In April 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% YoY. Among them, urban areas rose 1.2% and rural areas rose 1.0%; food prices fell 1.6% and non-food prices rose 1.8%; consumer goods prices rose 1.4% and service prices rose 0.9%. On average from January to April, the national CPI rose 0.9% compared with the same period of the previous year.

[SMM Brass Billet News Flash] According to SMM, China's copper billet industry is expected to gradually enter the traditional consumption off-season in May. Downstream demand from sectors such as refrigeration and home appliances is expected to weaken further, and orders from traditional markets such as sanitary ware and hardware are unlikely to see significant improvement.

SMM May 9 News: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market saw base metals mostly decline. SHFE copper rose 0.53%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.16%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. SHFE zinc fell 1.19%. SHFE tin fell 1.13%. SHFE nickel fell 0.67%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.37%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.24%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was flat at 816.5 yuan/mt, stainless steel fell 1.05%, rebar edged up slightly, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.14%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.39%, and coke fell 0.43%. Last Friday's overnight overseas metals showed mixed performance among LME base metals. LME copper rose 1.59%. LME aluminum rose 0.34%, and LME lead was flat at $1,977.5/mt. LME zinc fell 0.17%. LME tin fell 1.26%. LME nickel fell 0.89%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.27%, posting a weekly gain of 1.71%; COMEX silver rose 0.82%, gaining 5.76% for the week. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold most-traded contract fell 0.21%, with a weekly gain of 3.24%; SHFE silver most-traded contract rose 0.09%, with SHFE silver gaining 11.4% for the week. As of 8:39 AM on May 9, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Li Qiang Chaired State Council Executive Meeting: Advancing Local Government Debt Risk Resolution and Strengthening Full-Chain Management of Mineral Resources] State Council Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting on May 9, studying and implementing the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speeches on the current economic situation and economic work, as well as at the symposium on strengthening basic research. The meeting noted that efforts should be made to align thinking and actions with the CPC Central Committee's scientific assessment of the situation, further bolster confidence, seize opportunities amid changes, drive development through overcoming challenges, consolidate and expand the momentum of steady and positive economic growth, and strive for a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Macro policies should focus on being fully and effectively utilized, maintaining proactive implementation, and continuously improving execution efficiency. Strengthening the domestic economic circulation should seek breakthroughs in coordinated supply-demand alignment and integrated upgrading, implementing and improving measures to expand capacity and enhance quality in the service sector, and strengthening the planning and construction of water networks, new-type power grids, computing power networks, next-generation communication networks, urban underground pipeline networks, and logistics networks . Social welfare efforts should focus more on stabilizing employment and ensuring basic needs, and doing well in education, healthcare, childcare, agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. Greater efforts and more concrete measures should be taken to strengthen basic research, placing basic research high on the agenda. In light of the country's urgent needs and long-term demands, the main directions and key areas of focus should be identified, investment should be increased through multiple measures, and efforts should be made to foster a sound research ecosystem. Risks and challenges should be addressed effectively, with continued efforts to defuse risks in areas such as real estate, local government debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions. Safety production responsibilities of all parties should be closely monitored and enforced to resolutely prevent major and serious accidents. ( Xinhua News Agency ) [General Administration of Customs: In the first 4 months, China's goods trade imports and exports grew 14.9%, with electromechanical product exports up 17.6%] According to customs statistics, in the first 4 months of 2026, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 16.23 trillion yuan, up 14.9% YoY (the same hereinafter). Of this, exports totaled 9.33 trillion yuan, up 11.3%; imports totaled 6.9 trillion yuan, up 20%. In April, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 4.38 trillion yuan, up 14.2%. Of this, exports totaled 2.48 trillion yuan, up 9.8%; imports totaled 1.9 trillion yuan, up 20.6%. [Four departments: Exploring direct connection of nuclear power, hydrogen energy and other energy