI), a subsidiary of Fitch Solutions, raised its average iron ore price forecast for 2024 to $120/mt from $100/mt, mainly due to a rebound in market confidence.

According to a view recently released by Goldman Sachs Group, the iron ore market is expected to experience shortages for the rest of this year, mainly due to low inventories and declining production.

According to foreign news on July 5, Citi Research said that it remains cautious about the copper price trend until the first quarter of 2024. It expects the average copper price in the next three quarters will be $8,000/mt, and traded prices are estimated at $7,500-8,500/mt.

SHANGHAI, Jun 19 (SMM) – The most-traded SHFE 2307 aluminium contract opened at 18,650 yuan/mt at last Friday’s session, and closed at 18,665 yuan/mt, with its low of 18,540 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt or 0.19%.