In H1 2026, SHFE aluminum prices exhibited a "high-then-low" pattern. In Q1, macro front, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts intertwined with Middle East geopolitical conflicts, driving aluminum prices to surge to record highs; entering Q2, with the confirmation of the US strong-dollar policy stance, marginal easing of supply disruptions in the Middle East, and China's downstream consumption entering the off-season, the SHFE aluminum price center shifted lower continuously. Looking ahead to H2, macro front, the strong US dollar and liquidity concerns outside China will continue to weigh on nonferrous metal valuations; supply side, high aluminum prices are stimulating capacity release, with China's operating capacity expected to continue to increase MoM and new capacity in the Middle East and Indonesia gradually ramping up; demand side, domestic demand recovery is at a mild pace, and orders on hand for aluminum semis exports can still provide a floor, but expectations for new orders are weakening. Overall, the SHFE aluminum price center in H2 is expected to continue to shift lower, with the full year showing a "high-then-low" pattern.

The steel scrap procurement price adjustment of Henan Anyang Steel was updated today. Please feel free to contact us if you have any needs!

[SMM Analysis: Highly Likely False News – Rumour of Major Manufacturer Starting Production of 15 Gwh Sulphide All-Solid-State Battery] False news: On July 7, 2026, according to multiple media sources, CATL officially announced the initial phase of production of the world's first mass-production line for all-solid-state batteries at its facility in Yibin, Sichuan, with a planned capacity of 15 Gwh. Sulphide all-solid-state technology route + energy density 500 Wh/kg + 10-minute fast charging + 800 km.

[SMM Analysis: Samsung SDI’s “Contrarian Big Bet” — 25 Trillion Won Staked on Next-Generation Batteries Could Rewrite Global Energy Landscape] Samsung SDI disclosed a regulatory filing on July 3, announcing an investment of approximately 16 trillion won (about 88 billion yuan) into its Ulsan plant by 2040, to build large-scale production sites for all-solid-state batteries, LFP batteries for ESS, and sodium-ion batteries. A day earlier (July 2), the company had announced an investment of 9 trillion won into its Cheonan plant, for setting up a mother production line for next-generation battery technology verification and R&D facilities. Combined, the two investments total 25 trillion won, spanning a period of 14 years and lasting until 2040.

SMM July 7 News: The most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 15,910 yuan/mt during the day, drifted lower early in the session, dipped to an intraday low of 15,830 yuan/mt, consolidated and recovered after support at low levels emerged, continued to rebound gradually in the afternoon, surged again near the end to approach the opening level, traded widely within the 15,830-15,905 yuan/mt range throughout the day, and finally closed at 15,905 yuan/mt, edging down 5 yuan/mt or 0.03% for the day. Lead prices consolidated on a subdued note recently, downstream producers only purchased on demand at low prices, warehouse withdrawals increased in selected warehouses, and social inventory pulled back slightly in the short term. However, the weak demand in the battery off-season did not improve, and downstream procurement demand was difficult to expand; coupled with the approaching delivery of the 2607 contract, suppliers transferred large volumes of goods into delivery warehouses, and inventories in many social warehouses had increased for two consecutive weeks. On the supply side, primary and secondary lead smelters underwent maintenance and production cuts this week, tightening supply in the short term; but in-factory inventory at smelters accumulated noticeably, and with only 7 trading days left until delivery, subsequent inventory releases may continue to pressure inventory and futures prices, leaving the market still facing downward risk. Data Source Statement: All data other than public information is based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, processed by SMM. It is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

SMM Morning Brief: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,385/mt, dipped to $13,320/mt early in the session, then its price center drifted higher, touching a high of $13,422/mt near the close, and finally settled at $13,411/mt, up 0.4%. Trading volume reached 11,700 lots and open interest stood at 249,000 lots, down 579 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting short-covering. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,630 yuan/mt, with the copper price center dipping to 102,610 yuan/mt at the open, then drifting higher all the way, touching a high of 103,270 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settling at 103,090 yuan/mt, up 0.01%. Trading volume reached 19,000 lots and open interest stood at 150,000 lots, down 1,235 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting short-covering.