[SMM Aluminum Brief] This week, China’s 97% fluorite wet powder market was stable, with mainstream delivered prices at 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt and price differences across regions. The supply side was constrained by safety and environmental protection checks and insufficient operating rates at small and medium mines. High-grade ore was in tight supply. Additionally, imports from Mongolia declined, spot cargo and enterprise inventories were low, and miners held prices firm with a strong sentiment. Demand-side performance diverged: the refrigerant industry entered the off-season, with hydrofluoric acid plants making just-in-time and contract purchases amid losses; demand from lithium battery electrolytes and electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid remained stable, supporting high-grade fluorite. In the short term, the tight supply situation is unlikely to ease, and import increases will be limited, so fluorite prices are likely to remain generally stable with a slight rise.

[SMM Aluminum Bulletin] Concentrated maintenance-driven production cuts at multiple overseas refineries and persistently rising ocean freight rates jointly tightened the supply of spot coke outside China significantly. This drove up external purchase costs for traders sharply and prompted domestic buyers to proactively slow down their procurement pace, directly causing a sharp pullback in May port arrivals and synchronous price spikes. At this stage, the maintenance cycle at major overseas refineries has yet to conclude, making the strong overseas spot market difficult to reverse in the short term. Import costs for China are likely to fluctuate at highs. SMM forecasts that petroleum coke port arrivals may see a slight recovery in June but will struggle to return to previous highs.

June 26, 2026 – The chromium market continued to decline this week, with the ample supply pattern unchanged and demand remaining weak.

Thanks to robust semiconductor demand, South Korea’s June exports are expected to post even stronger growth, with the monthly trade surplus likely to surpass $30 billion for the first time. According to a median forecast from a Wall Street Journal survey of nine economists, exports are expected to grow 57.3% YoY in June, up from a revised 53.4% in May, while imports are projected to rise 23.5% YoY, driving the trade surplus for the month to $32 billion. Seunghoon Stephen Lee, chief economist at Meritz Securities, said chips and computers are seen as the key drivers of export growth, with the pace of export growth expected to remain above 50% in H2.

