Data Notes Sulphur : HS codes 25030000 (sulphur of all kinds, excluding sublimed, precipitated and colloidal sulphur) + 28020000 (sublimed or precipitated sulphur) Sulphuric acid : HS code 28070010 (sulphuric acid with H₂SO₄ content >80% by weight) Total volumes : Sulphur imports in H1 2026 reached 1.8481 million tonnes (1,848,104,145 kg), down 29.4% from H1 2025 (2.6191 million tonnes). Sulphuric acid imports totaled 560,600 tonnes (560,640,243.7 kg). Values : Total sulphur import value was approximately USD 1.270 billion , with an average price of USD 687/tonne . Sulphuric acid imports totaled about USD 111 million , averaging USD 199/tonne . 1. Sulphur: Volumes Shrink by Nearly 30%; Prices Stable Early Then Surge 1.1 Monthly Import Volume and Price Trends Trend commentary : Jan–Apr : Prices traded in a narrow range of USD 540–556/t , remaining broadly stable. January volume reached 0.3781 million tonnes (second-highest in H1), February fell 43.5% MoM to 0.2137 million tonnes due to the Lunar New Year holiday, March rebounded to 0.3744 million tonnes, and April eased to 0.2673 million tonnes. Global sulphur supply was ample during this period, and Indonesian buying remained steady. May–Jun : Prices turned sharply upward. May averaged USD 798/t , up 46.4% MoM; June surged further to USD 1,108/t , a gain of USD 563/t (+103%) from April's trough. This rally was driven by concentrated HPAL project restocking, recovering international phosphate fertiliser demand, and sharply reduced Middle Eastern supplies to Indonesia. June showed a "volume-price simultaneous rise" pattern (vol. +21.2%, price +38.8%), indicating buying appetite persisted despite high prices. 1.2 Major Source Countries: Saudi Arabia Leads, Canada Emerges Strong Key observations : The six Middle Eastern countries (Saudi, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman) together supplied about 0.9824 million tonnes , accounting for 53.2% — still the largest regional block, but down sharply from 2.0999 million tonnes in H1 2025, a 53.2% decline . Canada saw its share jump from ~8.5% in H1 2025 (0.2219 million tonnes) to 17.7% , with volumes rising 47.6% year-on-year (from 0.2219 to 0.3275 million tonnes), becoming the second-largest source. Canadian high-purity solid sulphur performs well in nickel smelting applications. UAE, Qatar and Kuwait averaged only USD 541–557/t, significantly lower than Saudi (USD 754/t) and Canada (USD 773/t). 1.3 Major Destination Ports: Three Nickel Parks Absorb Over 80% The three major nickel-industrial parks – WEDA, MOROWALI and OBI ISLAND – together imported 1.5333 million tonnes, accounting for 83.0% of Indonesia's total sulphur imports. These parks are the core hubs for downstream nickel processing (HPAL and RKEF with integrated sulphuric acid/fertiliser units), making sulphur import demand heavily concentrated in the nickel sector. WEDA alone accounts for 38.2% of national imports, the largest single destination. GRESIK (0.1518 million tonnes, 8.2%) mainly receives Qatari, Kuwaiti and Indian sulphur, serving industrial zones in eastern Java. Tanjung Priok, as Jakarta's main port, handles only 0.0624 million tonnes (3.4%), serving traditional chemical and fertiliser industries on Java. 1.4 Year-on-Year Decline Breakdown: Middle East Six Net Decrease of 1.1175 Million Tonnes In H1 2025, the six Middle Eastern countries exported a total of 2.0999 million tonnes of sulphur to Indonesia, falling to 0.9824 million tonnes in H1 2026, a net decrease of 1.1175 million tonnes (-53.2%) . Changes by country: Note: Bahrain was the only Middle Eastern country to increase exports to Indonesia, though from a small base (0.02→0.0442 million tonnes), with limited impact on the overall picture. Main reasons for the decline : ① International sulphur prices had been strengthening from late 2025 through June 2026, prompting Middle Eastern suppliers to divert cargoes to higher-paying markets like India, China and North Africa; ② Some newly built sulphur-burning acid plants in Indonesia came on stream, partially replacing imported sulphur. Increases from Canada (+0.1056 million tonnes) and the Philippines (+0.02 million tonnes) covered only about 11% of the shortfall. 2. Sulphuric Acid: Imports Rise Against the Trend; South Korea Becomes Largest Source 2.1 Monthly Import Volume and Price Trends Trend commentary : January : Volume was 0.0270 million tonnes at USD 141/t, the low point for H1. Feb–Apr : Volumes climbed steadily to a half-year peak of 0.1735 million tonnes in April, while prices rose from USD 143 to 182/t. The commissioning of new HPAL projects unleashed rigid demand. May : Volumes plummeted 68% (to 0.0553 million tonnes), yet prices surged to USD 241/t as multiple Japanese and South Korean smelters entered annual maintenance, tightening acid export availability. June : Volumes rebounded to 0.1112 million tonnes and prices soared to USD 309/t , up 119% from January. This record high was driven by a confluence of cost-push from sulphur (averaging USD 1,108/t), persistent Japanese/Korean maintenance, and panic-buying by Indonesian smelters. 