Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 86,640 yuan/mt and immediately hit a session high of 86,640 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center kept moving lower, and it touched a session low of 82,930 yuan/mt near the close, before finally settling at 83,380 yuan/mt, down 4.59%. Open interest reached 5,565 lots, up 133 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume came in at 7,286 lots, up 2,262 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting increased short positions by bears. On the macro front, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged, while the dot plot turned hawkish. The market expected that a Fed interest rate cut remained a distant prospect, putting copper prices under pressure. In addition, tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate, with Israel killing Iran’s intelligence minister and striking targets in northern Iran, while Iran retaliated by attacking energy facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The geopolitical conflict pushed up oil prices, intensified inflation risks, and drove the US dollar index higher, all of which were bearish for copper prices. On the fundamentals front, arrivals of both imported and domestic cargoes remained stable, with overall supply ample. Demand side, affected by the pullback in copper prices, downstream purchase willingness continued to rebound. Inventory side, as of Thursday, March 19, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China fell 8.85% WoW from the previous Thursday, while total inventory increased 176,700 mt YoY, with destocking seen across all regions. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 94,430 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract price of 83,380 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 94,219 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was 211 yuan/mt, and the spread remained in contango structure, narrowing from the previous day.
Mar 19, 2026 14:55SMM Nickel News, March 19: Macro and Market News: (1) The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, while Governor Milan believed rates should be cut by 25 basis points. The impact of developments in the Middle East on the US economy remained uncertain. The dot plot maintained expectations for one interest rate cut in each of the next two years, but the distribution turned more hawkish. Market bets on the US Fed's rate cuts for the full year were reduced from about 20 basis points to less than 11 basis points. (2) Powell believed interest rates were at the high end of the neutral range, or slightly restrictive, leaving policy in a favorable position, and said the current situation was not stagflation. This energy supply disruption was a one-off event. Regarding whether he would remain in office, Powell stressed that he would not leave before the investigation concluded, and might not leave even after it concluded. If no successor was confirmed, he would continue to serve as acting chair. Spot Market: On March 19, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 3,100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,750 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China were quoted at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) plunged sharply during the session and closed the morning session at 131,760 yuan/mt, down 2.79%. Tensions in the Middle East remained elevated, and the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel triggered market concerns over rising energy prices, intensifying inflation, and economic slowdown. Safe-haven sentiment heated up. Combined with the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged while raising inflation expectations, expectations for interest rate cuts were revised down, causing metal prices to fall sharply across the board. Pressure from the macro perspective may continue to dominate market sentiment, and nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.
Mar 19, 2026 11:41[SMM Tin Commentary: The SHFE Tin Contract Consolidated Near the 370,000 Level, with Market Sentiment Remaining Predominantly Cautious Ahead of the Interest Rate Cut Decision]
Mar 18, 2026 17:54[Price Review] During the week, silver prices remained in the doldrums. In China, the Ag (T+D) contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange broke below the support level of 18,000 yuan/kg, while LBMA silver prices kept probing lower after falling below $75/oz. From a macro perspective, escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices to repeated new highs, while intensifying inflation concerns significantly cooled expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and delayed the timing of the first cut to year-end. The simultaneous strength in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields became the core factors suppressing silver prices. On Wednesday local time, the US Fed announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged. In the statement released that day, it noted that the impact of the Middle East situation on the US economy remained uncertain and that uncertainty surrounding the US economic outlook was still elevated. In addition, speculative demand and ETF holdings continued to decline, and market sentiment kept cooling. As for the gold/silver ratio, because silver posted a deeper decline, the ratio continued to rise. As of March 18, the LBMA gold/silver ratio had climbed to 63, a recent high. [Important Data] Bullish: US preliminary March one-year inflation expectations came in at 3.4%, above expectations and unchanged from the previous reading Bearish: US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.556 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.156 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading Data and macro releases to watch next week include: Continued hawkishness from the US Fed, the ECB rate decision, US inflation/employment data, COMEX silver delivery, together with the Boao Forum and geopolitical risks On March 19, the FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, raised its 2026 PCE forecast to 2.7%, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled sharply. US-Iran Situation: As of March 19, the military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran had entered their 19th day, with high-intensity confrontation, no sign of a ceasefire, and the conflict spreading to multiple Gulf countries. In terms of the current impact on precious metals, financial suppression outweighed safe-haven demand. Against the backdrop of surging inflation expectations, the US dollar and US Treasury yields continued to rise, the timing of US Fed interest rate cuts was delayed, and silver prices were suppressed. [Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the doldrums amid the interplay between macro disruptions and fundamentals. On the macro front, caution is still warranted over the risk of continued US dollar strength and heightened volatility from any further escalation in the US-Iran conflict. On the fundamentals side, as PV export rush orders gradually approached their end, rigid demand for raw material procurement by silver nitrate enterprises declined in late March, weakening support from industrial demand. In China's spot market, as investment demand and rigid industrial demand softened, coupled with replenishment from imported silver ingots, circulating supply of silver ingots in the spot market became ample, and suppliers generally lowered spot premium quotes to facilitate transactions. The abnormally high spot premiums in China's spot market will come to an end. At the same time, profitability on imported silver ingots will also decline sharply, and spot premium quotes in actual spot silver ingot transactions are expected to return to rational levels.
