【SMM Steel】Taiwan's China Steel Corporation is preparing to sue Indonesian hot-rolled coil exporters for dumping, as Indonesian HRC orders to Taiwan exceeded 5000 tonnes in June alone surpassing all of last year's volume. CSC called the move "pure hostility" and said it has evidence for a trade lawsuit. Meanwhile Taiwan also faces separate AD allegations from Japan over hot-rolled steel filed by Nippon Steel and others. Japan launched AD probes on June 1 covering HR and CR flat steel from China South Korea and Taiwan. Estimated dumping margins for Taiwan HRC 3-20% and CRC 2-15%. Taiwan's industry is split between counter-retaliation and negotiated settlement.

On June 1, Shagang steel mill adjusted ex-factory prices for hot-rolled steel. This adjustment was based on "Shagang's May 2026 Hot-Rolled Steel Price Adjustment Information issued on May 1." The specific adjustment details are as follows: ① The price of hot-rolled coil Q235B was raised by 100 from the previous period. The current execution price of Q235B 5.75*1500*C hot-rolled coil is 3,700 yuan/mt. The above adjustments are all tax-inclusive, effective from June 1, 2026. [SMM Steel]

[SMM Steel] Morocco has notified the World Trade Organization of its plan to extend safeguard measures on hot-rolled steel imports for another three years (Jun 2026–Jun 2029), maintaining an additional 19% tariff. The move aims to protect domestic producers from rising import pressure. The extension could weigh on Vietnamese steel exports, requiring exporters to reassess pricing strategies, cost structures, and market positioning. Industry authorities advise firms to diversify export markets and closely monitor trade remedy developments to mitigate risks.

[SMM Steel Export Special Report] Steel exports are projected to increase by 0.9% in 2026, and billets may become the main force of growth through "conflict spillover" 一Review of Steel Exports in 2025 and Forecast for 2026 Looking back at the previous text ( https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XRKfmCwJbx6eUBrgJe_xug ), SMM, now combining market research from over 50 customer questionnaires and market analysis, makes a forecast for steel exports in 2026. First, we present the conclusion: the total export volume of steel (steel products + billets) in 2026 is expected to reach 135 million tons, still showing a growth trend year-on-year, with a growth rate of 0.9%. Data sources: SMM, General Administration of Customs Forecast by Variety: Coated and Galvanized Products Continue to Top the List, While Billets Leverage "Conflict Spillover" to Catch Up Data sources: SMM, General Administration of Customs Looking back at the product mix distribution over the past 25 years, coated and plated products ranked first, followed closely by hot-rolled products and steel billets. In addition, products such as pipes and wire rods also performed quite prominently. Data source: Directly compiled from SMM's research on exporters According to the results of the SMM questionnaire survey, it can be found that the export varieties in 2026 that are more favored by exporters are mainlygalvanized steel, hot-rolled steel, and profiles. It is worth noting that silicon steel also made the list, presumably for two reasons: first, with the global power grid undergoing upgrades, the demand for orientedsilicon steelin transformers has entered a growth phase; second, as the core material for new energy vehicle motors, it is also a major source of profit for China's high-value-added exports. Based on past export data and current market analysis, SMM has estimated and predicted that the main export products in 2026 will be ① Coated and plated products (24%, with positive growth for three consecutive years), As the domestic manufacturing industry transforms towards high-end, industrial transfer, and the booming of home appliance exports, home appliance and automobile factories in regions such as Southeast Asia and North America have all entered the production stage, with rigid demand for high-quality galvanized and color-coated sheets from China. Meanwhile, compared with ordinary hot-rolled, medium and heavy plate, and other deep-processed products, coated and plated products enjoy lower anti-dumping tax rates in some countries, which is also an important means to avoid trade frictions. ② As the product with the greatest development potential this year, billets (14%) currently have obvious advantages. On the one hand, billets in China are low in price and have faced very few trade barriers to date. In the whole year of 2025, the total export volume of billets reached as high as 14.83 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 134%. According to the latest customs data compiled by SMM, the cumulative export volume of billets from January to February 2026 reached 1.7745 million tons, still achieving a year-on-year increase of 16%. On the other hand, against the backdrop of the US-Iran conflict, Iran's billet exports to Southeast Asia have nearly come to a halt, while China, with fewer overseas trade barriers for billets, will directly fill the