sources to supply computing facilities, and continuously increasing the share of green electricity in computing facilities] The Plan proposes enhancing the diversified power supply capacity of computing facilities. Based on actual conditions such as the scale of computing facility grid connections, power grid voltage levels, power grid new energy penetration rates, power quality requirements, and computing facility business types, standards for energy supply planning and construction of computing facilities are to be established and improved. The use of nuclear power, hydrogen energy, and other energy sources to supply computing facilities through direct connections is to be explored. Computing facilities are encouraged to deploy grid-forming ESS to enhance power supply stability and active support capability for the power system. [Three departments issue the Implementation Opinions on Standardized Application and Innovative Development of AI Agents] The Cyberspace Administration of China, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the Implementation Opinions on Standardized Application and Innovative Development of AI Agents. The Implementation Opinions specify that the development of AI agents should adhere to the basic principles of safety and controllability, standardization and orderliness, innovation-driven development, and application-led guidance, and put forward measures in four areas: first, consolidating the development foundation by improving the technology base and establishing standards and protocols; second, safeguarding the security baseline by defining product guidelines, preventing security risks, improving the governance system, and strengthening industry self-discipline; third, strengthening application-led guidance by proposing 19 typical application scenarios in areas such as scientific research, industrial development, consumption stimulation, people's well-being, and social governance. Fourth, building an innovative ecosystem, promoting industrial cooperation, and strengthening application promotion. [ China's April Warehousing Index Remained in Expansion Territory, with the Warehousing Industry Continuing a Stable and Positive Trend ] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the April China Warehousing Index today (May 9). The index continued to stay in expansion territory, with the warehousing industry maintaining a stable and positive trend. The April China Warehousing Index was 51%, remaining in expansion territory for two consecutive months. In terms of sub-indices, the new orders index, facility utilization rate index, and end-of-period inventory index remained in expansion territory, while the average inventory turnover index maintained a relatively high level, indicating steady growth in warehousing business demand, good cargo turnover efficiency, and smooth supply chain connectivity. By category, the peak production and construction season drove a rebound in warehousing demand for bulk commodities such as chemicals, coal, and machinery equipment, while Labour Day holiday stockpiling boosted notable growth in warehousing demand for consumer goods such as food, home appliances, and agricultural by-products. In terms of market expectations, the April business activity expectations index was 55.1%, remaining at a relatively high level, reflecting enterprises' continued optimism. Overall, the warehousing industry operated steadily in April, market vitality continued to be released, and Q2 got off to a good start. (CCTV) [ Shanghai Shipping Exchange: Geopolitical Situation Stabilizing, Freight Rates Rising on Most Routes ] The Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) weekly report stated that the current military conflict in the Middle East continued to maintain a ceasefire, with the geopolitical situation relatively stable, though the future situation still faced significant uncertainty. This week, China's export container shipping market remained stable, with freight rates on most routes edging up, driving the composite index higher. On May 8, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index stood at 1954.21 points, up 2.2% from the previous period. US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index fell 0.43% to 97.86. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index declined for two consecutive weeks, down 0.36% for the week. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that April non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000, marking the first consecutive growth in nearly a year and the largest two-month gain since 2024, far exceeding the Bloomberg survey median economist forecast of 65,000. March data was also revised up to 185,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, in line with expectations. (Wallstreetcn) "US Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: An increasing number of sell-side institutions and US Fed watchers are removing or delaying interest rate cut expectations from their outlooks, including several forecasters who made adjustments following the release of the April non-farm payrolls data. Currently, half of the respondents believe there will be no interest rate cut this year (given the inertial nature of such forecasts, this camp is likely to continue growing). In addition, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that all rate options are currently on the table, not just rate cuts. At the end of April, the US Fed kept rates unchanged, with three officials opposing language in the statement that hinted the next move could be a rate cut, arguing that the possibility of a rate hike should be preserved. Goolsbee's remarks reflected a shift among US Fed policymakers — moving away from considering near-term rate cuts, primarily because the energy price shock triggered by the Iran war pushed up inflation. He reiterated that both rate cuts and rate hikes are on the table and expressed anxiety about inflation, noting that price pressures exist beyond the energy shock. (Jin10 Data) As consumers worried about the impact of inflation on personal finances and buying conditions, US consumer confidence fell to a new all-time low in recent weeks. University of Michigan data showed that the preliminary May consumer sentiment index fell from 49.8 in April to 48.2. Consumers expected prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.5% over the next year, a slight pullback MoM; longer-term inflation expectations for the next 5 to 10 years stood at 3.4%. As Americans grew anxious about overall living costs, compounded by a sharp rise in gasoline prices, consumer confidence remained subdued. American Automobile Association (AAA) data showed that the average US gasoline price this week surpassed $4.50 per gallon for the first time since July 2022, having risen more than 50% since the outbreak of the Iran war. Survey director Joanne Hsu stated: "About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices, and about 30% mentioned tariff issues. Overall, consumers still feel the impact of cost pressure, with the primary driver being surging prices at the pump." The preliminary May current conditions index fell to 47.8, a record low; the expectations index rebounded for the first time since January. Consumers' assessment of their current financial situation dropped to the lowest level since 2009, and the buying conditions indicator also fell to a five-month low. (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include China April CPI YoY, China April PPI YoY, US April existing home sales annualized, Germany April CPI MoM final, Germany May ZEW economic sentiment index, Eurozone May ZEW economic sentiment index, US April NFIB small business confidence index, US ADP employment weekly change for the week ending April 25, US April non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, US April seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US April seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US April non-seasonally adjusted core CPI YoY, Japan March trade balance, France Q1 ILO unemployment rate, France April CPI MoM final, Eurozone Q1 GDP YoY revised, Eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final, Eurozone March industrial output MoM, US April PPI YoY, US April PPI MoM, UK Q1 GDP YoY preliminary, UK March three-month GDP MoM, UK March manufacturing output MoM, Canada March wholesale sales MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9, US April retail sales MoM, US April import price index MoM, US May New York Fed manufacturing index, US April industrial output MoM, and China April total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), among others. In addition, other events to watch this week included: US Treasury Secretary Bessent's visit to Japan to meet with the Japanese Prime Minister, the Bank of Japan Governor, and the Finance Minister; the Bank of Japan's release of the Summary of Opinions from its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a panel discussion on monetary policy; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee attending a Q&A session hosted by a local chamber of commerce; 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins delivering a speech at the Boston Economic Club; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in a discussion hosted by a local chamber of commerce; the Bank of Canada releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes; 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan participating in a dialogue on the energy sector; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivering opening remarks at an online discussion on central bank independence; US Fed Governor Barr delivering a speech; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a discussion; and the National Energy Administration releasing national electricity consumption data around the 15th of the month. Crude oil: Last Friday overnight, both oil futures moved sideways, with WTI down 0.14% and Brent up 0.19%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 7.12% for the week, while Brent fell 7.32%. Middle East conflicts resurfaced, and market concerns over the fragility of ceasefire agreements persisted. According to CMG reporters on May 8, ship-tracking data showed that as of the morning of May 8 local time, no large vessels had transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. This reportedly