Imported Bauxite Prices As of May 25, 2026, SMM overseas bauxite prices were generally stable with slight upward movement. Supported by rising energy and seaborne freight costs, prices of some imported bauxite cargoes edged up. However, domestic alumina refineries maintained relatively high raw material inventories, while downstream acceptance of high-priced resources remained limited. Market transactions were mainly driven by rigid demand. Among them, the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index (converted to 45/3 grade) stood at $67.61/mt, up $0.09/mt MoM, with the monthly price range at $67.52-67.85/mt. By product, Guinea bauxite FOB price (converted to 45/3 grade) stood at $38/mt, flat MoM, with prices remaining largely stable since the beginning of May. Guinea bauxite CIF price (converted to 45/3 grade) stood at $68/mt, up $0.05/mt MoM, with the monthly price range at $67-68/mt. Australia bauxite CIF price (49-50/6-7 grade) stood at $62/mt, while Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF price (51-52/8-10 grade) stood at $56.50/mt, both flat MoM. Türkiye bauxite CFR price (54/6 grade) stood at $78.50/mt, up $2.50/mt MoM, rising from $76/mt to $78.50/mt during the month. Malaysia bauxite CIF price (37-41/5-6 grade) stood at $52/mt, Malaysia washed bauxite CIF price (37-41/5-6 grade) stood at $62.50/mt, and Ghana bauxite CIF price (47-51/5-6 grade) stood at $78/mt, with prices remaining stable during the month. Bauxite Imports and Exports According to customs data, China imported 19.743 million mt of bauxite in April 2026, down 9.4% MoM and 4.6% YoY. From January to April 2026, China’s cumulative bauxite imports reached 77.728 million mt, up 14.7% YoY. By country, China imported 16.423 million mt of bauxite from Guinea in April 2026, down 9.4% MoM and 1.9% YoY. From January to April 2026, China’s cumulative bauxite imports from Guinea reached 62.964 million mt, up 18.5% YoY. Guinea remained the major source of China’s bauxite imports. In terms of shipments, as of May 22, the average daily bauxite shipment volume from major Guinean ports fell to 559,000 mt/day, down around 21.8% MoM. Taking into account the shipping schedule transmission period, domestic bauxite arrivals are expected to gradually decline from late June, with a relatively significant decrease in domestic bauxite arrivals expected in July. Market Impact Factors In May 2026, overseas bauxite prices were mainly affected by three factors: expectations surrounding Guinea’s export policy, rising energy and seaborne freight costs, and the restraint on procurement appetite caused by high bauxite inventories at domestic alumina refineries. First, Guinea’s bauxite export quota policy remained a key market focus. Earlier, market rumours suggested that the Guinean government might implement a bauxite export quota policy around the May Day holiday, which could support Guinea bauxite prices by restricting shipment volumes. However, as the relevant policy has yet to be officially implemented, its marginal impact on market sentiment has weakened. Market participants have also become less active in pricing and stockpiling based on this factor. Second, rising energy and seaborne freight costs provided some support for overseas bauxite prices. Affected by geopolitical disruptions, international oil prices remained at high levels, pushing up mine land transportation, seaborne freight, and production operating costs. According to SMM survey, freight rates from Guinea to China rose from around $34/wmt in April to $36-37.5/wmt during May, significantly lifting shipment costs for mines and traders. Against the backdrop of increasing cost pressure, some mines and traders saw weaker shipment enthusiasm, while the market also observed a slowdown in shipment pace. Third, raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries remained relatively high, limiting their acceptance of high-priced imported bauxite. Currently, bauxite inventories at domestic alumina refineries generally remain above three months. Downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand, while willingness to chase high-priced resources remains weak. Although some long-term contract prices for Guinea-to-China cargoes were around $70/mt in May, SMM survey showed that some downstream alumina refineries’ intended procurement prices for spot cargoes were still concentrated around $65-67/mt, indicating that the price gap between buyers and sellers remained significant. Price Outlook On the supply side, energy and seaborne freight costs remain high, providing certain support for overseas bauxite prices. Meanwhile, the phased decline in shipment volumes from major Guinean ports may gradually transmit to China’s arrival volume. On the demand side, bauxite inventories at domestic alumina refineries remain relatively sufficient, and the likelihood of a sharp increase in their procurement price expectations in the short term is limited. The price negotiation between buyers and sellers remains relatively evident. SMM expects overseas bauxite prices to fluctuate at high levels in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in Guinea shipments, seaborne freight trends, the pace of inventory consumption at domestic alumina refineries, and changes in procurement sentiment.

