After the Chinese New Year holiday, the domestic aluminum market entered the traditional resumption cycle, but the problem of aluminum ingot inventory buildup became prominent. Warehouses in major consumption areas faced comprehensive capacity constraints, and congestion at railway stations was widespread. Overall inventory pressure is expected to persist until the end of March...

SMM February 28 News: According to SMM estimates, the monthly cast ingot volume of aluminum in February increased by around 170,000 mt MoM, largely in line with expectations at the beginning of the month. Entering March, aluminum smelters have varying plans for the local conversion of liquid aluminum. Due to high prices and high finished product inventories of processed materials, some enterprises indicated that the rebound in the proportion of liquid aluminum would be relatively limited; meanwhile, the cast ingot volume of some companies is expected to return to normal levels. Overall, the national proportion of liquid aluminum in March is expected to rebound by 9.1 percentage points compared with February and also increase from January; the total cast ingot volume in March is projected to remain above 1 million mt, which will continue to push up aluminum ingot inventory. The specific inventory situation is as follows: Social inventory: As of the first working day after the holiday, the national aluminum social inventory was recorded at 1.108 million mt, largely consistent with pre-holiday inventory forecasts; over the two working days after the holiday, aluminum ingot social inventory accumulated by nearly 50,000 mt, with the buildup level matching expectations. Finished product inventories at aluminum plants: By the end of February, according to SMM estimates, finished aluminum ingot inventories at aluminum plants had accumulated by 72,500 mt compared with the end of January, and are expected to be gradually sold externally or shipped to social warehouses. In summary, with cast ingot volumes remaining high in March, demand recovery still requiring time, and finished aluminum ingot inventories from aluminum plants being gradually dispatched—along with piled-up inventory at stations continuously entering warehouses—the post-holiday inventory peak is still projected to reach around 1.35–1.4 million mt.

According to SMM, as of February 27, 2026, the days of inventories for domestic aluminum rod plants were recorded at 12.7 days, an increase of 8.6 days from before the holiday.In the first week after the holiday, the weekly operating rate of the domestic aluminum wire and cable industry rebounded to 57%, up 4 percentage points MoM, significantly higher than the pre-holiday low of 53%.

Before and after the Chinese New Year, the domestic spot aluminum market exhibited significant regional differentiation, with the spot price spread between South China (Foshan) and East China (Wuxi) drawing particular attention. Before the holiday, the Guangdong-Shanghai price spread reached a high of 150 yuan/mt on February 10, while by February 27 after the holiday, this spread had narrowed significantly to 10 yuan/mt.....

According to SMM survey, as of February 26, social inventory of aluminum billets in mainstream domestic consumption areas reached 398,000 mt, approaching the 400,000 mt mark.

On the production side, China's 1# silver output in February 2025 increased 0.81% MoM and 8.17% YoY.