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- Pullback as an Opportunity: Analysts Raise Gold Forecast to $6,300!
Gold has lost significant ground in recent weeks, but for Wells Fargo, this apparently changes little in the long-term picture. The US bank has reaffirmed its positive outlook for the precious metal and significantly raised its price target for the current year.
Apr 1, 2026 11:10 - Review of Aluminum Prices in Q1 2026 [SMM Analysis]
I. Review of SHFE Aluminum Price Trends in Q1 2026 (by Stage) January: The market’s core trading logic deviated from fundamentals and centered on macro expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts Fundamentals: Chinese New Year off-season + demand vacuum + inventory buildup Aluminum prices continued to climb and hit a record high for the period, while downstream profit margins came under pressure, leading to weaker demand for primary aluminum. Repeated environmental protection-driven production restrictions in some regions constrained demand for raw materials. Aluminum social inventory continued to accumulate. As of end-January, SMM aluminum ingot social inventory rose to 782,000 mt, a high for the same period in the past three years. Macro front: In January, the US Fed was in an interest rate cut cycle, and the US dollar weakened significantly. Large amounts of capital flowed into the commodities futures market, driving broad commodity prices higher; together with favorable support from China’s consumption stimulus policies, this jointly supported aluminum prices. February: The market’s core trading logic deviated from fundamentals and centered on macro expectations for the US Fed to keep interest rates unchanged Fundamentals: Aluminum prices were generally in the doldrums. Affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, procurement demand from China’s downstream processing enterprises dropped sharply, aluminum plants showed stronger willingness to cast ingots, and aluminum social inventory continued to accumulate. After the Chinese New Year holiday, SMM aluminum ingot social inventory rose to 1.108 million mt. Elevated inventory levels struggled to provide effective upward support for aluminum prices. Macro front: Cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts pushed the US dollar index higher, and profit-taking outflows triggered a pullback in aluminum prices, further reinforcing their weak and rangebound trend. March: The market’s core trading logic repeatedly switched between supply-side disruptions in the Middle East and demand-side suppression. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified, dominating aluminum prices in a volatile pattern of “surge - correction - rebound.” Supply side: I. Production cut events occurred frequently on the overseas supply side, and disruptions continued to intensify. Mozal entered maintenance status. Qatar Aluminium Smelter announced its decision to stop further production cuts and maintain a 60% operating rate. Aluminium Bahrain initiated shutdowns of Production Lines 1, 2, and 3 under controlled and safe conditions, and the market later heard that Line 4 might also face production cuts or suspension. EGA’s aluminum plant facilities suffered severe damage, and the extent of the damage was still under assessment. The market expected it to undergo large-scale production cuts or suspensions. Ongoing concerns over continued tightening on the overseas supply side became the core driver pushing aluminum prices higher in stages. II. As the Middle East conflict continued to escalate, shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz drew widespread market attention, further increasing uncertainty over global aluminum supply and continuously injecting a geopolitical risk premium into aluminum prices, supporting prices fluctuating at highs. Demand Side: 1. From a macro perspective, concerns over stagflation continued to intensify, risk-off market sentiment picked up, dragging aluminum prices into a pullback and limiting upside room. 2. Hidden concerns on the demand side outside China became more prominent. Some downstream processing enterprises were constrained by multiple factors, triggering market concerns over weak demand: 1) high aluminum prices significantly suppressed downstream purchase willingness, hindering demand release; 2) shortages of energy resources such as natural gas and oil put some processing enterprises under pressure to reduce or suspend production; 3) costs such as freight rates rose sharply, and together with higher smelting costs, further squeezed the profit margins of downstream enterprises, indirectly suppressing demand release. Source: SMM
