This week, ferrous metals retreated after a rapid rise. At the beginning of the week, the market said that Asia had shifted to coal-fired power generation due to a natural gas supply deficit, while Indonesia would increase coal production and impose export taxes. The rise in international coal prices was transmitted to China, and coking coal and coke led the gains in ferrous metals; mid-week, the Middle East situation remained volatile, and the U.S. and Iran held differing attitudes toward war, with ferrous metals consolidating at high levels; the pullback in the second half of the week was also mainly due to the weakening of the cost-side logic, as market rumors said long-term iron ore contract negotiations had been completed, expectations for tightening iron ore supply declined, and raw materials turned into the main driver of the pullback. In the spot market, speculative trading and end-user purchase sentiment improved in the first half of the week, while rigid demand remained dominant in the second half, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Geopolitical Disruptions Coupled With Cost Support Kept Spot Stainless Steel Stable SMM News on March 27: SS futures stopped falling and rebounded. Uncertainty remained high around news related to geopolitical conflicts, and futures were still likely to maintain a fluctuating trend. As of the midday close, the quote stood at 14,395 yuan/mt. In the spot market, affected by fluctuations in SS futures, downstream transaction demand for rigid needs had been largely released at the beginning of the week. At present, the arbitrage window in futures had closed, and spot stainless steel transactions pulled back accordingly. Stainless steel mills were currently operating at losses, and with cost support, mills still showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, while spot prices mostly remained stable. The most-traded SS futures contract stopped falling and rebounded. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,355 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 165-365 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was unchanged; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt, and the average price in Foshan also fell by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, the Wuxi quote was unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The stainless steel market had now entered the traditional peak consumption season. Downstream end-user transactions remained steady, but market sentiment turned cautious. End-users lacked willingness to stockpile, and procurement was still mainly driven by restocking based on immediate needs. The brisk trading pattern typical of the peak season had not emerged, and overall demand remained stable and neutral. Futures...

Vietnamese steelmaker Hoa Phat Group has officially launched the second phase of a massive rooftop solar project at its Dung Quat steelmaking complex to enhance energy self-sufficiency and lower carbon emissions. This 22.5 MWp installation spans rolling mills, the hot-rolled coil production unit, and warehouses, generating roughly 32.8 million kWh annually. Set for full completion across five phases by the second quarter of 2027, the $22.7 million initiative will reach a total capacity of 79.2 MWp, cutting carbon emissions by more than 78,000 metric tons per year and improving the mill's export competitiveness in carbon-regulated markets like the EU.

Back to HRC fundamentals, impact from maintenance for hot-rolled products was 80,600 mt this week, down 234,300 mt WoW; impact from maintenance for hot-rolled products next week is expected at 9.34 mt, an increase of 12,800 mt from this week. Inventory-wise, destocking continued in Ningbo, Lecong, and Tangshan, while inventories in Shanghai and Zhangjiagang edged up slightly. Overall inventory was still expected to remain in a destocking trend. Attention should be paid to tomorrow's SMM weekly HRC balance. In the short term, HRC prices were still expected to fluctuate with costs, with limited momentum for further gains.

[SMM Daily Hot-Rolled Coil Trading] On March 25, the total daily trading volume of hot-rolled coil at SMM sample enterprises in four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, and Ningbo) was 14,130 mt, down 540 mt day on day, or 3.7%, up 3.97% YoY on a calendar basis, and down 10.29% YoY on a lunar calendar basis.

【SMM Steel】South Africa's ITAC issued an affirmative final AD ruling on certain flat-rolled steel from China, Japan, and Taiwan. Chinese exporters face 6.99-47.92% duties; Japan 44.95-57.23%; Taiwan 24.20%. Products are ≥600mm wide iron, non-alloy or alloy steel, including HR coils/plate, pickled & oiled, hot-rolled, or uncoated. Excludes stainless and GOES. Duties protect the SACU market from unfair pricing.