market gap left by Iran's exit. The recent SMM Steel Export Weekly Report's research on the booming billet exports has repeatedly confirmed this situation. In summary, it is projected that billet exports will continue to maintain a high-speed growth trend in 2026, with a total volume of 19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 28%. ③ Hot-rolled (13%) , with the implementation of Vietnam's anti-circumvention measures against Chinese hot-rolled coils this year, the total volume of hot-rolled exports will continue to decline. Meanwhile, in 2025, China's total hot-rolled exports to Saudi Arabia were second only to Vietnam, but now maritime blockades, high insurance costs, and freight rates will all become obstacles to exports to the Middle East, so the outlook for hot-rolled coil exports is not optimistic. However, as the saying goes, "a starved camel is still bigger than a horse." As a necessary product of the "Made in China" machinery and equipment going global (indirect exports), its market dominance remains difficult to shake in the short term. Therefore, even though the decline is significant, its total volume ranking remains relatively high. Data Sources: SMM, General Administration of Customs Regional Forecast: Asia Seeks Change Amid Stability, Africa Mines Potential, and European and American Markets Seek Differentiated Penetration Under "Barriers" Data sources: SMM, General Administration of Customs Reviewing the 25-year steel export data by region, it is clearly evident that the Asian market has a core region and diversified other regions. Regarding the forecast for the flow in 26 years, SMM believes that the general regions will remain unchanged, but in terms of breakdown, ① the Southeast Asian market located in Asia (60%) will see a slight increase in its share in the game between the growth of billets and coated products and the decline of hot-rolled coils, but the share of the Middle East regions such as Saudi Arabia is likely to weaken due to geopolitical conflicts, while the share of the Indian market, which serves as a transit point for transportation to the Middle East, may increase. ② Africa (16%) It is still a blue ocean with huge potential. The promotion of the African Continental Free Trade Area will accelerate the housing and infrastructure building in North Africa and West Africa, and local mineral and energy projects will continue to drive the demand for mining machinery special steel. ③ South America (9%), Europe (8%), and North America (6%) are competing. Among them, under the dual-wheel drive of new infrastructure and resource development, the South American region is expected to continue to expand compared with the same period; while the European market is expected to continue to adjust steel exports to "less but better" under the strict CBAM (carbon border adjustment mechanism) implementation.North America continues to be constrained by high Section 232 tariffs and trade protectionism, and its low share is an objective reality. Data sources: SMM, General Administration of Customs The following figure shows the ranking of export regions preferred by exporters in the SMM questionnaire, which can be used as a reference. Data source: Directly compiled from SMM's research on exporters 70% of merchants are turning to "upholding integrity while seeking innovation": SMM research reveals the compound survival logic of export trade in 2026 Meanwhile, we have also conducted relevant research on the destination countries and their corresponding export varieties. As shown in the figure, the hotspots are concentrated in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, and the star products remain coated and plated products, hot-rolled products, wire rods, section steels, and steel billets. Data source: Directly compiled from SMM's research on exporters In the current context where the wave of globalization is facing headwinds and the international political and economic landscape is undergoing drastic upheaval, export trade enterprises are standing at an unprecedented crossroads. Faced with the complex external environment of supply chain fluctuations, geopolitical games, and the iteration of consumer demand, waiting for death or passive maintenance is no longer an option. According to the survey data from SMM questionnaires, nearly 70% of exporters, after reviewing their own business maps, have resolutely chosen a compound response strategy of "upholding integrity while seeking innovation": that is, on the basis of ensuring the stable operation of existing advantageous products, they are extending their reach to more forward-looking new product development and new track expansion. We must admit that in the crucible of complex situations, only by continuously iterating the product matrix and responding to the ever-changing market demands with a flexible and adaptable stance can enterprises stand firm in the storm. 