Mar 31, 2026 19:27 - The Most-Traded BC Copper Contract Closed Down 0.09%, with Macro Uncertainty Keeping Copper Prices Fluctuating [SMM BC Copper Commentary]
Today, the most-traded BC copper 2605 contract opened at 85,020 yuan/mt. Its center fluctuated upward and, after hitting a high of 84,940 yuan/mt, began to decline. Near the close, it touched a low of 84,260 yuan/mt and finally settled at 84,410 yuan/mt, down 0.09%. Open interest reached 6,279 lots, an increase of 157 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume came in at 3,298 lots, a decrease of 1,106 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, a US Fed governor mentioned that interest rates could be cut gradually by 1 percentage point within a year, while Powell said energy shocks are usually short-lived and patience is warranted. After the remarks, the market priced in only about 3 basis points of rate cuts by year-end. Meanwhile, Iran’s parliament approved the imposition of strait transit fees, US-Iran talks continued, Trump threatened to strike Iran’s energy facilities if the talks collapsed, and Europe said Iran had armed the Houthis in the Red Sea conflict, though internal differences remained. The market was still trading these developments. Fundamentals, supply side, imported cargoes had continued to arrive recently, and overall spot circulation was relatively ample. Demand side, as a new monthly procurement cycle begins, the previously accumulated purchasing demand from downstream enterprises will be gradually released. The SHFE copper 2605 contract closed at 95,340 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract price of 84,410 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 95,383 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2605 contract and BC copper was -43 yuan/mt. The spread remained inverted and narrowed somewhat from the previous day.
Mar 31, 2026 17:11 - Zinc Price Center Shifted Lower in March; How Will It Perform in April? [SMM Analysis]
As of March 31, the most-traded SHFE zinc contract closed at 23,480 yuan/mt, up 1,230 yuan/mt for the month, with a decline of 4.98%. Zinc prices plunged in March, briefly climbing to a high of 24,955 yuan/mt at the beginning of the month and falling to a low of 22,350 yuan/mt in the middle of the month, with the overall price center moving down significantly. After zinc prices plunged in March, how will they move in April?
Mar 31, 2026 16:02 - Deep-Sea Mining Refining Project Planned for the US; Overnight LME Copper Closed Higher, SHFE Copper Edged Lower [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]
SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,223/mt. In early trading, it saw wide swings and climbed to $12,278/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices moved straight downward to a low of $12,153.5/mt, before fluctuating widely again and finally closing at $12,195/mt, up 0.44. Trading volume reached 15,300 lots, and open interest stood at 295,000 lots, down 454 lots from the previous trading day. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 96,100 yuan/mt and hit a high of 96,240 yuan/mt in early trading. Subsequently, the center of copper prices gradually moved lower to 95,210 yuan/mt, before fluctuating rangebound and finally closing at 95,350 yuan/mt, down 0.05. Trading volume reached 36,500 lots, and open interest stood at 183,000 lots, down 2,394 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bulls reducing positions.
Mar 31, 2026 09:10 - Gold: Institutional Demand Wave Yet to Come – Silver Totters Despite Deficit
From the perspective of Sprott’s experts, gold remains a central strategic building block for investors, even if the precious metal suffers in the short term from the rise in US Treasury yields.