2.2 Major Source Countries: South Korea Ranks First, China and Japan Follow The three East Asian suppliers (South Korea, China and Japan) together delivered 0.5239 million tonnes, or 93.4% of total sulphuric acid imports – concentration even higher than previously reported. South Korea ranked first with 0.2065 million tonnes (36.8%), up 0.025 million tonnes from previous data; China rose to second with 0.1821 million tonnes (32.5%), up 0.0274 million tonnes; Japan imported 0.1353 million tonnes (24.1%), down 0.0281 million tonnes. Acid's corrosive nature limits shipping distances (typically <3,000 nautical miles), so regional proximity gives Asian neighbours a dominant role. India's high average of USD 380/t reflects specialised high-purity or fuming acid grades in small volumes. Taiwan's low average of USD 134.0/t is a price trough, benefiting from its developed refinery by-product acid and short-haul freight advantages. 2.3 Major Destination Ports: OBI ISLAND Takes Half the Market OBI ISLAND alone accounts for 50.0% (0.2802 million tonnes) of all acid imports, as it hosts multiple Chinese- and Korean-backed nickel-cobalt HPAL projects with enormous demand for finished acid. The top three ports (OBI+BAHUDOPI+WEDA) together represent 76.2% , up significantly from the previous 57.5%, indicating further concentration of acid imports to major ports – narrowing the gap with sulphur's 83.0% port concentration. 3. Joint Analysis of Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid: Volume-Price Co-movement and Structural Divergence 3.1 Overall Volume and Price Elasticity Comparison Price transmission and elasticity divergence : Sulphur jumped by USD 568/t from January (540) to June (1,108), a 105% gain, while acid rose 119% over the same period. Acid shows slightly higher price elasticity because its own supply-demand fundamentals are tighter (Korean/Japanese maintenance, rigid Indonesian demand) and its spot market is smaller, making it more vulnerable to marginal changes. The sulphur-to-acid volume ratio fell from 14:1 in January to a range of 2.0–3.6:1 from February to June, reflecting Indonesia's dynamic balancing act between importing sulphur for captive acid production and directly importing finished acid. When sulphur is expensive (e.g., USD 1,108/t in June), some smelters prefer to buy finished acid to avoid operating acid plants, supporting June's acid volume rebound. 3.2 Supply Pattern Comparison Sulphur sources are more diversified (Middle East, North America, Southeast Asia), while acid supply is heavily concentrated in nearby East Asia – a consequence of their trade characteristics: sulphur can be shipped long-haul (Capesize/Panamax), whereas acid is constrained by corrosion and shipping costs, limiting its trade radius. Acid port concentration (76.2%) and sulphur port concentration (83.0%) have converged significantly – the gap narrowing from 25.5 percentage points to just 6.8 percentage points – indicating that the geographic concentration of demand for the two products is increasingly aligned. 3.3 Structural Changes from 2025 to 2026 Core conclusion : Indonesia's sulphur imports fell in volume but rose in value, with Middle Eastern suppliers retreating sharply and Canada filling the gap. Sulphuric acid imports increased in both volume and price, with direct acid imports becoming an important channel to compensate for domestic acid-making capacity, and its price gains substantially outpacing sulphur's. 3.4 Outlook for H2 2026 Sulphur : The June price of USD 1,108/t is at a historical high, and expectations for H2 currently point to continued high-level volatility. Full-year imports are estimated at 3.6–3.8 million tonnes, down about 20% year-on-year. Sulphuric acid : After the maintenance season in Korea and Japan, supply may recover, but multiple HPAL projects on OBI Island and in WEDA are still ramping up. Monthly import volumes are expected to remain at 100,000–120,000 tonnes in H2, with prices oscillating at elevated levels of USD 260–330/t. Shifting supply patterns : Canada is on track to overtake Saudi Arabia as Indonesia's largest sulphur supplier by 2027. Chinese sulphuric acid exports to Indonesia also have room to grow, especially from integrated refining-petrochemical complexes on China's east and south coasts.

