Dalian iron ore futures were generally stronger today. The most-traded contract, I2605, eventually closed at 816.5 yuan/mt, up 1.81% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, the spot price rose by about 5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills made relatively few inquiries. Overall spot market transactions were limited. The latest SMM survey showed that the impact of blast furnace maintenance on hot metal production was 1.751 million mt, down 250,000 mt WoW. This impact is expected to further decline by 229,800 mt next week to 1.522 million mt. As blast furnace maintenance intensity gradually eases, iron ore demand is expected to show signs of rebounding in the short term. Looking ahead, although current port iron ore inventory has reached 155 million mt, the overhang is mainly concentrated in certain varieties. Overall, market demand for some high-demand varieties has seen a structural shift. In particular, varieties represented by IOCJ fines and PB lumps continued to destock rapidly, while MAC fines and Indian fines saw an inventory buildup. The structural contraction on the supply side is expected to lend favorable support to iron ore fundamentals in the short term. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs or remain relatively strong this week.

This week, ferrous metals rebounded from the bottom. At the start of the week, coking coal and coke led the futures higher, mainly driven by rising crude oil prices in the overseas market, which pushed the energy and chemicals sector stronger accordingly; mid-week, both the U.S. and Iran signaled a more relaxed stance toward war, easing geopolitical tensions, while coal prices fell in tandem, weakening the cost-side logic, and ferrous metals fluctuated at highs; in the latter half of the week, worsening short-term liquidity issues in BHP's iron ore port inventory triggered stronger iron ore prices in the overseas market, while the Middle East situation remained volatile, reinforcing cost support and pushing ferrous metals higher again. In the spot market, supported by futures, end-user and arbitrage purchase sentiment both improved WoW this week......

World Steel Association data shows India produced 15.1 million tonnes of crude steel in January 2026, a 10.5% increase year-on-year. This robust growth contrasts with a 6.5% decline in total global production, highlighting India's role as the primary driver of iron ore demand outside of China.

Dalian iron ore fluctuated upward today, with the most-traded contract I2605 finally closing at 787.5 yuan/mt, up 0.90% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, spot prices rose 2-3 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotations, while steel mills made inquiries. Overall spot market transactions were sluggish. An SMM tracking survey showed that the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills was 85.99% this week, while daily average hot metal production reached 2.3514 million mt, down 36,400 mt WoW. Multiple steel mills in Hebei underwent concentrated maintenance due to safety and environmental protection inspections, and the maintenance cycles were relatively short. Therefore, the decline in iron ore demand was more pronounced this week. Looking ahead, given that maintenance cycles for most blast furnaces were relatively short, the intensity of maintenance is expected to gradually ease in the later stage, and daily average hot metal production is expected to rebound quickly, with iron ore demand likely to improve next week. Overall, iron ore is likely to remain in the doldrums in the near term.

DCE iron ore futures fell before rising, stabilizing in the afternoon session. The most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 784 yuan/mt, up 0.26% from the previous session. Meanwhile, spot prices fell 2–5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders showed average enthusiasm in quoting prices, and steel mills’ purchases were mainly for rigid demand. Overall, the spot market saw scant transactions. According to SMM survey tracking, blast furnace maintenance intensity continued to increase this week, with the impacted volume up 102,100 mt WoW to 1.9892 million mt. Iron ore demand was currently at a relatively low level. As blast furnaces that underwent earlier maintenance resumed production in a concentrated manner, hot metal production was expected to rebound next week, and iron ore demand was likely to improve. On the macro front, the war in the Middle East remained in a stalemate. Surging crude oil prices pushed up the ocean freight rate and the cost of imported iron ore, providing cost support for ore prices. However, due to limited actual transactions, upward momentum showed signs of weakening. Therefore, in the short term, ore prices might mainly see sideways movement within a range.

DCE iron ore rose in an N-shaped pattern, and the most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 784.5 yuan/mt, up 2.28% from the previous futures session. Meanwhile, the spot price rose by 5-15 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in quoting, and steel mills’ procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand. Overall spot market transactions were average. This week, both iron ore supply and demand weakened. SMM’s total global iron ore shipments came in at 27.84 million mt, down 7.01 million mt MoM, a decline of 20.1%. Shipments from Australia and Brazil fell notably last week due to cyclones, while shipments from South Africa, India, and other countries also declined. China’s total iron ore arrivals were 23.07 million mt, down 1.21 million mt MoM, a decrease of about 5%. In addition, blast furnace production resumptions were progressing relatively slowly, leading to weak iron ore demand. However, given structural tightness in some iron ore resources and rising transportation costs, downside support for ore prices remained relatively solid. Therefore, iron ore prices were expected to fluctuate upward this week, mainly in both the overseas market and domestic market.