In the Tangshan area of Hebei, prices of iron ore concentrates showed no significant short-term fluctuations; the local dry-basis tax-inclusive EXW price of grade-66 iron ore concentrates was 950-955 yuan/mt; local resources of iron ore concentrates remained relatively tight, providing some support for local iron ore prices; demand side, steel mills were currently mainly purchasing as needed, but iron ore futures recently showed a relatively strong trend

Iron ore futures were slightly stronger today. DCE's most-traded futures contract I2701 closed at 714 yuan/mt, up 0.85% from the previous trading session. The spot price at Qingdao Port rose 2-3 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in quoting, steel mills' purchases were mostly driven by essential restocking needs, and overall spot trading volume was average. This week, iron ore fundamentals remained stable, and short-term demand may contract slightly. According to SMM statistics, this week, the impact from blast furnace maintenance on hot metal was 1.3317 million mt, up 20,600 mt WoW. Next week, the impact from blast furnace maintenance on hot metal is expected to be 1.3682 million mt, up 36,500 mt WoW. On the news front, both parties involved in the Port Hedland strike have not yet reached an agreement on pay. As of now, the strike has lasted for a month; although its impact on overall shipments has been limited, the continued development of the incident has still provided some bullish support for market sentiment. Therefore, overall, in the short term, iron ore price movements may be somewhat bullish under the guidance of sentiment, but the medium and long-term bearish pattern remains unchanged. [SMM Steel]

[8.18 Morning Meeting Minutes] The People’s Bank of China released financial data for July 2026. Cumulative growth in aggregate financing to the real economy in the first seven months of 2026 totaled 22.25 trillion yuan, down 174 billion yuan from the same period last year. As of end-July, broad money (M2) outstanding stood at 355.51 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) surged in early trading and then fluctuated at highs, closing the morning session at 128,850 yuan/mt, up 1.0%. Driven by factors including a mild cooling in the US July PPI and a further pullback in rate-hike expectations, base metals broadly rose, and nickel prices rebounded from last week’s lows. Expectations are for looser RKAB quotas for Indonesian nickel ore, but sulfur prices still stayed high above $1,000/mt, leaving cost support intact. In the short term, the trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.

Today, iron ore futures were subdued. The most-traded DCE contract I2701 closed at 706.5 yuan/mt, down 0.70% from the previous trading session. Spot prices at Qingdao Port fell by 2-4 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Trader activity was moderate, steel mills purchased as needed, and overall spot transactions were limited. Last week, SMM global iron ore shipment volume totaled 33.54 million mt, edging up 4% WoW, with a cumulative YoY increase of 1%. According to market data, iron ore inventories at major Australian loading ports also remained at relatively high levels. Therefore, in the short term, iron ore shipments still have room to grow, capping the upside room for future price increases. In addition, affected by typhoon weather, SMM China iron ore port arrivals totaled 18.61 million mt last week, down sharply by 37% WoW, with a cumulative YoY increase of 4%. Although port arrivals declined sharply, current iron ore inventories remained at high levels and did not actually affect the market. In the short term, the iron ore supply side is expected to remain loose. Therefore, in terms of fundamentals, iron ore prices will continue to consolidate on a subdued note until new information enters the market. [SMM Steel]

Iron ore futures traded firmer today. The most-traded DCE I2701 contract closed at 710.5 yuan/mt, up 0.42% from the previous trading session. Spot prices at Qingdao Port rose 5-9 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders were active in making offers, steel mills made limited inquiries, and overall spot volume has so far been average. According to the latest SMM statistics, total iron ore inventory at China's 35 major ports was 146.78 million mt, up 390,000 mt MoM. Overall inventory saw a slight buildup, and daily average port pick-up volume edged down 7,000 mt to 3.088 million mt. The data show that although China's iron ore port arrivals and port pick-up volumes both declined during this period, arrival growth is expected to outpace the recovery pace in port pick-up. Meanwhile, pig iron production is fluctuating amid blast furnace maintenance. Given strong supply and weak demand, iron ore inventory may tend to accumulate. Therefore, with a news vacuum and most funds in a wait-and-see mode, iron ore prices may tend to weaken. [SMM Steel]

Iron ore prices drifted higher this week, the most-traded contract completed its rollover, and the I2609 contract hit an intraweek high of 727 yuan/mt. The price moves were driven mainly by news-related disruptions rather than a substantive improvement in fundamentals. First, BHP’s Port Hedland strike negotiations remained at a stalemate; the 24-hour strike originally scheduled to start on August 9 was postponed to August 18 after consultations, which lifted sentiment somewhat but had a limited impact on actual shipments. Second, market rumors that long-term contract negotiations had started triggered temporary concerns about tight supply of medium- and low-grade ore. At the macro level, the central bank conducted 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations at the beginning of the month, signaling looser liquidity and offering warm sentiment support to the market. Fundamentals continued to be weak: extreme weather triggered by Typhoon Dolphin disrupted end-user construction and further weakened steel demand; steel mills became more cautious in procurement; spot market trading was sluggish; and the rise in iron ore prices lacked strong demand-side support. Chart: MMI 61% Port Spot Index Source: SMM This week, China’s iron ore concentrate prices showed mixed performance with pronounced regional divergence. Prices in Tangshan, Qian'an, and Qianxi in Hebei were basically stable; Chaoyang, Beipiao, and Jianping in western Liaoning also remained steady; east China saw prices edge down by 10-15 yuan/mt. In the Tangshan area, the tax-inclusive EXW price of 66% grade iron ore concentrate on a dry basis was quoted at 950-955 yuan/mt, with prices weakening slightly. On the supply side, resources at mine and beneficiation plants remained tight, but had eased somewhat compared with earlier, and overall supply trended looser; mines in other regions mostly maintained normal production according to plan. On the demand side, steel mills mainly purchased as needed, and some mills had already formulated new maintenance plans, weakening rigid demand support for iron ore concentrate; meanwhile, steel mills showed a strong desire to bargain down prices, and the price spread between domestic and imported ore was narrowing. Overall, China’s iron ore prices remained relatively stable this week. Chart: The price spread between domestic and imported ore narrowed slightly this week, and is expected to widen slightly next week Outlook for Next Week Imported Ore: Looking ahead to next week, iron ore prices may continue to move sideways in a narrow range, with both upward and downward drivers insufficient. Fundamentals-wise , end-use demand is unlikely to improve in the near term: new typhoons will continue to form and may affect China, downstream construction pace will continue to be disrupted, and with hot metal output staying low, steel mills’ rigid consumption demand for iron ore will be hard to expand. On the supply side, there is an expectation of supply growth; overseas mines still have room to boost shipments; port inventories may accumulate further, capping the upside for ore prices. News side , the progress of strike negotiations at BHP's Port Hedland and rumors around long-term contract talks may still cause periodic disruptions to market sentiment, but given their limited impact on actual supply and demand, they are unlikely to drive trend-like price fluctuations. Overall, the market currently lacks clear directional contradictions, and iron ore prices may move sideways in a narrow range next week. Domestic ore: Looking ahead to next week, domestic iron ore concentrate resources are expected to remain tight. Demand side, there are expectations for production resumptions at some steel mills. Combined with the recent rise in imported ore spot prices, the price spread between domestic and imported ore has continued to narrow. Meanwhile, iron ore futures are showing relative strength, which may lend some support to domestic ore prices. However, domestic ore price gains are expected to lag those of imported ore, and the price spread between domestic and imported ore is likely to continue narrowing.