SMM, June 26: Against the backdrop of sluggish downstream demand, product prices across the cobalt industry chain showed a downward trend under pressure. Cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride recorded five consecutive declines this week, while refined cobalt spot quotations also fell below the round-number level of 380,000 yuan/mt during the week... SMM compiled the quotation changes for cobalt products this week as follows: : According to SMM spot quotations, although refined cobalt spot prices rose 2,500 yuan/mt on the last trading day, they still showed an overall decline this week. As of June 26, refined cobalt spot quotations were in the range of 374,000~385,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 379,500 yuan/mt, down 4,000 yuan/mt from June 18, a decline of 1.04%. Supply and demand side, on the supply front, mainstream smelters lowered their ex-factory quotations to 385,000 yuan/mt. After the deep price slump, most traders suspended market offerings, and wait-and-see sentiment dominated. On the demand side, the rush-to-buy-amid-continuous-price-rise and hold-back-amid-price-downturn mentality continued to curb the downstream procurement pace. Alloy-type enterprises remained on the sidelines and postponed restocking, while some magnetic material enterprises released small procurement demand near 380,000 yuan/mt, making selective restocking. In the short term, futures still face choppy pressure. A stabilization in refined cobalt prices requires two conditions: first, an easing of market funding pressure and a reduction in low-price sell-offs; second, that prices of related products such as cobalt salts stop falling and stabilize, forming support for market confidence. Cobalt intermediate product prices, according to SMM spot quotations, as of June 26, cobalt intermediate product (CIF China) spot prices remained stable earlier, then edged down $0.025/lb on the last trading day of the week. Quotations stayed in the range of $24.75-25.5/lb, with an average of $25.125/lb. The overall price center changed little. According to SMM, on the supply side of cobalt intermediate products, mainstream miners and traders maintained their offers near $25.5/lb, while downstream smelters remained conservative in procurement, with intended purchase prices generally below $25/lb. Some smelters even planned to sell their intermediate products at $24.8-24.9/lb, turning to procure low-priced recycled black mass to control production costs. On the logistics side, since May, some Chinese-invested miners have gradually increased chartered shipping volumes, and some leading miners have gradually resumed shipments since June. Port arrivals of intermediate products are expected to trend slowly upward in the following months, potentially forming concentrated batch arrivals after August. In the short term, end-use demand support is insufficient, and cobalt intermediate product prices will most likely continue to move sideways. Should prices strengthen going forward, a recovery in downstream operating rates and a repair of cobalt salt prices must form a resonance. Cobalt salt side ( and ): : According to SMM spot price data, cobalt sulphate spot prices continued to show persistent weakness this week. After five consecutive declines, spot cobalt sulphate prices dropped to 85,000-87,300 yuan/mt, with the average price reported at 86,150 yuan/mt, down 2,350 yuan/mt from 88,500 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 2.66%. According to SMM, the trading atmosphere in the cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish this week, with the spot price center slowly moving lower. Supply side performance continued to diverge: offers from primary smelters were relatively firm, with mainstream producers maintaining their minimum selling intention price above 85,000 yuan/mt; some recycling smelters and traders, under cash flow pressure, lowered offers further to 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, the continuous price erosion dampened downstream stockpiling confidence, with enterprises’ psychological price levels largely concentrated at 79,000-80,000 yuan/mt. Although some downstream purchase intention prices have converged with the lowest seller offers in the market, bulk transactions remained limited as the low-priced supply did not fully match downstream requirements in commercial terms and product quality. In the short term, the weak pattern of cobalt sulphate prices is hard to fundamentally reverse, and stabilization and rebound still await the material realization of downstream concentrated restocking demand. side: According to SMM spot price data, spot cobalt chloride prices also recorded five consecutive declines this week. As of June 26, spot cobalt chloride prices dropped to 104,000-106,500 yuan/mt, with the average price reported at 105,250 yuan/mt, down 3,750 yuan/mt from 109,000 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 3.44%. From a fundamental perspective, the cobalt chloride market continued to be extremely sluggish this week, with scarce actual transactions and spot liquidity almost drying up. Supply side, most smelters remained suspended from quoting, and sporadic offers more reflected cost bottom lines and psychological expectations. Against the backdrop of difficulty in achieving sales without substantial price concessions, their guiding significance for transactions has been quite limited. Demand side, downstream producers still held some raw material inventory to maintain turnover. In an environment of weak end-use demand and continuous price erosion, the “rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn” mentality combined with pessimistic expectations for the future further suppressed purchase willingness. Overall, although the pessimistic atmosphere in the cobalt chloride market was still spreading and the divergence between bulls and bears not fully resolved, a relatively positive signal emerged this week: current transactions could no longer factor in the semi-annual report performance window of various companies, and upstream offers in the market have stabilized after stopping falling, injecting a glimmer of hope into the overall pessimistic market sentiment. However, the direction for H2 remains unclear, and the guiding value of the July price trend remains prominent and warrants close attention. : According to SMM spot price assessments, spot Co3O4 quotes drifted lower this week. As of June 26, spot Co3O4 quotes fell to 329,000-341,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 335,000 yuan/mt, down 3,500 yuan/mt from 338,500 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 1.03%. According to SMM, the Co3O4 market also remained extremely sluggish this week, with very few actual transactions. On the supply side, upstream producers still held divergent views on the market outlook, but given that this week's deals could no longer be settled before the semi-annual report deadline, most previously bearish enterprises had largely completed their shipments, releasing price pressure in stages, and offers began to stabilize this week. On the demand side, although June is a traditional negotiation window, against the backdrop of persistently falling Co3O4 prices, downstream cathode material plants generally adopted a wait-and-see approach; even when they had purchasing intentions, they mainly pushed for significantly lower prices, and the continued price decline in turn further weakened upstream shipment motivation. Overall, the subsequent trend of Co3O4 will still depend on the price direction of cobalt salts. On the news front, recently, the May cobalt product import and export data were released. According to customs data, China's imports of unwrought cobalt in May 2026 were approximately 673 mt, down 50% MoM but up 3% YoY. By source, the top three regions for refined cobalt imports in May were Indonesia (211 mt), Madagascar (93 mt), and Canada (85 mt). The sharp drop in imports this month was mainly because previously accumulated overseas low-priced cobalt raw materials had been consumed, and the prices of newly imported cobalt plates and cobalt beans were higher than other domestic cobalt raw materials, leading to reduced willingness of smelters to purchase for remelting. On the import price side, the average import price of China's unwrought cobalt in May 2026 was $54,557/mt, up 3.48% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to May 2026 reached 6,589 mt, up 120% YoY. On the export side, China's unwrought cobalt exports in May 2026 were approximately 370 mt, up 70% MoM but down 88% YoY. By destination, China's exports to the Netherlands surged significantly, with May exports reaching 205 mt, up 791% MoM. On the export price side, the average export price of China's unwrought cobalt in May 2026 was $53,403/mt, down 2.17% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to May 2026 totaled 2,161 mt, down 79% YoY. Cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products, China's imports of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in May 2026 were approximately 2,584 mt in physical content, up 107% MoM and down 95% YoY, of which imports from the DRC were approximately 2,066 mt in physical content, up 119% MoM and down 96% YoY. The average import price of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in May 2026 was $16,607/mt in physical content, down 3.37% MoM. It is reported that since May, some Chinese miners have been increasing shipment bookings, and some leading miners have gradually resumed shipments from June. Port arrivals of intermediate products are expected to slowly increase in the coming months, and bulk arrivals are expected after August.

According to data from China Customs, in January-May 2026, China’s combined imports of refined lead and lead products totaled 248,443 mt, surging 291.06% YoY on a cumulative basis. The import window was wide open for most of H1, and overseas cargoes kept pouring in. Total imports had already exceeded the full-year 2025 level. On the export side, combined exports of refined lead and lead products in January-May amounted to only 20,197 mt, down 32.49% YoY, remaining at low levels.