marked the second consecutive day since May 7 with no large commercial ships passing through the strait. (CCTV) US energy services company Baker Hughes stated in its closely watched report that US energy enterprises increased oil and natural gas rig counts for the third consecutive week, marking the first three-week streak of increases since early February. Data showed that for the week ending May 8, the total US oil and natural gas rig count—a leading indicator of future production—increased by 1 to 548, the highest since early April. (Webstock Inc.) According to foreign media reports, sources said that since shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, enterprises such as Saudi Aramco's trading arm (Aramco Trading) and UAE national oil company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) had continued to transport crude oil cargoes through the strait. Although current shipment volumes represented only a fraction of what flowed before Iran closed this oil route nearly 10 weeks ago, the actions of both companies served as a reminder to the market that some supply could still reach global markets. According to sources, Adnoc was among the first companies to attempt shipping crude oil, fuel, and natural gas cargoes out through the strait. The company supplied Upper Zakum crude to clients, a grade typically loaded at Zirku Island, but in this case delivered in Fujairah waters outside the Persian Gulf. According to Vortexa data, at the end of April, a very large crude carrier (VLCC) loaded with Abu Dhabi crude turned off its transponder and sailed out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data showed that as of Thursday, another VLCC, Fujairah Energy, remained anchored in waters near Abu Dhabi, carrying half a cargo of crude obtained from Zirku Island via ship-to-ship transfer. A charter agreement indicated that the vessel had been temporarily chartered by Adnoc, with plans to load crude between May 15 and 17 for delivery to Asia. (Jin10 Data) Citi stated that the current base case scenario projects Brent crude oil prices to average $110 in Q2 2026, then decline to $95 in Q3 and $80 in Q4. Fitch expects Brent crude prices to remain at $100–110 per barrel during the Strait of Hormuz blockade from May to July, before pulling back to $70 per barrel by September. Additionally, JPMorgan analysts said US gasoline prices "could very well" rise to $5 per gallon, as refineries are prioritizing jet fuel production at the expense of other products. The analyst team noted in a Friday report that in Asia, the region currently hardest hit by the energy crisis, the price shock triggered by the Iran war is transmitting significantly faster through refined product markets such as jet fuel and diesel than through the crude oil market. If refinery operations continue to be constrained by limited crude supply, fuel prices could become "the primary transmission channel for demand destruction." "In this scenario, even if refined product crack spreads widen significantly, crude prices could still stabilize around $100 per barrel. At that point, the next phase of the shock would look less like a traditional crude oil price spike and more like a refining and end-user fuel supply crisis." The product most visibly impacted currently is jet fuel, which is prompting refineries to maximize jet fuel output as much as possible, typically at the cost of reduced diesel production. The knock-on effects have also spread to gasoline production. Analysts said: "This perhaps explains why US gasoline prices have already risen to $4.55 per gallon, and why the risk of gasoline prices reaching $5 can no longer be ignored." (Jin10 Data) Recommended Reading:

The minutes of Tianhe Magnetics' investor briefing held on May 7 showed: 1. What is the trend in the revenue share of the NEV business, and how is the recovery in wind power, consumer electronics, and other segments? Tianhe Magnetics responded: Hello, thank you for your attention! The company's products are widely used in NEVs and parts, wind power, energy-efficient home appliances, consumer electronics, and other fields. Its clients are all industry leaders, and the company has been deeply integrated into the core supply chains of top-tier players in and outside China. During the reporting period, NEVs and parts remained the downstream segment with the highest share; wind power and consumer electronics segments recovered and grew YoY. The company adheres to a diversified strategy, deepens strategic cooperation with clients, strengthens client loyalty, and continues to expand downstream applications to support steady business growth. 2. What is the specific progress of "small-batch delivery" of dedicated magnets for humanoid robots, and what is the expected revenue contribution? Tianhe Magnetics responded: Hello, thank you for your attention! In the humanoid robot field, the company works closely with relevant clients to jointly conduct R&D and trial production of related projects. The specific revenue contribution is directly linked to the promotion and application progress of humanoid robots. 