二Core factors influencing steel exports in 2026 Although the forecast for the overall steel exports in 2026 is relatively optimistic, we must also pay attention to some external challenges we are currently facing. Apart from the previously mentioned Chinese export license incident, SMM believes that there are mainly three factors affecting exports this year: the first is the expectation of production restrictions (2026 is the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, and the National Development and Reform Commission has clearly stated that it will continue to implement the reduction of crude steel production); the remaining two are the EU CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) and anti-dumping cases. Below, we will provide an interpretation of these two major factors. 2026: The Inaugural Year of the "Carbon Tax" Kicks Off: With Substantive Imposition Looming, How Can China's Steel Exports to the EU Break the Deadlock? Starting from January 1, 2026, CBAM has officially concluded the transitional period of "only reporting, no payment" and entered the substantial collection phase. This mechanism is regarded as a key piece of the puzzle for the EU to achieve its "2050 Carbon neutrality" goal, with its core logic being to levy taxes equivalent to the EU's internal carbon price on high-carbon products imported into the EU, so as to eliminate the risk of "carbon leakage" and protect the competitiveness of the EU's domestic industries. Data source: SMM compiled from public information According to the latest research by SMM, most traders are currently taking a wait-and-see attitude towards steel exports to the EU region due to the issue of certificate fees. Meanwhile, to provide a buffer period for traders, the EU will not impose 100% fees in 2026, but will instead assess based on the "free allowances" of EU domestic enterprises. That is, at present, only a small portion of emissions need to pay for certificate fees, but this coefficient will decline year by year over time (reaching 0 in 2034, i.e., full fees will be charged). In summary, there is no need to be overly worried in the short term. However, due to the significant differences between China's steel production structure (dominated by long blast furnace processes) and that of the EU (where short electric furnace processes account for a relatively high proportion), the medium- to long-term impact on China's steel industry should not be underestimated. For details, please refer to the analysis in the figure below. Data sources: SMM, public information To maintain steel exports to the EU under the influence of policies, we propose the following optimization suggestions: ① Data compliance: As soon as possible, improve the full life cycle (LCA) carbon footprint accounting of export products, establish a carbon ledger that meets EU standards, and actively prepare all relevant materials. ② Product optimization: Prioritize low-carbon emission production lines (such as electric arc furnace lines with a high proportion of scrap steel) to undertake orders for export to the EU. ③ Premium transfer: Explore the brand premium of "green steel" and attempt to offset part of the carbon tariff cost through environmental premiums. ④ Layout adjustment: Focus on the production capacity layout in regions such as Southeast Asia, and evaluate the feasibility of avoiding or mitigating carbon footprint pressure through overseas bases. Break through the fog of "anti-dumping" and jump out of the trap of "pessimistic expectations" Finally, we have compiled the anti-dumping cases that have been adjudicated for the second half of 2025 and 2026. The main product categories affecting steel exports in 2026 are hot-rolled, coated, silicon steel, and medium and heavy plates, and the markets are mostly concentrated in countries such as South Korea, Brazil, Egypt, and India. Data sources: SMM, General Administration of Customs Considering that there is usually a time period of 1 to 1.5 years from case filing to ruling, we have also compiled the following table for relevant cases that may affect steel exports in 2026 in terms of market and product variety. Summary of anti-dumping cases to be implemented in 2026 Data sources: SMM, China Trade Remedy Information Network It should be noted that although there were also many new anti-dumping cases in 2025, they did not have the expected pessimistic impact on the actual total export volume for that year. Therefore, the proportion of the impact factor of this part in the SMM balance model is not large. So, even when evaluated based on the maximum impact upon implementation, there is still an expected increase in this year's actual export volume, with the growth rate of billets remaining the main driver. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. 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On April 2, the Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Decision No. 612/QD-BCT, imposing a temporary anti-circumvention tariff of up to 27.83% on certain hot-rolled steel products from China. The measure applies to specific flat-rolled steel products (alloy or non-alloy), with thicknesses of 1.2–25.4mm and widths between 1,880mm and 2,300mm, that have not been further processed beyond hot rolling.

