Record industrial demand, supply deficits, and new U.S. policy changes now place silver at the center of modern manufacturing.

On May 25, international oil prices dropped sharply while precious metals rose sharply. Spot gold broke through $4,570/oz, up more than 1% intraday. Spot silver touched $78/oz, up more than 4%. Since 2026, the silver market has experienced a "roller coaster" trend: after surging to historic highs at the beginning of the year, it pulled back significantly and has since stayed high with wild swings. As the largest industrial demand sector for silver, PV has seen rising penetration rates of high-efficiency cells (TOPCon/HJT/BC) drive up per-unit silver consumption, and the surge in silver prices has become a core cost pressure for PV modules.

India-based aluminum powder and paste producer MMP Industries reported strong FY26 Q4 results, with revenue, operating profit and net earnings rising both sequentially and year-on-year. Quarterly revenue reached about INR 2.5 billion, up nearly 12% YoY and 23% QoQ, while net profit surged 64% to INR 180 million. Operating margin improved from 8% to 9% due to better cost control and operational efficiency. The company said growth was supported by demand from infrastructure, industrial manufacturing and renewable energy sectors. MMP Industries also announced its first-ever final dividend of INR 2 per share, representing a 20% payout ratio.

Published: May 19, 2026 - 10:43 PM Updated: May 19, 2026 - 10:55 PM (Kitco News) – Despite Iran war headwinds, gold prices are still on track to reach a fresh all-time high of $5,800 per ounce before year-end, while silver’s supply deficit and dual demand make it the better medium-term bet, according to Nicky Shiels, head of research and metals strategy at MKS PAMP, Shiels said in a recent interview that the Iran war has “reshaped, but not derailed” the bull case for gold, and she expects the yellow metal will ultimately gain 30% in 2026. “Gold is still expected to average $4,500/oz in 2026, with a new higher all-time high of $5,800/oz a fair target for the second half of the year,” she said. “Gold has morphed from a debasement trade into an inverse oil proxy during the current conflict, and while that correlation has weakened recently, the stagflationary backdrop comes back into play,” Shiels added. “The near-term thesis is one of consolidation, but the longer-term one reinforces the bull case for gold: fiscal dominance fears, US dollar weakness longer-term, and geopolitical risk remain in play.” In the near term, she said that “gold prices below $5000/oz are fair given current oil levels and softening physical demand into the summer, but $5000+ should be the range in 2H’26.” Looking further out, Shiels is even more bullish. She said that it is “unlikely, but possible” that gold prices will reach $10,000 per ounce by 2030. “It’s theoretically possible, as real assets continue to debase higher,” she said. “A lot would have to happen for gold prices to reach five figures, including a substantial rotation from US institutional investors out of equities.” “There are plenty of narratives explaining how one obtains big numbers, where most look at Gold through a debasement lens and adjust for what prices need to be (keeping all other inputs stable) to reach historical relative values vs the stock market, vs % of US debt, as vs % of foreign-held portion of US debt,” Shiels explained. “For example, gold’s global market cap (value of above-ground stocks) is around 20 per cent of the value of the global stock market. Historically, it can be worth 40 per cent, simply implying Gold at $10,000/oz (with no drawdown in stock market value).” She also benchmarked gold’s potential against U.S. government debt to arrive at an even more dramatic price projection. “Today’s US Gold holdings backs only 3 per cent of US government debt; back in the previous wartime era (the last debt expansion era), WWII, in which ~50 per cent of federal debt was Gold-backed; a mere 10 per cent of the US’ debt pile today equates to $15,000/oz,” Shiels said. “The value of the US’ Gold (81100 tonnes) is 14 per cent of all foreign-held US debt; the long-term average has been 50 per cent, which implies ~$18,000/oz.” She added that the scenario “remains a tail, not the base case, but it’s not an unreasonable tail.” Turning to silver, Shiels said that while gold still has the better outlook for 2026, the gray metal could outperform it in the longer term on the back of ongoing structural supply deficits. “The January high above $120/oz can absolutely be revisited, but it’s contingent on gold making new all-time highs,” she said. “Silver is still nowhere near its inflation-adjusted highs of around $200/oz (when Gold took out its 1980 inflation-adjusted high of $3600/oz back in September 2025), which requires a lot to come together (retail, institutional investment, industrial & physical flows re-engaging simultaneously).” Shiels said the Iran war has generated significant headwinds for silver, with the oil shock creating a “stagflationary backdrop” and raising fears of industrial demand destruction. “Silver, as the ‘high-beta’ precious metal, is caught between its monetary/investment and industrial identities,” she said. “Investment demand has softened while industrial demand faces macro pressure and fears over a growth slowdown.” “The core bear case [revolves around] a recession or prolonged stagflationary environment that would hit industrial demand (which accounts for over half of silver consumption) hard, particularly if the green energy buildout slows,” she explained. “That risk can overwhelm investment inflows and keep silver trapped in the lower half of its range, $50 – $70/oz.” But despite these risks to the outlook, Shiels believes silver is the precious metal with the higher upside over the longer term. “Gold has stronger institutional underpinning, resilient CB demand, clearer macro catalysts with a ramp up of stagflationary risks, and less vulnerability to an industrial demand shock,” she noted. “But silver is nowhere near its inflation-adjusted highs of around $200/oz; it faces persistent structural supply deficits where supply is slow to respond, and once both retail and institutional investment flows re-engage simultaneously, the squeeze potential is significant.” “Long-term, silver’s leverage to the hard-asset bull market is its biggest asset.” Moving to the platinum group metals, Shiels said the macro backdrop is weighing heavily on both platinum and palladium, but platinum is better positioned to launch a breakout due to ongoing supply deficits and strong hybrid vehicle demand. “January’s move in both metals reflected a genuine confluence of factors — physical tightness, tariff-driven trade re-ratings, supply disruption (particularly Russian palladium redirected away from the US), and strategic stockpiling — it wasn’t pure speculation,” she said. “However, the macro backdrop since then (oil shock, demand destruction fears, auto sector uncertainty) has weighed heavily.” “Platinum has stronger structural support — persistent multi-year deficits, growing hybrid autocatalyst demand, resilient industrial demand, steady jewellery demand, and a new investor base with the launch of futures contracts in China — so it’s better positioned to break out of the range,” she added. “Palladium is more policy-driven and heavily dependent on auto demand.” Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-19/gold-will-hit-5800-ath-december-silver-has-highest-upside-platinum-has