SMM August 7 News: Metal Markets: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market broadly rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.1%. SHFE aluminum gained 0.38%. SHFE lead edged up 0.1%. SHFE zinc rose 1.11%, while SHFE tin fell 0.98%. SHFE nickel dropped 1.22%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract edged up 0.09%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract fell 0.52%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Stainless steel edged up, iron ore gained 0.35%, and rebar rose 0.17%. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) increased 0.59%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract rose 1.54%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.48%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper shot up to an intraday high of $14,369.5/mt, a level not seen since January 29, before eventually closing with a 0.4% decline. LME aluminum gained 0.65%. LME lead fell 0.29%. LME zinc rose 0.64%. LME tin dropped 1.43%. LME nickel fell 2.45%. Overnight Precious Metals : COMEX gold fell 0.15%, and COMEX silver dropped 0.81%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures contract fell 0.01%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract declined 0.93%. Closing prices as of 7:03 AM, August 7: Macro Front Domestic (China) News: [Guangdong: Promote the Integration of Futures and Spot Markets for Key Commodities like Iron Ore, Crude Oil, and Rubber to Enhance Pricing Influence on Bulk Commodities] The "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the China (Guangdong) Pilot Free Trade Zone (Draft for Comments)" was released for public comment. It mentioned plans to expand financial opening-up in an orderly manner. International financial institutions will be encouraged to set up headquarters in the zone, promoting the development of cross-border finance, innovative finance, venture capital and investment, wealth management, futures trading, asset management, specialty finance, and offshore services. The Plan aims to accelerate the implementation of projects like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area International Commercial Bank and the GBA Insurance Service Center. It supports expanding the scale of commodity trading and promoting the integration of futures and spot markets for key commodities like iron ore, crude oil, and rubber to enhance their pricing influence. The Plan will promote the quality improvement and upgrade of fintech regulatory pilots and expand digital yuan application scenarios. It supports pilot programs for cross-border financial innovations such as offshore finance and green finance, and will promote the expansion of pilot programs like cross-border Wealth Management Connect and digital yuan cross-border payments. Institutions within the zone will be supported in developing specialty products like cross-border supply chain finance and intellectual property-pledged financing, and market entities will be guided to develop composite financial products. Pilots for cross-border credit asset transfers and multi-currency integrated accounts will be deepened to promote wider mutual recognition and connectivity of cross-border financial products. (Guangdong Department of Commerce) [CAAM: June Auto Commodity Import and Export Value Hits $31.82 Billion, Up 35.5% YoY] According to data from the General Administration of Customs compiled by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the total import and export value of auto commodities in June 2026 was $31.82 billion, up 8.0% MoM and up 35.5% YoY. The import value was $3.39 billion, down 6.1% MoM and down 18.7% YoY; the export value was $28.43 billion, up 10.0% MoM and up 47.2% YoY. From January to June 2026, the cumulative import and export value of national auto commodities totaled $164.74 billion, up 25.5% YoY. The import value was $19.25 billion, down 11.8% YoY; the export value was $145.49 billion, up 33.0% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.26% to 99.95. Escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on both US stocks and bonds, causing them to fall. Oil prices jumped, reigniting inflation concerns ahead of the key US employment report. Market focus now turns to Friday's US employment report for new clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Stronger-than-expected jobs data could reinforce the case for higher-for-longer interest rates, while any escalation of tensions in the Middle East could push up energy prices and intensify market fluctuations. UBS analyst Ulrike Hoffmann noted: "Short-term risks remain, especially if US data remains firm, oil prices continue to fuel inflation concerns, or the market continues pricing in a more hawkish Fed rate path." Interactive Brokers Senior Economist José Torres stated: "Wall Street reversed again from recent strong gains as the lack of clarity concerning the Strait of Hormuz led investors to question whether the robust rally early this week was justified." (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 45%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 55%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through October is 31%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 51.9%, and a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 17.