Mar 30, 2026 17:52
Announcements
1. SMM 8μm Lithium Battery Copper Foil premium, cif Korea, $/tonne Methodology 1.1 General Principles of SMM Price Assessment Methodology SMM (hereinafter referred to as SMM) is a completely independent third-party service provider that does not participate in any substantive transactions. Instead, it maintains close communication with buyers or sellers in transactions as a market observer or organizer, and provides relevant services to the market. SMM continuously formulates, reviews, and revises its methodologies through communication with industry insiders, adopting the most common product specifications, trade terms, and trade conditions in the industry. It attaches equal importance to normal transactions that meet the specification standards. SMM reserves the right to exclude any price data information deemed to be of poor reliability or non-representative from its price assessments. SMM publishes daily spot metal prices (or price indices, including those for the Chinese market, markets outside China, and global markets), commonly referred to as SMM prices. For each published SMM price, SMM has established a corresponding methodology (all of which are available for reference on SMM’s official website, www.smm.cn). The methodology specifies the methods and procedures for generating and publishing SMM prices, and SMM strictly adheres to these provisions when producing and releasing SMM prices. To align with the actual conditions of the spot market, SMM may make necessary revisions to its price assessment methodology. Such revisions will be announced on SMM’s official website, www.smm.cn, 28 days prior to their formal implementation. For any questions or suggestions regarding SMM prices or their methodology, please contact SMM customer service (contact information can be found on SMM’s official website, www.smm.cn). This document outlines the standards for establishing SMM 8μm Lithium Battery Copper Foil premium, cif Korea, $/tonne. The purpose of SMM in developing this standard is to establish a transparent and verifiable mechanism for SMM price determination. The SMM Benchmark Management Committee also regularly reviews the methodology and its assessment and publication processes. This committee oversees SMM’s methodology and compilation process, ensuring that the prices or indices reflect, as accurately as possible, the objective conditions of the physical spot market for the relevant commodities. If the committee identifies any issues, it will promptly highlight them and propose external consultation and revisions to the current methodology or processes, thereby enhancing the quality of the prices or indices published by SMM. The committee may only propose modifications to the methodology and procedures used for future price or index assessments it cannot alter already published prices or indices. 2. Formation of SMM 8μm Lithium Battery Copper Foil premium, cif Korea, $/tonne 2.1 Significance of the Price Assessment In recent years, with the implementation of domestic and overseas NEV policies and the rapid expansion of NEV production, copper foil used as the anode carrier in lithium-ion batteries has shown a surge in demand. Meanwhile, the new infrastructure wave represented by 5G, along with rapid developments in artificial intelligence, big data, and automotive electronics, has driven increasing demand for copper foil in related electronic circuit industries. The copper foil industry is also advancing toward higher precision, density, and reliability. As industry capacity rises and develops, and enterprises expand into overseas markets such as South Korea, there is a growing need for a fair and standardized operating environment. Copper foil processing fees, beneficial for long-term risk control and management, play a crucial role in the industry's development. In light of this, SMM will officially launch weekly SMM 8μm Lithium Battery Copper Foil premium, cif Korea, $/tonne starting December 26, 2025, at which time SMM price members will be able to simultaneously access historical prices. 2.2 SMM 8μm Lithium Battery Copper Foil premium, cif Korea, $/tonne Price Assessment Methodology 2.2.1 Product Specifications and Standards Given the wide variety of copper foil specifications, SMM uses the 8μm with the largest market share for copper foil premium assessments. The premium assessment adopts 8μm thickness product width: 700-1,000 mm product type: Power Battery with Ordinary Tensile Strength. KS C 2211-2002 Electrolytic Deposit Copper Foil for Printed Circuits standard. 2.2.2 Price Terms The price is a VAT-excluded CIF price at major ports in Korea based on the premium over LME CSP, with a quotation period of M+0 (M M stands for arrival month), quoted in USD per metric ton. 2.2.3 Payment Terms The price assessment reflects payment terms for cash transactions in the month of the transaction. Reference is made to major international payment methods (including D/P documents against payment, D/A documents against acceptance, T/T telegraphic transfer, etc.). If significant deviations from this standard occur, SMM will consider whether to exclude individual samples based on trade volume. For forward payments or letter of credit payments, SMM will adjust based on prevailing interest rates to align with this standard. 