3. Against the backdrop of tightening rare earth export controls, how can the sustainability of the 44% ex-China business be ensured? Tianhe Magnetics responded: Hello, thank you for your attention! The company coordinates and obtains export licenses from the Ministry of Commerce in an orderly manner based on client orders to ensure the smooth and sustained operation of its export business. At the same time, the company actively expands markets outside China, deepens engagement with existing clients and develops new clients, increases efforts in developing zero-heavy-rare-earth products, and scales up product exports to ensure steady growth in ex-China performance. Tianhe Magnetics' Q1 2026 report disclosed on April 28 showed: the company achieved total operating revenue of 594 million yuan, up 13.12% YoY; net profit attributable to the parent company was 47.873 million yuan, up 33.41% YoY. Tianhe Magnetics' Q1 report showed: raw material prices remained at high levels, and selling prices of some sales orders were raised, which in turn affected related profit indicators. Tianhe Magnetics' annual report showed: 2025 was the inaugural year of Tianhe Magnetics' entry into the capital market, and the company embarked on a new phase of high-quality development. Positioned at the forefront of the industry, amid the trend of high-end, intelligent, and green development in the rare earth industry, the company anchored on technological innovation and intelligent management as its core, deepened collaborative partnerships with clients, continuously optimized its supply chain layout, steadily released capacity from IPO-funded projects, and progressively implemented automated production line upgrades and green process improvements. Meanwhile, the company actively expanded its product portfolio and industrial reach into injection-molded magnets, bonded magnets, and magnetic assemblies to provide clients with comprehensive rare earth permanent magnet solutions. In addition, the company accelerated its positioning in emerging sectors such as humanoid robots and the low-altitude economy to build momentum for long-term growth. In 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.346 billion yuan, down 9.47% YoY, total profit of 170.908 million yuan, up 18.81% YoY, and net profit of 161.161 million yuan, up 18.43% YoY. In its annual report, when introducing its main business, products, and application fields, Tianhe Magnetics stated: The company is a leading high performance rare earth permanent magnet material provider in China. With the corporate vision of "being a leader in permanent magnet material innovation," the company is primarily engaged in the R&D, production, and sales of high performance rare earth permanent magnet materials such as sintered NdFeB and sintered SmCo, while extending its industrial reach into injection-molded magnets, bonded magnets, and magnetic assemblies to provide clients with comprehensive rare earth permanent magnet solutions. With independent R&D and technological innovation at its core, and guided by the application scenarios and development needs of downstream cutting-edge fields such as NEVs and auto parts, wind power generation, intelligent manufacturing, and 3C consumer electronics, as well as emerging industries such as humanoid robots and the low-altitude economy, the company effectively leverages the fundamental and pioneering role of rare earth permanent magnets as key strategic materials, continuously advancing the innovation and application of high performance, resource-efficient rare earth permanent magnet materials to drive downstream technological innovation, product upgrades, and industrial transformation. Regarding the company's business plan, Tianhe Magnetics stated in its annual report: 2026 is the second year since Tianhe Magnetics' listing and the opening year of the 15th Five-Year Plan. Standing at a new starting point, the company adopts "innovation" as its annual development theme, upholds the philosophy of "breaking conventions and embracing change," and continues to deepen its presence in the high performance rare earth permanent magnet material field. Leveraging its two rare earth bases in Baotou, the company plans to focus on core technology upgrades and high-end market expansion both in and outside China, seize the strategic opportunities of the global energy transition and intelligent development, and drive "development" through "innovation." Under the leadership of the board of directors, the company plans to further integrate resources, leverage its strengths, and systematically advance various initiatives around its business objectives to ensure high-quality and sustainable development. In 2026, the company plans to focus on the following initiatives: 1. With "innovation" at the core, continuously strengthen R&D investment and drive product and technology upgrades. 2. Pursue new frontiers: focus on expanding new products, new clients, and new markets. 3. Continuously strengthen production and quality management to improve yield and turnover efficiency. 4. Deepen the construction of digital smart factories to continuously enhance production efficiency. 