[Price Review] At the beginning of the week, silver prices fluctuated upward amid Trump-related remarks and the possibility of easing conflict. However, on Thursday (April 2), after Trump delivered a speech claiming a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in the war against Iran, precious metal prices plunged sharply. The chaotic signals and uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran negotiation situation themselves became a "bearish factor" for precious metal prices. In the short term, heated fund flows and weakening investment demand caused gold and silver to shift from "safe-haven inflation-resistant assets" into "liquidity tools," and the bearish sentiment in precious metals continued. As for the gold/silver ratio, as of April 1, the LBMA gold/silver ratio stood at 63, and is expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend in the short term. [Key Data] Bullish: The final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March in the US was 53.3, below both expectations and the previous reading Bearish: US ADP employment in March was 62,000, below both expectations and the previous reading US retail sales m/m in February rose 0.6, above both expectations and the previous reading The reported US ISM manufacturing PMI for March was 52.7, above the previous reading but below expectations Data and macro releases to watch next week include: April 3 (Friday): The US is set to release seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate for March. The market generally expects March payroll additions to rebound to 55,000. Bloomberg forecasts that, driven by a rebound in jobs after the end of the strike, nonfarm payrolls in March will increase by 80,000, while the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.4. April 9 (Wednesday): US February PCE Price Index April 10 (Thursday): US March CPI data On the Middle East conflict timeline, US President Trump postponed the airstrike on Iranian energy facilities to 20:00 ET on April 6. Trump said the US would "soon" withdraw from the conflict with Iran, but if the situation changes after the withdrawal, it may still re-engage. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, on April 1, Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, posted a message addressing US President Trump, saying that the Strait of Hormuz would definitely reopen, but not to the US. [Price Forecast] In the short term, the direction of the US-Iran conflict and cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts are the main factors affecting silver prices. The lasting impact of persistently high oil prices has kept precious metal prices under pressure. On industrial demand, after the Middle East conflict pushed up energy costs, expectations for global manufacturing activity may be reassessed, and silver has been hit by the dual blow of "safe-haven failure + collapsing demand narrative." On China fundamentals side, end-user enterprises showed weak willingness to stock up raw materials in April. On the one hand, declining PV end-user production schedules led to weaker expectations for new silver nitrate orders. On the other hand, other end-users showed strong caution and reluctance to buy on falling prices, aggressively bargaining down premiums for procurement. As the SHFE April delivery approaches, suppliers generally said that amid difficult spot silver ingot transactions, they may mainly monetize through delivery. Social inventory of silver ingots may see a slight accumulation, and premiums are still expected to have room to pull back further. Next week, the basic situation of silver prices remaining in the doldrums is expected to be difficult to improve, but close attention should be paid to disruptions to market sentiment from changes in geopolitical conflict and adjustments in fund flows.

From the perspective of Sprott’s experts, gold remains a central strategic building block for investors, even if the precious metal suffers in the short term from the rise in US Treasury yields.

The current development of the gold price continues to cause frustration for many investors. Despite the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East and the war involving the USA and Israel against Iran, gold has so far failed to gain lasting new momentum from these events.

Silver has seen one of the sharpest pullbacks in recent years within just a few weeks. From the high of US$97.30 on March 2, the price fell to US$61.21 by March 23, losing around 37%. For the market, this was an abrupt break from the previous momentum.

