Refined Cobalt: This week, spot refined cobalt prices trended downward under the influence of capital flows and macro sentiment. Supply side, mainstream smelters kept ex-factory prices stable; after spot prices fell, traders' sentiment to hold prices firm strengthened, and spot-futures price spread quotations were raised to above parity. Demand side, lower spot prices improved downstream purchasing sentiment and slightly lifted transactions, but affected by fluctuations in related metals, downstream buyers remained cautious and mainly made just-in-time procurement. This week, the DRC announced an extension of cobalt intermediate product export quotas for Q4 2025, increasing export uncertainty; the structurally tight raw material situation in China remained unresolved, providing bottom support for cobalt prices. Cobalt Intermediate Products: This week, cobalt intermediate product prices edged up. The DRC announced its quota extension policy, under which Q4 2025 quotas can be extended by up to one month, and Q1 2026 quotas can be extended to the end of June; it is understood that the core reason for the current slow approval process for intermediate products is the lack of local detection personnel. Supply side, some miners sold small volumes of futures cobalt intermediate products this week, with quotations above $25.9/lb. Demand side, most smelters remained on the sidelines as cobalt salt prices struggled to catch up and available-for-sale intermediate products were scarce, and actual transactions were sluggish. Overall, based on the current pace of shipments, large-volume arrivals of cobalt intermediate products at port may be delayed to June-July. After downstream orders become clear and procurement demand is released, intermediate product prices will still have upside room. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to export progress in the DRC and the pace of downstream demand recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: This week, the spot market for cobalt sulphate operated steadily, with no significant price fluctuations, and overall continued to move sideways within a narrow range. Supply side, the continued tightness in raw materials supported smelter quotations, with the mainstream quotation range stable at 95,000-98,000 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the week, a small number of enterprises made low-priced shipments at 91,000-95,000 yuan/mt due to financial reporting and funding pressure, but these enterprises have now basically completed cash realization. Demand remained mediocre, as downstream enterprises were still cautious about expectations for subsequent orders, and their own raw material inventory remained ample, resulting in low purchasing enthusiasm. They only purchased small volumes of low-priced cargoes as needed, and overall market trading activity was weak. In the short term, the market remained in an inventory digestion cycle, with buyers and sellers in a stalemate, making large price swings unlikely. In the long term, uncertainty over raw material supply from the DRC will still support the cost side. As downstream inventories are effectively depleted, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to gradually rebound and recover.

This week, the Co3O4 market maintained a stable operating trend, with overall activity still relatively subdued. Quotations from top-tier enterprises remained at a high level of around 370,000 yuan/mt, while the ongoing phase of tight inventory of cobalt intermediate products continued to provide effective support for prices from the cost side. On the downstream LCO material plant side, the procurement pace still mainly followed immediate needs, with small-volume restocking mostly arranged based on orders on hand. Market inquiry sentiment edged up slightly from the previous week, but the overall improvement remained limited. Looking ahead, the release pace of end-use demand will be the core variable determining procurement intensity on the cathode material side. With demand still clearly weak, the Co3O4 market was still expected to remain mainly stable in the short term, and market participants maintained a wait-and-see stance.

As of now, the FOB price of nickel in Indonesian MHP was $15,383/mt Ni, and the FOB price of cobalt in Indonesian MHP was $51,364/mt Co. MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) were 86.5-87.5, and the payable indicator for cobalt element in MHP (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 94. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte was $15,666/mt Ni.

Inter-product price spreads are a segment of the rebar spread system characterized by complex logic and abundant trading opportunities. Unlike the spot-futures price spread, which reflects the spot-futures structure, and calendar spreads, which reflect near- and far-term expectations, the core of inter-product price spreads lies in macroeconomic structural adjustment and profit distribution across the industry chain. From the perspective of the industry chain, inter-product price spreads for long steel products are mainly concentrated in the following four areas:

On March 30, the Shenzhen Municipal Commerce Bureau issued the Three-Year Action Plan of Shenzhen to Promote the Improvement of Quality and Efficiency in Foreign Trade—Special Measures for “Export Shenzhen.” It stated that support would be provided for the import of advanced technological equipment and key parts needed for the development of the “20+8” industrial clusters; enterprises would be guided and assisted in actively applying for national import interest subsidy support for technologies and products included in the Catalog of Technologies and Products Encouraged for Import; and “one-on-one” tax reduction and exemption guidance services would be provided for enterprises engaged in related frontier technology products. Personalized regulatory measures would be formulated for the import of important intermediate products required for the development of industries such as integrated circuits and flat-panel display modules, so as to promote the efficient input of key materials and components into R&D and production. Efforts would also be made to explore and advance pilot imports of used key parts for automotive R&D testing.

[SMM Tin Morning Briefing: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Opened Slightly Higher in the Night Session and Then Fluctuated Lower, While Trading in the Spot Market Was Relatively Weak]