[Geopolitical News Disruptions Continue, SHFE and LME Maintain Fluctuating Trend] At the beginning of the week, mixed news on Middle East peace talks rekindled short-term risk-averse sentiment in the market. Sporadic conflicts persisted, the tariff outlook remained unclear, and LME zinc continued to rise......

SHFE tin opened the week with a rally in full swing, pushing prices to within striking distance of an all-time high, primarily driven by supply-side disruptions and the computing power theme. In the last two days, however, the market suddenly reversed course, with prices pulling back sharply in a broad decline that completely erased the week’s earlier gains. What changed in the market’s trading logic? Rise and Fall on the Same Catalyst: Semiconductor Stocks Pull Back As the iteration of large AI models advances and high-end computing power chips are upgraded, the amount of solder required in their production increases. This year, tin’s label as a computing-power metal has continued to strengthen. Amid the AI frenzy, semiconductor indices outside China maintained a sustained rally, which not only boosted demand expectations for tin but also significantly benefited tin prices through the stock-futures linkage effect. However, heights breed danger. After a parabolic surge, chip stocks repeatedly hit new highs. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index components recently traded at 26 times forward 12-month earnings, well above the 10-year average of 21 times. The AI space became increasingly crowded, and market disagreement grew over the rally’s sustainability. Going forward, whether AI demand effectively spreads and the earnings performance of chip leaders have become the market’s center of focus. The newly released revenue of chipmaker Broadcom missed expectations, cooling the AI fervour to some extent. Overnight, chip stocks suffered a collective sell-off, and today the South Korean stock market plunged, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix falling sharply. Against the backdrop of a significant pullback in semiconductor stocks, tin prices were inevitably dragged down, leading the decline in China’s commodity futures market today. The market is now assessing whether AI infrastructure investment has already overdrawn future growth expectations, though some investors remain optimistic. Yesterday, the US Nasdaq index opened lower but rebounded to largely recoup its losses by the close. The overall market style displayed a rotation of funds rather than a mass exodus, making it difficult to argue that the bullish expectations for future semiconductor stocks have completely dissipated. Overseas Central Bank Policy Expectations Turn Hawkish, Liquidity Concerns Intensify Recent US-Iran negotiations have seen repeated developments, but judging by the overall trend in precious and base metals, the market largely ignored the short-term headline noise. The overall trend remained under pressure, mainly weighed down by liquidity concerns. Market expectations for the timing of potential interest rate hikes by European and US central banks are being pulled forward, with multiple factors reinforcing this view. On one hand, US economic data showed resilience. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 54 in May, a near four-year high and the fifth consecutive month in expansion territory. Some employment data showed improvement, and the labour market maintained its characteristic of "low hiring, low layoffs," providing ample justification for a policy shift. On the other hand, US inflationary pressures are evident. Both the PCE price index and the US Fed’s Beige Book indicated that cooling consumption and rising price pressures have emerged simultaneously across multiple sectors. Uptick in inflation is tightening the outlook for monetary policy. In addition, the overall stance of US Fed officials has turned hawkish. The minutes from the April Federal Reserve meeting showed that the internal assessment has shifted, from previously expecting interest rate cuts later in the year to a greater inclination to maintain current rate levels for an extended period, and even not ruling out a further increase in borrowing costs. Recently, several officials also released hiking signals, stating that if inflation remains persistently high, the possibility of further policy tightening cannot be ruled out. Fundamentals Have Not Shifted, Supply-Side Support Remains Overall, the sharp pullback in SHFE tin over the latest two days was mainly dragged down by liquidity risk and a cooling of the AI frenzy. Tin prices have always exhibited high elasticity. Currently, the futures price has only given back the gains of the preceding two days, with the center not yet moving further downward, which indirectly reflects that support from the tin market’s supply-demand structure still exists. Currently, traditional demand-side tracks remain subdued, while the emerging computing power engine remains robust. Marginal growth keeps demand expectations for the tin market bullish, while ongoing supply-side disruptions bring more upward momentum. Recently, key producing regions including Myanmar, the DRC, and Indonesia have all seen varying degrees of disturbance. Specifically, supply recovery in Myanmar has been slow, hampered by operational restrictions, material approvals, and accidents. The Goma border crossing in the DRC was previously closed due to an Ebola outbreak, raising market concerns about supply disruptions. Indonesia’s export policy outlook carries high uncertainty, with the overall policy direction showing a persistently tightening trend, reflecting deeper resource nationalism and the bottleneck of tin ore flows against the backdrop of resource de-globalization. In summary, current inflationary pressures are intensifying, and interest rate hikes by European and US central banks seem to be on the verge of deployment, making it difficult to expect any easing in liquidity. Commodity trends will remain under pressure. However, the computing power theme is unlikely to fizzle out, and mine-side supply growth is limited, which may restrict near-term downside space. The market retains a bullish outlook for SHFE tin over the medium and long term. (Wenhua, Synthesized)

