Back to HRC fundamentals, impact from maintenance for hot-rolled products was 80,600 mt this week, down 234,300 mt WoW; impact from maintenance for hot-rolled products next week is expected at 9.34 mt, an increase of 12,800 mt from this week. Inventory-wise, destocking continued in Ningbo, Lecong, and Tangshan, while inventories in Shanghai and Zhangjiagang edged up slightly. Overall inventory was still expected to remain in a destocking trend. Attention should be paid to tomorrow's SMM weekly HRC balance. In the short term, HRC prices were still expected to fluctuate with costs, with limited momentum for further gains.

[Ningbo Steel's Information on Adjustments to the Product Pricing Policy for April 2026] On March 20, Ningbo Steel adjusted the prices of its HRC products for April 2026, with the details as follows: The April ex-factory prices remained flat from March, with Q235B set at 3,800 yuan/mt; the above prices were cash, tax-inclusive prices, effective from April 1, 2026. [SMM Steel]

This week, ferrous metals fluctuated at highs, with raw material ore and coking products outperforming steel. Against the backdrop of the escalating conflict in the Middle East, ore and coking products held up well, supported by higher shipping costs and transmission from coal and coke as energy substitutes. In the second half of the week, supply and demand data for hot-rolled coil and rebar were released. The increase in rebar inventory slowed markedly; however, hot-rolled coil demand was lower than the same period last year, and the pace of post-holiday recovery was relatively slow, leaving steel as a whole with limited upward momentum, while futures retreated after rapid rise. In the spot market, trading in the Chinese market was average this week.....

[SMM Analysis] Freight Rates Surge, Making Deals Difficult for Steel Expor ters Affected by the US-Iran conflict, tight energy supply and sharply higher fuel costs, compounded by exchange rate fluctuations, have continuously pushed up China's export offers in recent days. Compared with the beginning of the month (March 6), SMM HRC prices have been raised by $9/mt; galvanizing prices rose by $11/mt; CRC rose by $5/mt; billet rose by $6/mt; and rebar rose by $6/mt. However, looking back at market transaction performance, deals weakened again recently. According to the SMM survey, ocean freight rates surged sharply, with current freight to the Middle East as high as $50-60. Most outside China clients remained on the sidelines; shipowners also refused to commit tonnage while waiting for the market to stabilize. For China exporters, there were offers but no market, making shipments difficult. Meanwhile, market sources said Hadeed, the GCC's only flat steel producer, raised its May hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices, still related to shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. HRC cargoes previously booked from China and other origins were also being redirected to the west coast, mainly heading to Jeddah Port, bringing high inland transportation costs. As for global steel prices, in India, in addition to rising raw material costs and rupee depreciation, a sudden LNG energy shortage further pushed up production costs, forcing steel mills to maintain a strong willingness to hold prices firm despite the traditional domestic off-season and blocked exports. In the Southeast Asian market, price increases were accepted entirely passively, mainly due to the rigid pass-through of high ocean freight rates by overseas suppliers. Although Southeast Asian buyers hesitated to take orders, they had no choice but to passively accept the increases against the backdrop of persistently high geopolitical logistics costs. At the same time, CIS export offers also rose significantly, benefiting from the intensifying geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the resulting short-term global supply tightens. In the Middle East market, meanwhile, as war tensions continued to escalate, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz completely disrupted transportation, while freight rates and delivery uncertainty pushed the sheets & plates import markets in the UAE and Saudi Arabia into a complete standstill. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

This week, ferrous metals held up well within a narrow range. Over the weekend, turmoil in the Middle East and the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict triggered wild swings in the international energy market, sending energy and precious metals sharply higher, while ferrous metals—except coking coal and coke—mostly retreated after rapid rise following the open; mid-week, although there were bullish expectations around the Two Sessions, no new news emerged, the steel market remained relatively stable, and the pattern of raw materials outperforming finished steel products continued; in the latter half of the week, the Two Sessions’ macro conclusions met expectations, but had already been priced in by futures earlier, and high-level fluctuations in international oil prices continued to support raw materials, in turn pushing ferrous metals to edge higher on a steady footing. In the spot market, in the second week after the holiday, the market gradually resumed work and resumed production, but with insufficient momentum from futures, overall willingness to purchase was not high, and transactions were mainly concluded at low prices......

HRC prices rose first and then fell this week. The most-traded contract closed at 3,215 yuan/mt in today's session, down 0.25% on the day. Spot HRC offers in major cities fluctuated 10-30 yuan/mt WoW from pre-holiday levels, with weak trading activity. Market news this week mainly revolved around production restrictions and Two Sessions expectations, but these failed to provide sustained upward momentum for market sentiment. After a short-term boost, HRC prices weakened again. Returning to HRC fundamentals, HRC production continued to recover this week. However, downstream purchasing enthusiasm did not fully resume after the holiday, and traders and clients had built up certain stockpiling inventories before the holiday, leading to overall weak domestic demand.