July 9, 2026 The global silver market is watching India closely: although local consumer demand has been rather subdued recently, premiums for the precious metal are currently skyrocketing on the subcontinent. The cause of this physical shortage in the world’s largest silver market is not a sudden surge in demand, but massive regulatory intervention by the government. The drastic import restrictions have brought foreign inflows to a virtual standstill and are driving local premiums to a six-month high. Import ban drains the domestic market India traditionally meets more than 80 per cent of its silver requirements through imports. The reactions to the restrictive trade policy have been correspondingly fierce. In mid-May, New Delhi drastically restricted imports of the metal in almost all forms and tightened the rules further in June by introducing a mandatory licensing requirement for silver granules and powder. The impact on trade figures is striking: whilst imports in May had already fallen year-on-year from 534.3 to just 46.8 tonnes, the volume fell further in June, according to industry insiders. This artificial shortage is now forcing buyers to pay huge premiums. Whilst silver was still trading locally at discounts of up to US$5.50 in May, premiums over the official world market prices have recently soared to a whopping US$6.50 per ounce – a premium of more than ten per cent. Currency protection meets dwindling stock levels Behind this crackdown lies the clear macroeconomic objective of reducing pressure on foreign exchange reserves and supporting the domestic rupee. Alongside the import restrictions, the government had already massively increased import duties on gold and silver from six to 15 per cent. The fact that the physical shortage did not escalate immediately was solely due to profit-taking by local ETF investors, who liquidated their holdings in the wake of the duty increases in May, thereby temporarily injecting liquidity into the domestic market. However, these buffers have now been exhausted. At present, the Indian market is almost entirely reliant on supplies from Hindustan Zinc, the country’s largest silver producer. As sectors such as the electronics and solar industries, as well as the traditional jewellery sector, are already signalling a resurgence in demand, premiums are likely to climb further if import licences are not granted. For the global market, this presents a mixed picture: on the one hand, the absence of India – a major buyer – from the world market could put downward pressure on international prices in the short term. On the other hand, the situation impressively demonstrates how quickly government intervention can lead to physical shortages in markets for raw materials essential to industry. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/the-current-state-of-the-silver-market-in-india-import-restrictions-are-leading-to-a-drastic

The Aluminum Association of India (AAI) has urged the government to raise import duties, introduce aluminum scrap quality standards and implement grade-based HSN codes to curb low-quality scrap imports. AAI said India's aluminum imports reached a record 3.479 million tonnes in FY26, with aluminum scrap imports costing over INR 402 billion, posing risks to domestic investment, recycling development and the country's aluminum industry.

India's aluminium industry is debating aluminium scrap import duties and quality regulations. While the Aluminium Association of India (AAI) supports stricter quality controls, the Material Recycling Association of India (MRAI) and Aluminium Secondary Manufacturers Association (ASMA) are calling for the removal of the current 2.5% import duty to reduce raw material costs. Industry participants also noted that tightening scrap retention policies in Europe, the Middle East and the US could further influence India's future scrap import policy.