Mar 19, 2026 15:26[SHFE Zinc Continued to Decline Today, with Focus on Overseas Rate Decisions and China Social Inventory] The most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,470 yuan/mt. After the opening, bulls and bears engaged in fierce competition, and SHFE zinc fluctuated rangebound below the daily average line. During the session, SHFE zinc touched a high of 23,475 yuan/mt and a low of 23,260 yuan/mt, and finally closed down at 23,345 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt, or 0.47%. Trading volume increased to 55,115 lots, and open interest increased by 3,955 lots to 95,164 lots.....
Mar 18, 2026 16:30[Geopolitical Tensions Combined With Deferred Interest Rate Cut Expectations Leave SHFE Aluminum Under Short-Term Pressure but Fluctuating at Highs] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still has upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and is expected to maintain a backwardation structure in the short term. China remains in a phase of high inventory coupled with weak fundamentals, and its upward momentum is significantly weaker than that outside China. Amid divergent domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio is expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices are still expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.
Mar 18, 2026 09:09SMM launches the "SMM China Titanium Dioxide Price Index" to provide a transparent pricing reference and reflect market trends, effective from March 20, 2026.
PriceMar 19, 2026 11:59SMM launches graded price points for hafnium oxide and crystal hafnium to enhance pricing reference for the hafnium industry.
PriceMar 9, 2026 14:03Dear User, Greetings! In recent years, the rare earth-NdFeB magnetic material industry chain has been continuously developing. During the process of refining its industry chain, SMM identified that the existing NdFeB-related data in the original terminal could no longer meet market demands. Therefore, after multiple rounds of surveys and verification, SMM has revised and expanded its original NdFeB data. The specific adjustments are as follows: NdFeB Production: 1. Discontinued 1 data point, namely the Monthly NdFeB Magnet Output by Manufacturer. The discontinued data location: Rare Earth - Rare Earth Production – NdFeB Magnet. 2. Added 5 data points, respectively [National Monthly Total Production], [Monthly Total Production of Sample Enterprises], [Monthly Production of Top-Tier Enterprises], [Monthly Production of Mid-Tier Enterprises], [Production Volume of Marginal Enterprises per Month]. The above data locations are all under Rare Earth - Rare Earth Production – NdFeB Magnet. 3. The above data are all updated monthly, with the update date being the last working day of each month, and the data dimension being the current month's data. 4. The data start date is January 2025. NdFeB Operating Rate: 1. Added five data points: [National Average Operating Rate], [Average Operating Rate of Sampled Enterprises in the Current Month], [Operating Rate of Top-Tier Enterprises in the Current Month], [Operating Rate of Mid-Tier Enterprises in the Current Month], [Operating Rate of Marginal Enterprises in the Current Month]. 2. The above data are located under Rare Earths - Rare Earth Operating Rate – NdFeB Magnet. 3. These data are updated monthly, with the update date being the last working day of each month, reflecting the current month's data. 4. The data series begins in January 2025. NdFeB Capacity 1. Added new category: Rare Earth - Rare Earth Capacity 2. Added four data points: [Quarterly Total NdFeB Capacity in China], [Quarterly NdFeB Capacity of National Top-Tier Enterprises], [Quarterly NdFeB Capacity of Mid-Tier Enterprises Nationwide], [Quarterly NdFeB Capacity of Small-Scale Enterprises Nationwide] 3. Location of the above data: Added new category: Rare Earth - Rare Earth Capacity 4. The above data is updated quarterly, with the update date being the last working day of the final month of each quarter. The data dimension reflects the current quarter. 5. The data start date is March 2025. NdFeB Supply-Demand Balance 1. Discontinued 3 data series: [SMM NdFeB Supply-Demand Balance: Supply], [SMM NdFeB Supply-Demand Balance: Consumption], [SMM NdFeB Supply-Demand Balance: Supply-Demand Balance] 2. Added 3 data series: [SMM NdFeB Supply-Demand Balance: National Total Supply], [SMM NdFeB Supply-Demand Balance: National Total Consumption], [SMM NdFeB Supply-Demand Balance: National Total Supply-Demand Balance] 3. Data location: Rare Earth - Supply-Demand Balance - NdFeB 4. These data series are updated monthly on the last business day of each month, reflecting the previous month's data (e.g., July data updated on August 29). 5. Data coverage starts from January 2025. Pr-Nd Alloy Supply-Demand Balance 1. Added a new classification for Pr-Nd alloy supply-demand balance 2. Added three datasets: [SMM Pr-Nd Alloy Supply-Demand Balance: Supply], [SMM Pr-Nd Alloy Supply-Demand Balance: Consumption], [SMM Pr-Nd Alloy Supply-Demand Balance: Supply-Demand Balance] 3. Data location: Rare Earth - Supply & Demand Analysis - Pr-Nd Alloy 4. The above data is updated monthly, with the update date set as the last working day of each month, reflecting the current month's data 5. The data series starts from January 2025 NdFeB Production and Operating Rate Forecast 1. Discontinued two data series: [Production - Forecast] and [Operating rate - Forecast]. 2. These will be replaced by two alternative data series: [NdFeB - Monthly production schedule expectation] and [NdFeB - Monthly operating rate expectation]. The above data adjustments will officially take effect on September 10, 2025. Users can then query the aforementioned data in the SMM data terminal. For any inquiries, please contact the SMM Rare Earth Research Team. SMM Rare Earth Research Team Shi Xin Contact: shixin@smm.cn
DataSep 8, 2025 18:51