[Price Review] Silver fell sharply at the beginning of this week, mainly due to repeated Middle East geopolitical tensions with slow progress in US-Iran negotiations, critically low global crude oil inventories driving oil prices higher, combined with rising interest rate hike expectations and rising US Treasury yields, which continued to weigh on precious metals valuations. On Wednesday evening, as US-Iran tensions eased somewhat, oil prices declined while medium- and long-term US Treasury yields both pulled back, and precious metals futures rebounded slightly. On the macro front, new Fed Chairman Waller delivered his first public speech maintaining a hawkish stance. Combined with US April non-farm payrolls and CPI both exceeding expectations, interest rate hike expectations continued to rise, with expectations for rate cuts within the year nearly zeroed out. CME Fed Watch showed a 97.3% probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged in June and a 2.7% probability of a rate cut; a 72.7% probability of rates remaining unchanged from current levels in September, a 2% probability of a rate cut, and a 25.4% probability of a rate hike. Industrial demand side, at the beginning of the week, downstream consumption recovered slightly as silver prices declined, but demand quickly faded as prices rebounded. Some suppliers also showed weak willingness to offer due to continuously widening transaction discounts, with the price spread between high and low offers widening. The silver spot market remained generally low in activity, and inventory continued to increase slightly. Gold/silver ratio, as of May 20, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rebounded to 59x, widening notably WoW. [Key Data] Bearish New Fed Chairman Waller delivered his first speech on May 15 with an extremely hawkish tone, explicitly stating there was no reason for rate cuts in the near term and not ruling out the possibility of resuming rate hikes. April CPI came in at 3.8% YoY (the highest since May 2023), core CPI at 2.8% (the highest since September 2025), and PPI at 6.0% YoY (the largest single-month increase in over four years), with inflation stickiness exceeding market expectations. The US dollar index rebounded above 105, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 4.5%, and the 30-year US Treasury yield reached above 5%, significantly raising the opportunity cost of holding precious metals. India raised silver import tariffs from 6% to 15% while tightening import quotas, causing demand from the world's largest physical buyer to drop sharply. Bullish: Peru's energy crisis continued, with a national state of emergency extending through year-end. Twelve large mines have implemented staggered production, and May silver production is expected to decline by 5%-8%, with the global supply-demand gap persisting. US-Iran negotiations saw new positive progress, with both sides engaging in indirect contact through Qatar and reaching preliminary consensus on some core disagreements. [Upcoming Focus] May 22: Waller's inauguration speech; Eurozone and UK May manufacturing PMI preliminary readings May 23: US May Markit manufacturing and services PMI preliminary readings May 27: US 2026 Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate revised value May 28: US April core PCE price index, weekly initial jobless claims Key focus: Waller's official inauguration speech as Fed Chairman, US-Iran negotiation progress [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to remain under pressure with adjustments next week, with core variables being Waller's inauguration speech and US-Iran negotiation progress. The market is closely watching Warsh's debut and four key focus areas: the US Fed's stance on independence, inflation framework reform, interest rate path, and balance sheet reduction pace. Combined with Warsh's previous policy positions, if he insists on prioritizing anti-inflation efforts and releases expectations of retaining the rate hike option, precious metals are expected to face sustained suppression in the short term. On the China fundamentals side, downstream buying sentiment is generally cautious. The decline in silver's absolute price has not significantly boosted downstream demand, and wait-and-see sentiment remains strong. Social inventory of spot silver ingots has increased slightly, and the market expects spot mainstream transaction discounts to widen slightly to the SGE TD discount range of 50-20 yuan/kg.