2.2.4 Delivery Time Within 4 weeks. 2.2.5 Reference Transaction Volume Min 25 tonnes. 2.2.6 Delivery Location Major Ports in Korea. 2.2.7 Price Publication Time Weekly, last trading day of the week, by 1pm Seoul time. 2.2.8 Price Format The assessed price are presented as a range, indicating the lowest and highest prices. For example: 8μm Lithium Battery Copper Foil premium, cif Korea, $/tonne range 3,000-4,000 $/tonne, average: 3,500 $/tonne. 2.2.9 Price Collection Method SMM will, in accordance with the price collection confirmation agreement, have price analysts regularly collect price information from copper foil industry price contacts via phone, QQ, WeChat, fax, and email. This price information includes concluded transaction prices, the enterprise's expected most likely pending transaction prices, etc. All instant messaging content, email communications, and any records of face-to-face communications will be archived details of phone communications will be recorded and entered into the database. SMM analysts must comply with the Compliance System when reporting any forced or threatened communications from market participants, or any induced offers attempting to influence the assessment. Once published, SMM will not revise or adjust the price on the same day. 2.2.9.1 Assessment (Calculation) of Published Prices Step-1: The final dataset from the previous chapter, which exists as a processing fee range, is split into several lower limit values and several upper limit values for two different types of enterprise classifications in this methodology version: copper foil producers and downstream end-users. Arithmetic averages are calculated for both sets and rounded to the nearest whole number. Among these: - When both transaction information and offer/counteroffer information are present, the weight of transaction information is set at 60%, and offer/counteroffer information at 40%. - When transaction information, offer/counteroffer information, and other information are all present, the weight of transaction information is set at 50%, offer/counteroffer information at 40%, and other information at 10%. - When only offer/counteroffer information and other information are present, the weight of offer/counteroffer information is set at 90%, and other information at 10%. Step-2: The two price ranges derived from the previous step, which exist as processing fee states, are split into two lower limit values and two upper limit values. Weights are applied, and weighted averages are calculated, then rounded to the nearest whole number. In this methodology version, copper foil producers are weighted at 50%, and downstream enterprises at 50%. Step-3: The relevant calculation coefficients above will be adjusted every six months to ensure timeliness. 2.2.9.2 Data Standardization Although SMM has standardized definitions for our prices, diversity exists in market transactions. The price of each transaction is influenced by numerous factors, including order size, brand of goods, delivery time, payment terms, etc. SMM will comprehensively consider market offers, bids, and transaction information, aligning them with our standards. Each price datum will be electronically recorded or accompanied by written records. All electronic and paper records must be archived by price collection personnel and retained long-term (at least 5 years) in secure network and physical environments. For details, please refer to the SMM Data Retention Policy. 2.2.9.3 Price Assessment Process The specific process is as follows: 2.3 Methodology Changes All markets change, and SMM has a responsibility to ensure that the methodology for market reports evolves with the market. Therefore, SMM will regularly conduct internal reviews of the methodology's appropriateness based on industry feedback. For all substantive but non-urgent potential modifications, SMM will follow a formal external consultation process. Major changes will then be announced with a notice period of at least 28 days, inviting industry comments, unless special circumstances, particularly force majeure (natural disasters, war, exchange bankruptcy, etc.), necessitate a shorter notice period. SMM is committed to carefully considering all comments on proposed methodology changes, but in some cases, it may be necessary to proceed with changes contrary to the wishes of some market participants. Additionally, SMM has a formal methodology consultation process. SMM commits to holding a formal consultation on the methodology every three years. The date of the last consultation and the deadline for the next consultation committed by SMM are located at the top of the methodology document. 2.4 Compliance with SMM Policies All relevant SMM employees must not only comply with the methodology published by SMM but also adhere to SMM's internal standards and policies. These include: SMM Conflict of Interest Policy, SMM Whistleblower Policy, SMM Error Correction Policy, SMM Methodology Review Consultation and Change Policy, SMM Complaints Policy, etc. Welcome more relevant enterprises in the industry chain to participate and support SMM in better serving related enterprises in the copper foil industry chain. For inquiries, please contact: Shanghai Metals Market Copper Research Team, Shanyu Jiang Contact: 021-20707916, +86 15615750662
