The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee: Deepen comprehensive reform of investment and financing in the capital market, and enhance the resilience and confidence of the capital market.

Today, iron ore futures on the DCE trended weaker, with the most-traded I2609 contract closing at 760 yuan/mt, down 0.20% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices were little changed from the prior day. Most traders followed market trends, with moderate activity; steel mills remained cautious, with fewer inquiries; as of now, spot trading volumes were relatively low. Looking ahead, iron ore demand is expected to edge up in the short term. According to an SMM survey, the impact of blast furnace maintenance on hot metal production this week was 1.1058 million mt, down 240,100 mt WoW, and next week is expected to be down 6,800 mt WoW from this week. The short-term increase in pig iron production may strengthen support for iron ore prices and prompt price recovery. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of the steel off-season, iron ore inventories have also begun to rise, and the overall upside room for iron ore remains under strong suppression. Therefore, ore prices may stage a brief recovery before continuing to hover at lows in the short term.

According to SMM research, as of the 12th of March, total iron ore inventories across the 10 major ports surveyed stood at 118.99 million tonnes, an increase of 1.08 million tonnes compared to the previous week. Within this total, inventories of coarse fines and lump ore saw a marginal decrease, while stocks of concentrate and pellets continued to accumulate.

As survey conducted by SMM on the 6th of March, total iron ore inventories across 10 major ports stood at 117.91 million tonnes, representing a week-on-week decrease of 960,000 tonnes. This overall reduction was led by a slight destocking of coarse fines and lump ore, while inventories of concentrate and pellets experienced a minor accumulation.

According to an SMM survey dated 26th February, total iron ore inventories across the 10 major ports monitored by SMM reached 118.87 million tonnes, marking an increase of 2.13 million tonnes from the pre-holiday level. A divergence in stock levels was observed among the four main product categories: inventories of coarse fines and lump ore recorded a slight accumulation, whereas stocks of concentrate and pellets experienced a minor destocking.

Iron ore futures generally weakened today, with the most-traded contract I2605 finally settling at 762 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.2% from the previous trading day. Spot prices were basically flat compared to the previous trading day. Traders showed mediocre enthusiasm in offering, while steel mills had limited inquiries. Overall market trading activity was dull and quiet. Key data on iron ore inventories at 10 major ports showed total inventory pulled back to 11.674 billion mt, a decrease of 1.05 million mt WoW. Behind this change was a steady rebound in daily average hot metal production, which drove the release of rigid demand and led to signs of destocking at major ports, indicating substantial improvement on the demand side for iron ore and forming relatively solid support for futures prices. However, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, market participants are taking holidays one after another, leading to a noticeable decline in market activity. Moreover, the dual-high pattern of port inventory and in-factory inventory at steel mills continues to exert significant pressure on the upside room for iron ore. The improvement in demand is expected to take some time before being reflected in prices. Therefore, iron ore prices are projected to continue moving sideways in the short term. [SMM Steel]