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2607 contract opened at 25,100 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc surged to test 25,280 yuan/mt before pulling back under pressure. It continued to weaken during the session, dipping to 25,005 yuan/mt. Toward the close, it rebounded slightly to recover part of the losses, ultimately closing down at 25,070 yuan/mt, down 80 yuan/mt or 0.32%. Trading volume decreased to 55,949 lots, and open interest fell by 933 lots to 112,000 lots.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: US ADP Employment Data Falls Short of Expectations, LME Zinc Center Moves Lower] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,636/mt. At the beginning of the session, LME zinc fluctuated around the daily average line. As the European trading session began, bulls increased their open interest, and LME zinc oscillated higher to touch $3,658/mt. Prices at night session continued to pull back, dipping to $3,593/mt. Toward the end of the session, prices stopped falling and rebounded, slightly recovering lost ground, ultimately closing lower at $3,603/mt, down $27.5/mt, a decline of 0.76%. Trading volume decreased to 88,462 lots, and open interest increased by 3,764 lots to 231,000 lots.

SMM June 3 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market rose nearly across the board. SHFE copper gained 1.03%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.45%, SHFE lead rose 0.45%, SHFE zinc gained 1.61%, SHFE tin rose 1.83%, and SHFE nickel fell 0.64%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.39%, and the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.51%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures continued the downtrend from the previous two trading days, falling 2.58%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.63%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 1.96%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore was flat at 784.5 yuan/mt, rebar edged down 0.09%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.21%, and stainless steel rose 0.2%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.26%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.18%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.34%, LME aluminum rose 0.17%, LME lead and LME nickel both fell within 0.4%. LME zinc and LME tin edged up. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.16% and COMEX silver fell 0.29%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.07%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.18%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.82%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.02%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 0.67%, closing at 3,758 points. As of 11:41 on June 3, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract in North China were reported at an average discount of 400 yuan/mt to a discount of 300 yuan/mt, with the average discount of 350 yuan/mt down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 106,360 yuan/mt, up 825 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front China: [PBOC reverse repo operations achieved a net withdrawal of 177.6 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted zero reverse repo operations today. As 177.6 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 177.6 billion yuan was achieved on the day. [ Zibo, Shandong: Optimizing housing provident fund usage policies ] Zibo officially implemented new optimized provident fund policies, adopting multiple measures to boost housing consumption and safeguard residents' essential and upgrading housing needs. The new policies broadened the scope of provident fund withdrawals, allowing down payment and owner-occupied housing withdrawals to be linked with funds from the homebuyer's spouse, both parents, and children. Elevator installation withdrawals were also expanded to include old elevator replacement scenarios. Lending side, housing unit count can be reduced for families with multiple children, purchases of high-grade residential properties or completed homes, and one loan record can be waived for trade-in policies; the upper limit of second-hand housing age plus loan term was raised to 50 years, and the lending ban on properties over 300㎡ was lifted. The new policy added loan extension services, while opening up commercial-to-provident fund and commercial-to-combined loan conversions for flexible employment workers, further reducing residents' home purchase and repayment costs. US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 99.24. US April JOLTs job openings surged from 6.89 million in March to 7.62 million, reaching the highest level in nearly two years, while layoffs declined. These signs indicated that the labour market remained robust despite pressure on enterprises from rising energy costs caused by the Iran war. The professional and business services sector accounted for nearly all of the increase. Total hiring fell to 5.12 million, partially offsetting the sharp increase in March, while layoffs also declined to 1.69 million. These data suggested that US labour demand has stabilized this year compared to near-zero job growth in 2025. Although job openings remained well below levels reached during the post-pandemic reopening period, this stability may further undermine the case for interest rate cuts, with US Fed officials increasingly discussing the possibility of rate hikes. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 98.6%, with a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through July was 92.4%, with a 6.3% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike, and a 1.3% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. Fed Chairman Waller has hired two outside individuals as advisors to assist him in the early stages of his tenure; one of them co-authored a conservative policy blueprint that recommended sweeping structural reforms to the US Fed. According to people familiar with the matter, one of the advisors is Paul Winfree. He served as a White House domestic policy expert during Trump's first term. He is also a credited author of the US Fed chapter in "Project 2025," a conservative policy blueprint developed ahead of the 2024 election. The other advisor is Daniel Heil, a policy fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution who served as an economic policy advisor to the 2016 presidential campaign team. His recent writings have primarily focused on cutting federal healthcare spending costs and social security issues. Both individuals have long been active in conservative policy circles, and their professional backgrounds lie in areas outside the US Fed's core responsibilities. A person familiar with the matter said the two advisors would work on temporary contracts to assist Warsh with policy analysis and planning; Warsh has not yet made a final decision on whether they will take on longer-term, formal job titles within the US Fed. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: Traders were reluctant to push the yen exchange rate above the key 160 level amid the risk of intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen. The yen edged down to near 160 in early Wednesday trading, touching its weakest level since the authorities intervened in late April. The yen still declined despite Japan spending a record 11.73 trillion yen ($73.35 billion) to support the currency between April 28 and May 27. Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki reiterated on Wednesday that the authorities were prepared to respond to foreign exchange fluctuations at any time as needed. Gaitame.com Research Institute analyst Nakamura Tsutomu said: "As USD/JPY approaches the 160 level, intervention concerns are escalating rapidly, triggering a psychological battle in the market, but a test of 160 could happen at any time. With almost no signs of a breakthrough in US-Iran permanent ceasefire negotiations, pressure on the yen is increasing. The large interest rate differential between the US and Japan is also putting the yen under pressure after the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged in April. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo is scheduled to speak on Wednesday afternoon, his last scheduled speech before the central bank's rate-setting meeting on June 16." Overnight index swaps indicated the probability of a rate hike this month was approximately 84%. (Jin10 Data APP) Australia's economic growth slowed more than expected last quarter as households cut spending in the face of rising fuel costs and higher interest rates. Government data released on Wednesday showed GDP grew 0.3% in the first three months of the year, below expectations and roughly one-third of the Q4 2025 growth rate. The 2.5% annual growth rate also fell short of expectations. The head of national accounts at the Australian Bureau of Statistics said: "Economic growth slowed in the March quarter, with mild household and public sector spending. Rising interest rates and significantly higher fuel costs in March likely created an environment of more cautious consumer behavior." Swap traders consolidated the view that the probability of a rate hike at the August meeting was only slightly above 50%, and maintained the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia may raise rates once more before year-end. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Data to be released today include US May ADP employment, US May S&P Global Services PMI final, US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US April factory orders month-over-month, France May Services PMI final, Eurozone May Services PMI final, Eurozone April PPI month-over-month, Germany May Services PMI final, UK May Services PMI final, and Australia Q1 GDP annual rate. In addition, attention should be paid to: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will deliver a speech, and US Fed Governor Barr will participate in a dialogue at the 2026 Community Development Bankers Association Peer Forum. Crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.92% and Brent up 0.82%. According to CCTV News: On June 2 local time, the US Central Command stated that US forces took action against an oil tanker heading to an Iranian port in the Arabian Gulf and disabled it. The war between Iran and the US has no end in sight, diplomatic negotiations have stalled, and military conflicts in the Gulf region continue to escalate. A series of developments indicate that this conflict, which erupted in late February this year, continues to drain all parties through repeated frictions. Oil prices rose after the news broke. (Wallstreetcn) US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 29 was -6.757 million barrels, vs. expectations of -3.605 million barrels and a prior value of -2.819 million barrels. US API gasoline inventory for the week ending May 29 was 3.454 million barrels, vs. expectations of -98,000 barrels and a prior value of -3.199 million barrels. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 3 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals generally rose across both domestic and overseas markets, with only LME nickel and SHFE nickel declining together. LME nickel fell 0.05%, and SHFE nickel fell 0.28%. SHFE tin and LME tin rose over 2%, with SHFE tin up 2.22% and LME tin up 2.6%. LME lead, LME zinc, SHFE copper, and SHFE zinc all rose over 1%, with LME lead up 1.24% and LME zinc up 1.37%. SHFE zinc rose 1.57%, SHFE copper rose 1.05%, and the remaining metals gained less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract fell 1.23%, while the foundry aluminum front-month contract rose 0.9%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally rose, with iron ore being the only decliner, down 0.13%. The remaining metals gained less than 1%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 0.44% and coke rose 0.88%. Precious metals: Overnight COMEX gold rose 0.29%, and COMEX silver rose 0.25%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.17% and SHFE silver rose 0.24%. As of 6:44 AM on June 3, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Accelerating Agricultural and Rural Modernization": Encouraging the