On July 2, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price declined.

As of this Thursday, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate had declined. Demand side, on the one hand, nickel prices plummeted without obvious relief, undermining downstream stockpiling confidence. On the other hand, at the mid-year reporting period in June, downstream enterprises generally exhibited a strong willingness to control inventory, leading to inventory accumulation at some precursor enterprises. Stockpiling sentiment in July was weak, and acceptance of nickel salt prices was low. Supply side, while MHP payables and auxiliary material prices remained high, some producers maintained high quotes, but some producers were also releasing finished product inventories. Looking ahead, the expectation of tight nickel sulphate raw material supply has yet to improve, and attention should be paid to the cost support for nickel salt prices from nickel prices and intermediate products. In terms of inventory, the upstream nickel salt smelter inventory index slid from 8.2 days to 9.7 days this week, the downstream precursor plant inventory index rose from 9.9 days to 12.3 days, and the integrated enterprise inventory index rose from 7 days to 8.1 days. Regarding buying and selling strength, the upstream nickel salt smelter's Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor remained at 1.8, the downstream precursor plant's procurement sentiment factor remained at 2.5, and the integrated enterprise sentiment factor remained at 2.4. (Historical data can be accessed by logging into the database.)

[SMM Secondary Aluminum Alloy Flash] This week, China's social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots fell 6,100 mt WoW to 44,300 mt, marking the fifth consecutive week of destocking, with the destocking speed accelerating WoW. Tight tax invoices and restricted procurement of compliant aluminum scrap continued to constrain enterprise production, keeping new warehouse inflows at a low level. Meanwhile, order deliveries and the recent widening of spot-futures price spreads boosted manufacturers' repurchase demand, driving inventories down further. It is expected that in the short term, affected by tight aluminum scrap supply, secondary aluminum enterprises will struggle to significantly ramp up operating rates, and social inventory will remain low.

SMM July 2: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,870/mt. In early trading, prices repeatedly drifted lower, dipping to an intraday low of $1,853/mt. Subsequently, bearish selling pressure eased somewhat, and prices consolidated and rebounded. During the latter half of the evening session, the uptrend accelerated, and prices gradually rebounded, reaching a high of $1,881.5/mt. Near the close, prices pulled back under slight pressure and finally settled at $1,866.5/mt, forming a candlestick with a long lower shadow, down $5.5/mt, or 0.29%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 15,895 yuan/mt. After a brief surge to 15,930 yuan/mt, bulls ran out of steam, and bears entered to press prices into a sustained retreat, touching a low of 15,795 yuan/mt. Finding slight support from small buy orders at the low, it rebounded modestly, currently trading at 15,810 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt, or 0.41%. Trading volume expanded, and open interest increased slightly by 1,263 lots. The contract retreated after a rapid rise and exhibited overall weakness. LME lead inventories are high, Goldman Sachs keeps adding to bearish positions, and inflows of low-grade lead imports are dragging on SHFE lead. On the supply side, lead concentrates are in short supply, and TCs continue to fall in July; primary lead smelters that underwent maintenance will resume production in July and are expected to increase output by 20,000 mt. Secondary lead raw material supply is tight, scrap battery prices have fallen, and production resumption plans are highly dependent on lead prices. In July, the battery sector enters the off-season, with downstream users only making small, low-price trial purchases and no concentrated restocking. Lead prices are in the doldrums in the near term; they will only stop falling once downstream users make concentrated purchases and secondary lead production cuts materialize.

Futures: The overnight LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,870/mt, then drifted lower in the initial session, dipping to $1,853/mt during the day before bearish pressure eased and futures rebounded. In the latter part of the evening session, the rally accelerated, with prices gradually climbing to a high of $1,881.5/mt. Towards the close, futures pulled back under modest pressure to settle at $1,866.5/mt, forming a long lower shadow candlestick and losing $5.5/mt, a decline of 0.29%. The overnight SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 15,895 yuan/mt. After a brief early spike to 15,930 yuan/mt, bulls lost momentum as bears entered to push prices lower, with the contract dropping to a low of 15,795 yuan/mt. Gaining some support from light buying at the lows, prices rebounded slightly and are now trading near 15,810 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.41%. Trading volume expanded and open interest edged up by 1,263 lots, with the contract retreating after a rapid rise and showing overall weakness. On the macro front: Fed Chairman Warsh: Inflation expectations and inflation risks have both diminished in recent weeks. The US ADP employment change for June increased by less than expected. Warsh reportedly appointed a Bessent aide as a Fed advisor. Meta is reportedly considering selling surplus AI computing power. Wang Yi held a telephone call with US Secretary of State Rubio. An agent confirmed that MLCC giant Yageo raised prices. Spot Fundamentals: SHFE lead has recently suffered successive breakdowns, and losses widened again today, with suppliers holding prices firm on their cargoes—lead ingot cargoes in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions were quoted at premiums. Meanwhile, the discount on EXW primary lead smelter cargoes narrowed. In major producing regions, quotations were near parity with the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, smelter losses deepened as lead prices fell, and some enterprises signaled potential production cuts or suspensions. Market quotes were scarce, with a few secondary refined lead offers at premiums of 0–75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. As the semi-annual liquidity squeeze eased in July, large downstream enterprises resumed normal procurement and showed marginally higher inquiry interest. However, given the sharp decline in lead prices, most downstream enterprises remained cautious, leaving market trading volumes subdued. Inventories: As of July 1, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,900 mt to 301,775 mt. As of June 29, SMM data showed total social inventory of lead ingots across five major domestic regions climbed to 71,200 mt, reaching a stage high since June, with visible inventory buildup pressure remaining pronounced. Lead Price Outlook Today: LME lead inventory remains elevated, while Goldman Sachs continues to add short positions, and inflows of low-grade lead imports are weighing on SHFE lead. Supply side, lead concentrate availability is tight, with July TCs extending their decline; primary lead smelters resuming production after maintenance are expected to add 20,000 mt of output in July. Secondary lead raw material supply is tight, scrap battery prices fall, and production resumption plans are highly dependent on lead prices. In July, batteries enter the consumption off-season, with downstream only making small tentative purchases at low prices, and there is no concentrated restocking. Lead prices are in the doldrums in the short term, and a stop in their decline will require downstream concentrated purchasing and the implementation of secondary lead production cuts.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary: EVA Inventory Pressure Significantly Eased, Cell Cost Support Further Reduced] Topcon full-size quotes continued their downward trend, with transaction ranges for 183N and 210R moving down to 0.27-0.28 yuan/W. Mainstream producers quoted mainly at 0.275 yuan/W, and some, to facilitate deals, were willing to negotiate actual orders down to 0.27 yuan/W. The market transaction center kept declining. At this stage, producers' inventory backlogs and shipment pressures have not eased, downstream module procurement volume has not seen a significant release, and buyers' push for lower prices is strong, making it more difficult to secure new orders. Solar cell plants can only passively follow the market and sell at reduced margins to move shipments. Short-term futures still have room for further decline.