[NBS: Home Prices in 70 Large and Medium-Sized Cities for February Released] On March 16, the NBS announced that in February 2026, overall, the MoM decline in selling prices of commercial residential housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to narrow, while prices fell YoY. The number of cities where selling prices of newly built commercial residential housing rose or remained flat MoM increased from the previous month. In first-tier cities, the selling prices of newly built commercial residential housing shifted from a 0.3% decline in the previous month to flat MoM. Among them, Beijing and Shanghai each rose 0.2%, Guangzhou was flat, and Shenzhen fell 0.3%.

[YoY Decline of 2.2% in the Selling Prices of Newly Built Commercial Residential Properties in First-Tier Cities in February] In February, the selling prices of newly built commercial residential properties in first-tier cities fell 2.2% YoY, with the decline widening by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Among them, Shanghai rose 4.2%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen fell 2.3%, 5.1%, and 5.5%, respectively. In second- and third-tier cities, the selling prices of newly built commercial residential properties fell 3.1% and 4.0% YoY, respectively, with the declines widening by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point, respectively. In February, the selling prices of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities fell 7.6% YoY, with the decline unchanged

Quzhou City, Zhejiang Province, has introduced a robust home purchase subsidy policy. Recently, departments including the Quzhou City Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau jointly issued a notice, introducing multiple measures to stabilize the real estate market, such as offering group purchase subsidies for home purchases, implementing improved home purchase subsidies for families with multiple children, deepening the integrated use of housing vouchers across the city, accelerating the improvement of the housing security system, and launching a campaign to distribute consumption vouchers for home purchases in the Smart New City. "Quzhou's new real estate policies released in mid-year mainly focus on home purchase subsidies, aiming to support housing consumption," Lu Qilin, Research Director of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, told reporters. According to the notice, individuals who subscribe to newly-built commercial residential properties in the urban area of Quzhou City (projects that have obtained their first pre-sale permits since 2021) during the 2025 real estate consumption promotion campaign will be reported by participating real estate enterprises to the corresponding housing transaction departments. The housing transaction departments in the urban area will group every 10 successful purchases (groups) and provide a group purchase subsidy of 20,000 yuan per unit to homebuyers. The group purchase subsidy is limited to 300 units and will be available for two months, or until the quota is exhausted. In terms of implementing improved home purchase subsidies for families with multiple children, starting from June 20, 2025, families with multiple children purchasing newly-built commercial residential properties in the urban area of Quzhou City (projects that have obtained their first pre-sale permits since 2021) will be eligible for improved home purchase subsidies. Specifically, families with two children who sign a "Zhejiang Province Commercial Housing Sales Contract" for a residential property with a floor area of 100 m² or more can apply for an 80,000-yuan subsidy. Families with three children who sign a "Zhejiang Province Commercial Housing Sales Contract" for a residential property with a floor area of 120 m² or more can apply for a 200,000-yuan subsidy. Subsidies will be issued in the form of housing vouchers, which can be used in conjunction with other types of housing vouchers. This policy will be implemented on a trial basis for one year. In addition, the Smart New City Management Committee, in collaboration with some real estate enterprises within its jurisdiction, has jointly launched home purchase consumption vouchers. Individuals purchasing newly-built commercial residential properties in projects participating in the consumption promotion campaign will receive a home purchase consumption voucher subsidy of 600 yuan/m² based on the floor area of the residential property with ownership rights specified in the "Zhejiang Province Commercial Housing Sales Contract" (the subsidy will be calculated based on the floor area corresponding to the additional amount paid after deducting the value of various housing vouchers from the total housing price; for trade-in scenarios, the excess amount can be subsidized after complying with the policy requirements of the implementing entity), with a maximum subsidy of 100,000 yuan per unit. This subsidy campaign will be conducted simultaneously with the 2025 city-county coordinated real estate consumption promotion campaign, and there will be no total limit on the distribution of consumption vouchers. Lu Qilin pointed out that Quzhou's current policies differ from those previously announced in other cities and possess certain innovative and referential values. Firstly, in the latest policies, the three subsidies—group purchase subsidies, home purchase subsidies for families with multiple children, and home purchase consumption subsidies—are implemented concurrently, breaking away from the traditional "single subsidy-focused" model adopted in various regions. Second, multi-child subsidies are implemented in a tiered manner, with different amounts for second and third children, and the subsidy for third children is more generous. Third, real estate developers directly subsidize homebuyers in the form of consumption vouchers, and the subsidy amounts are not low. This differs from the common model of "relying on intermediary channels with high commissions," allowing homebuyers to directly benefit while also reducing the marketing costs of real estate developers. He further stated that Quzhou's strong support for housing consumption through subsidies may be related to changes in the local market. According to data from 58 Anjuke Research Institute, the recent interest in searching for new homes in Quzhou has pulled back YoY. "It can be seen that the local government hopes to promote the 'stabilization and recovery' of the property market through subsidies." In fact, amid the backdrop of a pullback in market enthusiasm, many regions have recently introduced home purchase subsidy measures. On June 11, Yuhang District of Hangzhou City issued new property market policies, including pilot promotion of "high-quality housing" construction, optimization of housing provident fund services, and implementation of home purchase support policies. According to the latest policies, Yuhang District encourages real estate developers to carry out various activities such as home purchase sales promotions, offering certain discounts to homebuyers. From June 10, 2025, to June 30, 2025, for projects that carry out home purchase sales promotions, a subsidy of 40,000 yuan per unit will be provided to homebuying families that purchase newly built commercial residential properties in the corresponding projects after the real estate ownership certificates for the purchased properties are obtained. The total subsidy amount is 16 million yuan, and it will be distributed on a "first-come, first-served" basis according to the online contract signing time until the funds are exhausted. Yuhang District has also extended the implementation period of special home purchase subsidies. On the basis of implementing the municipal-level high-level talent (categories A-D) home purchase subsidies, high-level talents who meet the criteria (municipal-level category E, district-level category E, and above) purchasing newly built commercial residential properties in Yuhang District will be eligible for a maximum home purchase subsidy of 200,000 yuan. The policy implementation period has been extended to December 31, 2025. In addition, Chongqing issued six policies related to housing consumption on May 30, mentioning that for newly purchased commercial residential properties (with completed online contract registration and deed tax payment) in the central urban area with a single-unit floor area of over 140 m², the district government (administrative committee) where the property is located will provide a subsidy of 0.5% of the total property price. The Hefei Housing Security and Real Estate Administration Bureau issued a notice on May 29, stating that the relevant policies on home purchase subsidies in Hefei will be extended until May 14, 2026. Industry insiders pointed out that, based on the transaction situation in May this year, there are signs of a pullback in the market, and downward pressure on housing prices has emerged during the adjustment process. Various regions need policy support to further stabilize the market. "Since Q2, some new phenomena have emerged in the market, and the pressure for the property market to stabilize and recover has increased. For example, the listing volume of second-hand homes has risen rapidly, while the decline in second-hand home prices has accelerated. Meanwhile, during the implementation of "high-quality housing" projects, some newly developed projects have had a certain impact on old planned projects and second-hand homes, making it difficult for some projects to sell. " said Li Yujia, Chief Researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center. According to monitoring data from E-house China Research Institute, in May this year, the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing nationwide were 71 million m² and 0.71 trillion yuan, respectively. Although they increased by 10.3% and 13.1% MoM from April, they decreased by 3.3% and 6% YoY, respectively. "Looking at a longer timeframe, the monthly sales area was the lowest for the same period since 2011, and the monthly sales volume reached the lowest for the same period since 2016," said an analyst from E-house China Research Institute. Chen Wenjing, Director of Policy Research at the China Index Academy, pointed out that the State Council executive meeting on June 13 set the tone to "drive the real estate market to stabilize and recover with greater force," sending a positive signal of further policy intensification that will have a positive impact on the market. "The top leadership has clarified four key areas for policy efforts going forward: stabilizing expectations, activating demand, optimizing supply, and mitigating risks. The implementation and follow-up of these policies are expected to be crucial in promoting the market to 'stabilize and recover,'" Chen Wenjing added.

The latest data shows that the number of cities experiencing a MoM decline in housing prices increased in May, indicating that the market is once again showing signs of adjustment. According to the housing price data for 70 cities nationwide released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on June 16, in May 2025, the number of cities with a MoM increase in new home prices was 13, a decrease of 9 cities from the previous month; the number of cities with a decline was 53, an increase of 8 cities from the previous month. For second-hand home prices, 3 cities saw a MoM increase, a decrease of 2 cities from the previous month; 67 cities experienced a decline, an increase of 3 cities from the previous month. "Overall, policies aimed at promoting the stabilization of the real estate market have continued to show effectiveness, and the real estate market operated relatively smoothly in May. However, it should be noted that the real estate market is still in the process of adjustment, market confidence needs to be continuously restored, and the supply-demand relationship in the market still needs improvement. Continuous efforts are required to promote the stabilization of the real estate market," said Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the NBS and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of National Economy, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office. For new homes, the MoM decline in the new residential housing price index for 70 cities nationwide was 0.2% in May, slightly wider than the previous month. Specifically, in first-tier cities, the MoM new home sales price changed from flat in the previous month to a decline of 0.2% in May; in second-tier cities, the MoM sales price of new residential homes changed from flat in the previous month to a decline of 0.2%; in third-tier cities, the MoM sales price of new residential homes declined by 0.3%, with the decline widening by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 13 cities with rising housing prices, the top 5 cities in terms of housing price index increases were Hangzhou, Shanghai, Nanning, Urumqi, and Shenyang. Among them, Hangzhou led the gains among the 70 cities with a 0.8% increase. Shanghai was the only first-tier city where new home prices rose against the trend, with an increase of 0.7%, second only to Hangzhou; the other three first-tier cities, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, saw housing prices pull back by 0.4%, 0.8%, and 0.4%, respectively. "The MoM increase in Shanghai's new home prices is attributed to the concentrated launch of high-end properties in the market, attracting significant attention from high-net-worth individuals, thereby boosting market enthusiasm and raising the overall average price of Shanghai's new home market. Hangzhou stood out among second-tier cities, with a heated land market driving up interest in property searches in surrounding areas and injecting strong confidence into the real estate market," said Zhang Bo, president of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute. Compared to the new home market, the second-hand home market faced more pronounced pressure. Data showed that the MoM decline in the price index for 70 cities was 0.5% in May. Among them, the MoM decline in the second-hand residential housing price index for first-tier cities was 0.7%, widening by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing declines of 0.8%, 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.5%, respectively. In second- and third-tier cities, the selling prices of second-hand residential properties both declined by 0.5% MoM, with the rate of decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points each. "It has become commonplace for second-hand housing to adopt a volume discount strategy. Compared to April, although the number of cities where second-hand housing prices have fallen has increased, it should also be noted that this has led to a rise in home-search enthusiasm and an increase in trading volume," said Zhang Bo. According to the 58 Anjuke Leading Index, the home-search enthusiasm diffusion index rose by 0.14 points MoM in May 2025, indicating a decrease in the number of cities with declining enthusiasm and an increase in the number of cities with rebounding enthusiasm. Analysts believe this serves as a key improvement signal for the market to begin experiencing a price and volume correction in June. Meanwhile, the diffusion index for the duration of listed properties decreased from 0.5 to 0.38, indicating that the duration of listed properties in most cities has shortened and the de-stocking speed has accelerated. In Zhang Bo's view, this change mainly stems from two aspects: firstly, the recovery in home-search demand has improved the matching efficiency between buyers and sellers; secondly, real estate agents are promoting price reductions for high-value properties to facilitate transactions. It is worth noting that the market expects more substantial policy support. The State Council Executive Meeting held on June 13 proposed to "drive the real estate market to stabilize and rebound with greater force." Industry insiders believe this sends a strong signal to the market to further stabilize the housing sector. The meeting pointed out the need to steadily and forcefully promote the construction of "quality housing," incorporate it into the urban renewal mechanism to strengthen work coordination, and provide policy support in areas such as planning, land, finance, and banking. It is necessary to conduct a comprehensive survey of the land already supplied and ongoing real estate projects nationwide, further optimize existing policies, enhance the systematic and effective implementation of policies, and adopt a multi-pronged approach to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks, thereby driving the real estate market to stabilize and rebound with greater force. "The statement at this State Council Executive Meeting about 'driving the real estate market to stabilize and rebound with greater force,' with stronger wording, implies that more targeted incremental measures may be on the way," said Chen Shen, an analyst at Huatai Securities. He further pointed out that the policy ideas of "conducting a comprehensive survey, optimizing, and adopting a multi-pronged approach" proposed at this State Council Executive Meeting are noteworthy. Among them, conducting a comprehensive survey of the land already supplied and ongoing projects nationwide aims to clarify key issues such as land idleness, providing data support for subsequently revitalizing stock resources through means such as acquisition and storage, and optimizing the rhythm of land supply. Secondly, promoting the construction of "quality housing" and incorporating it into the urban renewal system is a way to activate demand by optimizing supply. Meanwhile, exerting comprehensive efforts in areas such as planning, land, finance, and banking emphasizes enhancing the systematic and effective implementation of existing policies to boost market confidence. Yuan Hao, an analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan, also believes that although the total transaction volume of China's new and second-hand housing markets has remained relatively stable for nearly three years, the current volume and price have not yet fully entered a positive cycle. Therefore, it is expected that there is still a possibility of increasing policy support in the future. "The recent statement on halting the decline and stabilizing the real estate market has been adjusted from 'continuously consolidating' to 'greater efforts,' indicating that 'halting the decline and stabilizing' remains the main policy tone. It is expected that a new round of supportive policies may be introduced, which may include an interest rate cut on home loans, increasing the supply of high-quality housing, optimizing acquisition and storage, and advancing urban renewal projects," Yuan Hao said.

On Monday local time, a survey released by the New York Fed showed that as the tariff war cooled down, US consumers' concerns about inflation eased in May. Specifically, the Survey of Consumer Expectations in May indicated that the one-year inflation expectation was 3.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from a month earlier; the three-year inflation expectation fell from 3.2% in April to 3%; and the five-year inflation expectation dropped from 2.7% to 2.6%. Although these figures remain above the US Fed's annual inflation target of 2%, the changes in these indicators are moving in a positive direction and reflect a shift in the fear sentiment that had previously arisen from Trump's wielding of the tariff stick. In early April, Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports and a series of so-called reciprocal tariffs on dozens of trading partners. Faced with severe market volatility in financial markets, he then announced a postponement of the reciprocal tariff measures. US Fed officials closely monitor the trend of inflation expectations, as they believe that the public's expectations about inflation can have a strong impact on current levels. If people expect higher prices in the future, they may increase spending now and even demand higher wages. The Fed has repeatedly stated that the relative stability of long-term expectations is one reason they believe inflation will return to the target level. Compared with the survey results from the University of Michigan and the Conference Board, the New York Fed's survey results are less volatile. This survey brought some good news to the White House at a time when US government officials are trying to ease concerns about tariff-induced inflation. Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said on Monday that, based on every inflation indicator, the decline exceeded the levels seen in more than four years. "Despite the increase in tariff revenue, inflation is declining, which contradicts what others have been saying but aligns closely with what we have been saying." However, economists generally expect that high tariffs will lead to higher prices for consumers while dampening employment and economic growth. The main question is whether these price increases will be one-time events or have lasting impacts. Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Whisperer," commented that the New York Fed's inflation expectations for May unexpectedly declined, although uncertainty about medium-term inflation expectations remains high. In addition, the survey also showed that consumers believe there is a lower likelihood of unemployment rising next year and that they will have more opportunities to find work if they themselves become unemployed. In May, consumers became more optimistic about their personal financial situations, including a slight improvement in access to credit and a decrease in the likelihood of debt delinquency. However, a report on Monday revealed that one pain point for consumers still persists: grocery store operations. Consumers expect food prices to rise by 0.4 percentage points to 5.5% next year, the highest level since October 2023. Meanwhile, the expected increase in home prices in May was 3%, down from 3.3% in April.

During this year's Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the performance of the new home market varied. Data released by Centaline Property on June 3 showed that a total of 46,100 m² of newly built commercial residential properties were sold in Shanghai during this year's Dragon Boat Festival holiday (5.31-6.2), up 87.4% YoY. "According to our monitored data, over 100 projects in Shanghai recorded sales contracts during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Most projects had single-digit sales, but there were still some popular projects with significant sales volumes. Among these, some high-quality projects, due to their large sales volumes, drove up the transaction data," said Lu Wenxi, Senior Research Manager at Centaline Property. In Wuhan, data released by the China Index Academy today showed that 571 newly built commercial residential properties were registered online in Wuhan during this year's Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with a registered area of 64,900 m², an increase of 26% compared to the holiday last year. It is understood that the increase in transaction volume in Wuhan during this year's Dragon Boat Festival holiday was mainly due to developers seizing the holiday opportunity to increase their marketing efforts and launch new projects. Many projects obtained sales permits and were launched before the holiday. Projects with good sales performance were mostly newly planned projects with significant product advantages, leading to better sales. In Shenzhen, according to statistics from the Shenzhen Centaline Research Center, during this year's Dragon Boat Festival holiday (5.31-6.2), 194 new residential properties (including both existing and pre-sale properties) were sold in Shenzhen, including 167 pre-sale new residential properties, down 23.4% compared to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday last year; 97 second-hand residential properties were sold, up 32.9% YoY. Meng Xinzeng, Senior Analyst at the China Index Academy, introduced that during this year's Dragon Boat Festival holiday, some projects in certain cities did perform well. However, overall, although most cities continued their previous sales promotions, the market performance remained relatively mediocre. He stated that, based on the market transaction situation in May, the MoM price increase of new homes in 100 cities expanded, while the second-hand home market continued the trend of "volume discount." According to data monitored by the China Index Academy, in May 2025, the average price of newly built residential properties in 100 cities nationwide was 16,815 yuan/m², up 0.30% MoM, with the increase expanding by 0.16 percentage points compared to April, and up 2.56% YoY. Several industry insiders told reporters that the increase in average prices was somewhat related to the driving factors of the transaction structure. "The active performance of improved housing projects has driven the continued increase in average prices in May, especially in first-tier cities, where the increase was more pronounced. Among these, first-tier cities saw a 0.9% MoM increase, with the growth rate rising by 0.53 percentage points compared to the previous month. At the same time, it should be noted that second-tier cities only saw a slight 0.06% MoM increase, a decrease from the 0.1% increase in the previous month, while third- and fourth-tier cities continued to see MoM declines."Li Yujia, the chief researcher at the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, said. Regarding this phenomenon, the president of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute told reporters that, from the supply side, mid-year is typically an important period for property sales. Developers tend to accelerate the launch of new projects in high-tier cities, and the increase in the supply of high-quality properties has become a significant force driving up market transaction activity. "Many real estate enterprises are currently betting on 'high-end improvement properties,' leading to a concentrated entry of high-quality projects in core cities. Additionally, the heat in the land market in core cities also spills over into the new home market. Cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou have all auctioned off plots with high total and unit prices. In particular, Hangzhou's overall premium rate significantly outpaces other cities, which has also played a role in boosting market enthusiasm and expectations," Zhang Bo said in an interview with reporters. Industry insiders pointed out that while projects in prime locations in some high-tier cities are selling well, it should also be noted that the MoM decline in second-hand housing prices widened in May, with varying degrees of pullbacks observed across all tier cities. Data from the China Index Academy showed that in May 2025, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,794 yuan/m², down 0.71% MoM, with the decline widening by 0.02 percentage points compared to March; it was down 7.24% YoY. Li Yujia introduced that since April, the listing volume of second-hand homes has continued to increase, particularly with a rise in the listing volume of large-sized units in the market. "The increase in replacement demand among some homeowners has led to a growth in the listing volume. The entry of improved new properties into the market has become more pronounced in competition with existing homes. Coupled with an increase in homeowners willing to sell at a discount, this has resulted in a more noticeable adjustment in second-hand home prices," Li Yujia said. In response, Zhang Bo also pointed out that due to policy adjustments in the new home market and concessions from developers, some homebuyers may shift to the new home market, intensifying competition in the second-hand home market. He predicts that if the listing volume of second-hand homes continues to increase, it may force second-hand home prices to continue to pull back. "From the perspective of the second-hand home market, due to factors such as land scarcity, large population inflows, and high levels of economic development in the core areas of hot cities, home prices are expected to remain relatively stable. Some scarce properties with location advantages may even see a slight rise. However, properties without unique location or resource advantages will face market competition pressures. For some small and medium-sized cities with large inventories, the destocking pressure in the second-hand home market remains significant, and it is still necessary to continue promoting transactions through measures such as price reductions," Zhang Bo added. Meng Xinzeng also believes that after the school district demand for second-hand homes has been released in stages, transactions are expected to gradually stabilize by mid-year. Under the influence of high listing volumes, "volume discount" will remain the mainstream in the second-hand home market in the short term.