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a report by the UK's Financial Times, even after a decision not to reveal too many details on rate strategy triggered a sharp sell-off in government bonds, Fed Chairman Warsh is sticking with his usual concise communication style. People close to Warsh say he acknowledges making some mistakes during his first 10 weeks at the helm of the world's most important central bank, including failing to reinforce his key message on price stability and creating confusion over whether his long-term plan to reform the Fed could influence near-term policy decisions. However, they insisted those mistakes were not enough to derail Warsh's reform plans for the Fed. People familiar with the matter also revealed that Warsh is prepared to raise interest rates at the September meeting if upcoming inflation data proves strong and market expectations for higher borrowing costs rise accordingly. The sources added that while the Fed Chairman raised the possibility of shrinking the central bank's $6.7 trillion balance sheet to tighten monetary policy, interest rates remain the primary tool for now and will be used at upcoming meetings if necessary. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro Events: Data releases today include France's Q2 ILO unemployment rate, Germany's June seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM, Germany's June seasonally adjusted trade balance, the UK's July Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM, France's June trade balance, Switzerland's July consumer confidence index, Canada's July employment change, the US July unemployment rate, US July seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US July average hourly earnings YoY, US July average hourly earnings MoM, US July New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, China's July US dollar-denominated trade balance, China's July foreign exchange reserves, and China's July trade balance data. Watches: 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks on the US economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers remarks. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with US oil gaining 4% and Brent oil surging 4.57%. Geopolitical risks rekindled, causing oil prices to spike sharply. Wall Street CN mentioned that the new navigation agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, proposed to be signed by Iran and Oman, revealed significant details again, indicating Iran's bid to control the strait. Furthermore, Iran has taken action, striking "enemy targets" near the strait. Iran's Fars News Agency (FARS) reported on Thursday, August 6, local time, that Iran's parliament is reviewing this agreement. Under the agreement, US and Israeli vessels will be barred from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and nations that have "caused harm to Iran" will also be denied passage permits. Following this news, concerns over risks to global energy transportation rapidly intensified in the market. (Wall Street CN) Saudi Arabia cut its main crude oil price for Asia as negotiations proceed on an agreement aimed at easing shipping pressure in the Strait of Hormuz. The price cut came despite Houthi threats jeopardizing the alternative eastbound crude route via the Red Sea. According to a price list, state oil company Saudi Aramco reduced the price of its Arab Light crude for delivery to Asian clients next month by $0.50 per barrel, setting it at a $2/bbl discount to the regional benchmark. A prior survey showed traders expected Saudi Aramco to keep its flagship crude price unchanged. Global benchmark Brent crude prices fell sharply this week and are now trading near $80/bbl. (Jin10 Data APP) Over the past two months, the UAE has transported more crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz than any other producer, providing a critical supply buffer to a global market suffering from a historic energy crisis. According to energy data firm Kpler, a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) loaded with Emirati cargo appeared in the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday after turning off its Automatic Identification System (AIS) signal at the end of July. The tanker carries crude from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. This is just one of dozens of similar tankers that have departed the Persian Gulf since the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) began implementing a new sales strategy. According to trading sources familiar with the matter, since early June, ADNOC has sold over 130 million barrels of crude oil through seven unprecedented tenders. (Jin10 Data APP)

Turkey's steel product exports continued to recover in the first half of the year, supported by stronger shipments to the European Union. However, a surge in imports—particularly from Russia and the Far East—along with weaker crude steel production has intensified pressure on domestic producers, prompting the Turkish Steel Producers' Association (TÇÜD) to call for tighter oversight of the country's inward processing regime.