Imported Bauxite Prices As of May 25, 2026, ex-China bauxite prices generally remained stable with a slight upward trend. Affected by rising energy and ocean freight costs, some imported ore prices edged up. However, raw material inventory at China's alumina refineries stayed high, and downstream acceptance of high-priced resources was limited, with market transactions still dominated by just-in-time procurement. Among them, the SMM imported bauxite CIF index (converted to 45/3 grade) was quoted at $67.61/mt, up $0.09/mt MoM, with the monthly price range at $67.52-67.85/mt. By variety, Guinea bauxite FOB prices (converted to 45/3 grade) were quoted at $38/mt, flat MoM, with prices remaining stable since May. Guinea bauxite CIF prices (converted to 45/3 grade) were quoted at $68/mt, up $0.05/mt MoM, with the monthly price range at $67-68/mt. Australia bauxite CIF prices (49-50/6-7 grade) were quoted at $62/mt, and Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF prices (51-52/8-10 grade) were quoted at $56.5/mt, both flat MoM. Turkey bauxite CFR prices (54/6 grade) were quoted at $78.5/mt, up $2.5/mt MoM, with prices rising from $76/mt to $78.5/mt within the month. Malaysia bauxite CIF prices (37-41/5-6 grade) were quoted at $52/mt, Malaysia washed bauxite CIF prices (37-41/5-6 grade) were quoted at $62.5/mt, and Ghana bauxite CIF prices (47-51/5-6 grade) were quoted at $78/mt, all remaining stable within the month. Bauxite Imports and Exports Customs data showed that in April 2026, China imported 19.743 million mt of bauxite, down 9.4% MoM and down 4.6% YoY. From January to April 2026, China's cumulative bauxite imports totalled 77.728 million mt, up 14.7% YoY. By country, in April 2026, China imported 16.423 million mt of bauxite from Guinea, down 9.4% MoM and down 1.9% YoY. From January to April 2026, China's cumulative bauxite imports from Guinea totalled 62.964 million mt, up 18.5% YoY. Guinea remained the primary source country for China's bauxite imports. Shipment side, as of May 22, daily average bauxite shipments from Guinea's main ports fell to 559,000 mt/day, down approximately 21.8% MoM. Considering the shipping schedule transmission cycle, China's bauxite port arrivals are expected to gradually pull back from late June, with a notable decline expected in July. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors In May 2026, ex-China bauxite prices were mainly affected by three factors: Guinea's export policy expectations, rising energy and ocean freight costs, and high inventory at China's alumina refineries suppressing purchase willingness. First, Guinea's bauxite export quota policy remained a market focus. Earlier, there were market rumours that the Guinean government might implement the bauxite export quota policy around the Labour Day holiday, driving up Guinea bauxite prices by restricting shipments. However, as the relevant policy had yet to be officially implemented, its marginal impact on market sentiment weakened, and market participants' enthusiasm for pricing and stockpiling based on this factor also declined. Second, rising energy and ocean freight costs provided some support for ex-China ore prices. Affected by geopolitical disruptions, international oil prices fluctuated at highs, and mine overland transport, ocean freight, and production operating costs all rose. According to an SMM survey, ocean freight rates from Guinea to China rose from approximately $34/wmt in April to $36-37.5/wmt in May, significantly pushing up shipping costs for mines and traders. Against the backdrop of increasing cost pressure, some mines and traders showed reduced enthusiasm for shipments, and the market also saw a slowdown in shipping pace. Third, raw material inventory at China's alumina refineries remained at a relatively high level, limiting acceptance of high-priced imported ore. Currently, bauxite inventory at China's alumina refineries stood at over 3 months, with downstream buyers mainly making just-in-time procurement and showing weak willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise. Although some long-term contract prices from Guinea to China were around $70/mt in May, an SMM survey found that some downstream alumina refineries' intended prices for spot bauxite purchases were still concentrated around $65-67/mt, with significant price divergence between buyers and sellers. Price Outlook Supply side, energy and ocean freight costs stayed high, providing some support for ex-China bauxite prices. Meanwhile, shipments from Guinea's main ports pulled back on a phased basis, which may gradually transmit to China's port arrival side. Demand side, bauxite inventory at China's alumina refineries remained relatively sufficient, with limited possibility of significantly raising procurement target prices in the short term, and notable bargaining between high- and low-priced resources persisted in the market. SMM expects that ex-China bauxite prices will hover at highs in the near term. Continued attention should be paid to changes in Guinea's shipments, ocean freight rate trends, the pace of inventory drawdown at China's alumina refineries, and shifts in procurement sentiment.

