[SMM aluminum flash] Current import ADC12 prices have pulled back to $3,230–$3,300/mt, and the domestic-ex-China inversion gap has narrowed to around 2,300 yuan/mt, the lowest level since mid-March. As prices outside China soften, import losses have recovered markedly from the earlier period. However, constrained by the still-large inversion, the import window remains closed. The willingness to bring in overseas resources is limited, and in the short term, their incremental supplement to domestic supply remains weak.

[Macro Headwinds Dominate Futures; SHFE and LME Aluminum Both Remain in the Doldrums] The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. The Middle East geopolitical situation showed some volatility but no signs of deterioration. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Continued attention should be paid to production resumptions in the Middle East, overseas aluminum ingot inventory trends, and macro news fluctuations.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Night Session Decline Slows Down, Continuous Destocking and Firm Aluminum Scrap Keep Market Cautiously Wait-and-See] On Thursday, mainstream enterprises' quotes for ADC12 were generally lowered by 100–200 yuan/mt, and the SMM ADC12 price fell by 150 yuan/mt from the previous day to 23,850 yuan/mt. Amid the continuous price decline, downstream clients' purchasing enthusiasm did not significantly improve, with just-in-time procurement remaining dominant, wait-and-see sentiment relatively strong, and restocking willingness insufficient.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Bears Add Positions, Aluminum Alloy Night Session Plunges, UAE Aluminum Scrap Export Ban Takes Effect] Overnight, aluminum alloy futures weakened sharply. The night session opened at 22,850 yuan/mt, closed at 22,720 yuan/mt, down 390 yuan/mt, or 1.69%.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Inventory Declines for Three Consecutive Weeks, Supply Tightening Deepens] Last Friday, the ADC12 market as a whole maintained its stable price operation pattern, with SMM ADC12 holding steady at 24,100 yuan/mt. Short-term ADC12 prices are expected to hover at highs.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: May Auto Market Domestic Demand Under Pressure, Exports Strong; Narrowing Price Difference Between A00 Aluminum and Scrap Tightens Raw Material Supply] The ADC12 market traded steadily on Wednesday, with the SMM ADC12 price remaining flat at 23,900 yuan/mt. This week, cast aluminum alloy futures diverged from SHFE aluminum, with cast aluminum futures steady to firm while SHFE aluminum fell below the 24,000 yuan/mt mark. In the spot market, A00 aluminum prices declined for consecutive sessions, but ADC12 prices remained firm. The spread between the two has returned to positive territory, ending the inversion since April, underscoring the resilience of alloy prices.