SMM May 8 update: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,770 yuan/mt intraday. At the beginning of the session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the range of 16,750-16,785 yuan/mt. Subsequently, dragged down by lead ingot inventory buildup, prices fluctuated downward, hitting an intraday low of 16,610 yuan/mt. Prices rebounded slightly toward the close, ultimately settling at 16,710 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt or 0.65%, recording a small bearish candlestick. Sentiment side, geopolitical tensions outside China resurfaced, tightening the macro atmosphere and driving non-ferrous metals overall under pressure to pull back. Fundamentals side, production cuts and shutdowns at secondary lead smelters expanded in scope, but the lead-acid battery industry entered the traditional consumption off-season, with supply and demand weakening simultaneously. Lead ingot inventory continued to accumulate after the holiday, making it difficult to provide effective support for lead prices. In the short term, lead prices are expected to continue their pullback, giving back part of the earlier gains. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

After the holiday, ferrous metals opened higher, but subsequent trends diverged—steel products and iron ore fluctuated at highs, while coke surged before pulling back. The strong rally during the week was mainly driven by disturbances outside China. During the holiday, the US-Iran standoff escalated with widening negotiation gaps, pushing raw materials to lead the gains in ferrous metals. Combined with capital inflows after the holiday, this provided a clear upward drive for prices. In the latter half of the week, market rumors suggested that Iran and the US had reached a consensus on easing the US naval blockade in exchange for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and bears increased their positions in coke. Data on the five major steel products were released, showing weakness in both supply and demand, with inventory not accumulating after the holiday. On the spot market side, traders had a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and purchases were made in both futures and spot cargo at low price levels...

China's stainless steel futures gave back ground sharply in the first trading week after the May Day holiday, as a sudden easing of Middle East tensions deflated the risk premium that had carried prices to recent highs. With the cost-side narrative unwinding and physical demand showing little follow-through, the market is searching for a new floor

SMM, May 8: LME lead opened at $1,948/mt this week. Prices dipped slightly at the beginning of the session, touching a low of $1,946.5/mt before rebounding in a volatile manner, briefly reaching a high of $1,990/mt. Prices then pulled back slightly on profit-taking and consolidated briefly. Toward the end of the session, prices came under pressure again and weakened, ultimately closing at $1,966/mt, up $18/mt from the weekly open, a gain of 0.92%. Due to the Labor Day holiday closure, the most-traded SHFE lead pb2606 contract resumed trading on May 6, opening at 16,690 yuan/mt. After the open, driven by bulls, prices surged rapidly, touching a high of 17,005 yuan/mt. However, under the dual pressure of lead ingot inventory buildup and weak downstream consumption, the price center pulled back in a volatile fashion, dipping to a low of 16,610 yuan/mt near the close. Losses narrowed slightly toward the end of the session, with prices ultimately closing at 16,710 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt from the pre-holiday level, a gain of 0.48%.

SMM May 8 update: As of May 7, secondary lead finished product inventories stood at 18,900 mt, a slight inventory buildup of 320 mt compared to April 30. During the holiday, downstream operations were suspended and the market was closed, with spot cargo trading essentially at a standstill. The expanded scope of production cuts and shutdowns at secondary lead smelters constrained inventory increases to some extent, resulting in a relatively limited buildup. Looking ahead to next week, secondary lead operating rates are expected to remain low, while downstream players are expected to gradually return to the market and restock for rigid demand, and finished product inventories are expected to see slight destocking.

[SMM Express] Today, the inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in China's major consumption areas increased by 36 mt from the previous trading day to 30,600 mt, maintaining a slight inventory buildup trend.