According to the latest data from SMM's customs database, imports of SMM hydrometallurgy intermediate products reached 154,933 mt in physical content in March 2026, down 10% MoM and up 8.8% YoY. By country, the main decline this month was attributable to reduced imports of hydrometallurgy intermediate products from Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, and New Caledonia.

Primary Aluminum Imports According to data from the General Administration of Customs, domestic primary aluminum imports reached approximately 265,000 tons in April 2026, rising 4.1% month-on-month and 5.9% year-on-year. The total domestic import volume from January to April 2026 stood at around 911,000 tons, up 9.2% year-on-year. Primary Aluminum Exports Per statistics released by the General Administration of Customs, domestic primary aluminum exports were about 16,000 tons in April 2026, growing 6.3% month-on-month and 13.7% year-on-year. The cumulative export volume in the first four months of 2026 hit roughly 54,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 55.1%. (The above import and export data are based on HS Codes: 76011090 and 76011010)

In April 2026, China's alumina imports and exports were as follows: imports reached 610,080 tonnes, up 80.33% month-on-month and a massive 5,598.77% year-on-year; exports stood at 516,860 tonnes, up 146.8% month-on-month and 96.62% year-on-year. The sharp increase in both imports and exports was mainly due to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which caused large quantities of Middle Eastern alumina to be diverted into China. The surge in exports was also largely because these imported alumina shipments were re-exported from China to the Middle East after transshipment.

The National Economy Maintained Steady Progress in January–April In January–April, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy, accelerated the construction of a new development pattern, effectively implemented more proactive and impactful macro policies, and focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations. Production and supply grew steadily, market sales continued to expand, foreign trade resilience was further demonstrated, employment and prices remained generally stable, new momentum grew stronger, and high-quality development advanced toward new and better directions. I. Industrial Production Grew Rapidly, with Equipment Manufacturing and High-tech Manufacturing Growing at a Faster Pace In January–April, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 5.6% YoY. By three major categories, the value added of the mining industry grew 5.5% YoY, manufacturing grew 5.8%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water grew 4.5%. The value added of equipment manufacturing grew 8.7% YoY, and that of high-tech manufacturing grew 12.6%, which were 3.1 and 7 percentage points faster than the overall value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, respectively. By economic type, the value added of state-holding enterprises grew 4.4% YoY; joint-stock enterprises grew 6.0%, foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises grew 3.9%; and private enterprises grew 5.2%. By product, the production of 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, and industrial robots grew 50.9%, 36.0%, and 25.7% YoY, respectively. In April, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide grew 4.1% YoY and 0.05% MoM. In April, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%; the business activity expectations index of enterprises was 54.5%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. In January–March, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 1,696 billion yuan, up 15.5% YoY. II. The Service Sector Grew Steadily, with Modern Services Developing Well In January–April, the national service sector production index grew 4.9% YoY. By industry, the production indices of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and the financial industry grew 10.9%, 9.3%, and 6.7% YoY, respectively. In April, the national service sector production index grew 4.3% YoY. In January–March, the operating revenue of service enterprises above designated size grew 6.5% YoY. In April, the business activity index of the service sector was 49.6%; the business activity expectations index of the service sector was 55.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, industries such as railway transport, postal services, and telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services had business activity indices in the relatively high prosperity range of above 55.0%. III. Market Sales Scale Expanded, Service Retail Growth Accelerated From January to April, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 16,494.1 billion yuan, up 1.9% YoY. By location of business units, urban consumer goods retail sales were 14,292.1 billion yuan, up 1.8% YoY; rural consumer goods retail sales were 2,202 billion yuan, up 2.8%. By consumption type, commodity retail sales were 14,605.8 billion yuan, up 1.7%; catering revenue was 1,888.3 billion yuan, up 3.8%. Sales of basic living necessities and some upgraded goods grew relatively fast, with retail sales of grain, oil and food, clothing, footwear, hats, knitwear and textiles, and communication equipment by units above the designated size up 8.6%, 8.1%, and 17.7% YoY respectively. In April, total retail sales of consumer goods were up 0.2% YoY and down 0.48% MoM. From January to April, service retail sales were up 5.6% YoY, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.1 percentage point compared with January