5. Steadily advance IPO-funded and new project construction to expand capacity and support performance growth. (1) Continue to advance IPO-funded project construction. In 2026, the company plans to continue advancing the implementation of IPO-funded projects as planned. Upon full production, the company will reach an annual capacity of 12,300 mt. The company plans to continuously improve manufacturing efficiency through automated production line upgrades, digital management system deployment, and green production process transformation, ensuring capacity alignment across all stages from blank production to finished product inspection, and laying a solid foundation for performance growth. (2) Advance the Tianhe New Materials project construction. The Phase I of the "Tianhe New Materials Rare Earth Zero-Carbon Industrial Park (High Performance Rare Earth Permanent Magnets and Assemblies, Equipment Manufacturing and R&D Project)" invested and constructed by the company's subsidiary Tianhe New Materials has been launched. Upon completion, the project will further expand the business scale and enhance the company's overall profitability, market competitiveness, and risk resilience. 6. Enhance intelligent equipment manufacturing capabilities and cultivate new growth drivers. 7. Management empowerment: continuously strengthen organizational and talent development. 8. Continue to improve ESG efforts and promote sustainable development. 9. Strengthen investor relations and market capitalization management to drive sustained enhancement of company value. When disclosing the risk of raw material price fluctuations, Tianhe Magnetics stated: The main raw materials required for the company's production are rare earth metals, which are relatively expensive and subject to notable fluctuations due to multiple factors including macro economy, trade environment, industrial policies, and market supply and demand. Although rare earth permanent magnet material enterprises can dynamically adjust product selling prices based on factors such as raw material price changes, some existing order prices are locked in, and price adjustments for new orders also involve negotiation cycles, so product price adjustments typically lag behind raw material price fluctuations. If raw material prices continue to swing wildly in the future and the company fails to respond in a timely and effective manner, it may adversely affect business performance. Countermeasures: To address this risk, the company continuously strengthens supply chain management, signs long-term agreements with major suppliers to establish stable partnerships, and implements a scientific raw material reserve strategy to smooth out the impact of price fluctuations. A review of the 2025 price performance of Pr-Nd alloy, a key raw material for NdFeB, showed: the average price of Pr-Nd alloy on December 31, 2025 was 735,000 yuan/mt, up 50.31% compared with its average price of 489,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2024. The annual daily average price of Pr-Nd alloy in 2025 was 602,181.07 yuan/mt, up 117,476.52 yuan/mt or 24.24% YoY compared with the annual daily average price of 484,704.55 yuan/mt in 2024. A review of the price trend of Pr-Nd alloy in Q1 this year showed: the average price of Pr-Nd alloy on March 31 this year was 880,000 yuan/mt, up 145,000 yuan/mt or 19.73% compared with its average price of 735,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2025. The daily average price of Pr-Nd alloy in Q1 this year was 913,035.71 yuan/mt, up 385,018.17 yuan/mt or 72.92% compared with the Q1 2025 daily average price of 528,017.54 yuan/mt. On May 8, the price of Pr-Nd alloy was 925,000–930,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 927,500 yuan/mt, down 0.8% from the previous trading day. Currently, rare earth market prices continue to weaken. Pr-Nd market, downstream purchasing inquiries showed no improvement, and suppliers of oxides maintained a low-price selling strategy to facilitate shipments. However, Pr-Nd oxide futures prices recovered somewhat on the morning of May 8, narrowing the price decline of Pr-Nd oxide. Metal market, constrained by sluggish downstream inquiries, factories showed limited willingness to actively quote, and some suppliers chose to continue lowering their offers. However, as the decline in spot oxide prices narrowed, the actual decline in Pr-Nd alloy prices also narrowed. Nevertheless, downstream wait-and-see sentiment remained strong, and the market trading atmosphere did not see effective improvement. In the short term, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to move sideways amid the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream players.

According to SMM, demand from end-use sectors such as new energy and power transformers currently remains robust; demand from traditional industries including industrial motors, home appliances, and two-wheelers showed mediocre performance, with the cooling industry experiencing a particularly notable pullback in demand, significantly dragging down the enamelled wire industry. Coupled with copper prices fluctuating at highs and the traditional off-season for the industry approaching, the operating rate of the enamelled wire industry is expected to continue its contracting trend going forward.