[SMM Analysis: Import and Export Market Analysis of China's Copper Foil Industry in H1 2026] According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's cumulative copper foil exports in January–June 2026 were 39,700 mt, up 72.83% YoY; cumulative copper foil imports in January–June were 45,100 mt, up 12.17% YoY, with import growth significantly lower than export growth...

[Tungsten Express] SMM July 30: In H1 2026, the import value of cemented carbide inserts (2.351 billion yuan) was 1.43 times that of the export value (1.64 billion yuan). The export value of coated cemented carbide inserts was up 23.88% YoY, while the import value was up 31.94% YoY; exports of coated cemented carbide inserts stood at 670 mt, down 15% YoY, with the unit price up 46.09% YoY. The export value of non-coated cemented carbide inserts was up 36.03% YoY, and the import value was up 31.37% YoY; exports of non-coated cemented carbide inserts were 814 mt, down 15% YoY, with the unit price up 59.55% YoY.

On July 29, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) held a press conference on the H1 2026 performance of the nonferrous metals industry, both in-person and online. Chen Xuesen, Standing Committee Member of the Party Committee, Vice President and Spokesperson of CNIA, reported on the industry's H1 performance and answered questions from media and enterprise representatives together with relevant department heads. Chen Xuesen stated that the industry's overall operation was stable and improving, with growth in multiple core indicators including production, investment, foreign trade, prices, and profitability. First, production of major varieties grew steadily, while new energy metals diverged. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that total production of ten nonferrous metals in H1 reached 41.513 million mt, up 3.3% YoY. Among the 23 nonferrous metal products monitored, production of 13 products increased YoY, while that of 10 products fell YoY. Production and sales of traditional bulk metals were stable with slight gains: copper cathode output was 7.608 million mt (up 5.2%), copper semis 11.982 million mt (up 0.3%), alumina 45.772 million mt (up 3.3%), and primary aluminum 23.187 million mt (up 3.8%). However, upstream mines and downstream processing sectors faced periodic pressure: metal content of six mined metals was 2.955 million mt (down 5.8%) and aluminum semis production was 32.303 million mt (down 2.4%). Industry value-added grew 0.3% in H1, with value-added of the mining and beneficiation sector up 3.2% and that of smelting and processing edging down 0.3%. Production of key new energy metals diverged: silicon metal output was 2.231 million mt (up 2.5% YoY); lithium carbonate capacity release was significant, with production at 563,000 mt (surging 33.9% YoY); refined nickel and refined cobalt output contracted to 221,000 mt and 60,000 mt, down 4.8% and 41.8% YoY respectively. Second, fixed asset investment edged up, with prominent investment vitality in the mining and beneficiation sector. The growth rate of fixed asset investment in the industry narrowed significantly from Q1 in H1. On one hand, project construction progress was constrained by high temperatures and heavy rainfall in some regions; on the other hand, resource constraints became prominent and capacity "involution" intensified, so enterprises had weak willingness for medium and long-term capital expansion domestically and turned more to overseas markets. Overall, the industry's fixed asset investment edged up only 0.4% YoY, down 10.3 percentage points from the Q1 growth rate, with notable sector divergence: investment in nonferrous metals mining and beneficiation rose 21.2%, while investment in smelting and processing declined 4.1%. Private investment was under pressure overall, with industry private investment down 1.0% YoY in H1. By sector, private investment in smelting, rolling and processing fell 3.0%, while that in mine mining and beneficiation grew 8.1%, becoming the main driver of private investment in the industry. Third, foreign trade scale surged significantly, and gold products became the core engine of trade growth. Amid sluggish global economic recovery and intertwined geopolitical