PriceDec 23, 2025 15:001. SMM 8μm Lithium Battery Copper Foil premium, CIF US, USD/tonne Methodology 1.1 General Principles of SMM Price Assessment Methodology SMM (hereinafter referred to as SMM) is a completely independent third-party service provider that does not participate in any substantive transactions. Instead, it maintains close communication with buyers or sellers in transactions as a market observer or organizer, and provides relevant services to the market. SMM continuously formulates, reviews, and revises its methodologies through communication with industry insiders, adopting the most common product specifications, trade terms, and trade conditions in the industry. It attaches equal importance to normal transactions that meet the specification standards. SMM reserves the right to exclude any price data information deemed to be of poor reliability or non-representative from its price assessments. SMM publishes daily spot metal prices (or price indices, including those for the Chinese market, markets outside China, and global markets), commonly referred to as SMM prices. For each published SMM price, SMM has established a corresponding methodology (all of which are available for reference on SMM’s official website, www.smm.cn). The methodology specifies the methods and procedures for generating and publishing SMM prices, and SMM strictly adheres to these provisions when producing and releasing SMM prices. To align with the actual conditions of the spot market, SMM may make necessary revisions to its price assessment methodology. Such revisions will be announced on SMM’s official website, www.smm.cn, 28 days prior to their formal implementation. For any questions or suggestions regarding SMM prices or their methodology, please contact SMM customer service (contact information can be found on SMM’s official website, www.smm.cn). This document outlines the standards for establishing SMM 8μm Lithium Battery Copper Foil premium, CIF US, USD/tonne. The purpose of SMM in developing this standard is to establish a transparent and verifiable mechanism for SMM price determination. The SMM Benchmark Management Committee also regularly reviews the methodology and its assessment and publication processes. This committee oversees SMM’s methodology and compilation process, ensuring that the prices or indices reflect, as accurately as possible, the objective conditions of the physical spot market for the relevant commodities. If the committee identifies any issues, it will promptly highlight them and propose external consultation and revisions to the current methodology or processes, thereby enhancing the quality of the prices or indices published by SMM. The committee may only propose modifications to the methodology and procedures used for future price or index assessments it cannot alter already published prices or indices. 2. Formation of SMM 8μm Lithium Battery Copper Foil premium, CIF US, USD/tonne 2.1 Significance of the Price Assessment In recent years, with the implementation of domestic and overseas new energy vehicle policies and the rapid expansion of NEV production, copper foil used as the anode carrier in lithium-ion batteries has shown a surge in demand. The wave of new infrastructure represented by 5G, along with rapid developments in artificial intelligence, big data, and automotive electronics, has increasingly expanded the demand for copper foil in related electronic circuit industries. The copper foil industry is also moving towards higher precision, density, and reliability. With the rise and development of industry capacity, overseas markets such as the US increasingly require a fair and standardized operating environment. Copper foil processing fees have long been beneficial for enterprises to control risks and facilitate management, playing a crucial role in the industry's development. In view of this, SMM will officially launch weekly price assessments for 8μm Lithium Battery Copper Foil premium, CIF US, USD/tonne starting October 10, 2025. SMM price members will be able to simultaneously access historical prices at that time. 2.2 SMM 8μm Lithium Battery Copper Foil premium, CIF US, USD/tonne Price Assessment Methodology 2.2.1 Product Specifications and Standards Given the wide variety of copper foil specifications, SMM uses the 8μm with the largest market share for copper foil premium assessments. The premium assessment adopts 8μm thickness product width: 700-1,000 mm product type: Power Battery with Ordinary Tensile Strength. 2.2.2 Price Terms The price is a VAT-excluded CIF price at major ports on the US east coast based on the premium over LME CSP, with a quotation period of M+0 (M being the month of shipment), quoted in US dollars per metric ton. 2.2.3 Payment Terms The price assessment reflects payment terms for cash transactions in the month of the transaction. Reference is made to major international payment methods (including D/P documents against payment, D/A documents against acceptance, T/T telegraphic transfer, etc.). If significant deviations from this standard occur, SMM will consider whether to exclude individual samples based on trade volume. For forward payments or letter of credit payments, SMM will adjust based on prevailing interest rates to align with this standard. 