Risk appetite has improved notably in the market recently, and SHFE tin rode the momentum to rally sharply in succession. Futures prices have successfully breached the 400,000 mark, hitting a new high in over two months, with extremely strong performance. What factors are supporting the tin price rally that is in full swing? Can the bullish stance continue? Middle East Tensions Ease, Risk Appetite Recovers Since the sudden escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions in late February, affected by changes in inflation expectations caused by wild swings in energy prices, global equities and most commodity prices have exhibited a seesaw effect with energy products. Recently, the Middle East situation has been rapidly evolving, market risk appetite has fluctuated accordingly, and SHFE tin futures—whose price movements have always been susceptible to sentiment—have seen significantly amplified fluctuations. During the holiday, the US pushed the so-called operation to clear stranded vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran conflict escalated sharply, the ceasefire agreement was in jeopardy, and market risk appetite weakened at one point. However, after the holiday, positive news from US-Iran negotiations emerged repeatedly. US President Trump posted on social media on the evening of May 5 (Eastern Time), stating that the "Freedom Plan" to "clear" vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be suspended in the short term. On May 6, Trump expressed optimism multiple times about reaching a deal with Iran, saying the US and Iran had "productive" dialogue over the past 24 hours and that a final agreement was "very likely." Additionally, according to multiple White House officials and informed sources, both sides are extremely close to reaching a one-page memorandum of understanding. Based on the current statements from both sides, hopes for ending the conflict are rising, energy prices have pulled back sharply, risk appetite has improved notably, providing fertile ground for tin price gains. Semiconductor Stocks Launch a Bull Feast, Optimism Spills Over It is currently earnings season for publicly listed firms. The latest quarterly results and outlooks from US chip giants have been quite impressive, with Intel, Micron, and others surging collectively, and the US Nasdaq index hitting new highs repeatedly. South Korea's two memory chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have soared sharply, while A-share listed Cambricon touched a high of 1,966 yuan, reflecting the resonance between booming industry performance and macro tailwinds. Since tin is an indispensable material in chip manufacturing and packaging, against the backdrop of semiconductor stocks rallying collectively and the computing-power metal narrative continuing to unfold, demand expectations for the tin market are highly optimistic. Leading tin stocks surged sharply on the boost, and driven by futures-equity linkage sentiment, capital has flooded in. SHFE tin saw significant increases in open interest over two consecutive days while rising, and futures prices are now just one step away from the previous high. Demand Side Rich in Narratives, Social Inventory Running at Low Levels Returning to tin's own supply-demand fundamentals, structural tightness on the ore side continues to constrain tin ingot output, and policy uncertainties along with supply disruption news from major overseas producing regions frequently impact tin prices. Currently, Myanmar's production resumptions are progressing slower than expected, and with the rainy season approaching, production may remain constrained. Although Indonesia's export quotas have increased somewhat, policy remains unstable, and recently a phased supply gap has emerged due to export license renewal procedures. Customs data showed that tin ore imports exceeded 17,000 mt in each of the first three months of this year, all with significant YoY increases. China's refined tin output is in the ramp-up stage, and institutions will also successively release April production data soon, so supply recovery warrants continued attention. The tin market's demand side has relatively strong support, and under the computing-power metal concept, there are many tradeable themes that frequently provide upward momentum for tin prices. Since AI servers and other high-end chips require 3-5 times more tin solder than ordinary servers, the semiconductor industry's prosperity has become the main driver supporting tin price trends. Currently, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is at a high level of prosperity, having steadily broken through the 10,000-point mark, and global semiconductor sales also grew significantly in Q1, with tin solder demand expected to continue growing. NEV side, although growth has slowed down somewhat, NEV production and sales have rebounded quickly, and their tin consumption demand remains relatively stable. PV side, new PV installations are not expected to grow, but policy floor expectations exist. Meanwhile, traditional production and sales expectations for home appliances, consumer electronics, and other sectors are also relatively weak, and tin chemicals are unlikely to see much additional demand growth. During the traditional peak demand season of March-April, China's tin market performed moderately, with tin ingot social inventory declining to a nearly four-month low, reflecting seasonal destocking. However, with the recent sharp rally in tin prices, spot premiums for tin in China have narrowed significantly, and the sustainability of demand under high prices still warrants attention going forward. Overall, the recent tin price surge was truly a confluence of favorable timing, conditions, and sentiment—support from the macro front, sentiment, and supply-demand fundamentals were all indispensable. Currently, geopolitical tensions have eased, the constraint on risk assets has loosened, the prosperity of global semiconductor-related stocks continues, and optimistic sentiment still easily transmits to SHFE tin futures. The low open interest characteristic of SHFE tin also amplifies futures price fluctuations. However, it is worth noting that the Middle East situation is prone to reversals, and after the semiconductor sector has repeatedly hit new highs, one should also be wary of potential pullback risks—caution is advised before rushing to buy amid continuous price rises. (Webstock Inc.)