The gold price has undergone a sharp correction since its January high, unsettling many investors. The price decline of more than $1,000 per ounce appears at first glance to represent a break in the previous uptrend. However, according to analysts at WisdomTree, this movement reflects less a fundamental change in the macroeconomic situation than a combination of position adjustments, liquidity needs, and short-term market pressure.

The current spot rhenium metal market in China is characterized by divergence between upstream and downstream segments of the industry chain, two-way bargaining in supply and demand, and high-level price consolidation. Overall market performance is jointly influenced by multiple factors, including macro investment sentiment, the pace of stockpiling across the industry chain, overseas supply chain risks, and China’s supply and demand fundamentals. I. Upstream: Stable Price Range, Faster Producer Shipments In China’s upstream rhenium metal market, mainstream producers maintained stable raw material quotations, with the core price range controlled at around 28,000. Only a few producers raised raw material quotations to around 30,000. The overall price structure remained clearly tiered, with no wild swings. From the circulation side of the market, upstream producers recently showed stronger willingness to sell, and shipment frequency increased significantly. II. Midstream: Concentrated Scheduled Production, Low Acceptance of High-Priced Ammonium Perrhenate Midstream smelters and rhenium processing enterprises are currently in scheduled production, with pre-holiday order deliveries relatively concentrated. Most producers are scheduled to complete deliveries in March and April. From the cost side and purchasing sentiment, midstream processing enterprises generally showed low acceptance of high-priced ammonium perrhenate. The procurement side is more inclined toward rational bargaining and resists rushing to buy amid continuous price rise at high levels. This sentiment directly constrained the upside room for ammonium perrhenate prices. III. Downstream: Cooling Investment Sentiment, Steadily Recovering Industrial Demand Downstream demand showed clear structural divergence, with investment demand and industrial demand moving in opposite directions, becoming the core factor affecting short-term market sentiment. On the one hand, previously active investment demand gradually cooled, market investment sentiment weakened, and retail investors showed panic-driven exit sentiment. Low-price sell-offs began to appear in the market one after another, and some holders chose to sell below market prices in order to recover funds quickly, which to some extent impacted short-term transaction prices in the spot market. On the other hand, industrial demand showed a healthy trend of steady return and continued growth. As the core support for rigid demand in the rhenium metal market, the recovery in industrial demand provided a solid fundamental floor for the market and offset part of the bearish impact brought by investment-driven selling. IV. Outlook Considering the macro market environment and the supply and demand fundamentals of the industry chain, the core logic of the current rhenium market in China is clear: bullish and bearish factors are intertwined and in competition, jointly keeping prices in a high-level consolidation range. The specific influencing factors and market outlook are as follows: In the short term, affected by the international macro situation, investment enthusiasm in the energy sector remained elevated and diverted market funds, while overall investment sentiment in the nonferrous metals sector pulled back significantly. This sentiment gradually transmitted to the niche rare metal rhenium market, suppressing investment-side enthusiasm. In addition, around the Chinese New Year, upstream and downstream producers across the industry chain had already completed phased restocking, leaving market inventory in a relatively ample state. Raw material prices therefore lacked the momentum for a sharp increase, and short-term upside room for prices is limited. In the long term, competition in the international critical minerals sector intensified, and critical minerals consultations between the US and Chile continued to advance. The trend toward exclusive cooperation in global critical minerals supply chains became increasingly evident, directly leading to reduced stability in import channels for ammonium perrhenate from outside China, while external supply risks continued to rise; the supply of ammonium perrhenate showed a tightening trend, providing support for prices.

On June 12, at the 2025 SMM (13th) Minor Metal Industry Conference - Main Forum, hosted by Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. and SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), Han Xiao, General Manager of Zhishui Investment Co., Ltd., shared insights on the theme of "Review of Gold and Silver Market in 2025 and Future Outlook"...

[Indonesia Conference | SMM: Changes and Outlook of Global Coal Trade Flows] At the 2025 Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Metals Conference - Coal Session, Dong Huanhuan, Senior Consultant of SMM, shared insights on "Changes and Outlook of Global Coal Trade Flows". She pointed out that after reaching a record high in 2024, global coal production is expected to decline. In the future, coal demand will still be concentrated in Asian countries. The improvement of railway transport capacity will drive the future transportation and supply of Mongolian coal to countries such as China and India.

