SMM May 12: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,977/mt, briefly touched a low of $1,970.5/mt during the Asian session before fluctuating upward; after entering the European session, the rally remained firm, touching a high of $1,990/mt near the close, and finally settled at $1,988.5/mt, up 0.56%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,695 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,710 yuan/mt at the start of the session, then fluctuated downward to probe a low of 16,590 yuan/mt, recovered slightly near the close, and finally settled at 16,655 yuan/mt, down 0.12%, marking a four-day losing streak. This week, the SHFE lead 2605 contract entered the delivery period. Suppliers increasingly shipped to delivery warehouses, and lead ingots were transferred from factory warehouses to social warehouses. The continued accumulation of visible inventory of lead ingots will keep weighing on lead prices. Meanwhile, the concentrated production cuts and shutdowns among secondary lead enterprises became the main driver of supply reduction this month. Combined with the closure of the import window and losses in secondary lead production providing price support, after the delivery-related factors are resolved, lead prices will need to await new influencing factors to emerge. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week was still the weakening of cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed to levy transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump released conciliatory remarks that he was "willing to end military action against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed." Market expectations for tightening crude oil supply weakened, the energy sector declined and dragged down the coal sector, and the cost logic weakened. During the week, inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at low levels compared to the same period in previous years, and fundamentals provided limited impetus for futures. Spot market side, market enthusiasm for purchasing was lukewarm, with restocking mainly at low prices. Spot prices remained relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened...

The gold price has undergone a sharp correction since its January high, unsettling many investors. The price decline of more than $1,000 per ounce appears at first glance to represent a break in the previous uptrend. However, according to analysts at WisdomTree, this movement reflects less a fundamental change in the macroeconomic situation than a combination of position adjustments, liquidity needs, and short-term market pressure.

Currently, China's spot market for metallic rhenium exhibits an operational pattern characterized by divergence between upstream and downstream segments of the industry chain, bilateral supply-demand gaming, and price consolidation at highs. The overall market is jointly influenced by multiple factors including macro investment sentiment, industry chain stockpiling pace, ex-China supply chain risks, and domestic supply-demand fundamentals. I. Upstream: Price Range Held Steady, Producers Accelerated Shipment Pace Mainstream upstream producers of metallic rhenium in China maintained stable raw material quotations, with the core price range controlled around 28,000, while only a few producers raised raw material quotations to around 30,000. The overall price tiers were clear with no wild swings. From the market circulation perspective, upstream producers' willingness to sell increased recently, with shipment frequency rising significantly. II. Midstream: Scheduled Production Concentrated, Low Acceptance of High-Priced Ammonium Perrhenate Midstream refineries and rhenium processing enterprises were all in scheduled production status, with pre-holiday order delivery cycles relatively concentrated, and most producers' orders scheduled for delivery completion in March and April. Cost side and procurement mentality, midstream processing enterprises generally showed low acceptance of high-priced ammonium perrhenate, with the procurement side more inclined toward rational price negotiation and resistant to rushing to buy amid continuous price rise. This mentality directly constrained the upside room for ammonium perrhenate prices. III. Downstream: Investment Sentiment Cooled, Industrial Demand Steadily Recovered The downstream market demand side exhibited clear structural divergence, with investment demand and industrial demand trending in opposite directions, becoming the core factor affecting short-term market sentiment. On one hand, previously active investment demand gradually cooled, market investment atmosphere faded, retail investors showed panic-driven exit sentiment, and low-price dumping phenomena emerged successively in the market. Some holders chose to sell below market price to quickly recover funds, which to some extent impacted short-term spot market transaction prices. On the other hand, industrial demand exhibited a healthy trend of steady recovery and sustained growth. As the core rigid demand support for metallic rhenium, the recovery of industrial demand provided solid fundamental support for the market, offsetting some of the bearish impact from investment-driven selling. IV. Outlook Forecast Combining the macro market environment with industry chain supply-demand fundamentals, the current core logic of China's rhenium market is clear, with bullish and bearish factors intertwined in gaming, jointly driving prices to consolidate at highs. Specific influencing factors and outlook are as follows: Short-term, influenced by the international macro environment, investment enthusiasm in the energy sector continued to surge, diverting market funds, while overall investment sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector pulled back notably. This sentiment gradually transmitted to the niche rare metal rhenium market, suppressing investment-side enthusiasm. Additionally, upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain had completed phased restocking before and after Chinese New Year, with market inventory at a relatively ample level. Raw material prices lacked momentum for significant rallies, and short-term upside room for prices was limited. Long-term, gaming in the international critical minerals field intensified, with US-Chile critical minerals consultations continuing to advance, and the trend toward exclusive cooperation in global critical minerals supply chains becoming increasingly evident, directly leading to declining stability of ex-China ammonium perrhenate import channels and continuously climbing external supply risks. Ammonium perrhenate supply showed a tightening trend, providing support for prices.

On June 12, at the 2025 SMM (13th) Minor Metal Industry Conference - Main Forum, hosted by Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. and SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), Han Xiao, General Manager of Zhishui Investment Co., Ltd., shared insights on the theme of "Review of Gold and Silver Market in 2025 and Future Outlook"...

[Indonesia Conference | SMM: Changes and Outlook of Global Coal Trade Flows] At the 2025 Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Metals Conference - Coal Session, Dong Huanhuan, Senior Consultant of SMM, shared insights on "Changes and Outlook of Global Coal Trade Flows". She pointed out that after reaching a record high in 2024, global coal production is expected to decline. In the future, coal demand will still be concentrated in Asian countries. The improvement of railway transport capacity will drive the future transportation and supply of Mongolian coal to countries such as China and India.