establishment of rural revitalization funds through market-oriented approaches and supporting eligible enterprises in bond financing for rural revitalization] The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Accelerating Agricultural and Rural Modernization." It mentioned improving the agricultural and rural investment mechanism, establishing a diversified investment structure with fiscal priority guarantees, financial sector focus, and active social participation, ensuring continuously strengthened investment in rural revitalization. Agriculture and rural areas will be prioritized in general public budget guarantees, making good use of central government budgetary investment, local government bonds, and other funding channels, strengthening full-chain supervision of rural revitalization funds, strictly investigating fraud, misappropriation, and other issues, and improving the effectiveness of fiscal policies supporting agriculture and fund efficiency. The rural financial service system will be improved, medium and long-term lending to agriculture and rural areas will be increased, rural digital inclusive finance will be developed, and rural credit system construction will be promoted. The risk protection role of agricultural insurance will be leveraged, development of local specialty agricultural product insurance will be supported, and claims settlement efficiency will be improved. Private investment will be guided to participate in rural revitalization in a lawful, standardized, and orderly manner, capital market services for agriculture-related entities will be enriched, the establishment of rural revitalization funds through market-oriented approaches will be encouraged, and eligible enterprises will be supported in bond financing for rural revitalization. [Unitree Robotics' STAR Market IPO approved] On June 1, the SSE Listing Review Committee held its 31st listing review meeting of 2026. The review results showed that Unitree Robotics Co., Ltd.'s IPO met the issuance conditions, listing conditions, and information disclosure requirements. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of overnight close, the US dollar rose 0.03% to 99.22. Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that US job openings in April jumped to their highest level in nearly two years, with professional and business services accounting for nearly all of the gains, and layoffs declined. This further indicated that the labour market remained resilient even as businesses had to cope with rising energy costs triggered by the Iran war. The data suggested that labour demand was stabilizing this year after employment growth nearly stalled in 2025, which could further weaken the case for interest rate cuts, especially as US Fed officials were increasingly discussing the possibility of rate hikes. (Wallstreetcn) According to sources, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh hired conservative policy analysts Paul Winfree and Daniel Heil as temporary advisors. The two will assist Warsh with policy analysis and special projects, serving in a temporary capacity. (Wallstreetcn APP) Fed Chairman Warsh stated in a memo sent and reviewed by Reuters: "Our top priority will be getting policy right to serve our mandate and the national interest. We will ensure we create an environment that supports our staff in doing their best work and building their careers. We will not rely on past practices when we find better alternatives. In the coming quarters, I hope we can engage together in open, clear-eyed discussions about the Fed's strategy, policy, and operations." (Wallstreetcn APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 98.6%, with a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through July was 92.4%, with a 6.3% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike and a 1.3% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Today will see the release of China's May RatingDog Services PMI, US May ADP employment figures, US May S&P Global Services PMI final reading, US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US April factory orders month-over-month, France's May Services PMI final reading, Eurozone May Services PMI final reading, Eurozone April PPI month-over-month, Germany's May Services PMI final reading, UK May Services PMI final reading, and Australia's Q1 GDP year-over-year, among other data. In addition, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will deliver a speech, and US Fed Governor Barr will participate in a dialogue at the 2026 Community Development Bankers Association Peer Forum. Crude oil: Overnight, oil prices rose across both markets, with WTI up 1.33% and Brent up 1.01%. The market was still awaiting progress in US-Iran negotiations, and combined with continued declines in global crude oil inventory and expectations of peak summer demand season, multiple factors supported oil price strength. American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that last week, US API crude oil inventory was -6.757 million barrels, compared to -2.819 million barrels the previous week. Last week, API Cushing crude oil inventory was -279,000 barrels, versus -2.875 million barrels previously. Last week, API gasoline inventory was +3.454 million barrels (previous: -3.199 million barrels), and distillate inventory was -214,000 barrels (previous: +11.03 million barrels). (Wallstreetcn APP) IEA oil head: Rising prices and a weak economic outlook led to declining transport fuel demand. If crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz do not resume, oil inventory drawdowns will continue into the summer. Inventory could reach critical levels before peak summer demand arrives. (Wallstreetcn APP) Tom Baker, Managing Director for Bahrain at global commodities trading giant Vitol, stated that the oil market was underestimating some of the risks from the Iran war. Baker said at the S&P Global Energy Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference in London: "Crude supply may be able to recover, but from a refined petroleum products perspective, the system may struggle to catch up for the remainder of the year." (Wallstreetcn APP)