turmoil, the industry's foreign trade saw improvements in both volume and quality, with import and export scale expanding substantially. Customs data showed that in H1, total imports and exports of nonferrous metal products reached $347.13 billion, up 68.0% YoY. Specifically, import value was $280.91 billion, up 81.7%, driven mainly by gold products, while export value was $66.22 billion, up 27.3%. The share of gold product imports and exports in the industry's total trade rose to 41.8%, playing a prominent role in boosting overall foreign trade. Bulk raw material imports and exports showed mixed changes. Among them, imports of copper ores and concentrates were 14.61 million mt, down 0.9% YoY, while bauxite imports were 120 million mt, up 17.4%. Imports and exports of copper and aluminum semis showed a pattern of "reduced imports and increased exports." Specifically, imports of unwrought copper and copper semis were 2.49 million mt, down 5.3%, while exports were 879,000 mt, up 18.2%; imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis were 1.88 million mt, down 5.1%, while exports were 3.396 million mt, up 16.3%. In addition, exports of aluminum products (including aluminum alloy wheel hubs) were 2.576 million mt, up 16.4%. Foreign trade in new energy metals continued to gain momentum. Specifically, lithium carbonate imports were 179,000 mt, up 52.3% YoY, silicon metal exports were 379,000 mt, up 11.4%, and unwrought nickel exports contracted sharply to 12,000 mt, down 86.9%. Fourth, market prices consolidated at high levels, with most product prices falling back MoM in June. Affected by overseas resource monopolies and the transmission of geopolitical conflict premiums, major nonferrous metal prices stayed high in H1, but the high prices also forced downstream enterprises to advance material substitution, which to some extent squeezed the industry's demand growth space. In June, market prices saw a phased correction, with 17 of the 24 products monitored by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) seeing MoM declines. In terms of H1 average prices, seven products declined YoY, but mainstream products such as copper, aluminum, gold, zinc, tungsten and molybdenum saw price increases. In the domestic spot market in H1, among traditional metals, apart from lead, whose average price was 16,649 yuan/mt, down 1.5% YoY, copper averaged 101,964 yuan/mt, up 31.4%, aluminum averaged 24,124 yuan/mt, up 18.8%, zinc averaged 24,276 yuan/mt, edging up 4.2%, while for precious metals, the average spot gold price was 1,058.4 yuan/g, up 45.9%, and silver averaged 19.7 yuan/g, surging 141.1%. New energy metals showed divergent price changes, with the average price of silicon metal at 9,079 yuan/mt, down 10.7%; battery-grade lithium carbonate at 159,000 yuan/mt, surging 128.1%; nickel at 142,000 yuan/mt, up 12.5%; and cobalt at 417,000 yuan/mt, up 101.5%. Fifth, industry profits increased significantly, with the smelting segment becoming the core pillar of profitability. In H1, the profitability of the industry achieved a leap-forward improvement. The 12,362 enterprises above designated size recorded total operating revenue of 5,769.68 billion yuan, up 21.7% YoY, and total profit of 418.39 billion yuan, up 94.0% YoY. The profit growth accounted for 32.6% of the total profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide, boosting the total profit growth of national designated industrial enterprises by 6.1 percentage points, ranking among the top in the industrial sector in terms of profit growth rate. Meanwhile, cost control showed positive results, with the cost per hundred yuan of operating revenue for the above-designated-size enterprises at 90.0 yuan, down 2.7 yuan YoY. The sharp profit increase was driven by multiple favorable factors resonating together: First, tight ore supply and rising scarcity premiums pushed profits toward upstream mines. Second, emerging industries such as AI computing infrastructure, power batteries, energy storage, and NEVs continued to release rigid demand, strongly supporting non-ferrous metal product prices and market demand. Third, geopolitical conflicts periodically pushed up aluminum and sulphuric acid prices, generating phased profit