[7.16 Morning Meeting Minutes] US June CPI rose 3.5% YoY, compared to the expected 3.8% increase and the previous 4.2% rise. US June CPI fell 0.4% MoM, versus the expected 0.1% decline and the previous 0.5% increase. After the release of US June CPI data, traders pushed back their expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes to October. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract drifted lower in morning trading, closing down 0.43% at 128,870 yuan/mt at the end of the morning session. US inflation cooled significantly in June, with the unadjusted core CPI rising 2.6% YoY, below the expected 2.8% and the previous 2.9%. The cooling inflation further pushed back market expectations for US Fed rate hikes, and the US dollar extended its decline. In the short term, nickel prices may see a rebound, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract price range between 127,000-133,000 yuan/mt.

As of June 30, LME nickel Open Tonnage stood at 265,044 mt, up 2,448 mt from May 29, or up 0.9% MoM, showing a mild inventory buildup overall. From the perspective of origin structure, Chinese-origin nickel inventory increased by 738 mt to 186,384 mt, and Indonesian-origin nickel increased by 894 mt to 19,338 mt, which were the main sources of the inventory increase this month; Finnish- and South African-origin nickel each increased by 354 mt. Chinese-origin nickel still accounted for approximately 70.3% of LME nickel inventory, indicating a high concentration of origin.

As of June 30, LME nickel Open Tonnage stood at 265,044 mt, up 2,448 mt from May 29, or up 0.9% MoM, showing a mild inventory buildup overall. From the perspective of origin structure, Chinese-origin nickel inventory increased by 738 mt to 186,384 mt, and Indonesian-origin nickel increased by 894 mt to 19,338 mt, which were the main sources of the inventory increase this month; Finnish- and South African-origin nickel each increased by 354 mt. Chinese-origin nickel still accounted for approximately 70.3% of LME nickel inventory, indicating a high concentration of origin.

Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has officially released the benchmark mineral price (HMA) for the second half of July 2026. The HMA for this period is as follows: nickel price at US$16,533.67/tonne (down from US$17,593.33/tonne in the first half of July 2026), representing a decrease of US$1,059.66/tonne, or 6.02%. Meanwhile, the benchmark prices for other minerals are: cobalt at US$55,863.00/tonne, iron ore at US$1.44/tonne, and chromite ore at US$6.37/tonne. According to SMM's internal calculation model, based on simulations for pyrometallurgical ore (20% Fe, 1% Cr, 0.05% Co) and hydrometallurgical ore (45% Fe, 2% Cr, 0.10% Co), the benchmark nickel ore prices (HPM) for different grades have changed as follows: - Ni 1.2%: US$45.25/wmt (down US$2.15) - Ni 1.3%: US$49.44/wmt (down US$2.42) - Ni 1.4%: US$53.60/wmt (down US$2.97) - Ni 1.5%: US$58.23/wmt (down US$3.27) - Ni 1.6%: US$63.06/wmt (down US$3.58)

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel is $14,923/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt is $50,169/mt Co. The MHP payables (against SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) are 82.5-84, and the MHP cobalt payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) is 94. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte is $15,213/mt Ni.

On July 15, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate edged down.