to March. Among them, retail sales of communication and information services, tourism, consulting and rental services, culture, sports and leisure services, and transportation services grew relatively fast. From January to April, national online retail sales of goods and services reached 6,530.8 billion yuan, up 6.6% YoY. Of this, online goods retail sales were 4,118.5 billion yuan, up 5.7%, accounting for 25.0% of total retail sales of consumer goods; online service retail sales were 2,412.3 billion yuan, up 8.3%. IV. Fixed Asset Investment Declined YoY, High-Tech Industry Investment Grew Relatively Fast From January to April, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 14,129.3 billion yuan, down 1.6% YoY; excluding real estate development investment, national fixed asset investment grew 1.3%. Of this, intellectual property product investment was up 8.9% YoY. By sector, infrastructure investment was up 4.3% YoY, manufacturing investment up 1.2%, and real estate development investment down 13.7%. The floor space of newly built commercial buildings sold nationwide was 252.58 million m², down 10.2% YoY; sales revenue of newly built commercial buildings was 2,300 billion yuan, down 14.6%. By industry, primary industry investment was up 10.1% YoY, secondary industry investment up 2.5%, and tertiary industry investment down 4.2%. Private investment was down 5.2% YoY; excluding real estate development investment, private investment was down 1.9%. High-tech industry investment was up 6.1% YoY, of which investment in aviation, spacecraft and equipment manufacturing, computer and office equipment manufacturing, and information services grew 17.9%, 13.9%, and 18.1% respectively. In April, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) declined 2.36% MoM. V. Goods Imports and Exports Grew Rapidly, Trade Structure Continued to Optimize In January-April, total goods imports and exports reached 16,225.2 billion yuan, up 14.9% YoY. Of this, exports were 9,328 billion yuan, up 11.3%; imports were 6,897.2 billion yuan, up 20.0%. Ordinary Trade imports and exports grew 8.5% YoY. Imports and exports with Belt and Road partner countries grew 13.5%. Private enterprise imports and exports grew 15.9%. Exports of mechanical and electrical products grew 17.6%. In April, total goods imports and exports were 4,377.8 billion yuan, up 14.2% YoY. Of this, exports were 2,481.7 billion yuan, up 9.8%; imports were 1,896 billion yuan, up 20.6%. VI. Employment Situation Remained Generally Stable, Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate Declined In January-April, the average national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%. In April, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The surveyed unemployment rate for local household registration labor force was 5.3%; the surveyed unemployment rate for migrant labor force was 5.0%, of which the surveyed unemployment rate for migrant labor force with agricultural household registration was 5.0%. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The average weekly working hours of employed persons in enterprises nationwide was 48 hours. VII. Consumer Prices Saw a Mild Rebound, Producer Prices Saw Expanded Gains In January-April, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.9% YoY. By category, prices of food, tobacco, alcohol and dining out rose 0.2% YoY, clothing prices rose 1.7%, housing prices fell 0.2%, household goods and services prices rose 2.0%, transportation and communication prices rose 0.3%, education, culture and entertainment prices rose 1.1%, healthcare prices rose 1.9%, and other goods and services prices rose 13.3%. Among food, tobacco, alcohol and dining out prices, pork prices fell 12.2%, grain prices fell 0.3%, fresh fruit prices rose 3.0%, and fresh vegetable prices rose 5.7%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 1.2% YoY. In April, the national CPI rose 1.2% YoY, with the increase expanding 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; up 0.3% MoM. In January-April, the national ex-factory prices of industrial producers rose 0.2% YoY. Of this, in April, ex-factory prices rose 2.8% YoY, with the increase expanding 2.3 percentage points from the previous month; up 1.7% MoM. From January to April, the national industrial producer purchase price increased 0.5% YoY. Of which, April was up 3.5% YoY, with the increase expanding 2.7 percentage points from the previous month; up 2.1% MoM. Overall, from January to April, the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, with high-quality development advancing solidly. However, it should be noted that the external environment remains complex and volatile, the domestic imbalance of strong supply and weak demand remains prominent, some enterprises face operational difficulties, and the foundation for steady and positive economic development still needs to be consolidated. In the next phase, it is necessary to adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, maintain the general principle of seeking progress while ensuring stability, fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, precisely and effectively implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately accommodative monetary policies, continuously expand domestic demand and optimize supply, enhance incremental growth and revitalize existing assets, strengthen the endogenous driving force of economic development, further strengthen the domestic circulation, optimize the domestic-international dual circulation, and promote sustained and healthy economic development. Recommended reading: