Market reports on March 3, 2026, indicate that the ongoing conflict in the Gulf region has caused a significant spike in ocean freight rates. This is particularly affecting the landed cost of iron ore and HRC (Hot Rolled Coil) for sensitive destinations. While mine-side prices remain stable, the rising cost of logistics is beginning to squeeze margins for international steel traders.

[Daily SMM Hot Rolled Coil Trading] On February 28, the combined daily trading volume of hot rolled coils for sample enterprises in four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) was 8,970 mt, up 390 mt, +4.5% MoM, -51.88% YoY, and -20.83% YoY based on the lunar calendar.

According to SMM data, in the first week after the holiday, the national social inventory of hot-rolled coil in 86 warehouses (large sample) surveyed by SMM was 5.3775 million mt, up 1.1404 million mt WoW, up 26.92% WoW, and up 31.57% YoY on a lunar calendar basis. In the first week after the holiday, the national social inventory accumulated significantly. By region, the markets with larger accumulations were south China, east China, and north China.

【SMM Steel】Jingye Group's Hot Rolled Coil Division recently completed the trial rolling of X42M line pipe steel. This product features high strength, good weldability, corrosion resistance, and excellent low-temperature impact toughness, making it suitable for oil and gas pipelines, marine engineering, and construction applications. By precisely controlling key process parameters such as heating, rolling temperature, finishing entry temperature, cooling, and coiling, the technical challenge of balancing high strength with low-temperature toughness was effectively addressed. This successful trial further enriches Jingye Group's portfolio of high value-added steel products and robustly supports its product structure upgrading efforts.

This week, the most-traded SS contract was in the doldrums. As of 10:30 AM on April 25, the SS2506 contract was quoted at 12,670 yuan/mt, down 115 yuan/mt WoW. From a macro perspective, US President Trump threatened to fire Fed Chairman Powell this week, triggering market panic, a sharp decline in US stocks, and a sell-off in US bonds, leading to a pullback in SS futures prices. However, Trump later clarified that he had no intention of firing Powell, which somewhat eased market tension. Meanwhile, Trump proposed a significant reduction in tariffs on China, signaling a de-escalation in the tariff war. US Treasury Secretary Besant also explicitly stated that "the trade war with China is unsustainable" and revealed that substantive tariff talks between China and the US are underway, with a potential short-term agreement. Multiple positive factors boosted SS futures prices, halting the decline and stabilizing them. On the fundamental side, despite the approaching Labour Day holiday, pre-holiday stockpiling demand was very sluggish, with transactions mainly concentrated in low-priced warrants, and downstream purchases remained cautious. Although social inventory of stainless steel significantly decreased this week, downstream purchasing enthusiasm remained low, increasing the distribution pressure on steel mills. Under sales pressure, Tsingshan Group lowered the prices of 201 and 304 stainless steel cold and hot rolled coils by 200 yuan/mt on Friday, further driving market prices down. Overall, due to the unmet pre-holiday stockpiling expectations, continued weak demand for stainless steel, and the disturbance of uncertain macro factors, market sentiment remains cautious. In the short term, stainless steel futures prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.

【SMM HRC Daily Trading】Futures Decline Continuously, Spot Trading Volume Continues to Fall 【SMM HRC Daily Trading】On April 8th, the combined daily trading volume of hot rolled coils (HRC) from sample enterprises in four SMM cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) totaled 9,890 mt, down 1,180 mt or -10.7% day-on-day. Futures continued to decline today, with spot prices falling by 30-50 yuan/mt. Negative sentiment still dominated the market, with only some rigid demand emerging for restocking. Other demand remained stagnant, leading to a further decrease in daily trading volume on a sequential basis.