The current domestic rhenium spot market in China is characterized by differentiation across the industrial chain, two-way supply-demand game, and high-level consolidation. Overall market conditions are jointly driven by multiple factors, including macro investment sentiment, inventory restocking cycles, overseas supply chain risks, and domestic fundamental supply and demand. I. Upstream: Stable Price Range, Accelerated Shipments Major domestic upstream rhenium producers maintain stable raw material quotations, with the mainstream price range around 28,000. Only a small number of suppliers offer prices as high as around 30,000, forming a clear tiered price structure without major fluctuations. Recently, upstream producers have shown stronger willingness to sell, with a notable increase in shipment frequency. II. Midstream: Scheduled Production, Low Acceptance of High-Priced Ammonium Perrhenate Midstream refineries and rhenium processors are currently operating under scheduled production. Order deliveries are concentrated, with most manufacturers scheduled to fulfill orders in March and April.In terms of cost control and purchasing sentiment, midstream processors generally show low acceptance of high-priced ammonium perrhenate. Buyers tend to negotiate rationally and resist chasing high prices, which directly caps the upward room for ammonium perrhenate prices. III. Downstream: Cooling Investment Sentiment, Steady Recovery in Industrial Demand Downstream demand exhibits significant structural divergence between investment demand and industrial demand, which has become the key factor affecting short-term market sentiment. On the one hand, previously active investment demand has cooled, accompanied by panic selling among retail investors. Increasing low-price sell-offs have emerged in the market as holders offload at discounted prices to accelerate capital turnover, weighing on short-term spot transaction prices. On the other hand, industrial demand has steadily recovered and maintained growth. As the core rigid support for rhenium, the recovery of industrial demand provides a solid fundamental floor, offsetting part of the negative impact from investment-driven sell-offs. IV. Market Outlook Based on the macro environment and industrial supply-demand fundamentals, the domestic rhenium market is in a balanced game between bullish and bearish factors, keeping prices in high-level consolidation. Short-term Outlook Affected by the international macro environment, investment enthusiasm in the energy sector remains high, diverting capital away from non-ferrous metals. The overall weakening investment sentiment in the non-ferrous sector has spilled over to the niche strategic metal rhenium, suppressing investment demand.In addition, most market participants completed phased restocking around the Spring Festival, leaving inventories at relatively sufficient levels. As a result, raw material prices lack upward momentum, with limited room for significant gains in the short term. Long-term Outlook Geopolitical competition over critical minerals is intensifying. Progress in critical minerals negotiations between the U.S. and Chile, along with rising exclusive cooperation in global critical minerals supply chains, has reduced the stability of overseas ammonium perrhenate import channels and raised external supply risks.The expected tightening in ammonium perrhenate supply will provide strong support to market prices.

The current spot rhenium metal market in China is characterized by divergence between upstream and downstream segments of the industry chain, two-way bargaining in supply and demand, and high-level price consolidation. Overall market performance is jointly influenced by multiple factors, including macro investment sentiment, the pace of stockpiling across the industry chain, overseas supply chain risks, and China’s supply and demand fundamentals. I. Upstream: Stable Price Range, Faster Producer Shipments In China’s upstream rhenium metal market, mainstream producers maintained stable raw material quotations, with the core price range controlled at around 28,000. Only a few producers raised raw material quotations to around 30,000. The overall price structure remained clearly tiered, with no wild swings. From the circulation side of the market, upstream producers recently showed stronger willingness to sell, and shipment frequency increased significantly. II. Midstream: Concentrated Scheduled Production, Low Acceptance of High-Priced Ammonium Perrhenate Midstream smelters and rhenium processing enterprises are currently in scheduled production, with pre-holiday order deliveries relatively concentrated. Most producers are scheduled to complete deliveries in March and April. From the cost side and purchasing sentiment, midstream processing enterprises generally showed low acceptance of high-priced ammonium perrhenate. The procurement side is more inclined toward rational bargaining and resists rushing to buy amid continuous price rise at high levels. This sentiment directly constrained the upside room for ammonium perrhenate prices. III. Downstream: Cooling Investment Sentiment, Steadily Recovering Industrial Demand Downstream demand showed clear structural divergence, with investment demand and industrial demand moving in opposite directions, becoming the core factor affecting short-term market sentiment. On the one hand, previously active investment demand gradually cooled, market investment sentiment weakened, and retail investors showed panic-driven exit sentiment. Low-price sell-offs began to appear in the market one after another, and some holders chose to sell below market prices in order to recover funds quickly, which to some extent impacted short-term transaction prices in the spot market. On the other hand, industrial demand showed a healthy trend of steady return and continued growth. As the core support for rigid demand in the rhenium metal market, the recovery in industrial demand provided a solid fundamental floor for the market and offset part of the bearish impact brought by investment-driven selling. IV. Outlook Considering the macro market environment and the supply and demand fundamentals of the industry chain, the core logic of the current rhenium market in China is clear: bullish and bearish factors are intertwined and in competition, jointly keeping prices in a high-level consolidation range. The specific influencing factors and market outlook are as follows: In the short term, affected by the international macro situation, investment enthusiasm in the energy sector remained elevated and diverted market funds, while overall investment sentiment in the nonferrous metals sector pulled back significantly. This sentiment gradually transmitted to the niche rare metal rhenium market, suppressing investment-side enthusiasm. In addition, around the Chinese New Year, upstream and downstream producers across the industry chain had already completed phased restocking, leaving market inventory in a relatively ample state. Raw material prices therefore lacked the momentum for a sharp increase, and short-term upside room for prices is limited. In the long term, competition in the international critical minerals sector intensified, and critical minerals consultations between the US and Chile continued to advance. The trend toward exclusive cooperation in global critical minerals supply chains became increasingly evident, directly leading to reduced stability in import channels for ammonium perrhenate from outside China, while external supply risks continued to rise; the supply of ammonium perrhenate showed a tightening trend, providing support for prices.