Curated by Copilot Mid-year price outlook: WGC projects gold to hover near $4,100/oz in H2 2026, with upside if macro or geopolitical risks worsen. Correction from record: Prices fell over 25% from January’s $5,600 peak due to a strong dollar, Fed hike fears, and easing Iran tensions. Supportive demand factors: Central bank purchases and long-term investor participation may limit downside and sustain gold's role as a strategic asset. WGC forecasts gold stability with potential for sharp upside The World Gold Council’s mid-year outlook projects gold trading within 5% of $4,100/oz in H2 2026 under current macro conditions. Scenario analysis suggests a climb toward $4,500 is possible, and only a strong, clear catalyst could push prices sustainably to $5,000. Key upside drivers include worsening economic or geopolitical conditions, a dovish turn in Fed policy, and increased long-term investor participation. Newsable Asianet News + 1 From January's record high to mid-year correction Gold has dropped more than 25% from its January 2026 record of $5,602, with London spot prices down over 33% from their peak. The reversal followed a strong US dollar, rising bond yields, and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates, alongside reduced safe-haven demand after US-Iran ceasefire developments. Analysts view the pullback as a corrective consolidation rather than a structural bear market, with technical support seen near $3,900 and $3,600. The Financial Express + 1 At current levels, the headwinds and tailwinds are unusually balanced. Every major gold bull run has seen a 30–40% correction before the next leg higher, and the current decline from January’s peak sits within that range. Kaynat Chainwala,AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities The Financial Express Gold rallies on softer U.S. labour data Weaker-than-expected US jobs growth in June reduced market bets on a September Fed rate hike, helping gold secure its first weekly gain in five weeks. The softer labour data also pressured the US dollar, making gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies. Central banks added 41 tonnes to reserves in May, reinforcing long-term demand support despite recent volatility. The Economic Times + 2 Why the forecast matters for investors now For investors, the WGC’s range-bound outlook suggests patience and phased accumulation strategies amid uncertainty over Fed policy and dollar strength. Historical patterns show that major gold bull runs often see 30–40% corrections before resuming upward, aligning with the current decline. In India, domestic prices remain supported by rupee weakness and higher import duties, cushioning global downside and offering relative stability. The Financial Express + 2 Source： https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/insight/wgc-sees-gold-steady-near-4-100-in-h2-upside-if-risks-rise

July 2, 2026 Following the extreme price drop from $5,500 to below $4,000 per ounce, the gold market is currently struggling to find direction. The key question now is: Will the second half of 2026 cement a sideways trend, or will new factors spark the next rally? The latest outlook from the World Gold Council (WGC) provides answers to these questions. Currently, the precious metal is stabilizing amid moderate growth, persistent inflation, and easing concerns about interest rates. The WGC sees the fair value for the coming months at around $4,100, but expects a fluctuation range of five percent. However, a massive upward breakout remains a realistic scenario: economic downturns, geopolitical escalations, or falling interest rate expectations could quickly drive the price back above $4,500, the WGC said. On the downside, the market is well-protected, as experience shows that pullbacks of more than 10 percent quickly attract countercyclical buyers. The extreme price volatility in the first half of the year, triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict, would gradually subside, the WGC continued, and return to historical averages. The regional dynamics are particularly interesting: While sharp sell-offs have recently occurred primarily during U.S. trading hours, Asian investors have regularly driven strong recoveries. This underscores Asia’s growing market influence on global price formation. Gold: Asia’s Market Influence Grows According to WGC experts, two heavyweights will significantly dictate price trends for the rest of the year: central banks and the Indian market. Despite isolated portfolio shifts in the first quarter, WGC data for 2026 signal sustained buying interest from the official sector. Every additional purchase above the long-term average not only strengthens physical demand but also sends a strong buying signal to institutional investors. The situation in India is the opposite. To conserve foreign exchange reserves in the face of high energy prices, the Indian government has drastically raised gold import duties from 6 to 15 percent and has actively worked to curb purchases. Although this fundamental shift for the world’s second-largest gold market has, according to the WGC, already been largely priced in at current levels, a further economic slowdown in India could place additional pressure on physical demand there as well as on the market for gold-backed loans. In summary, gold remains caught between these forces. Without new macroeconomic catalysts, stabilization at current levels is the most likely scenario. However, should new signs of crisis emerge, the fundamental upside potential is immense, while the downside risk is effectively limited by the reliable network of central banks and long-term investors. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-forecast-wgc-sees-potential-for-a-breakout-above-usd4-500

Nearly one year after China reopened qualified black mass imports, the market has evolved differently from initial expectations. While stronger linkages have emerged between China's domestic and overseas markets, water-soluble fluorine remains a key constraint on direct imports. Meanwhile, overseas intermediate processing has gained attention as an alternative supply chain model, reflecting the industry's growing focus on cross-border resource integration and supply chain optimization.