2.2.4 Delivery Time Within 2 months. 2.2.5 Reference Transaction Volume Min 25 tonnes. 2.2.6 Delivery Location Major Ports on the US East Coast. 2.2.7 Price Publication Time Weekly, by 1:00 US time. 2.2.8 Price Format The assessed price are presented as a range, indicating the lowest and highest prices. For example: 8μm Lithium Battery Copper Foil premium, CIF US, USD/tonne range 5,000-6,000 USD/tonne, average: 5,500 USD/tonne. 2.2.9 Price Collection Method SMM will, in accordance with the price collection confirmation agreement, have price analysts regularly collect price information from copper foil industry price contacts via phone, QQ, WeChat, fax, and email. This price information includes concluded transaction prices, the enterprise's expected most likely pending transaction prices, etc. All instant messaging content, email communications, and any records of face-to-face communications will be archived details of phone communications will be recorded and entered into the database. SMM analysts must comply with the Compliance System when reporting any forced or threatened communications from market participants, or any induced offers attempting to influence the assessment. Once published, SMM will not revise or adjust the price on the same day. 2.2.9.1 Assessment (Calculation) of Published Prices Step-1: The final dataset from the previous chapter, which exists as a processing fee range, is split into several lower limit values and several upper limit values for two different types of enterprise classifications in this methodology version: copper foil producers and downstream end-users. Arithmetic averages are calculated for both sets and rounded to the nearest whole number. Among these: - When both transaction information and offer/counteroffer information are present, the weight of transaction information is set at 60%, and offer/counteroffer information at 40%. - When transaction information, offer/counteroffer information, and other information are all present, the weight of transaction information is set at 50%, offer/counteroffer information at 40%, and other information at 10%. - When only offer/counteroffer information and other information are present, the weight of offer/counteroffer information is set at 90%, and other information at 10%. Step-2: The two price ranges derived from the previous step, which exist as processing fee states, are split into two lower limit values and two upper limit values. Weights are applied, and weighted averages are calculated, then rounded to the nearest whole number. In this methodology version, copper foil producers are weighted at 60%, and downstream enterprises at 40%. Step-3: The relevant calculation coefficients above will be adjusted every six months to ensure timeliness. 2.2.9.2 Data Standardization Although SMM has standardized definitions for our prices, diversity exists in market transactions. The price of each transaction is influenced by numerous factors, including order size, brand of goods, delivery time, payment terms, etc. SMM will comprehensively consider market offers, bids, and transaction information, aligning them with our standards. Each price datum will be electronically recorded or accompanied by written records. All electronic and paper records must be archived by price collection personnel and retained long-term (at least 5 years) in secure network and physical environments. For details, please refer to the SMM Data Retention Policy. 2.2.9.3 Price Assessment Process The specific process is as follows: 2.3 Methodology Changes All markets change, and SMM has a responsibility to ensure that the methodology for market reports evolves with the market. Therefore, SMM will regularly conduct internal reviews of the methodology's appropriateness based on industry feedback. For all substantive but non-urgent potential modifications, SMM will follow a formal external consultation process. Major changes will then be announced with a notice period of at least 28 days, inviting industry comments, unless special circumstances, particularly force majeure (natural disasters, war, exchange bankruptcy, etc.), necessitate a shorter notice period. SMM is committed to carefully considering all comments on proposed methodology changes, but in some cases, it may be necessary to proceed with changes contrary to the wishes of some market participants. Additionally, SMM has a formal methodology consultation process. SMM commits to holding a formal consultation on the methodology every three years. The date of the last consultation and the deadline for the next consultation committed by SMM are located at the top of the methodology document. 2.4 Compliance with SMM Policies All relevant SMM employees must not only comply with the methodology published by SMM but also adhere to SMM's internal standards and policies. These include: SMM Conflict of Interest Policy, SMM Whistleblower Policy, SMM Error Correction Policy, SMM Methodology Review Consultation and Change Policy, SMM Complaints Policy, etc. Welcome more relevant enterprises in the industry chain to participate and support SMM in better serving related enterprises in the copper foil industry chain. For inquiries, please contact: Shanghai Metals Market Copper Research Team, Shanyu Jiang Contact: 021-20707916, +86 15615750662
PriceSep 25, 2025 16:18