[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain in a tug-of-war. Supply side, some suppliers had already sold part of their imported cargoes during the day, such as Onsan, SR-P, and Polish large plates, while a large volume of imported copper is still set to arrive next week, and whether actual supply will increase significantly remains to be seen. If copper prices continue to fluctuate rangebound within the current range, the increase in supply will weigh on spot premiums. Demand side, next week will usher in a stockpiling window ahead of the Qingming Festival, and downstream enterprises may have demand to restock in advance. Spot transactions are expected to improve, which may provide temporary support to premiums. In addition, from the perspective of market structure, the price spread between high-quality copper and standard-quality copper has remained at a relatively narrow level, reflecting that current market trading is mainly driven by actual consumption demand, with brand premiums weakening and buyers paying more attention to price itself rather than brand differences. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2604 contract are expected to remain at the current level next Monday.

China’s silver prices fluctuated and consolidated this week. The price spread between the Gold Exchange TD price and the SHFE March contract kept narrowing, while a large volume of imported silver ingots entered the market to meet downstream demand, driving down spot premiums for physical silver ingots rapidly. Although many suppliers were reluctant to sell and mostly held firm on offers, downstream buyers actively negotiated for lower prices, and spot premiums in China had already fallen sharply by the end of the week. As of Thursday, in the Shanghai market, the tradable quote for domestic standard silver ingots against TD premiums had been lowered to 600-700 yuan/kg. A few suppliers held firm and were reluctant to sell at premiums of 700-800 yuan/kg against TD, but actual transactions were thin. In Shenzhen, imported large ingots were processed into small ingots before entering the market for trading. Some suppliers, concerned that spot premiums would continue to fall, sold at premiums of 400-500 yuan/kg against TD. Downstream buyers actively negotiated, but remained cautious and mostly stayed on the sidelines due to concerns over further declines in both absolute prices and spot premiums. Actual procurement transactions weakened, and some downstream purchasing demand was delayed until next week. Inventory side, silver social inventory across different regions rose and fell this week. Imported large ingots or silver ingots processed from imported crude silver raw materials entered social warehouses. As downstream demand remained strong, the increase in supply only led to a slight overall buildup in silver ingot social inventory this week.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Held Up Well, Spot Prices Remained Stable with Just-in-Time Procurement Dominating SMM News, March 12: SS futures showed a firm sideways movement. As geopolitical tensions in Iran continued to escalate and the US restarted the tariff war, macro news still had a notable disruptive effect on futures, and SS futures had yet to show a clear direction, closing at 14,245 yuan/mt by the midday break. In the spot market, affected by the sideways movement in futures, spot quotations continued to hold steady. Although the market has entered the traditional peak consumption season and downstream demand has recovered somewhat, expectations of high supply capped sentiment, limiting market acceptance of high-priced cargoes. Downstream players mainly made just-in-time procurement, while traders actively shipped goods for destocking. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated higher. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,290 yuan/mt, up 170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi stood at 230-430 yuan/mt. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi were generally stable; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, average prices in Wuxi and Foshan both held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi remained stable; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotations held steady; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were also stable. As the market entered the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April," the stainless steel market saw a window for demand recovery. The downstream side gradually resumed work and production after the Chinese New Year holiday, and demand showed a trend of gradual recovery. However, although transactions improved from the previous period, the market still did not show the briskness typical of the peak season, and end-user procurement was mainly...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Were in the Doldrums, While Spot Stainless Steel Held Steady with Just-in-Time Procurement Dominating SMM News on March 11: SS futures showed a weak fluctuating trend. Since March, they had continued to move sideways in the 14,000-14,400 range. Affected by the continued escalation of geopolitical conflicts, SS futures extended their fluctuating trend, closing at 14,210 yuan/mt by the midday session. In the spot market, driven by the sideways movement in futures, spot traders' quotations generally held steady. Downstream end-users mainly made just-in-time procurement, while the earlier bullish sentiment had been fully exhausted, leaving insufficient willingness for advance purchases and stockpiling. However, as the traditional peak season gradually approaches, fundamental demand can still be maintained, and market participants expect stainless steel prices to remain strongly supported by costs within the month. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated downward. As of 10:15 a.m., SS2604 was quoted at 14,105 yuan/mt, down 190 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi stood in the 400-600 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi all held steady; for cold-rolled burr-edge 304/2B coils, average prices in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi held steady; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotations held steady; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. As the market entered the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April," the stainless steel market ushered in a window for demand recovery. The downstream demand side successively resumed work and production after the Chinese New Year holiday, and demand showed a gradual recovery trend. However, although transactions improved from the previous period, the market had yet to show the brisk activity typical of the peak season, ...

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper spot discounts are expected to remain under pressure. Although the spot discounts showed some recovery today, the overall market is still constrained by the continuous increase in supply. In the early session, some suppliers were more willing to hold prices firm, with high-quality copper and some parity copper quotes relatively strong, but actual transactions were sluggish. However, in the second trading period, some suppliers began to offload their stocks, with brands like Tiefeng quoting a discount of 300 yuan/mt, pulling down the overall price of parity copper, indicating that supply pressure remains the dominant factor. From a market structure perspective, the high contango spread between futures contracts continues to encourage suppliers to ship to delivery warehouses, which will continue to divert spot liquidity. At the same time, imported and domestically produced copper continue to arrive, with OLYDA and other sources already seen during the day, continuously replenishing the supply side. On the demand side, although resumption of work is progressing, the overall pace of recovery remains slow, coupled with high copper prices, making it difficult to provide effective support for the discounts. Overall, the continuous increase in supply is suppressing demand recovery, and the oversupply situation in the spot market remains unchanged.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,654.5/mt. Early in the session, LME zinc prices continuously declined below the daily average line, then rapidly rose to a high of $2,662.5/mt during European trading hours. Subsequently, LME zinc prices quickly pulled back, fluctuating considerably along the daily average line during the night session. Towards the end of the session, LME zinc prices slightly declined, closing at $2,636.5/mt, down $23.5/mt or 0.88%. Trading volume decreased to 90,506 lots, while open interest fell by 394 lots to 211,000 lots...