As a top-tier enterprise in multiple segments of the PV industry, Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) has its performance under scrutiny. However, regarding the recent market rumors about the polysilicon industry planning mergers and acquisitions, the company's management did not respond during today's earnings conference. Nonetheless, Board Secretary Yan Ke also noted that such market speculations reflect the high level of attention given to the current issues faced by the PV industry, with industry participants actively contemplating and discussing various solutions and ideas. In response to investor questions, he stated that no industry can sustain itself for long when prices are consistently below the cost levels of all participants. He believes that with the efforts of all parties, the industry will soon emerge from its temporary difficulties. At the bottom of the PV cycle, investors are particularly concerned about measures to address financial risks. By the end of Q1 2025, Tongwei's asset-liability ratio exceeded 70%. The company's management explained at the meeting that the main influencing factors include both the passive reasons of the company's performance being under pressure due to the industry's short-term operational pressures, and the proactive reason of significantly increasing cash to navigate the cycle steadily and further enhance business competitiveness. Moreover, the company's asset-liability ratio is also affected by structured financial instruments such as bill pool operations and convertible bond holdings. If these factors are excluded, the company's asset-liability ratio remains within a safe threshold and currently does not impact the company's finances or operations. According to the company, it currently holds approximately 40 billion yuan in cash and trading financial assets, which can be flexibly utilized to effectively meet the company's capital turnover needs, with sufficient preparation for debt repayment. The company's management further stated that, given the current cyclical low in the PV industry, the company will prudently evaluate projects that have not yet commenced construction, control the pace of construction, strictly manage capital expenditures, and effectively manage financial risks to ensure liquidity security. Regarding the H2 market outlook, Tongwei's Deputy Chairman Yan Hu believes that ground-mounted power stations will become a significant addition to domestic PV installations. In response to investor questions, he mentioned that although the end of the full-grid-connection era for distributed PV may temporarily impact domestic distributed demand, and there is uncertainty in European and US markets due to trade barriers, the acceleration of large-scale base construction in China's desert, Gobi, and barren areas will provide an effective foundation for new domestic demand this year. Additionally, emerging markets in the Middle East and Latin America have become new growth poles overseas, driving continuous growth in overseas demand. For the whole year, global PV installation demand is expected to maintain steady growth. When discussing the current state of the PV industry, Yan Hu believes that after years of ultra-high-speed development, the PV industry is currently facing a temporary supply-demand imbalance. Specifically, on the demand side, the growth rate of PV terminal installations remains high. Global new PV installations reached approximately 530 GW in 2024, up 35.9% YoY. From January to March 2025, China's new PV installations approached 60 GW, up 30.5% YoY. However, on the supply side, driven by years of high growth, the industry is currently experiencing significant temporary and structural capacity surpluses. Prices across the industry chain have plummeted and remained consistently below industry costs. Rationally speaking, no industry can sustain itself in the long term when prices consistently fall below costs. The PV industry will inevitably enter a phase of capacity exit the market, during which outdated capacity will be gradually phased out, while superior capacity will weather the cycle, and supply and demand will once again reach equilibrium.