Case Details September 18, 2025 Vietnam’s Trade Remedies Authority issued an announcement stating that, on September 10, 2025, a Vietnamese producer filed an application for an anti-circumvention investigation into HRC (Vietnamese: phẩm thép cán nóng) originating in China with a width greater than 1,880 mm and less than 2,300 mm. October 27, 2025 Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Announcement No. 3176/QD-BCT, stating that, upon application by a Vietnamese producer, it had initiated an anti-circumvention investigation in the anti-dumping case concerning HRC (Vietnamese: phẩm thép cán nóng) originating in China, to examine whether the products under investigation had been slightly modified into HRC with a width exceeding 1,880 mm and less than or equal to 2,300 mm for export to Vietnam in order to evade anti-dumping duties. The announcement took effect on the date of issuance. April 2, 2026 Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade temporarily applied anti-circumvention trade remedy measures to certain hot-rolled steel plate products originating in the People’s Republic of China. The Vietnamese tariff codes of the products under investigation are 7208.25.00, 7208.26.00, 7208.27.19, 7208.27.99, 7208.36.00, 7208.37.00, 7208.38.00, 7208.39.20, 7208.39.40, 7208.39.90, 7208.52.00, 7208.53.00, 7208.54.90, 7208.90.90, 7211.14.15, 7211.14.16, 7211.14.19, 7211.19.13, 7211.19.19, 7211.90.12, 7211.90.19, 7225.30.90, 7225.40.90, 7225.99.90, 7226.91.10, and 7226.91.90. All producers and export enterprises of the People’s Republic of China are subject to an anti-dumping duty rate of 27.83 Products not subject to the temporary anti-circumvention trade remedy measures include: hot-rolled steel plate products with carbon content (by weight) > 0.30%; hot-rolled steel plate products in coil form with thickness ≥10 mm; hot-rolled steel plate products formally excluded from the scope of anti-dumping duties pursuant to Decision No. 1959/QĐ-BCT dated July 4, 2025; and steel plate products of grades BW450, BS700MCK2, AG700, and LG700T. This decision will take effect 15 days after the date of issuance. From Anti-Dumping to Anti-Circumvention: What Changed in the Export Data? Previously, Vietnam’s anti-dumping duties on China’s hot-rolled coil products applied only to products with a width not exceeding 1,880 mm, leading many Chinese exporters to evade tariffs by “slightly adjusting” product specifications into the wider 1,880-2,300 mm range. This anti-circumvention investigation and the subsequent duty decision were intended to completely close this loophole. Under the new rules, hot-rolled steel coils with widths between 1,880 mm and 2,300 mm will also be included in the taxable scope and be subject to the same anti-dumping duty rate of 27.83 as the original products. Figure 1 Relationship Between Total HRC Exports to Vietnam and Exports of Products Involved in the Anti-Circumvention Case It can be seen that before the anti-dumping case was filed, China’s HRC exports to Vietnam mainly consisted of conventional-width coils below 1,880-2,300 mm. This was mainly because producing wide hot-rolled products above 2 meters requires special production lines, and the China steel mills capable of exporting such products were highly concentrated, mainly large steel enterprises such as Baowu, Angang, Bensteel Group, and WISCO, making them non-mainstream export products. After the preliminary anti-dumping ruling, the proportion of wide coils gradually increased. Another set of data shows the following . First, if the preliminary anti-dumping ruling is taken as the time period, China’s HRC exports to Vietnam from January to June of that year had already plunged 46 YoY to 2.3165 million mt, while exports of wide coils surged 815 YoY to 1.2964 million mt. This was also the main support for why the decline in the average exports of China’s HRC to Vietnam was not obvious during the period from the preliminary anti-dumping ruling to the filing of the anti-circumvention case. Second, if the filing of the anti-circumvention case is taken as the time period, as of December 2025 , China’s total HRC exports to Vietnam were 1.0797 million mt, with a monthly average of 529,900 mt; exports of products involved in the anti-circumvention case totaled 627,000 mt, accounting for 58.08. In other words, in an extreme scenario, the establishment of anti-circumvention measures would reduce the monthly average of China’s HRC exports to Vietnam to 226,300 mt. Furthermore, if 2026 is taken as the time period, because the market had previously expected anti-circumvention measures to be implemented in December, some export traders still conducted transactions before then, so the data for November-December 2025 cannot fully reflect the actual reduction in export volumes caused by concerns over the confirmation of anti-circumvention measures. Since the beginning of 2026, China’s total HRC exports to Vietnam were 229,700 mt, with a monthly average of 114,800 mt; exports of products involved in the anti-circumvention case totaled 131,300 mt, accounting for 57.17. In other words, in an extreme scenario, the establishment of anti-circumvention measures would reduce the monthly average of China’s HRC exports to Vietnam to 49,200 mt, representing a decline of 3,789 YoY compared with the 2025 monthly average export volume. Impact of Anti-Circumvention Measures It is thus evident that the further implementation of anti-circumvention measures will further narrow the channel for China’s hot-rolled products to be exported to Vietnam. Last year, Vietnam was still the largest market for China’s hot-rolled exports, but the export landscape may change significantly in the future as a result of this incident. For China’s export enterprises, they should seize the remaining 15-day “breathing space” and accelerate shipments of orders on hand. In the long run, they need to proactively adjust their product mix and pay more attention to export opportunities for high-end products.