Published at:13th May 2026, 1:44 pm Overview India doubled platinum import duties to 15.4%, escalating costs for vehicles reliant on catalytic converters, particularly diesel SUVs and strong hybrids. This move, aimed at forex conservation, is expected to increase car prices and may accelerate the shift toward battery electric vehicles as automakers seek to mitigate rising input expenses. Duty Hike Increases Vehicle Costs India's decision to more than double its import duty on platinum, from 6.4% to 15.4%, is set to significantly increase costs for the domestic auto industry. This policy, aimed at conserving foreign exchange reserves amid geopolitical instability in West Asia, directly impacts the supply chain for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, particularly their emission control systems. The move is expected to raise production costs, hitting vehicle segments that use more platinum in their catalytic converters the hardest, such as diesel sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and strong hybrid models. Market Reaction and Stock Divergence Investor reaction was mixed. Some component suppliers saw their shares decline, with Sharda Motor Industries dropping 2.1% to INR 950. In contrast, larger automakers like Tata Motors and Maruti Suzuki saw modest gains, rising 1.2% to INR 1250 and 1.5% to INR 13000. Analysts noted that companies like Maruti Suzuki (P/E 35, market cap ~$35 billion) are better positioned to pass on input costs than smaller suppliers. Tata Motors (market cap ~$20 billion, P/E 28) faces higher direct costs due to its significant diesel SUV range, while Mahindra & Mahindra (market cap ~$25 billion, P/E 32) is also exposed through its diesel-heavy offerings. Estimating Price Hikes and Emission Compliance Costs The increased duty increases the cost of meeting BS-VI emission standards. Industry estimates suggest potential price increases ranging from ₹2,500–₹4,000 for entry-level petrol cars, ₹8,000–₹12,000 for mid-size diesel SUVs, and ₹12,000–₹18,000 for strong hybrids. These figures reflect higher platinum-group metal loading, from 2-4 grams in petrol cars to 6-10 grams in diesel SUVs and 10-15 grams in hybrids. Component manufacturers such as Bosch India (P/E 45, market cap ~$12 billion) and Tenneco (P/E 15, market cap ~$3 billion) will likely face contract renegotiations, as most agreements include commodity pass-through clauses. Past duty adjustments in 2023 led to 3-5% price hikes for affected vehicles and temporary stock declines for OEMs, a pattern that could repeat if automakers cannot fully pass on costs. The Indian auto sector, which reported 8-10% year-over-year volume growth in Q1 2026, now faces added margin pressure on top of existing commodity and currency challenges. Global platinum prices have recently traded between $950-$1050 per ounce, influenced by industrial demand and global events. Risks for Automakers and EV Competition The higher import duty poses a significant risk for automakers and component suppliers heavily reliant on platinum-based catalytic converters. Companies with large portfolios of diesel SUVs and strong hybrids, including Ashok Leyland (P/E 22, market cap ~$7 billion) and Toyota Kirloskar Motor (a subsidiary of Toyota Motor Corp), face direct cost increases. This duty burden worsens their competitive position against battery electric vehicle (BEV) makers. While Tata Motors is investing in its EV division, its existing ICE operations are now less cost-competitive. Component suppliers like Sharda Motor Industries (P/E 19, market cap ~$1.5 billion) may struggle to absorb rising costs without affecting order volumes as OEMs seek to keep consumer prices stable. Previous supply chain issues have also highlighted the risks of relying on specific imported materials. Recent analysis of Q4 FY26 filings from most Indian OEMs showed strong demand but also noted existing supply chain cost pressures, suggesting limited room for absorbing further increases without impacting profitability or market share. Mitigating Costs and Shifting to EVs Automakers are exploring ways to manage these rising costs. Strategies include accelerating R&D to reduce platinum loading in catalytic converters and expanding precious metal recycling. The government's concessional duty of 4.35% on imported spent catalysts for recovery offers a pathway for recycling the metal. Analysts believe this could slightly improve the cost competitiveness of BEVs, which do not use catalytic converters. Platinum's growing importance in emerging technologies like hydrogen fuel cells and electrolysers may also lead to strategic reviews of its domestic availability and pricing. Source： https://www.whalesbook.com/news/English/auto/Indias-Platinum-Duty-Hike-Squeezes-ICE-Vehicle-Costs