Since the beginning of this year, SHFE zinc prices have gradually declined. Before the Chinese New Year, downstream companies completed restocking and took an early holiday, leading to a gradual weakening of market demand. The tight supply of zinc ore was alleviated, putting downward pressure on zinc prices. After the Chinese New Year, US tariff policies disrupted the market, with fundamentals tightening initially before shifting to a more relaxed state, resulting in a fluctuating trend in zinc prices. In early April, the US tariff policies far exceeded market expectations, exacerbating the risk of stagflation in the US. Affected by this, the fundamentals of zinc weakened, and zinc prices plummeted significantly. At the beginning of this year, driven by expectations of a slowdown in the US Fed's interest rate cuts and a decline in market demand, the price trend of LME zinc was relatively weak. Subsequently, the repeated fluctuations in US tariff policies and the increasing expectations of a US economic recession led to downward pressure on the US dollar index, and LME zinc prices entered a phase of fluctuating upward. After entering April, the US "reciprocal tariff" policy exceeded expectations, pushing up the risk of stagflation and causing LME zinc prices to fall sharply to a low point in nearly a year. During the Labour Day holiday, fluctuations in US employment data were limited, and the manufacturing index continued to remain in contraction territory, with LME zinc prices maintaining a stable trend. From a medium and long-term perspective, the main influencing factors at the macro perspective are still related to US tariff policies and the US Fed's interest rate cut path. Regarding US tariffs, considering the attitudes of various countries and negotiation factors, there may still be some adjustments to the US tariff policy in the future. As for the US Fed's interest rate cut path, Powell has repeatedly emphasized at press conferences the impact of economic uncertainties on the dot plot projections. Therefore, there is a possibility of a slowdown in the US Fed's interest rate cut path. From the perspective of overseas mines, driven by Endeavor mine's planned commissioning in the near future, capacity ramp-up at Tara and Kipushi mines, and increased production at Antamina mine, it is expected that overseas mines will show an increasing production trend in the medium term. Domestically, in Q1, domestic mines reduced production by 10.04% due to seasonal factors. As the weather warms up, production at northern mines has seasonally recovered, while mines such as Huoshaoyun and Yinzhushan have stabilized their production, indicating significant room for growth in domestic zinc concentrate production. With the release of overseas mine capacities, port inventories of zinc concentrates are expected to remain at a relatively high level of over 300,000 mt within the year. As of the end of March, raw material inventories of smelters increased by 51.37% YoY, verifying the expectation of a loose raw material supply. It is expected that with the gradual release of incremental supplies from domestic and overseas mines, the loose raw material situation will continue. In this context, the increased supply of ore will further drive up the zinc concentrate TCs. In the refined zinc sector, there is a game between mines and smelters over processing fees. Affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, the transmission of incremental ore supply to the smelting side has been relatively limited.Additionally, the import window only opened briefly at the beginning of the year. In Q1, zinc ingot imports fell by 24.65% QoQ. Overall, in the medium term, zinc concentrate TCs are expected to continue rising, which will further boost smelting profits. Against this backdrop, smelters' willingness to increase production has strengthened, and there is still a possibility for the zinc ingot import window to reopen. It is anticipated that zinc ingot supply will experience significant growth. From the beginning of the year to date, the infrastructure sector has performed relatively weakly. The operating rates of the cement milling industry, asphalt plant industry, and aluminum wire and cable industry have all fallen short of expectations. The real estate market continues to face pressure, with cumulative YoY declines in new construction starts and completed areas persisting. Additionally, auto sales data has exceeded market expectations. In the galvanizing and die-casting sectors, after the Chinese New Year, galvanizing and die-casting zinc alloy enterprises have focused on inventory destocking, with slow progress in production resumptions. The operating rates of these enterprises have been at relatively low levels compared to the same period in recent years. However, driven by the rush-to-export effect triggered by uncertainties in trade policies, galvanized sheet exports have increased significantly, further expanding their share in total demand. Looking ahead, the power infrastructure and automotive industries remain the main growth points for end-use demand. However, their combined zinc consumption accounts for only about 20% of total zinc consumption, limiting their boosting effect on zinc demand. Furthermore, although the US's extension of the "reciprocal tariff" has preserved a channel for the re-export of galvanized products, Vietnam's anti-dumping review, which imposes a 37.13% temporary tariff on some Chinese galvanized sheet exports, may hinder the export of relevant domestic products. Overall, the support for zinc prices from the demand side is weak. From a macro front, as the US continues to advance its "reciprocal tariff" policy, market concerns about a US economic recession have intensified, which will exert downward pressure on zinc prices. From a fundamental perspective, zinc concentrate TCs have rebounded to a high level, improving smelters' profit margins and significantly enhancing their enthusiasm for production resumptions. It is expected that zinc ingot supply will experience significant growth. On the demand side, the boosting effect of the domestic market on zinc prices remains to be seen, while the export sector, constrained by trade policies, is unlikely to provide effective support. Therefore, the support for zinc prices from the demand side is relatively weak. In summary, the fundamentals of the zinc market will gradually shift towards a looser pattern. Influenced by bearish macro factors, it is expected that the zinc price range will gradually trend downward in the medium term. (Author's affiliation: Guoyuan Futures)