gains; combined with the low price base in H1 2025, these factors jointly drove a sharp YoY increase in profits this year. The profit structure of the industry chain showed a pattern of smelting leading, mining following, and processing being relatively weak. The contribution rates of the mining, smelting, and processing segments to industry profit growth were 23.6%, 65.5%, and 11.0%, respectively, boosting industry profit growth by 22.1, 61.6, and 10.3 percentage points. The profitability difference across the industry chain was significant, with operating profit margins for mining, smelting, and processing standing at 40.6%, 8.9%, and 2.0%, respectively, up 10.3, 3.4, and 0.7 percentage points YoY. The profit increase in the smelting segment was 132.74 billion yuan, accounting for 65.5% of the industry’s profit growth. Aluminum smelting and gold smelting contributed 56.7% and 17.3% of the profit increase in the smelting segment, making them the main drivers of profit growth in the segment. By product, the aluminum sector had the most prominent boosting effect, with a profit growth contribution rate of 43.5%. Dividends from supply-side structural reform in aluminum continued to be released, and global supply tightened due to geopolitical disruptions, pushing aluminum prices persistently higher. The contribution rates of gold, copper, and tungsten & molybdenum were 13.0%, 13.6%, and 9.0%, respectively. Together, these four categories contributed 79% of the industry’s profit growth, becoming the main force behind the profit rise. Profits in only two categories, antimony and silicon metal, were under pressure, while all other metal types achieved positive revenue increases. Chen Xuesen pointed out that since this year, the industry has demonstrated strong development resilience under the dual tests of external risk shocks and internal structural constraints. H1 operations presented three features: support from emerging industry demand, synchronized improvement in industry volume, price, and profit, diversified expansion of overseas resource deployment and continuous improvement of international resource guarantee systems, and prominent domestic resource supply constraints, with primary ores and recycled resources synergistically shoring up weaknesses. Taking all factors into account, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) makes the following projections for the industry's 2026 trajectory: H2 nonferrous industry value-added growth rate is expected to be higher than H1, with a full-year industry value-added growth rate of 2%~3%; production of ten nonferrous metals for the full year is up about 3% YoY; major nonferrous metal prices will swing wildly at highs, with geopolitical situations, downstream demand, and overseas supply being the core variables driving price fluctuations; total import and export value will maintain growth for the full year, with import growth being higher, driven by high-price resource procurement and safe-haven demand; exports of copper and aluminum semis and products possess stable resilience, continuing to provide support for stable foreign trade exports; full-year industry operating revenue and total profit remain up YoY, but revenue and profit growth rates will pull back in H2, with the growth rates showing a pattern of stronger first half and weaker second half; the profit allocation pattern remains unchanged, profit advantage at the resource end remains solid, and except for aluminum smelting, the room for profit improvement in other types of smelting and processing is relatively limited. Chen Xuesen stated that in the next step, the industry will closely follow the deployment and requirements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, focusing on three core tasks: strengthening the resource security baseline, expanding the recycled resource circular industry, accelerating the green and low-carbon transition and proactively addressing international green trade barriers, and cultivating new development momentum and activating enterprise innovation vitality. Multiple measures will be taken to solidify the foundations of the industry chain and supply chain, promoting both quality and efficiency improvements. (China Nonferrous Metals News)